Updated: 30-Jul-25 18:13 ET
| Q2 GDP-Adv. |
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| Updated: 30-Jul-25 18:13 ET |
Highlights
- The Advance Q2 GDP report showed real GDP increasing at an annual rate of 3.0% (Briefing.com consensus: 2.5%) following a 0.5% decline for the first quarter.
- The GDP Deflator increased 2.0% (Briefing.com consensus: 2.6%) following a 3.8% increase in the first quarter.
Key Factors
- Personal consumption expenditures increased 1.4% versus 0.5% in the first quarter. The PCE component contributed 0.98 percentage points to real GDP growth in the second quarter.
- Gross private domestic investment sank 15.6% versus increasing 23.8% in the first quarter. Gross private domestic investment subtracted 3.09 percentage points from growth in the second quarter.
- Exports decreased 1.8% versus increasing 0.4% in the first quarter. Imports plummeted 30.3% after increasing 37.9% in the first quarter. Net exports added 4.99 percentage points to growth in the first quarter.
- Government spending increased 0.4% versus a decline of 0.6% in the first quarter. Government spending added 0.08 percentage points to growth in the first quarter.
- Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, increased 6.3% versus a 3.1% decline in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 1.2% versus 1.9% in the first quarter.
- The personal savings rate as a percentage of disposable personal income increased to 4.7% from 4.3% in the first quarter.
- The PCE price index increased 2.1% versus 3.7% in the first quarter. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.5% versus 3.5% in the first quarter.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is the recognition that the stronger growth was fueled by the decrease in imports (-30.3%), which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP. The net exports component contributed 4.99 percentage points to Q2 GDP growth.
| Category | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 |
| GDP | 3.0% | -0.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| Inventories (change) | -$26.0B | $160.5B | $8.9B | $57.9B | $71.7B |
| Final Sales | 6.3% | -3.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| PCE | 1.4% | 0.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% |
| Nonresidential Inv. | 1.9% | 10.3% | -2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% |
| Structures | -10.3% | -2.4% | 2.9% | -5.0% | 0.2% |
| Equipment | 4.8% | 23.7% | -8.7% | 10.8% | 9.8% |
| Intellectual Property | 6.4% | 6.0% | -0.5% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Residential Inv. | -4.6% | -1.3% | 5.5% | -4.3% | -2.8% |
| Net Exports | -$1026.3B | -$1359.0B | -$1052.7B | -$1069.2B | -$1035.7B |
| Export | -1.8% | 0.4% | -0.2% | 9.6% | 1.0% |
| Imports | -30.3% | 38.0% | -1.9% | 10.7% | 7.6% |
| Government | 0.4% | -0.6% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% |
| GDP Price Index | 2.0% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% |
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