Updated: 28-Mar-25 09:15 ET
| February Personal Income and Spending |
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| Updated: 28-Mar-25 09:15 ET |
Highlights
- Personal income increased 0.8% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) following a downwardly revised 0.7% increase (from 0.9%) in January.
- Personal spending rose 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%) following a downwardly revised 0.3% decline (from -0.2%) in January.
- The PCE Price Index was up 0.3% month-over-month, as expected, which left it up 2.5% year-over-year, unchanged from January.
- The core-PCE Price Index jumped 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), which left it up 2.8% year-over-year versus an upwardly revised 2.7% (from 2.6%) in January.
Key Factors
- The PCE Price Index for Goods was up 0.2% month-over-month, leaving it up 0.4% year-over-year versus up 0.6% in January.
- The PCE Price Index for Services was up 0.4% month-over-month, leaving it up 3.5% year-over-year versus 3.4% in January.
- Wages and salaries increased 0.4% month-over-month following a 0.2% increase in January.
- Rental income increased 0.9% month-over-month after increasing 0.7% in January.
- Personal interest income jumped 0.5% month-over-month after increasing 0.5% in January. Personal dividend income jumped 0.2% month-over-month after increasing 1.8% in January.
- Real disposable income was up 0.5% month-over-month and was up 1.8% year-over-year.
- Real personal spending increased 0.1% month-over-month and was up 2.7% year-over-year.
- The personal savings rate, as a percentage of disposable personal income, increased to 4.6% from 4.3%.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is that it was good on the income side, just okay on the spending side (real PCE up just 0.1%), and bad on the inflation side with the uptick in the core-PCE Price Index. That mixed complexion, which is apt to stir some stagflation angst as well, will keep the Fed in a wait-and-watch mode, especially with near-term price adjustments likely as the tariffs take hold.
| Category | FEB | JAN | DEC | NOV | OCT |
| Personal Income | |||||
| Total Income | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Wage and Salary | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Disposable Income | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Savings Rate | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% |
| Personal Consumption | |||||
| Total (Nominal) | 0.4% | -0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Total (Real, Chain $) | 0.1% | -0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Core PCE Deflator | |||||
| Month/Month | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Year/Year | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% |