Updated: 30-Sep-26 09:53 ET
| Q2 GDP-Adv. |
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| Updated: 30-Sep-26 09:53 ET |
Highlights
- The third estimate for Q2 2026 showed real GDP increased 2.2% (Briefing.com consensus: 1.5%) versus the previous estimate of 1.5%.
- The GDP deflator increased 6.1% (Briefing.com consensus: 6.3%) versus the the previous estimate of 6.4%.
Key Factors
- Final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 4.6%; in the prior quarter, they increased 1.8%.
- Personal consumption expenditures increased 3.8% and added 2.51 percentage points to real GDP growth.
- Gross private domestic investment increased 4.6% and added 0.82 percentage points to real GDP growth.
- Exports increased 5.0%, while imports increased 12.6%, and net exports subtracted 1.10 percentage points from real GDP growth.
- The PCE Price Index increased 5.0% after increasing 4.2% in the prior quarter.
- The core PCE Price Index increased 3.3% after increasing 3.9%.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is that private domestic demand strengthened materially and provided a firm underlying growth signal, even as consumer price inflation remained elevated.
| Category | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 |
| GDP | 2.2% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% |
| Inventories (change) | -$63.4B | -$34.7B | -$45.9B | -$45.9B | -$35.3B |
| Final Sales | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 4.0% | 7.4% |
| PCE | 3.8% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| Nonresidential Inv. | 9.0% | 9.9% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 7.6% |
| Structures | 0.1% | -9.4% | -9.8% | -7.7% | -5.3% |
| Equipment | 13.4% | 15.5% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.2% |
| Intellectual Property | 9.2% | 15.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 16.3% |
| Residential Inv. | 2.8% | -7.6% | -1.8% | -6.3% | -4.3% |
| Net Exports | -$1099.3B | -$1019.5B | -$1006.3B | -$991.5B | -$1051.7B |
| Export | 5.0% | 13.9% | -4.2% | 9.5% | -2.0% |
| Imports | 12.6% | 11.5% | -1.5% | 0.1% | -27.8% |
| Government | -0.1% | 4.7% | -5.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% |
| GDP Price Index | 6.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
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