Updated: 29-May-25 09:39 ET
| Q1 GDP-Adv. |
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| Updated: 29-May-25 09:39 ET |
Highlights
- The second estimate for the Q1 GDP report showed a 0.2% decline in real GDP (Briefing.com consensus -0.3%) versus the 0.3% decline reported in the advance estimate.
- The GDP Price Deflator was unrevised at 3.7% (Briefing.com consensus 3.7%) following a 2.3% increase in Q4.
Key Factors
- Personal consumption expenditures increased 1.2% versus 1.8% in the advance estimate and 4.0% in the fourth quarter. The PCE component contributed 0.80 percentage points to real GDP growth in the first quarter versus 1.21 percentage points in the advance estimate and 2.70 percentage points in the fourth quarter.
- Gross private domestic investment surged 24.4% versus 21.9% in the advance estimate and a 5.6% decline in the fourth quarter. Gross private domestic investment contributed 3.98 percentage points to growth versus 3.60 percentage points in the advance estimate and a subtraction of 1.03 percentage points in the fourth quarter.
- Exports increased 2.4% versus 1.8% in the advance estimate and a 0.2% decline in the fourth quarter. Imports soared 42.6% versus 41.3% in the advance estimate and a 1.9% decline in the fourth quarter. Net exports subtracted 4.90 percentage points from growth, versus 4.83 percentage points in the advance estimate, after adding 0.26 percentage points in the fourth quarter.
- Government spending declined 0.7% versus a decline of 1.4% in the advance estimate and a 3.1% increase in the fourth quarter. Government spending subtracted 0.12 percentage points from growth versus subtracting 0.25 percentage points in the advance estimate and contributing 0.52 percentage points in the fourth quarter.
- Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, decreased 2.9% versus a 2.5% decline in the advance estimate and a 3.3% increase in the fourth quarter.
- The personal savings rate as a percentage of disposable personal income jumped to 4.3% from 4.0% in the advance estimate and 3.8% in the fourth quarter.
- The PCE price index increased 3.6% versus 3.6% in the advance estimate and 2.4% in the fourth quarter. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.4% versus 3.5% in the advance estimate and 2.6% in the fourth quarter.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is that it featured a downward revision to personal spending to 1.2% from 1.8% in the advance estimate, underscoring how the tariff uncertainty and inflation angst tempered consumer spending activity.
| Category | Q1 | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 |
| GDP | -0.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Inventories (change) | $163.0B | $8.9B | $57.9B | $71.7B | $17.7B |
| Final Sales | -2.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% |
| PCE | 1.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
| Nonresidential Inv. | 10.3% | -2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% |
| Structures | -1.4% | 2.9% | -5.0% | 0.2% | 6.3% |
| Equipment | 24.8% | -8.7% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 0.3% |
| Intellectual Property | 4.6% | -0.5% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 7.5% |
| Residential Inv. | -0.6% | 5.5% | -4.3% | -2.8% | 13.7% |
| Net Exports | -$1379.0B | -$1052.7B | -$1069.2B | -$1035.7B | -$977.0B |
| Export | 2.4% | -0.2% | 9.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% |
| Imports | 42.6% | -1.9% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% |
| Government | -0.7% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| GDP Price Index | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
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