Updated: 30-Sep-21 09:36 ET

Q2 GDP-Adv.

Updated: 30-Sep-21 09:36 ET

Highlights

• The third estimate for Q2 GDP checked in at 6.7% (Briefing.com consensus 6.7%) versus the second estimate of 6.6%.
• The GDP Deflator was unchanged at 6.1% (Briefing.com consensus 6.1%).

Key Factors

• Personal consumption expenditures increased 12.0%, versus the second estimate of 11.9%, and contributed 7.92 percentage points to GDP growth.
• Gross private domestic investment decreased 3.9%, versus the second estimate of a 4.0% decline, with residential investment down 11.7% (versus -11.5% in the second estimate), and subtracted 0.65 percentage points from GDP growth.
• Exports were up 7.6%, versus the second estimate of 6.6%, and imports rose 7.1%, versus the second estimate of 6.7%. Net exports subtracted 0.18 percentage points from GDP growth.
• Government spending decreased 2.0%, versus the second estimate of a 1.9% decline, and subtracted 0.36 percentage points from GDP growth.
• Real final sales of domestic product, which exclude the change in private inventories, increased 8.1% versus the second estimate of 7.9%.

Big Picture

• The key takeaway from the report is that its dated nature (released on the last day of the third quarter), and the lack of any meaningful change from the second estimate, have robbed it of any market-moving influence.

Category	Q2	Q1	Q4	Q3	Q2
GDP	6.7%	6.3%	4.5%	33.8%	-31.2%
Inventories (change)	-$168.5B	-$88.3B	$88.8B	$25.3B	-$252.8B
Final Sales	8.1%	9.1%	3.4%	25.9%	-27.6%
PCE	12.0%	11.4%	3.4%	41.4%	-33.5%
Nonresidential Inv.	9.2%	12.9%	12.5%	18.7%	-30.3%
Structures	-3.0%	5.4%	-8.2%	-15.3%	-46.8%
Equipment	12.1%	14.1%	26.4%	55.9%	-36.2%
Intellectual Property	12.5%	15.6%	10.2%	8.1%	-10.6%
Residential Inv.	-11.7%	13.3%	34.4%	59.9%	-30.7%
Net Exports	-$1244.5B	-$1226.1B	-$1132.8B	-$1021.3B	-$774.8B
Export	7.6%	-2.9%	22.5%	54.5%	-59.9%
Imports	7.1%	9.3%	31.3%	89.2%	-53.1%
Government	-2.0%	4.2%	-0.5%	-2.1%	3.9%
GDP Price Index	6.1%	4.3%	2.2%	3.6%	-1.5%