Updated: 25-Feb-21 09:50 ET

Q4 GDP-Adv.

Updated: 25-Feb-21 09:50 ET

Highlights

• The second estimate for Q4 GDP was revised to 4.1%, as expected, from 4.0%.
• The GDP Price Deflator was bumped up to 2.1% (Briefing.com consensus 2.0%) from 2.0%.

Key Factors

• Personal consumption expenditures increased 2.4% (vs first estimate of 2.5%) and contributed 1.61 percentage points to GDP growth.
• Gross private domestic investment surged 26.5% (vs first estimate of 25.3%), led by residential (+35.8%), and contributed 4.23 percentage points to GDP growth.
• Exports increased 21.8% (vs first estimate of 22.0%) and imports increased 29.6% (vs first estimate of 29.5%). Net exports subtracted 1.55 percentage points from GDP growth.
• Government spending fell 1.1% (vs first estimate of -1.2%) and subtracted 0.19 percentage points from GDP growth.
• Real final sales of domestic product, which exclude the change in private inventories, increased 3.0%, unchanged from the first estimate.

Big Picture

• The key takeaway from the report is that it won't be a market mover because (a) it was largely in line with expectations (b) it didn't change much at all from the first estimate and (c) it is dated information, having been released nearly two-thirds of the way through the first quarter.

Category	Q4	Q3	Q2	Q1	Q4
GDP	4.1%	33.4%	-31.4%	-5.0%	2.1%
Inventories (change)	$48.0B	-$3.7B	-$287.0B	-$80.9B	-$1.1B
Final Sales	3.0%	25.9%	-28.1%	-3.6%	3.2%
PCE	2.4%	41.0%	-33.2%	-6.9%	1.6%
Nonresidential Inv.	14.0%	22.9%	-27.2%	-6.7%	-0.3%
Structures	1.1%	-17.4%	-33.6%	-3.7%	-5.3%
Equipment	25.7%	68.2%	-35.9%	-15.2%	-1.7%
Intellectual Property	8.4%	8.4%	-11.4%	2.4%	4.6%
Residential Inv.	35.8%	63.0%	-35.6%	19.0%	5.8%
Net Exports	-$1123.0B	-$1019.0B	-$775.1B	-$788.0B	-$861.5B
Export	21.8%	59.6%	-64.4%	-9.5%	3.4%
Imports	29.6%	93.1%	-54.1%	-15.0%	-7.5%
Government	-1.1%	-4.8%	-4.5%	1.3%	2.4%
GDP Price Index	2.1%	3.5%	-1.8%	1.4%	1.4%