Updated: 31-Oct-24 09:44 ET
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Updated: 31-Oct-24 09:44 ET |
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Highlights
- Personal income increased 0.3% month-over-month in September (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) following a 0.2% increase in August.
- Personal spending increased 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.3%) in August.
- The PCE Price Index was up 0.2%, as expected, and up 2.1% year-over-year versus 2.3% in August.
- The core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) and up 2.7% year-over-year for the third straight month.
Key Factors
- The PCE Price Index for Goods was down 0.1% after being down 0.2% in August, leaving it down 1.2% year-over-year versus down 0.9% in August.
- The PCE Price Index for Services was up 0.3%, versus up 0.2% in August, leaving it up 3.7% year-over-year versus 3.8% in August.
- The personal savings rate as a percentage of disposable personal income dipped to 4.6% from 4.8%.
- Wages and salaries increased 0.5% month-over-month following a 0.5% increase in August.
- Rental income increased 0.5% month-over-month after increasing 0.5% in August.
- Personal interest income fell 0.7% month-over-month after sliding 0.7% in August.
- Personal dividend income was up 0.3% month-over-month after falling 1.0% in August.
- Real disposable income was up 0.1% month-over-month and was up 3.1% year-over-year. Real personal spending was up 0.4% month-over-month and was up 3.1% year-over-year.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is the stickiness in core PCE inflation, which is running comfortably above the Fed's 2% target. That will wash out any expectation for another aggressive rate cut by the Fed anytime soon and it will keep the debate alive as to whether the Fed should keep cutting rates.
Category |
SEP |
AUG |
JUL |
JUN |
MAY |
Personal Income |
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Total Income |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.5% |
Wage and Salary |
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.6% |
Disposable Income |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
Savings Rate |
4.6% |
4.8% |
4.9% |
5.2% |
5.2% |
Personal Consumption |
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Total (Nominal) |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.6% |
0.3% |
0.5% |
Total (Real, Chain $) |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
Core PCE Deflator |
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Month/Month |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
Year/Year |
2.7% |
2.7% |
2.7% |
2.6% |
2.7% |