Updated: 09-Apr-26 09:57 ET
| Q4 GDP-Adv. |
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| Updated: 09-Apr-26 09:57 ET |
Highlights
- The third estimate for Q4 GDP checked in at 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.7%) versus the second estimate of 0.7%. The revision primarily reflected a downward revision to investment.
- The GDP Deflator was 3.7% (Briefing.com consensus: 3.8%) versus the second estimate of 3.8%.
Key Factors
- Personal consumption expenditures increased 1.9%, down from 2.0% in the second estimate and down from 3.5% in the third quarter. The PCE component contributed 1.30 percentage points to real GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
- Gross private domestic investment was up 2.3% versus up 3.3% in the second estimate and a flat reading in the third quarter. Gross private domestic investment contributed 0.40 percentage points to growth in the fourth quarter. Exports decreased 3.2% versus a decrease of 3.3% in the second estimate and a 9.6% increase in the third quarter.
- Imports were down 1.0% versus down 1.1% in the second estimate and down 4.4% in the third quarter. Net exports subtracted 0.22 percentage points from growth in the fourth quarter.
- Government spending decreased 5.6% versus a 5.8% decrease in the second estimate and a 2.2% increase in the third quarter. Government spending subtracted 0.99 percentage points from growth in the fourth quarter.
- Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, increased 0.3% versus a 0.4% increase in the second estimate and a 4.5% increase in the third quarter.
- Real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 1.8% versus a 1.9% increase in the second estimate and a 2.9% increase in the third quarter.
- The PCE Price Index increased 2.9% versus 2.9% in the advance estimate and 2.8% in the third quarter.
- The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.7% versus 2.9% in the third quarter.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is that it suggests the economy closed last year on a sluggish note; however, it wasn't quite as soft as it appears when taking into account that real final sales to private domestic purchasers were up 1.8%.
| Category | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 |
| GDP | 0.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | -0.6% | 1.9% |
| Inventories (change) | -$15.6B | -$23.9B | -$18.3B | $172.0B | $17.1B |
| Final Sales | 0.3% | 4.5% | 7.5% | -3.2% | 2.8% |
| PCE | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 3.9% |
| Nonresidential Inv. | 2.4% | 3.2% | 7.3% | 9.5% | -3.7% |
| Structures | -6.5% | -5.0% | -7.5% | -3.1% | -8.1% |
| Equipment | 4.3% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 21.4% | -4.3% |
| Intellectual Property | 5.4% | 5.6% | 15.0% | 6.5% | -0.6% |
| Residential Inv. | -1.7% | -7.1% | -5.1% | -1.0% | 4.3% |
| Net Exports | -$968.7B | -$955.5B | -$1058.0B | -$1380.7B | -$1069.0B |
| Export | -3.2% | 9.6% | -1.8% | 0.2% | -0.9% |
| Imports | -1.0% | -4.4% | -29.3% | 38.0% | -0.2% |
| Government | -5.6% | 2.2% | -0.1% | -1.0% | 3.3% |
| GDP Price Index | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
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