Updated: 08-Mar-24 09:24 ET
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Updated: 08-Mar-24 09:24 ET |
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Highlights
- February nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 following a downwardly revised 229,000 (from 353,000) in January.
- The unemployment rate jumped to 3.9% from 3.7% while average hourly earnings growth slowed to just 0.1% in February from 0.5% in January.
- This report included some sharp downward revisions to January nonfarm payrolls and private sector payrolls; nonetheless, the three-month average for nonfarm payrolls increased to 265,000 from 234,000 while the three-month average for private-sector payrolls increased to 205,000 from 181,000.
Key Factors
- February nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 (Briefing.com consensus 195,000). The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls increased to 265,000 from 234,000. January nonfarm payrolls revised to 229,000 from 353,000. December nonfarm payrolls revised to 290,000 from 333,000.
- February private sector payrolls increased by 223,000 (Briefing.com consensus 150,000). January private sector payrolls revised to 177,000 from 317,000. December private sector payrolls revised to 214,000 from 278,000.
- February unemployment rate was 3.9% (Briefing.com consensus 3.7%), versus 3.7% in January. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 18.7% of the unemployed versus 20.8% in January. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, was 7.3% versus 7.2% in January.
- February average hourly earnings were up 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) versus a downwardly revised 0.5% (from 0.6%) in January. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 4.3%, versus 4.4% for the 12 months ending in January.
- The average workweek in February was 34.3 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.3), versus an upwardly revised 34.2 hours (from 34.1) in January. Manufacturing workweek was little changed at 39.9 hours. Factory overtime increased 0.2 hour to 3.0 hours.
- The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5%.
- The employment-population ratio decreased to 60.1% from 60.2% in January.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report, accounting for the fresh data and the revised data, is that it fits the soft landing/no landing narrative that is integral for a positive earnings growth outlook. In that regard, then, it has provided some validation for the stock market's run to record highs.
Category |
FEB |
JAN |
DEC |
NOV |
OCT |
Establishment Survey |
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Nonfarm Payrolls |
275K |
229K |
290K |
182K |
165K |
Goods-Producing |
19K |
24K |
33K |
36K |
-10K |
Construction |
23K |
19K |
18K |
15K |
22K |
Manufacturing |
-4K |
8K |
12K |
25K |
-31K |
Service-Providing |
204K |
153K |
181K |
116K |
108K |
Retail Trade |
19K |
15K |
32K |
-43K |
1K |
Financial |
1K |
-1K |
6K |
4K |
0K |
Business |
9K |
40K |
13K |
10K |
-5K |
Temporary help |
-15K |
-1K |
-21K |
-14K |
-23K |
Education/Health |
85K |
107K |
84K |
110K |
77K |
Leisure/Hospitality |
58K |
8K |
41K |
10K |
57K |
Government |
52K |
52K |
76K |
30K |
67K |
Average Workweek |
34.3 |
34.2 |
34.4 |
34.4 |
34.3 |
Production Workweek |
33.8 |
33.5 |
33.8 |
33.7 |
33.8 |
Factory Overtime |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
Aggregate Hours Index |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
Avg Hourly Earnings |
0.1% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
Household Survey |
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Household Survey |
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Civilian Unemp. Rate |
3.9% |
3.7% |
3.7% |
3.7% |
3.8% |
Civilian Labor Force |
150K |
-175K |
-676K |
404K |
-174K |
Civilian Employed |
-184K |
-31K |
-683K |
586K |
-270K |
Civilian Unemployed |
334K |
-144K |
6K |
-181K |
96K |