Updated: 26-Jun-25 09:47 ET
| Q1 GDP-Adv. |
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| Updated: 26-Jun-25 09:47 ET |
Highlights
- The third estimate for Q1 GDP featured a downward revision to -0.5% (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%) from the second estimate of -0.2% that was driven by downward revisions to consumer spending and exports that were partly offset by a downward revision to imports.
- The GDP Price Deflator increased to 3.8% (Briefing.com consensus 3.7%) from the second estimate of 3.7%.
Key Factors
- Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5% versus 1.2% in the second estimate and 4.0% in the fourth quarter. The PCE component contributed 0.31 percentage points to real GDP growth in the first quarter versus 0.80 percentage points in the advance estimate and 2.70 percentage points in the fourth quarter.
- Gross private domestic investment surged 23.8% versus 24.4% in the second estimate and a 5.6% decline in the fourth quarter. Gross private domestic investment contributed 3.90 percentage points to growth versus 3.98 percentage points in the second estimate and a subtraction of 1.03 percentage points in the fourth quarter.
- Exports increased 0.4% versus 2.4% in the second estimate and a 0.2% decline in the fourth quarter. Imports soared 37.9% versus 42.6% in the second estimate and a 1.9% decline in the fourth quarter. Net exports subtracted 4.61 percentage points from growth, versus 4.90 percentage points in the second estimate, after adding 0.26 percentage points in the fourth quarter.
- Government spending declined 0.6% versus a decline of 0.7% in the second estimate and a 3.1% increase in the fourth quarter. Government spending subtracted 0.10 percentage points from growth versus subtracting 0.12 percentage points in the advance estimate and contributing 0.52 percentage points in the fourth quarter.
- Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, decreased 3.1% versus a 2.9% decline in the second estimate and a 3.3% increase in the fourth quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 1.9% versus 2.5% in the second estimate and 3.0% in the fourth quarter.
- The personal savings rate as a percentage of disposable personal income held steady at 4.3% with the third estimate, up from 3.8% in the fourth quarter.
- The PCE price index increased 3.7% versus 3.6% in the second estimate and 2.4% in the fourth quarter. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.5% versus 3.4% in the second estimate and 2.6% in the fourth quarter.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway is that this report is very much "dated," given that we are just a few days away from the end of the second quarter, so it shouldn't have much cachet as a mover for a market that has been cheered since early April by the arrival of hard economic data that has quieted recession concerns.
| Category | Q1 | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 |
| GDP | -0.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Inventories (change) | $160.5B | $8.9B | $57.9B | $71.7B | $17.7B |
| Final Sales | -3.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% |
| PCE | 0.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
| Nonresidential Inv. | 10.3% | -2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% |
| Structures | -2.4% | 2.9% | -5.0% | 0.2% | 6.3% |
| Equipment | 23.7% | -8.7% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 0.3% |
| Intellectual Property | 6.0% | -0.5% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 7.5% |
| Residential Inv. | -1.3% | 5.5% | -4.3% | -2.8% | 13.7% |
| Net Exports | -$1359.0B | -$1052.7B | -$1069.2B | -$1035.7B | -$977.0B |
| Export | 0.4% | -0.2% | 9.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% |
| Imports | 38.0% | -1.9% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% |
| Government | -0.6% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| GDP Price Index | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
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