Briefing.com

Bond Market Update

Updated: 19-Mar-10 15:55 ET

The market at 00:00 ET
10-Year: -02/32....3.684%.... GNMAs: .... USD/JPY: 90.4800.... EUR/USD: 1.3533
Moving the Market
(14:48) Backed off into close as books are closed
(13:52) Making effort to move higher, but in very light trade
(12:16) Holding better as safe-haven plays run through
 
15:44 ET   10-Yr:-02/32..3.684%.. USD/JPY:90.4800.. EUR/USD:1.3533

Rally On: The dollar was well bid through the session, with the index ticking up to the best levels since the payrolls number, notching a high just under the 80.89 point, the highest since June on a closing basis, as the euro tumbled to its worst since the start of the month. The surprise rate hike out of India on top of the ongoing problems in Greece helped fuel dollar buying. The euro was dropped to trade just over the 1.35 handle on the buck and the lowest in 8 sessions on the yen, but was able to rebound some as assurances the Union will assist Greece. "European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said during an interview with French radio channel France 24 to be broadcast Saturday that euro-zone countries, including Germany, would be ready to extend aid to Greece if asked," (WSJ). Talk of a discount rate hike is still making its way through the markets, but one long time dealer noted that such a move was unlikely before the end of the month (about the same time they will be halting the mortgage related buying programs). The pound also got hit across the board, ticking off to the week's worst levels, flirting with the 1.4935 point on the buck, and as officials fretted over growth. The yen was wound better as safety buying brought it back from near the week's weakest, to stall near 90.40 while working to give up 122.26 per euro from 125.30 mid-week.. Gold got clocked, trading back to the week's lows, with spot 1106.50 (-20.85) as the dollar bounced. Commodities were generally offered with crude settling 80.68 (-1.52 spread 0.29).

14:41 ET   10-Yr:unch..3.674%.. USD/JPY:90.4700.. EUR/USD:1.3537

Backed Off: The long end is keeping things afloat, while the drag on the shorter maturities has some basis in the 2-to-7-yr supply on tap. The Indian rate hike and the potential for (talk) of a move higher on the discount rate "to more normalized level," have helped keep a lid on prices. 

14:18 ET   10-Yr:+03/32..3.664%.. USD/JPY:90.3800.. EUR/USD:1.3537

Basketball Diaries: Players report the combination of the NCAA, expirations and decent weather has sucked the life out of trade, with the market looking out to supply next week. Treasury will be offering $28 bln 3-mos and $29 bln 6-mos Mon, $44B 2-yrs, Tues, $42B 5-yrs Wed, and $32B 7-yrs Thurs, all hitting in a very crowded environment. The long end continues to get some safety bid while the inflation picture remains tame. The curve will likely continue to flatten as price pressures stay low.

13:35 ET   10-Yr:+04/32..3.661%.. USD/JPY:90.4200.. EUR/USD:1.3539

Held Near Highs: Treasuries are holding a bid, as the ongoing Greek problems aid the safety bid, but the upside will be held in check as the market looks out to supply. The troublesome chatter, strangely still going, on the possibility of another discount rate hike, has lost its sway, as there is little doubt that the Fed will offer plenty of guidance in advance of such a move. The next FOMC isn't until Apr 28, and there is a distinct possibility such a move will be made in the interim, but there will be much talk in advance. It will be made to be known, repeatedly, that the discount rate has nothing to do with policy ahead. Traders report some short squeeze after fund selling early was run out The long end continues to lead while the curve is run flatter, with the 2-10-yr yield spread near levels last seen at the start of the year, trading 269.2, with the 267 point on deck. The dollar has been backing off the recent highs, with the index having tagged the best level since the start of the month, hitting just shy of 80.89, and finding support near 80.64. The euro remains embattled with the 1.3535 area likely to be sticky, while 122.25 on the yen should also hold. Options players report that the longer dated markets have seen a drop in implied volatilities, while the shorter maturities hold flat.
12:18 ET   10-Yr:+05+/32..3.655%.. USD/JPY:90.4860.. EUR/USD:1.3515

Issues: Goldman adds to 10-yrs, $750 mln (est +175)
12:06 ET   10-Yr:+03+/32..3.663%.. USD/JPY:90.4468.. EUR/USD:1.3529

Bid: The dollar has been flying as the market looks to take out the 1.35 on the euro with a little support near the 1.3475 area. The problems with Greece remain an issue and the market will not let it just ride on lip service alone. Technically the dollar index should see some added bounce, with the next stumbling point near 80.93. The euro has been run back to the lowest level since the start of the month on the buck and the worst in 2 weeks on the yen. Trade is leaning toward safe-haven buying with the yen and Swiss and the buck, in general, with any positive sentiment on Greece losing steam. The yen has been seeing some small short coverage, but remains near the worst levels in a month, but should stay anchored to 90.50 for the near term as it clings to the safety buying. Gold is getting crushed as the dollar ramps up, with spot 1106.05 (-21.30). Crude has also gotten drilled lower as the buck rallies, with the front month trading under 80, now 80.17 (-2.03, spread -.28 )

11:27 ET   10-Yr:+04/32..3.659%.. USD/JPY:90.5745.. EUR/USD:1.3513

Agencies: Freddie to sell $1 bln 1-mos, $1.5 bln 3-mos, and $1.5 bln 6-mos Tues - Reuters
10:40 ET   10-Yr:+02/32..3.668%.. USD/JPY:1.3527.. EUR/USD:90.5270

Issues: Goldman reopening $500 mln 10-yrs
10:25 ET   10-Yr:+01+/32..3.668%.. USD/JPY:90.4750.. EUR/USD:1.3525

Offered: Bonds were on sale, sold on the open with little to support prices and supply clogging the pipeline. The market has been dragged on as stocks rise and positions are squared into the weekend, but the reality of safety will keep a floor under prices Trade is getting some unwind on the curve flattener as well as some clean-up into the weekend as players feel Greece may get cleaned up. The market will be stalled out in the triple witching scenario, with the options market being the driver and the underlying being stuck in a tight range. The sliding volatility and range trade has gone PIMCO's way, having been short straddles and strangles for months as the Market lost its swing.. The curve will remain on the flattening bent with the 2-10-yr yield spread running 271.9 on unwinding. The dollar has been running higher as the market worries over Greece, while the index sees some added technical upside.
06:48 ET  

Table of overnight activity in the financial markets.
Thursday Summary
16:13 ET   10-Yr:-08+/32..3.668%.. USD/JPY:90.3450.. EUR/USD:1.3611

Weighed: Treasuries got knocked off with better data, chatter over eventual rate hikes and global supply. The data painted an improving picture with the Philly Fed headline looked better (but the details, not so much0 while jobless claims improved (but not the continuing measure). Trade was led by the mid-curve with the market looking out to the latest batch on auctions with at-record sized offerings hitting next week. Treasury announced $28 bln 3-mos and $29 bln 6-mos Mon, $44B 2-yrs, Tues, $42B 5-yrs Wed, and $32B 7-yrs Thurs hitting in an increasingly crowded environment. LIBOR continues to edge higher as the market leans toward eventual, someday, higher rates. The Fed bought $10 bln agency MBS over the past week, ended Wed, as they near their deadline and their $1.25 bln total ($1.236 bln so far). The curve was able to pull back from the flattest levels on the year with the 2-10-yr yield spread running 270.8, and may see some squaring Fri. The buck was able to grab a bid, but couldn't hold the best levels in a week while the euro continued to get pressure as Greece remains a slippery issue. There is no data or Fed-speak Fri, but Greenspan is supposed to be chattering.


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