Updated: 19-Dec-19 10:44 ET
| November Leading Indicators |
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| Updated: 19-Dec-19 10:44 ET |
Highlights
- The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) was unchanged in November (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%) following three straight monthly declines. October was revised to -0.2% from -0.1%.
Key Factors
- A large positive contribution from stock prices (0.17 percentage points) was offset by a large subtraction from the ISM New Orders Index (-0.18 percentage points).
- The Coincident Economic Index increased 0.4% after declining 0.1% in October.
- The Lagging Index rose 0.5% on the heels of a 0.2% increase in October.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is the understanding that the LEI went negative (-0.2%) for the six-month period ending November versus growth of 0.3% over the previous six months.
| Category | NOV | OCT | SEP | AUG | JUL |
| Total Index | 0.0% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.4% |
| Manufacturing Workweek | 0.00% | -0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.13% |
| Initial Claims | -0.04% | -0.04% | 0.06% | -0.07% | 0.16% |
| Cons. Gds Orders | 0.02% | -0.1% | -0.02% | 0.05% | 0.00% |
| ISM New Orders | -0.18% | -0.14% | -0.17% | -0.18% | -0.10% |
| Nondef. Cap Gds Orders, exc. Aircraft | 0.00% | 0.05% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.01% |
| Building Permits | 0.04% | 0.14% | -0.07% | 0.23% | 0.19% |
| Stock Prices | 0.17% | -0.01% | 0.11% | -0.13% | 0.14% |
| Leading Credit Index | 0.07% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.12% |
| Interest Rate Spread | 0.03% | -0.01% | -0.04% | -0.06% | -0.04% |
| Consumer Expectations | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.12% |