Updated: 28-Jul-17 09:45 ET
| Q2 GDP-Adv. |
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| Updated: 28-Jul-17 09:45 ET |
Highlights
- Real GDP for the second quarter was estimated to have increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.6% (Briefing.com consensus 2.8%) following a downwardly revised 1.2% increase (from 1.4%) for the first quarter.
- The GDP Price Deflator was up 1.0% (Briefing.com consensus 1.3%) following an upwardly revised 2.0% increase (from 1.9%) for the first quarter.
Key Factors
- Real final sales, which exclude the change in private inventories, were also up 2.6%.
- The largest contributors to the increase in Q2 GDP were personal consumption expenditures (1.93 percentage points), gross private domestic investment (+0.34 percentage points), and net exports (+0.18 percentage points).
- The change in private inventories subtracted just 0.02 percentage points from Q2 GDP growth.
- Government spending added 0.12 percentage points, with federal spending contributing 0.15 percentage points and state and local spending subtracting 0.02 percentage points. Defense spending, which contributed 0.20 percentage points, accounted for the entirety of the positive contribution from federal spending.
Big Picture
- In conjunction with the Q2 GDP report, the BEA released annual benchmark revisions for 2014 through the first quarter of 2017. With the revisions, it was said that real GDP from 2013 to 2016 increased at an average annual rate of 2.3% versus 2.2% with the previously published estimates. From the fourth quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2017, real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 2.1%, which was unchanged from previously published estimates.
- The key takeaway from the Q2 GDP report, then, is that the average for the first half of 2017 was subpar at 1.9%, which should continue to keep any concerns about the prospect of a near-term rate hike from the Fed under wraps.
| Category | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 |
| GDP | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% |
| Inventories (change) | -$0.3B | $1.2B | $63.1B | $17.6B | $12.2B |
| Final Sales | 2.6% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| PCE | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
| Nonresidential Inv. | 5.2% | 7.1% | 0.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| Structures | 4.9% | 14.8% | -2.2% | 14.3% | 0.5% |
| Equipment | 8.2% | 4.4% | 1.8% | -2.1% | -0.6% |
| Intellectual Property | 1.4% | 5.8% | -0.4% | 4.2% | 11.1% |
| Residential Inv. | -6.8% | 11.1% | 7.1% | -4.5% | -4.8% |
| Net Exports | -$614.9B | -$622.2B | -$631.1B | -$557.3B | -$572.4B |
| Export | 4.1% | 7.3% | -3.8% | 6.4% | 2.8% |
| Imports | 2.1% | 4.3% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Government | 0.7% | -0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | -0.9% |
| GDP Price Index | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% |
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