Updated: 12-Aug-25 09:28 ET
| July CPI |
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| Updated: 12-Aug-25 09:28 ET |
Highlights
- Total CPI increased 0.2% month-over-month, as expected. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month, also as expected.
- Those readings left CPI up 2.7% year-over-year, unchanged from June, and core CPI up 3.1% year-over-year, up from 2.9% in June.
Key Factors
- The food index was flat month-over-month and was up 2.9% year-over-year.
- The energy index was down 1.1% month-over-month and was down 1.6% year-over-year.
- The shelter index increased 0.2% month-over-month and was up 3.7% year-over-year.
- The services index was up 3.8% year-over-year (services less rent of shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year).
- The household furnishings and supplies index increased 0.7% month-over-month following a 1.0% increase in June.
- The used cars and trucks index jumped 0.5% month-over-month following a 0.7% decline in June.
- The footwear index rose +1.4% month-over-month following a 0.7% increase in June.
- The jewelry and watches index increased 0.8% month-over-month following a 0.1% decline in June.
- The video and audio products index increased 0.8% month-over-month following a 1.1% increase in June.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report lurks in the details. The headline readings look good, yet there are enough component indexes exhibiting tariff-induced inflation pressures (i.e., large month-over-month changes) that one can't walk away with an "all-clear" inflation signal from this report. It seems doubtful that all Fed officials will, given the 3.1% year-over-year reading for core CPI.
| Category | JUL | JUN | MAY | APR | MAR |
| All Items | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| Food and Beverages | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.4% |
| Housing | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Equivalent Rent | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Apparel | 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.4% | -0.2% | 0.4% |
| Transportation | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.7% | 0.0% | -1.8% |
| Vehicles | 0.1% | -0.4% | -0.3% | 0.0% | -0.3% |
| Motor Fuel | -2.2% | 1.0% | -2.6% | -0.1% | -6.3% |
| Medical Care | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Educ and Commun | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.3% |
| Special Indices | |||||
| Core | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Energy | -1.1% | 0.9% | -1.0% | 0.7% | -2.4% |
| Services | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
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