Updated: 23-Jul-20 10:28 ET
| June Leading Indicators |
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| Updated: 23-Jul-20 10:28 ET |
Highlights
- The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index increased 2.0% m/m in June (Briefing.com consensus 2.1%) following an upwardly revised 3.2% increase (from 2.8%) in May.
- At 102.0, the index level is 8.8% below the level it hit in February.
Key Factors
- Seven of the ten components comprising the index made positive contributions in June.
- The largest contributor to the June uptick was the change in initial claims, which added 1.35 percentage points.
- The average workweek added 0.42 percentage points and stock prices added 0.24 percentage points.
- The Leading Credit Index was the biggest drag in June, subtracting 0.08 percentage points.
- The Coincident Index increased 2.5% on the heels of a 1.6% increase in May.
- The Lagging Index decreased 2.5% after declining 1.2% in May.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is the recognition that the index decreased 8.4% for the six-month span through June, with only one out of its ten components increasing over that period.
| Category | JUN | MAY | APR | MAR | FEB |
| Total Index | 2.0% | 3.2% | -6.3% | -7.5% | -0.2% |
| Manufacturing Workweek | 0.42% | 0.72% | -2.03% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| Initial Claims | 1.35% | 1.90% | -1.44% | -5.53% | -0.06% |
| Cons. Gds Orders | -0.05% | 0.47% | -1.37% | -0.42% | -0.07% |
| ISM New Orders | 0.02% | -0.48% | -0.58% | -0.27% | -0.12% |
| Nondef. Cap Gds Orders, exc. Aircraft | 0.04% | 0.06% | -0.27% | -0.07% | -0.03% |
| Building Permits | 0.06% | 0.38% | -0.70% | -0.17% | -0.19% |
| Stock Prices | 0.24% | 0.22% | 0.16% | -0.83% | 0.00% |
| Leading Credit Index | -0.08% | -0.08% | -0.12% | -0.16% | 0.09% |
| Interest Rate Spread | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.03% | -0.01% |
| Consumer Expectations | -0.02% | -0.08% | -0.12% | -0.10% | 0.13% |