The S&P 500 futures currently trade 27 points below fair value. 

Just released, the Q4 productivity change was revised down to 1.8% (Briefing.com consensus 2.5%) following a preliminary increase of 2.8% and a 4.9% increase in the third quarter. 

Q4 unit labor costs were revised up/down to a 4.1% increase (Briefing.com consensus 3.1%) following a preliminary increase of 2.8% and a 1.8% decline in the third quarter. 

Equity futures point to a slightly lower opening after stocks rallied to start the week following President Trump's claim that the U.S. and Iran have engaged in productive negotiations to end all hostilities. While the claims continue to be denied by Iran, reports of backchannel negotiations and President Trump's eagerness to reach a deal prompted a rebound rally that saw the S&P 500 and DJIA move above their 200-day moving averages, though they failed to close above the key technical level. 

The Wall Street Journal reports that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are supporting tougher measures against Iran, potentially moving closer to military intervention. 

Crude oil retreated 10% yesterday, which helped fuel yesterday's rally. Crude oil is currently back above the $90 per barrel mark, trading $2.80 (+3.2%) higher at $90.93 per barrel. CNBC reports that Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said oil markets have not fully priced in the effect of the Strait of Hormuz closure. 

Headlines are relatively quiet elsewhere, with little in the way of economic data or earnings releases this morning. 

In corporate news:

• Apollo Global Management (APO 107.82, -2.63, -2.4%) is capping redemptions at one of its largest private credit funds, according to Bloomberg. 
• CoreWeave (CRWV 83.40, +1.44, +1.8%) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities with a target price of $100. 
• Gilead Sciences (GILD 137.13, -0.21, -0.2%) is set to acquire Ouro Medicines for as much as $2.1 billion. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a broadly higher showing on Tuesday. Japan's Nikkei: +1.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.8%, China's Shanghai Composite: +1.8%, India's Sensex: +1.9%, South Korea's Kospi: +2.7%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.2%.

In news: 

• China's National Development Reform Commission said that fiscal and tax support will be implemented if crude oil prices remain high.
• Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent are planning capital expenditures of about $84 bln for 2027.
• Japan is planning to spend JPY800 bln on gasoline subsidies and may also intervene in the oil market through futures.

In economic data:

• Japan's February National CPI -0.2% m/m (last -0.2%); 1.3% yr/yr (last 1.5%). February National Core CPI 1.6% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 2.0%). Flash March Manufacturing PMI 51.4 (expected 53.2; last 53.0) and flash Services PMI 52.8 (last 53.8)
• South Korea's February PPI 0.6% m/m (last 0.7%); 2.4% yr/yr (last 1.9%)
• Australia's flash March Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (last 51.0) and flash Services PMI 46.6 (last 52.8)
• India's flash March Manufacturing PMI 53.8 (expected 56.8; last 56.9) and flash Services PMI 57.2 (expected 58.3; last 58.1)

Major European indices trade near their flat lines. STOXX Europe 600: +0.2%,
Germany's DAX: UNCH, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.2%, France's CAC 40: +0.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.3%, Spain's IBEX 35: UNCH.

In news:

• Flash March PMI readings from major regional economies showed unexpected expansion in the manufacturing sector while growth in services undershot expectations.
• European Central Bank policymaker Vujcic acknowledged that the risk of stagflation has increased.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's flash March Manufacturing PMI 51.4 (expected 49.4; last 50.8) and flash Services PMI 50.1 (expected 51.1; last 51.9)
• Germany's flash March Manufacturing PMI 51.7 (expected 49.6; last 50.9) and flash Services PMI 51.2 (expected 52.5; last 53.5)
• U.K.'s flash March Manufacturing PMI 51.4 (expected 50.0; last 51.7) and flash Services PMI 51.2 (expected 52.8; last 53.9). March CBI Distributive Trades Survey -52 (expected -40; last -43)
• France's flash March Manufacturing PMI 50.2 (expected 49.4; last 50.1) and flash Services PMI 48.3 (expected 49.2; last 49.6)

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market saw broad gains today in reaction to developments on the geopolitical front, helping the S&P 500 (+1.2%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.4%), and DJIA (+1.4%) rise from their worst levels of the year. 

Equity futures reversed their overnight losses after President Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran have engaged in productive discussions to end all hostilities and that strikes on Iranian energy targets will be paused for five days to allow for negotiations. Oil prices retreated sharply, and the major averages opened to gains that eventually saw the S&P 500 and DJIA briefly reclaim their 200-day moving averages. 

The major averages could not sustain all of their early gains, which saw them close below their respective 200-day moving averages. Enthusiasm was somewhat tempered by multiple reports that Iranian officials denied any negotiations with the U.S., leaving the market to question the validity of an off-ramp to the conflict. 

Still, President Trump's desire to negotiate a deal reflects a clear shift in rhetoric, which helped underpin today's risk-on move and ease some near-term concerns about further escalation in the conflict, even as uncertainty around the situation remains elevated.

All eleven S&P 500 sectors finished at or above their flatlines. The health care sector (flat) was the only sector that failed to secure a gain, as today's improvement in risk sentiment saw more defensive pockets of the market lag, with the consumer staples sector (+0.4%) logging a modest gain. 

Even the energy sector (+1.1%) captured a nice gain despite crude oil futures settling today's session $9.93 lower (-10.1%) at $88.19 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the consumer discretionary sector (+2.5%) notched the widest gain, with cruise lines such as Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 20.13, +1.18, +6.23%) among the outperformers amid the falling price of oil. 

Tesla (TSLA 380.83, +12.87, +3.50%) was a "magnificent seven" standout in a solid day for mega-cap stocks, with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finishing 1.5% higher. 

Elsewhere, the top-weighted information technology sector (+1.5%) also outperformed today. Strength across Palantir Technologies (PLTR 160.90, +10.22, +6.78%) and other software names pushed the iShares GS Software ETF 1.8% higher. 

Semiconductor names surged out of the gate, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index trading more than 3.0% higher this morning. The index finished with a more modest 1.3% gain as weakness across Micron (MU 404.35, -18.55, -4.39%) and other memory storage names tempered gains. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+2.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.9%) outperformed as the uptick in risk sentiment favored growth stocks today. 

All told, today's session reflected a market eager to respond to any signs of de-escalation, with the sharp pullback in oil prices fueling a broad risk-on move. Still, the inability to hold key technical levels highlights lingering uncertainty, leaving investors sensitive to further geopolitical headlines in the near term.

U.S. Treasuries began the week with gains across the curve, pressuring yields from Q1 highs, amid some improvement in geopolitical sentiment. The 2-year note yield settled down six basis points to 3.83%, and the 10-year note yield settled down six basis points to 4.33%. 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +1.6% YTD
• Russell 2000: +0.5% YTD
• S&P 500: -3.9% YTD
• DJIA: -3.9% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -5.6% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• January Construction Spending -0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%); Prior was revised to 0.8% from 0.3%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness was paced by a decline in private residential spending, which is believed to be a knock-on effect of labor constraints and higher interest rates.