Updated: 29-Nov-23 09:29 ET
| Q3 GDP-Adv. |
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| Updated: 29-Nov-23 09:29 ET |
Highlights
- The second estimate for Q3 GDP showed real GDP increasing at an annual rate of 5.2% (Briefing.com consensus 4.9%), up from the preliminary estimate of 4.9%.
- The GDP Price Deflator was revised up to 3.6% (Briefing.com consensus 3.8%) from 3.5%.
- Notably, the PCE Price Index was revised lower to 2.8% from 2.9% while the core PCE Price Index was revised down to 2.3% from 2.4%.
Key Factors
- Personal consumption expenditure growth was revised down to 3.6% from the advance estimate of 4.0%, and contributed 2.44 percentage points to growth.
- Gross private domestic investment was revised up to 10.5% from 8.4%, and contributed 1.82 percentage points to growth.
- Exports increased 6.0% versus the advance estimate of 6.2%. Imports rose 5.2%, down from the advance estimate of 5.7%. Net exports subtracted 0.04 percentage points from growth.
- Government spending growth was revised up to 5.5% from the advance estimate of 4.6%, and contributed 0.94 percentage points to growth.
- Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, increased 3.7% versus the advance estimate of 3.5%.
- The personal savings rate as a percentage of disposable personal income was revised to 4.0% from 3.8%.
- Corporate profits from current production increased $105.7 billion in the third quarter versus $6.9 billion in the second quarter.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is that the U.S. economy was effectively booming in the third quarter despite higher interest rates, aided by a strong labor market and disinflation that fueled healthy consumer spending activity.
| Category | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 | Q3 |
| GDP | 5.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| Inventories (change) | $83.9B | $14.9B | $27.2B | $151.9B | $70.7B |
| Final Sales | 3.7% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 3.4% |
| PCE | 3.6% | 0.8% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| Nonresidential Inv. | 1.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 4.7% |
| Structures | 6.9% | 16.1% | 30.3% | 6.5% | -1.3% |
| Equipment | -3.5% | 7.7% | -4.1% | -5.0% | 5.6% |
| Intellectual Property | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% |
| Residential Inv. | 6.2% | -2.2% | -5.3% | -24.9% | -26.4% |
| Net Exports | -$935.4B | -$928.2B | -$935.1B | -$965.6B | -$981.2B |
| Export | 6.0% | -9.3% | 6.8% | -3.5% | 16.2% |
| Imports | 5.2% | -7.6% | 1.3% | -4.3% | -4.8% |
| Government | 5.5% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 2.9% |
| GDP Price Index | 3.6% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% |
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