Updated: 22-Feb-21 10:24 ET

January Leading Indicators

Updated: 22-Feb-21 10:24 ET

Highlights

• The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 0.5% m/m in January (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.3%) in December.
• January marked the ninth consecutive monthly increase.

Key Factors

• The biggest contributors to the January increase were Building Permits (0.29 percentage points) and the average workweek (0.14 percentage points).
• The biggest drag on the LEI was average weekly initial claims, which subtracted 0.16 percentage points.
• The Coincident Index increased 0.2% following a 0.1% increase in December.
• The Lagging Index decreased 0.6% following a 0.5% increase in December.

Big Picture

• The key takeaway from the report is that the strength in component indicators was widespread, with seven of the 10 indicators making positive contributions.

Category	JAN	DEC	NOV	OCT	SEP
Total Index	0.5%	0.4%	0.9%	0.7%	0.9%
Manufacturing Workweek	0.14%	0.00%	0.00%	0.07%	0.07%
Initial Claims	-0.16%	-0.32%	0.20%	0.20%	0.55%
Cons. Gds Orders	-0.01%	0.04%	0.08%	0.05%	-0.02%
ISM New Orders	0.11%	0.25%	0.21%	0.23%	0.11%
Nondef. Cap Gds Orders, exc. Aircraft	-0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.08%	0.07%
Building Permits	0.29%	0.12%	0.17%	0.00%	0.13%
Stock Prices	0.10%	0.16%	0.15%	0.06%	-0.03%
Leading Credit Index	0.10%	0.14%	0.15%	0.06%	0.02%
Interest Rate Spread	0.11%	0.09%	0.09%	0.08%	0.07%
Consumer Expectations	-0.02	-0.09%	-0.11%	0.01%	0.00%