Updated: 13-Apr-21 09:21 ET

March CPI

Updated: 13-Apr-21 09:21 ET

Highlights

• Total CPI increased 0.6% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) -- the largest monthly increase since August 2012 -- following a 0.4% increase in February. Core CPI increased 0.3% m/m (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following a 0.1% increase in February.
• On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 2.6% unadjusted versus 1.7% in February. Core CPI was up 1.6% following a 1.3% increase in February. Over the last six months, total CPI is up 3.6% at an annualized rate on a seasonally adjusted basis, whereas core CPI is up only 1.4%.

Key Factors

• The energy index was up 5.0% m/m, led by a 9.1% increase in the gasoline index that accounted for nearly half of the increase in the all items index.
• The food index was up 0.1% m/m after increasing 0.2% in February. On a yr/yr basis, the food index is up 3.5% on an unadjusted basis.
• The shelter index rose 0.3% m/m following a 0.2% increase in February.
• The apparel index decreased 0.3% m/m following a 0.7% decrease in February.

Big Picture

• The key takeaway for the market is that this report isn't going to sway the Federal Reserve's thinking that it can sit tight with its accommodative policy since core inflation in particular is still sitting tight below a 2.0% annual rate.

Category	MAR	FEB	JAN	DEC	NOV
All Items	0.6%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%
Food and Beverages	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Housing	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%
Equivalent Rent	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Apparel	-0.3%	-0.7%	2.2%	0.9%	0.7%
Transportation	2.7%	1.1%	1.1%	0.7%	0.3%
Vehicles	0.5%	-0.3%	-1.0%	-0.4%	0.0%
Motor Fuel	9.1%	6.4%	7.4%	5.2%	0.5%
Medical Care	0.1%	0.3%	0.4%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Educ and Commun	-0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
Special Indices
Core	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%
Energy	5.0%	3.9%	3.5%	2.6%	0.7%
Services	0.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%