Updated: 28-Aug-25 09:27 ET
| Q2 GDP-Adv. |
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| Updated: 28-Aug-25 09:27 ET |
Highlights
- Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.3% (Briefing.com consensus: 3.0%) from the advance estimate of 3.0%, helped by an upward revision to consumer spending.
- The GDP Price Deflator held at 2.0% (Briefing.com consensus: 2.0%).
Key Factors
- Personal consumption expenditures increased 1.6% versus the advance estimate of 1.4% and 0.5% in the first quarter. The PCE component contributed 1.07 percentage points to real GDP growth in the second quarter. Gross private domestic investment sank 13.8% versus a 15.6% decline in the advance estimate and an increase of 23.8% in the first quarter.
- Gross private domestic investment subtracted 2.70 percentage points from growth in the second quarter. Exports decreased 1.3% versus a decrease of 1.8% in the advance estimate and an increase of 0.4% in the first quarter. Imports plummeted 29.8% versus a decline of 30.3% in the advance estimate and an increase of 37.9% in the first quarter. Net exports added 4.95 percentage points to growth in the second quarter.
- Government spending decreased 0.2% versus a 0.4% increase in the advance estimate and a decline of 0.6% in the first quarter. Government spending subtracted 0.03 percentage points from growth in the second quarter.
- Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, increased 6.8% versus a 6.3% increase in the advance estimate and a 3.1% decline in the first quarter.
- Real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 1.9% versus a 1.2% increase in the advance estimate and a 1.9% increase in the first quarter.
- The personal savings rate as a percentage of disposable personal income increased to 4.6% from 4.3% in the first quarter.
- The PCE price index increased 2.0% versus 2.1% in the advance estimate and 3.7% in the first quarter. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.5% versus 3.5% in the first quarter.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is that the Q2 strength revolved around the decrease in imports (-29.8%), which is a subtraction in the calculation of GDP. The next exports component contributed 4.95 percentage points to Q2 GDP growth versus 4.99 points with the advance estimate.
| Category | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 |
| GDP | 3.3% | -0.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| Inventories (change) | -$32.9B | $160.5B | $8.9B | $57.9B | $71.7B |
| Final Sales | 6.8% | -3.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| PCE | 1.6% | 0.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% |
| Nonresidential Inv. | 5.7% | 10.3% | -2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% |
| Structures | -8.9% | -2.4% | 2.9% | -5.0% | 0.2% |
| Equipment | 7.4% | 23.7% | -8.7% | 10.8% | 9.8% |
| Intellectual Property | 12.8% | 6.0% | -0.5% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Residential Inv. | -4.7% | -1.3% | 5.5% | -4.3% | -2.8% |
| Net Exports | -$1029.0B | -$1359.0B | -$1052.7B | -$1069.2B | -$1035.7B |
| Export | -1.3% | 0.4% | -0.2% | 9.6% | 1.0% |
| Imports | -29.8% | 38.0% | -1.9% | 10.7% | 7.6% |
| Government | -0.2% | -0.6% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% |
| GDP Price Index | 2.0% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% |
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