Updated: 30-Sep-20 09:39 ET
| Q2 GDP-Adv. |
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| Updated: 30-Sep-20 09:39 ET |
Highlights
- The third estimate for Q2 GDP produced a slight upward revision to -31.4% q/q annualized (Briefing.com consensus -31.7%) from the second estimate of -31.7%.
- The GDP Price Deflator was also revised higher to -1.8% (Briefing.com consensus -2.0%) from -2.0%.
Key Factors
- Personal consumption expenditures declined 33.2% versus 34.1% in the second estimate.
- Gross private domestic investment declined 46.6% versus 46.2% in the second estimate.
- Government spending increased 2.5% versus 2.8% in the second estimate.
- Exports were down 64.4% versus 63.2% in the second estimate. Imports were down 54.1% versus 54.0% in the second estimate.
- Real final sales, which exclude the change in private inventories, declined 28.1% versus 28.5% in the second estimate.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is that it won't matter to the market given its dated nature, but it still matters in the sense that, despite the slight revision, the second quarter of 2020 marked the biggest downturn for the U.S. economy on record.
| Category | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 |
| GDP | -31.4% | -5.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| Inventories (change) | -$287.0B | -$80.9B | -$1.1B | $44.0B | $49.4B |
| Final Sales | -28.1% | -3.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| PCE | -33.2% | -6.9% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% |
| Nonresidential Inv. | -27.2% | -6.7% | -0.3% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Structures | -33.6% | -3.7% | -5.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Equipment | -35.9% | -15.2% | -1.7% | -1.7% | -3.8% |
| Intellectual Property | -11.4% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% |
| Residential Inv. | -35.6% | 19.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | -2.1% |
| Net Exports | -$775.1B | -$788.0B | -$861.5B | -$950.2B | -$951.4B |
| Export | -63.2% | -9.5% | 3.4% | 0.8% | -4.5% |
| Imports | -54.1% | -15.0% | -7.5% | 0.5% | 1.7% |
| Government | 2.5% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 5.0% |
| GDP Price Index | -1.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% |
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