Updated: 28-May-26 10:23 ET
| Q1 GDP-Adv. |
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| Updated: 28-May-26 10:23 ET |
Highlights
- The second estimate of Q1 GDP showed a downward revision to an annual rate of 1.6% (Briefing.com consensus 2.0%) from 2.0% in the advance estimate.
- The GDP Chain Deflator was revised down to 3.5% (Briefing.com consensus 4.5%) from 3.6% in the advance estimate.
Key Factors
- Personal consumption expenditures increased 1.4%, down from 1.6% in the advance estimate. The PCE component contributed 0.95 percentage points to real GDP growth in the first quarter, down from 1.08 in the advance estimate.
- Gross private domestic investment was up 7.0% versus up 8.7% in the advance estimate. Gross private domestic investment contributed 1.19 percentage points to growth in the first quarter, down from 1.48 in the advance estimate.
- Exports were up 13.0%, revised up from 12.9% in the advance estimate. Imports were up 21.1%, revised down from 21.4% in the advance estimate. Net exports subtracted 1.25 percentage points from growth in the first quarter, up from the advance estimate, which showed a 1.30 percentage point subtraction.
- Government spending increased 4.4%, unchanged from the advance estimate. Government spending added 0.73 percentage points to growth in the first quarter, unchanged from the advance estimate.
- Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, increased 1.5%, down from a 1.6% increase in the advance estimate.Real final sales to domestic purchasers increased 2.4%, down from the 2.5% increase in the advance estimate.
- The PCE Price Index increased 4.5%, unchanged from the advance estimate, while the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy was revised up to 4.4% from 4.3% in the advance estimate.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is that investment and consumer spending in Q1 were weaker than previously estimated while government spending and the impact of trade were essentially unchanged from the advance estimate.
| Category | Q1 | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 |
| GDP | 1.6% | 0.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | -0.6% |
| Inventories (change) | -$25.7B | -$15.6B | -$23.9B | -$18.3B | $172.0B |
| Final Sales | 1.5% | 0.3% | 4.5% | 7.5% | -3.2% |
| PCE | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Nonresidential Inv. | 10.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 7.3% | 9.5% |
| Structures | -5.4% | -6.5% | -5.0% | -7.5% | -3.1% |
| Equipment | 17.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 21.4% |
| Intellectual Property | 11.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 15.0% | 6.5% |
| Residential Inv. | -6.2% | -1.7% | -7.1% | -5.1% | -1.0% |
| Net Exports | -$1063.8B | -$968.7B | -$955.5B | -$1058.0B | -$1380.7B |
| Export | 13.1% | -3.2% | 9.6% | -1.8% | 0.2% |
| Imports | 21.1% | -1.0% | -4.4% | -29.3% | 38.0% |
| Government | 4.4% | -5.6% | 2.2% | -0.1% | -1.0% |
| GDP Price Index | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 3.6% |
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