Briefing.com: Nonfarm Payrolls

Updated: 01-Nov-24 09:23 ET

October Nonfarm Payrolls

Updated: 01-Nov-24 09:23 ET

Highlights

Nonfarm payrolls were up just 12,000 in October (Briefing.com consensus 120,000).
Nonfarm private payrolls decreased by 28,000 (Briefing.com consensus 105,000).
These numbers were depressed by the Boeing strike and likely by the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, yet with forecasts suggesting those influences could lop off something on the order of 100,000 positions, the view to October, coupled with sizable downward revisions to the August and September payroll figures, connotes softness in hiring activity.

Key Factors

October nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 (Briefing.com consensus 120,000). The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls decreased to 104,000 from 148,000. September nonfarm payrolls revised to 223,000 from 254,000. August nonfarm payrolls revised to 78,000 from 159,000.
October private sector payrolls decreased by 28,000 (Briefing.com consensus 105,000). September private sector payrolls revised to 192,000 from 223,000. August private sector payrolls revised to 37,000 from 114,000.
October unemployment rate was 4.1% (Briefing.com consensus 4.1%), versus 4.1% in September. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 22.9% of the unemployed versus 23.7% in September. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, held steady at 7.7%.
October average hourly earnings were up 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) versus a downwardly revised 0.3% (from 0.4%) in September. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 4.0%, versus 3.9% for the 12 months ending in September.
The average workweek in October was 34.3 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.2), versus an upwardly revised 34.3 hours (from 34.2) in September. Manufacturing workweek was little changed at 39.9 hours. Factory overtime dipped 0.1 hour to 2.8 hours.
The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.6% from 62.7%.
The employment-population ratio fell to 60.0% from 60.2%.

Big Picture

The key takeaway from the report is that it has reinvigorated the market's view that the Fed will stay on a steady rate-cut path that will include cutting the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points at next week's FOMC meeting and again at the December FOMC meeting.