Updated: 10-Nov-22 09:38 ET

October CPI

Updated: 10-Nov-22 09:38 ET

Highlights

• Total CPI increased 0.4% month-over-month in October (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%) while core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%).
• The monthly changes left total CPI up 7.7% year-over-year, versus 8.2% in September, and core CPI up 6.3% year-over-year, versus 6.6% in September.

Key Factors

• The food index was up 0.6% month-over-month, versus 0.8% in September, and was up 10.9% year-over-year.
• The energy index increased 1.8% month-over-month, versus declining 2.1% in September, and was up 17.6% year-over-year.
• The shelter index jumped 0.8% month-over-month, versus 0.7% in September, and was up 6.9% year-over-year.
• The used cars and trucks index declined 2.4% month-over-month, versus declining 1.1% in September, and was up 2.0% year-over-year.
• The apparel index declined 0.7% month-over-month, versus declining 0.3% in September, and was up 4.1% year-over-year.

Big Picture

• The key takeaway from the report isn't singular. It is manifold: (1) The report helps validate the peak inflation view. (2) The report is apt to compel the Fed to take a less aggressive rate-hike approach at the December FOMC meeting. (3) Some encouragement will be borne out of the understanding that the shelter index (computed with a lag) contributed more than half of the monthly all items increase, suggesting price increases moderated in many other areas.

Category	OCT	SEP	AUG	JUL	JUN
All Items	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	1.3%
Food and Beverages	0.6%	0.7%	0.8%	1.1%	1.0%
Housing	0.5%	0.7%	0.8%	0.4%	0.8%
Equivalent Rent	0.6%	0.8%	0.7%	0.6%	0.7%
Apparel	-0.7%	-0.3%	0.2%	-0.1%	0.8%
Transportation	0.7%	-0.6%	-2.3%	-2.1%	3.8%
Vehicles	-0.9%	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%	1.6%
Motor Fuel	4.0%	-4.9%	-10.6%	-7.7%	11.2%
Medical Care	-0.5%	0.8%	0.7%	0.4%	0.7%
Educ and Commun	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.2%	0.2%
Special Indices
Core	0.3%	0.6%	0.6%	0.3%	0.7%
Energy	1.8%	-2.1%	-5.0%	-4.6%	7.5%
Services	0.4%	0.8%	0.7%	0.3%	0.9%