Updated: 29-Nov-23 09:29 ET
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Updated: 29-Nov-23 09:29 ET |
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Highlights
- The second estimate for Q3 GDP showed real GDP increasing at an annual rate of 5.2% (Briefing.com consensus 4.9%), up from the preliminary estimate of 4.9%.
- The GDP Price Deflator was revised up to 3.6% (Briefing.com consensus 3.8%) from 3.5%.
- Notably, the PCE Price Index was revised lower to 2.8% from 2.9% while the core PCE Price Index was revised down to 2.3% from 2.4%.
Key Factors
- Personal consumption expenditure growth was revised down to 3.6% from the advance estimate of 4.0%, and contributed 2.44 percentage points to growth.
- Gross private domestic investment was revised up to 10.5% from 8.4%, and contributed 1.82 percentage points to growth.
- Exports increased 6.0% versus the advance estimate of 6.2%. Imports rose 5.2%, down from the advance estimate of 5.7%. Net exports subtracted 0.04 percentage points from growth.
- Government spending growth was revised up to 5.5% from the advance estimate of 4.6%, and contributed 0.94 percentage points to growth.
- Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, increased 3.7% versus the advance estimate of 3.5%.
- The personal savings rate as a percentage of disposable personal income was revised to 4.0% from 3.8%.
- Corporate profits from current production increased $105.7 billion in the third quarter versus $6.9 billion in the second quarter.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is that the U.S. economy was effectively booming in the third quarter despite higher interest rates, aided by a strong labor market and disinflation that fueled healthy consumer spending activity.
Category |
Q3 |
Q2 |
Q1 |
Q4 |
Q3 |
GDP |
5.2% |
2.1% |
2.2% |
2.6% |
2.7% |
Inventories (change) |
$83.9B |
$14.9B |
$27.2B |
$151.9B |
$70.7B |
Final Sales |
3.7% |
2.1% |
4.6% |
0.9% |
3.4% |
PCE |
3.6% |
0.8% |
3.8% |
1.2% |
1.6% |
Nonresidential Inv. |
1.3% |
7.4% |
5.7% |
1.7% |
4.7% |
Structures |
6.9% |
16.1% |
30.3% |
6.5% |
-1.3% |
Equipment |
-3.5% |
7.7% |
-4.1% |
-5.0% |
5.6% |
Intellectual Property |
2.8% |
2.7% |
3.8% |
6.1% |
7.1% |
Residential Inv. |
6.2% |
-2.2% |
-5.3% |
-24.9% |
-26.4% |
Net Exports |
-$935.4B |
-$928.2B |
-$935.1B |
-$965.6B |
-$981.2B |
Export |
6.0% |
-9.3% |
6.8% |
-3.5% |
16.2% |
Imports |
5.2% |
-7.6% |
1.3% |
-4.3% |
-4.8% |
Government |
5.5% |
3.3% |
4.8% |
5.3% |
2.9% |
GDP Price Index |
3.6% |
1.7% |
3.9% |
3.9% |
4.4% |