Updated: 25-Sep-25 09:46 ET
| Q2 GDP-Adv. |
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| Updated: 25-Sep-25 09:46 ET |
Highlights
- The third estimate for Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8% (Briefing.com consensus: 3.3%) from the second estimate of 3.3%, spurred on by an upward revision to consumer spending.
- The GDP Price Deflator was revised up to 2.1% (Briefing.com consensus: 2.0%) from the second estimate of 2.0%.
Key Factors
- Personal consumption expenditures increased 2.5% versus the second estimate of 1.6% and 0.6% in the first quarter. The PCE component contributed 1.68 percentage points to real GDP growth in the second quarter.
- Gross private domestic investment sank 13.8%, unchanged from the second estimate and versus a 23.3% increase in the first quarter. Gross private domestic investment subtracted 2.66 percentage points from growth in the second quarter.
- Exports decreased 1.8% versus a decrease of 1.3% in the second estimate and an increase of 0.2% in the first quarter. Imports plummeted 29.3% versus a decline of 29.8% in the second estimate and an increase of 38.0% in the first quarter. Net exports added 4.83 percentage points to growth in the second quarter.
- Government spending decreased 0.1% versus a 0.2% decrease in the second estimate and a decline of 1.0% in the first quarter. Government spending subtracted 0.01 percentage points from growth in the second quarter.
- Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, increased 7.5% versus a 6.8% increase in the second estimate and a 3.2% decline in the first quarter.
- Real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 2.9% versus a 1.9% increase in the second estimate and a 1.9% increase in the first quarter.
- The personal savings rate as a percentage of disposable personal income increased to 5.3% from 5.2% in the first quarter.
- The PCE price index increased 2.1% versus 2.0% in the second estimate and 3.4% in the first quarter. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.6% versus 2.5% in the second estimate versus 3.3% in the first quarter.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is that the consumer and the economy in aggregate were still operating in a solid state in Q2. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers were up 2.9% versus 1.9% in the second estimate.
| Category | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 |
| GDP | 3.8% | -0.6% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% |
| Inventories (change) | -$18.3B | $172.0B | $17.1B | $69.4B | $75.1B |
| Final Sales | 7.5% | -3.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| PCE | 2.5% | 0.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% |
| Nonresidential Inv. | 7.3% | 9.5% | -3.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% |
| Structures | -7.5% | -3.1% | -8.1% | -2.2% | -3.9% |
| Equipment | 8.5% | 21.4% | -4.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% |
| Intellectual Property | 15.0% | 6.5% | -0.6% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Residential Inv. | -5.1% | -1.0% | 4.3% | -4.8% | -2.0% |
| Net Exports | -$1058.0B | -$1380.7B | -$1069.0B | -$1064.9B | -$1032.2B |
| Export | -1.8% | 0.2% | -0.9% | 8.9% | 0.7% |
| Imports | -29.3% | 38.0% | -0.2% | 10.1% | 8.4% |
| Government | -0.1% | -1.0% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 3.3% |
| GDP Price Index | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% |
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