Updated: 27-May-25 10:31 ET
| May Consumer Confidence |
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| Updated: 27-May-25 10:31 ET |
Highlights
- The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 98.0 in May (Briefing.com consensus 87.0) from a downwardly revised 85.7 (from 86.0) in June, breaking a string of five consecutive months of decline.
Key Factors
- The Present Situation Index rose from 131.1 to 135.9.
- The Expectations Index surged from 55.4 to 72.8 but remains below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.
- Average 12-month inflation expectations settled back from 7.0% in April to 6.5% in May.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is that there was a clear connection between the increase in consumer confidence and the pause in the reciprocal tariff rates, which triggered a material rally in stock prices and improved forecasts for the economic outlook. Note: roughly half of the responses came after the May 12 news that the U.S. and China were pausing their respective reciprocal tariff rates.
| Category | MAY | APR | MAR | FEB | JAN |
| Conference Board | 98.0 | 85.7 | 93.9 | 100.1 | 105.3 |
| Expectations | 72.8 | 55.4 | 66.9 | 74.8 | 82.2 |
| Present Situation | 135.9 | 131.4 | 134.4 | 138.1 | 139.9 |
| Employment ('plentiful' less 'hard to get') | 13.2 | 13.7 | 17.5 | 17.6 | 19.4 |
| 1 yr inflation expectations | 6.5 | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% |