Updated: 27-Mar-25 09:23 ET
| Q4 GDP-Adv. |
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| Updated: 27-Mar-25 09:23 ET |
Highlights
- The third estimate for Q4 GDP was revised up to 2.4% (Briefing.com consensus 2.3%) from 2.3%, aided by an upward revision to government spending.
- The Q4 GDP Price Deflator was revised down to 2.3% (Briefing.com consensus 2.4%) from 2.4%.
Key Factors
- Personal consumption expenditures increased 4.0%, versus 4.2% with the second estimate and versus 3.7% in the third quarter. The PCE component contributed 2.70 percentage points to real GDP growth in the fourth quarter versus 2.48 percentage points in the third quarter.
- Gross private domestic investment was down 5.6%, versus down 5.7% with the second estimate and versus up 0.8% in the third quarter. Gross private domestic investment subtracted 1.03 percentage points from growth versus contributing 0.16 percentage points in the third quarter.
- Exports decreased 0.2% versus decreasing 0.5% with the second estimate and versus a 9.6% increase in the third quarter. Imports decreased 1.9%, versus a 1.2% decrease with the second estimate and a 10.7% increase in the third quarter. Net exports added 0.26 percentage points to growth versus subtracting 0.43 percentage points in the third quarter.
- Government spending increased 3.1% versus a 2.9% increase with the second estimate and a 5.1% increase in the third quarter. Government spending contributed 0.52 percentage points to growth versus 0.86 percentage points in the third quarter.
- Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, increased to 3.3%, up from 3.2% with the second estimate and versus 3.3% in the third quarter.
- The personal savings rate as a percentage of disposable personal income slipped to 3.7% from 3.8% with the second estimate and 4.1% in the third quarter.
- The PCE price index held steady with the second estimate at 2.4%, up from 1.5% in the third quarter. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, dipped to 2.6% from 2.7% with the second estimate and versus 2.2% in the third quarter.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is that it shows a nice expansion in activity during the fourth quarter that was underpinned by consumer spending; however, the report's impact on the market is muted by its dated nature (we're just days away from being done with the first quarter).
| Category | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 |
| GDP | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 3.2% |
| Inventories (change) | $8.9B | $57.9B | $71.7B | $17.7B | $44.6B |
| Final Sales | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.7% |
| PCE | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.5% |
| Nonresidential Inv. | -2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% |
| Structures | 2.9% | -5.0% | 0.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% |
| Equipment | -8.7% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| Intellectual Property | -0.5% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 7.5% | 5.2% |
| Residential Inv. | 5.4% | -4.3% | -2.8% | 13.7% | 2.5% |
| Net Exports | -$1052.7B | -$1069.2B | -$1035.7B | -$977.0B | -$936.7B |
| Export | -0.2% | 9.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 6.2% |
| Imports | -1.9% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% |
| Government | 3.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 3.6% |
| GDP Price Index | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
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