Updated: 22-Jan-26 10:55 ET
| December Personal Income and Spending |
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| Updated: 22-Jan-26 10:55 ET |
Highlights
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the Personal Income/Outlays report for November alongside the delayed report for October.
- In November, Personal Income increased 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) after a 0.1% increase in October (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%). Personal spending was up 0.5% in November (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) after also increasing 0.5% in October (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%).
- The PCE Price Index was up 0.2% month-over-month in October and November, as expected, while the core PCE Price Index was also up 0.2% for both months, which was also expected.
- On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price Index decelerated to 2.7% in October but edged back up to 2.8% in November. The Core PCE Price Index also decelerated to 2.7% in October and edged back up to 2.8% in November.
Key Factors
- The PCE Price Index for Goods was up 0.2% in November after decreasing 0.1% in October. The Index was up 1.4% year-over-year in November and up 1.3% year-over-year in October.
- The PCE Price Index for Services was up 0.2% in November after increasing 0.3% in October. The Index was up 3.4% year-over-year in November and up 3.3% year-over-year in October.
- Wages and salaries increased 0.4% month-over-month in November after increasing 0.3% in October.
- Rental income was up 0.3% month-over-month in November after increasing 0.2% in October.
- Personal interest income was unchanged month-over-month in November and October. Personal dividend income was up 0.6% month-over-month in November after falling 0.6% month-over-month in October.
- Real disposable income was up 0.1% month-over-month in November after decreasing 0.1% month-over-month in October.
- Real personal spending was up 0.3% month-over-month in November and October.
- The personal savings rate, as a percentage of disposable personal income, fell to 3.5% in November from 3.7% in October.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is that the core PCE Price Index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, was at 2.8% in November, essentially unchanged from September. As a result, this report should not alter the Fed's outlook since the inflation picture remains largely unchanged.
| Category | NOV | OCT | SEP | AUG | JUL |
| Personal Income | |||||
| Total Income | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Wage and Salary | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Disposable Income | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Savings Rate | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% |
| Personal Consumption | |||||
| Total (Nominal) | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| Total (Real, Chain $) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Core PCE Deflator | |||||
| Month/Month | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Year/Year | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% |