Briefing.com: Nonfarm Payrolls

Updated: 03-Jul-25 09:51 ET

June Nonfarm Payrolls

Updated: 03-Jul-25 09:51 ET

Highlights

The June Employment Situation Report featured a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% from 4.2% and a relatively solid 147,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls. That's not to say there weren't points of weakness in the report. There were, namely the participation rate coming down, the percentage of employees unemployed for 27 weeks or more going up, and avg. weekly hours dipping to 34.2 from 34.3.

Key Factors

June nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 120,000). The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls increased to 150,000 from 141,000. May nonfarm payrolls revised to 144,000 from 139,000. April nonfarm payrolls revised to 158,000 from 147,000.
June private sector payrolls increased by 74,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 123,000). May private sector payrolls revised to 137,000 from 140,000. April private sector payrolls revised to 133,000 from 146,000.
June unemployment rate was 4.1% (Briefing.com consensus: 4.2%) versus 4.2% in May. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 23.3% of the unemployed versus 20.4% in May. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, decreased to 7.7% from 7.8% in May.
June average hourly earnings were up 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) versus 0.4% in May. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 3.7% versus 3.8% for the 12 months ending in May.
The average workweek in June was 34.2 hours (Briefing.com consensus: 34.3) versus 34.3 hours in May. Manufacturing workweek held at 40.1 hours. Factory overtime held at 2.9 hours.
The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3% from 62.4%.
The employment-population ratio held at 59.7%.

Big Picture

The key takeaway, though, is that it wasn't weak enough to convince the market that a rate cut at the July FOMC meeting is squarely on the table. On the contrary, that is looking more like a remote possibility, with the fed funds futures market pricing in only a 4.7% probability of a 25 basis-point cut at the meeting versus 23.8% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.