[BRIEFING.COM] Today's trends remain entrenched as the major indices have moved sideways in their respective ranges throughout the afternoon trade.

There continues to be a headline back and forth as to whether a meeting between the U.S. and Iran will take place this weekend.

At the bottom of the hour, Axios reporter Barak Ravid said, "Iran's state news agency IRNA reports that at the moment there is no planned meeting between Araghchi and Trump's envoys Witkoff and Kushner. IRNA reported Araghchi is going to Pakistan to convey Iran's position about the current state of the war." Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will make a written response to a U.S. proposal.

Not sure where that leads, yet the stock market is still clinging to the view that what comes next won't be profoundly harmful to the global economy. On a related note, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth (CVX 184.04, -3.56, -1.90%) told CBS News that he expects air travel disruptions due to jet fuel shortages.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.68%) is in second place on Friday afternoon, up about 48 points.

Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Newmont Corporation (NEM 119.89, +8.83, +7.95%), Constellation Energy (CEG 312.10, +19.33, +6.60%), and Edwards Lifesciences (EW 83.92, +4.20, +5.27%) dot the top of the standings. NEM and EW advance following earnings, while CEG rises after Evercore ISI resumed coverage on the name at Outperform, tgt $380 (~29% upside).

Meanwhile, Charter Comm (CHTR 182.71, -59.07, -24.43%) shares lost nearly a fourth of their value on Friday after reporting EPS below expectations and continued broadband subscriber losses, with weaker-than-expected Internet and video customer trends outweighing modest revenue and mobile growth gains.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (+1.61%) is firmly in front on Friday afternoon, up about 393 points.

Gold futures settled $16.90 higher (+0.4%) at $4,740.90/oz, down then -2.8% on the week, as Treasury yields and the dollar ease, offering a modest rebound after recent pressure. However, the metal remains down on the week as stronger inflation expectations driven by higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions have weighed on rate outlooks and limited upside.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index slides about -0.3% to $98.57.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.31%) is in last place on Friday afternoon, down about 153 points.

A look inside the DJIA shows that Merck (MRK 111.92, -2.70, -2.36%), Chevron (CVX 183.88, -3.72, -1.98%), and IBM (IBM 227.21, -3.87, -1.67%) show decent weakness.

Meanwhile, NVIDIA (NVDA 209.52, +9.88, +4.95%) is firmly atop the standings.

The DJIA is poised to end the week -0.59% lower.

Also, at the top of the hour, Baker Hughes (BKR 68.79, +4.30, +6.67%) announced a weekly U.S. rotary rig count of 544, +1 w/w and -43 yr/yr.

[BRIEFING.COM] The standing of the major indices is mixed, yet the tone of the session is positive. That is because key leadership groups are leading and because talk is swirling that delegations from Iran and the U.S. could be meeting this weekend in Pakistan.

Time and circumstances will tell. President Trump reportedly said, according to CNN, that he will be sending Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for talks with Iran and that Vice President Vance will be on standby for a possible visit.

That fits a narrative that just about anything goes if the talks can lead to the groundwork for a lasting ceasefire and the restoration of safe and free transit through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude futures, which flirted with $98.00/bbl before the open, are at $94.03/bbl now, down 1.9%.

The stock market has liked that move in oil, even if the energy sector (-1.0%) hasn't, but the move it has loved has been the one in Intel (INTC 80.34, +13.56, +20.31%) after its better-than-expected earnings report and outlook. The good news there has filtered through the semiconductor industry and has been instrumental in driving the information technology sector (+2.3%) and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+4.5%) to big gains.

Remarkably, the SOX Index is now up 38.8% for the month!

Intel may be pacing the tech sector's advance, but the mega-cap cohort is once again pacing the market-cap-weighted indices to record highs. Apple (AAPL 270.44, -2.99, -1.09%) is a holdout in that group today, but Meta Platforms (META 679.42, +20.28, +3.08%), Amazon (AMZN 262.08, +7.00, +2.74%), Alphabet A (GOOGL 343.62, +4.73, +1.40%), and Microsoft (MSFT 419.76, +4.00, +0.96%) are doing the heavy lifting.

The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK 84.14, +1.27, +1.53%) is up 1.5%.

Notwithstanding the strength in the S&P 500, there are only three sectors-information technology, communication services (+1.1%), and consumer discretionary (+1.1%)--that are up at least 1.0%. Key laggards today include the health care (-1.5%), energy, industrials (-0.8%), and financial (-0.5%) sectors.

The outsized decline in the health care sector has been led by Eli Lilly (LLY 882.02, -35.63, -3.88%) and HCA (HCA 434.55, -39.48, -8.33%), the latter of which is getting pinched after reporting weaker-than-expected patient volumes for the first quarter.

Separately, the DOJ criminal pinch on Fed Chair Powell is being relaxed. It was announced earlier that the DOJ is going to drop its criminal probe and let the Inspector General's office handle things. This development should pave the way for Kevin Warsh to be confirmed as Fed chair in the coming weeks, as Senator Tillis (R-NC) had previously said that he wouldn't let the nomination get out of committee until that criminal probe was dropped.

The 2-yr note yield, which is more sensitive to changes in the fed funds rate, is down five basis points to 3.78%. The 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.31%

Reviewing today's economic data:

• The final reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April edged up to 49.8 (Briefing.com consensus: 47.6) from the preliminary (and record low) reading of 47.6. The final reading for March was 53.3. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 52.2.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that there was some slight improvement from the preliminary report as gas prices eased a bit following the ceasefire, yet gas prices are still much higher than where they were before the war began, which is contributing to the stark reality that consumer sentiment is near the trough seen in June 2022.

[BRIEFING.COM] With the support and influence of the mega-cap stocks, the selling activity beneath the surface hasn't had any meaningful impact on the market-cap-weighted indices (or even the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average for that matter).

Selling activity was more apparent earlier when breadth favored declines at both the NYSE and Nasdaq. Things have changed, though, with the move to new highs. 

Advancers now lead decliners by a roughly 5-to-4 margin at the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Even so, the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-0.2%) remains stuck below the unchanged mark.

Small-cap stocks have perked up a bit. The Russell 2000 is up 0.7% and just shy of its best levels of the session.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have climbed to new session highs, which also qualify as record highs. The push has been paced by the mega-cap stocks-not all of them, but enough of them to make a difference.

NVIDIA (NVDA 209.53, +9.89, +4.95%), Amazon (AMZN 262.67, +7.59, +2.98%), Meta Platforms (META 675.27, +16.12, +2.45%), Alphabet A (GOOGL 342.98, +4.09, +1.21%), and Microsoft (MSFT 420.59, +4.84, +1.16%) are doing the heavy lifting.

The equal-weighted S&P 500, for its part, is flat for the day, as is the Russell 3000 Value Index.

The Russell 2000 (+0.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.1%) are sitting on modest gains.

[BRIEFING.COM] The standing of the major indices remains mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite trading near their highs for the session.

There are six S&P 500 sectors trading lower and five that are trading higher. There is only one sector-health care (-1.7%)--that is down more than 1.0%. There are only two sectors-information technology (+2.0%) and consumer discretionary (+1.0%)--that are up at least 1.0%.

Eli Lilly (LLY 881.55, -36.10, -3.93%) is a big drag on the health care sector, although most of the sector components are trading lower. The biggest loser is HCA (HCA 437.04, -36.99, -7.80%), which reported its Q1 results and disappointed investors with weaker-than-anticipated patient volumes.

[BRIEFING.COM] Buyer conviction has been lacking, except in a few key areas, which has made almost all the difference for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.

The "keys" are the strength in the information technology sector (+2.0%), the market's most heavily weighted sector, the relative strength of the mega-cap cohort, and the absolute strength of the semiconductor group. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 4.0%.

The rest of the market seems to be hanging out, waiting for the next headline on Iran and wondering if this rally off the March lows is at, or near, an exhaustion point.

Avis Budget (CAR 231.02, +1.88, +0.82%) hit that wall hard. This heavily shorted stock went from 87.69 on February 23 to as high as 847.70 on April 22 on no news-or, certainly, no news that would justify such a move. Today, the stock traded down to $203.00, a 76% crash in less than two full days of trading.

That move has weighed disproportionately on the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which is down 6.5% this week.

[BRIEFING.COM] It isn't hard to see where the market's bread is being buttered today. The information technology sector is up 1.1%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 3.1%; and the Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF, led by AMZN, is up 0.6%.

What isn't as easy to see is the weakness below the headline standings for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. That shows up in breadth figures, which favor decliners by a 7-to-6 margin at the NYSE and an 11-to-9 margin at the Nasdaq.

The health care (-1.4%), industrials (-0.9%), financial (-0.5%), and energy (-0.5%) sectors are the early laggards.

In other news, the DOJ just announced that it is dropping its criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell. That move should presumably clear the way for his eventual confirmation, as Sen. Tillis (R-NC), who is in favor of Kevin Warsh being the next Fed chair, said he would not vote to get his nomination out of committee unless that DOJ investigation was dropped.

[BRIEFING.COM] There is a good bit of red on stock monitors to begin the session, but one area where you can find a lot of green is the information technology sector (+0.9%). There is nothing greener, either, than the semiconductor stocks.

Intel (INTC 80.95, +14.17, +21.22%) set the tone last night with its strong earnings results and outlook, and it is setting the pace today with its huge move after the report. Its coattails are long, too. 

Intel is the best-performing S&P 500 component by a long shot, followed by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 338.17, +32.84, +10.76%) and Qualcomm (QCOM 145.27, +11.32, +8.45%). NVIDIA (NVDA 201.20, +1.56, +0.78%), Micron (MU 490.62, +8.90, +1.85%), and chip equipment makers Lam Research (LRCX 269.16, +10.60, +4.10%), KLA Corporation (KLAC 1875.52, +60.09, +3.31%), and Applied Materials (AMAT 412.20, +8.29, +2.05%) aren't too shabby either.

With today's 2.4% gain, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 36% since the end of March.

Just in, the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for April checked in at 49.8 (Briefing.com consensus: 47.6) from the record-low 47.6 seen in the preliminary report.

The S&P 500 futures trade 24 points above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note, though Japan's Nikkei (+1.0%) bucked the trend, settling at a fresh record high. China is expected to increase its grain harvest forecast for 2026 with stable prices. Japan's Chief Cabinet secretary repeated that there is no need for a supplementary budget at this time. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) had a strong showing after Taiwan's regulators increased the limit on single-equity holdings by mutual funds and ETFs. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, making for the first hike in two years.

• In economic data:
  • China's March FDI -7.3% YTD (last -5.7%) o Japan's March National CPI 0.4% m/m; 1.5% yr/yr (last 1.3%). March National Core CPI 1.8% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.6%). March Corporate Services Price Index 3.1% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 2.7%)
  • Singapore's Q1 URA Property Index 0.9% qtr/qtr (expected 0.3%; last 0.6%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +1.0% (+2.1% this week)
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.2% (-0.7% this week)
• China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3% (+0.7% this week)
• India's Sensex: -1.3% (-2.3% this week)
• South Korea's Kospi: UNCH (+4.6% this week)
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2% (-1.8% this week)

Major European indices are on track for a lower finish to the week. The U.K. reported above-consensus Retail Sales for March (0.7%; expected 0.0%), but year-over-year core sales growth decelerated to 1.7% from 2.7% (expected 2.0%), inviting some concerns about stagflation. Meanwhile, Bank of England policymaker Breeden said that equity markets are too high and are set to fall. Germany reported weak sentiment data for April with the ifo Business Climate Index coming in at its lowest level since late 2022.

• In economic data:
  • Germany's April ifo Business Climate Index 84.4 (expected 85.7; last 86.3). April Current Assessment 85.4 (expected 86.2; last 86.7) and Business Expectations 83.3 (expected 85.0; last 85.9)
  • U.K.'s March Retail Sales 0.7% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.6%); 1.7% yr/yr (expected 1.3%; last 1.8%). March Core Retail Sales 0.2% m/m, as expected (last -0.6%); 1.7% yr/yr (expected 2.0%; last 2.7%)
  • France's April Consumer Confidence 84 (expected 88; last 89)
  • Spain's March PPI 3.4% yr/yr (last -6.9%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -0.4% (-2.4% this week)
• Germany's DAX: -0.3% (-2.4% this week)
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.5% (-2.5% this week)
• France's CAC 40: -0.9% (-3.2% this week)
• Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.8% (-2.8% this week)
• Spain's IBEX 35: -1.2% (-4.4% this week)

Equity futures had been mixed, but they have turned higher on an Al Arabiya report that Pakistan may soon announce a resumption of talks between the U.S. and Iran. That report has not been confirmed yet by U.S. news organizations, but oil prices are moving on it-and moving pretty noticeably. WTI crude futures were pushing $98.00/bbl but quickly fell below $94.00/bbl following the report. They are currently at $94.66/bbl, down 1.2%.

CNN, for its part, said Iran is sending a delegation to Pakistan but that it is unclear if there will be any U.S. engagement.

The drop in oil prices has been a focal point of support, along with the news that Israel and Lebanon have extended their ceasefire agreement for three weeks. The real focal point before all that, though, was Intel's (INTC) earnings report after yesterday's close, which impressed in all regards. INTC is up a whopping 28% in its wake, which is giving the semiconductor stocks yet another boost that is driving the outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 futures.

The added translation here is that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, up 32.8% this month (!) is set to go even more parabolic at today's open. Naturally, that will have traders on watch for a blowoff top that leads to a sharp reversal.

The lone piece of economic data today is the final print for the April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. That will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET. The preliminary report produced a record-low reading of 47.6.

The 10-yr note yield had risen to 4.33% but has eased back to 4.31%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 98.58.

In corporate news:

• Hartford Financial (HIG 133.00, -6.61, -4.7%) misses by $0.30, misses on revs
• Intel (INTC 85.15, +18.37, +27.5%) beats by $0.27, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
• NIKE (NKE 44.96, +0.18, +0.4%) to eliminate 1400 jobs, according to CNBC
• Oracle (ORCL 180.74, +4.46, +2.5%): $300 billion deal with OpenAI is facing funding challenges. WSJ
• Procter & Gamble (PG) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance, revs guidance

Equity indices in the Asia Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note, though Japan's Nikkei (+1.0%) bucked the trend, settling at a fresh record high. Japan's Nikkei: +1.0%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.2%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3%, India's Sensex: -1.3%, South Korea's Kospi: unch, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2%.

In news:

• China is expected to increase its grain harvest forecast for 2026 with stable prices.
• Japan's Chief Cabinet secretary repeated that there is no need for a supplementary budget at this time.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) had a strong showing after Taiwan's regulators increased the limit on single-equity holdings by mutual funds and ETFs.
• Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, making for the first hike in two years.

In economic data:

• China's March FDI -7.3% YTD (last -5.7%) o Japan's March National CPI 0.4% m/m; 1.5% yr/yr (last 1.3%). March National Core CPI 1.8% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.6%). March Corporate Services Price Index 3.1% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 2.7%)
• Singapore's Q1 URA Property Index 0.9% qtr/qtr (expected 0.3%; last 0.6%)

Major European indices are on track for a mostly lower finish to the week while Germany's DAX (+0.4%) outperforms with help from a strong post-earnings showing from SAP. STOXX Europe 600: -0.3%, Germany's DAX: +0.4%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%, France's CAC 40: -0.2%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.5%.

In news:

• The U.K. reported above-consensus Retail Sales for March (0.7%; expected 0.0%), but year-over-year core sales growth decelerated to 1.7% from 2.7% (expected 2.0%), inviting some concerns about stagflation.
• Bank of England policymaker Breeden said that equity markets are too high and are set to fall.
• Germany reported weak sentiment data for April with the ifo Business Climate Index coming in at its lowest level since late 2022.

In economic data:

• Germany's April ifo Business Climate Index 84.4 (expected 85.7; last 86.3). April Current Assessment 85.4 (expected 86.2; last 86.7) and Business Expectations 83.3 (expected 85.0; last 85.9)
• U.K.'s March Retail Sales 0.7% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.6%); 1.7% yr/yr (expected 1.3%; last 1.8%). March Core Retail Sales 0.2% m/m, as expected (last -0.6%); 1.7% yr/yr (expected 2.0%; last 2.7%)
• France's April Consumer Confidence 84 (expected 88; last 89)
• Spain's March PPI 3.4% yr/yr (last -6.9%)

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted record closing highs yesterday. Today they advanced to new highs, but they were unable to retain that posture and closed the session with losses. The selling interest wasn't acute at the index level. That was reserved mostly for individual stocks, but to be fair, so were big gains.

Some geopolitical headlines got the market stirred up at times today, but otherwise it was a day of modest attrition for the indices after a big run.

The opening was dictated by a mixed reaction to earnings reports since yesterday's close. The S&P 500 information technology sector (-1.5%) was the main point of attraction in that regard. Texas Instruments (TXN 282.23, +45.92, +19.43%) led the semiconductor group to another win, whereas ServiceNow (NOW 84.94, -18.13, -17.59%) was knocked out of service after its earnings report, triggering a renewed fallout in the software stocks, which were also contending with a resumption of private-credit worries.

For the day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was up 1.7%, and the iShares GS Software ETF (IGV 83.60, -5.14, -5.79%) was down nearly 6.0%.

Tesla (TSLA 373.60, -13.91, -3.59%) was another laggard of note, failing to benefit from its better-than-expected Q1 earnings result as investors focused instead on Elon Musk's vague declaration that a very significant increase in capex is expected. The consumer discretionary sector (-0.9%) felt the weight of losses in Tesla and most components, including lululemon athletica (LULU 141.66, -21.79, -13.33%), which named former Nike executive Heidi O'Neill as its new CEO. The stock's reaction made it clear that investors weren't impressed.

Elsewhere, the S&P 500 utilities (+2.8%), industrials (+1.8%), consumer staples (+1.7%), and real estate (+1.3%) sectors delivered some impressive percentage gains in a down market, boosted by healthy gains in the likes of NextEra Energy (NEE 96.25, +6.25, +6.94%), Dover (DOV 228.15, +11.98, +5.54%), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP 28.53, +1.99, +7.50%), and Crown Castle (CCI 87.52, +1.51, +1.76%) following their earnings results.

The market hit an air pocket in the afternoon session amid reports that Iran's speaker had resigned and that Iran's air defenses were engaging hostile targets. Long story short, both reports were debunked, enabling the indices to recover most of what was lost in the knee-jerk selling that occurred after the initial reports.

A full recovery, though, was impeded by the underperformance of the mega-cap cohort and reservations about what could transpire overnight in the geopolitical arena.

WTI crude futures settled the session up 3.0% at $95.76/bbl. The 10-yr note yield was up three basis points to 4.32%.

• Russell 2000: +11.8% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +9.9% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +5.1% YTD
• S&P 500: +3.8% YTD
• DJIA: +2.6% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18 increased by 6,000 to 214,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 212,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending April 11 increased by 12,000 to 1.821 million.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that there is nothing in the level of initial jobless claims-a leading indicator-that suggests the labor market is in a dire state.
• The preliminary April S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI checked in at 54.0 vs. 52.3 prior.
• The preliminary April S&P Global U.S. Services PMI checked in at 51.3 vs. 49.8 prior.