[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market absorbed a crowded slate of developments today, allowing the S&P 500 (+0.4%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%) to recover some of yesterday's losses while the DJIA finished flat. As in the previous session, swings in semiconductor stocks and crude oil remained central to the market's direction, while investors also digested a softer inflation report, Fed commentary, and earnings from several major banks.

Stocks opened to relatively broad gains following the release of the June CPI report, which showed headline deflation (-0.4%; Briefing.com consensus: -0.2%) and a flat core CPI reading (Briefing.com consensus: +0.2%), slowing the year-over-year CPI rate to 3.5% from 4.2% and the core rate to 2.6% from 2.9%. The release had a tangible impact on the market's implied expectations of the Fed's policy path, with CME FedWatch now assigning an 83.4% probability to the FOMC leaving rates unchanged at the July meeting, up from 58.3% yesterday. However, the FedWatch tool still assigns a greater than 50% probability (56.5%) to a rate hike at the September meeting.

Treasury yields moved lower in response to the release, which was a welcome sight for a market that faced another surge in energy prices today. WTI crude oil surged past the $80 per barrel mark this morning after President Trump formally notified Congress that the U.S. is at war with Iran. President Trump announced just before midday that the U.S. naval blockade would apply only to ships departing Iranian ports, which briefly sent oil lower, though it steadily rose throughout the afternoon. Crude oil futures settled today's session $0.98 higher (+1.3%) at $79.40 per barrel.

Additionally, the improved rate backdrop helped support gains across mega-cap technology stocks, which were largely the driver of today's index-level gains. The top-weighted information technology sector (+1.3%) finished with the widest gain as investors stepped in to buy yesterday's dip across semiconductor stocks, sending the PHLX Semiconductor Index 2.5% higher. NVIDIA (NVDA 211.81, +8.28, +4.07%) was a "Magnificent Seven" standout, while memory names rebounded alongside another sharp gain in SK hynix Inc.'s (SKHY 194.16, +41.81, +27.44%) ADRs. Bloomberg reported that the premium of the ADRs over the company's Korean-listed shares widened to nearly 50% as options on the ADRs began trading in the U.S.

Strength across semiconductor names helped offset a massive slide in IBM (IBM 217.07, -73.16, -25.21%) after the company issued disappointing Q2 guidance that fell short of expectations on both EPS and revenue. Commentary around temporary customer spending shifts gave a boost to cybersecurity stocks, helping CrowdStrike (CRWD 210.73, +22.82, +12.14%) finish as the best-performing S&P 500 component.

Goldman Sachs (GS 1140.00, +94.09, +9.00%) finished with the second-widest gain in the S&P 500, which also helped offset IBM's weakness in the DJIA. The company delivered perhaps the strongest earnings beat among this morning's slate of major bank reports. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 342.89, +8.36, +2.50%) and Bank of America (BAC 60.62, +1.12, +1.88%) also moved higher after earnings, while Citigroup (C 133.30, -7.41, -5.27%) and Wells Fargo (WFC 85.52, -2.14, -2.45%) moved lower despite also topping expectations, limiting the financials sector's (+0.2%) gain.

Elsewhere, the communication services sector (+1.1%) was an outperformer, supported by a solid gain in Alphabet (GOOG 357.33, +6.66, +1.90%) after the company broke ground on its largest solar and battery storage project to date to help power data centers.

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 1.0% higher, contributing to the outperformance of the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.4%) over the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-0.4%).

Meanwhile, the defensive health care (-1.9%) and consumer staples (-1.4%) sectors were the biggest laggards as investors rotated back into more growth-oriented pockets of the market.

Outside the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.4%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.5%) captured similar gains to the S&P 500.

Despite a crowded slate of earnings, inflation data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical developments, today's market action remained heavily influenced by the familiar back-and-forth across semiconductor stocks and oil prices. Softer-than-expected inflation helped investors look past another surge in crude oil, making it easier for growth-oriented technology stocks to reclaim leadership and the major averages to recover a portion of yesterday's losses.

U.S. Treasuries rebounded from two days of losses on Wednesday with relative strength in shorter tenors pressuring their yields from highest settlement levels of the year while longer tenors lagged but still ended in positive territory. The 2-year note yield settled down seven basis points to 4.19%, and the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.59%.

• Russell 2000: +19.5% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +14.3% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +12.3%
• S&P 500: +10.2% YTD
• DJIA: +9.3% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• June NFIB Small Business Optimism 97.4 (Briefing.com consensus 95.6); Prior 95.3
• June CPI -0.4% (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%); Prior 0.5%, June Core CPI 0.0% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior 0.2%
  • The key takeaway from the report is the softening in core inflation and the added softening in super core inflation, which excludes food, energy, and shelter. That component was up just 2.1% year-over-year. Inflation has not been slayed, but this report should be enough to keep the FOMC on hold at its July 28-29 meeting.

[BRIEFING.COM] The DJIA (+0.1%) continues to oscillate around its flat line while the S&P 500 (+0.4%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%) maintain their firmer gains.

Bloomberg reports that SK hynix Inc. (SKHY 187.33, +34.98, +22.96%) monster gain today has pushed the premium of its American depositary receipts over its Korean-listed shares to nearly 50%, aided by the start of options trading on the ADRs.

Looking ahead, the market will receive another modest batch of earnings reports before the open tomorrow, with several major components of the financials sector (+0.2%) set to report. Morgan Stanley (MS 227.94, +6.85, +3.10%) heads into its report with the stock near a fresh 52-week high and expectations elevated after a string of beats and a set of strong results from banking peers such as Goldman Sachs (GS 1133.16, +87.25, +8.34%) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 341.68, +7.14, +2.14%). In Q1, management highlighted record results, steady investment banking pipelines, and continued wealth momentum, but also flagged tighter credit spreads, higher asset prices, and interest-rate uncertainty. This print likely needs to show that fee-based growth, market activity, and earnings conversion are still strong enough to support the premium setup.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%), and DJIA (-0.1%) are little changed from previous values as the market enters the final hour of the session.

Crude oil futures settled today's session $0.98 higher (+1.3%) at $79.40 per barrel, with CNBC reporting that the U.S. has continued to strike targets in Iran this afternoon.

The energy sector (+0.1%) is flattish today, though yesterday's 3% surge helps it remain the best-performing S&P 500 sector so far in July (+6.9% month-to-date).

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.46%) is firmly in second place on Tuesday afternoon, up about 35 points.

Briefly, S&P 500 constituents CrowdStrike (CRWD 207.83, +19.92, +10.60%), Dell (DELL 454.10, +26.99, +6.32%), and Carvana (CVNA 69.30, +4.31, +6.63%) dot the top of the standings. CRWD rallies as IBM's (IBM -24.3%) earnings warning highlighted rising enterprise cybersecurity concerns, boosting expectations for stronger security spending and demand for AI-powered cybersecurity platforms.

Meanwhile, GE HealthCare (GEHC 60.70, -4.61, -7.06%) is near the bottom of the average as weaker-than-expected surgical volumes reported by HCA Healthcare (HCA -7.4%) raised concerns that softer hospital procedure demand could pressure medical device sales and healthcare equipment spending.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (+1.08%) is in first place on Tuesday afternoon, up about 280 points.

Gold futures settled $64 higher (+1.6%) at $4,069.70/oz, as softer U.S. inflation data boosted expectations for a less restrictive Federal Reserve policy, pressuring the dollar and supporting bullion. Renewed geopolitical concerns also fueled safe-haven demand, helping gold recover from the prior session's decline.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.4% to $100.91.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.06%) is in last place on Tuesday afternoon, down about 29 points.

A look inside the DJIA shows that IBM (IBM 220.39, -69.84, -24.06%), Merck (MRK 120.50, -3.53, -2.85%), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 253.17, -4.60, -1.78%) are underperforming.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs (GS 1127.01, +81.10, +7.75%) is today's top gain getter.

The DJIA is now +0.25% higher quarter-to-date.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.4%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%) remain higher just after midday, while the DJIA (-0.1%) lags amid a busy session featuring earnings reports from major banks, a softer-than-expected inflation reading, and continued geopolitical developments. Despite the numerous headlines, trading continues to be largely dictated by the market's familiar back-and-forth across semiconductor stocks.

The information technology sector (+1.4%) leads the advance as investors continue buying back yesterday's weakness across chipmakers. The PHLX Semiconductor Index is up 2.9%, while NVIDIA (NVDA 210.82, +7.29, +3.58%) is a "Magnificent Seven" standout. The rebound across semiconductor stocks has helped growth-oriented names outperform more broadly, with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF up 0.9%.

IBM (IBM 218.62, -71.61, -24.67%) remains a significant drag on the sector after issuing downside guidance, losing nearly a quarter of its market value.

The stock's plunge contributes to the underperformance of the DJIA, though much of that weakness has been offset by a sharp gain in Goldman Sachs (GS 1125.98, +80.07, +7.66%), which delivered perhaps the strongest earnings beat among this morning's slate of major bank reports. Elsewhere in the financials sector (+0.4%), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 340.40, +5.87, +1.75%) and Bank of America (BAC 60.60, +1.10, +1.86%) also trade higher following earnings, while Wells Fargo (WFC 85.79, -1.88, -2.14%) and Citigroup (C 134.39, -6.32, -4.49%) lag despite both topping expectations.

Today's June CPI report has also provided meaningful support for equities. Headline CPI fell 0.4% month over month (Briefing.com consensus: -0.1%), helping ease concerns after Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voting FOMC member) suggested yesterday that another hot inflation reading could warrant a near-term rate hike. The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns an 83.4% probability to the Fed holding rates steady at its July meeting, up from 58.3% yesterday, although markets continue to expect a rate hike in September. The market also heard from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh today as he testified before the House Financial Services Committee. Mr. Warsh reaffirmed his commitment to delivering price stability, and his comments did not deliver any market-moving surprises.

Oil prices remain volatile as geopolitical headlines continue to develop. WTI crude oil is up $1.21 (+1.5%) to $79.32 per barrel, near its earlier highs that followed President Trump's formal notification of Congress that the U.S. is at war with Iran. Just before midday, President Trump announced that the U.S. naval blockade would apply only to ships departing Iranian ports, which sent oil below its baseline, though it has steadily crept back up.

Participation in the broader market has deteriorated since the open. Four S&P 500 sectors trade higher, as investors rotate away from more defensive areas of the market. The health care sector (-1.9%) is the weakest performer, housing several of today's worst-performing S&P 500 components (outside of IBM). HCA (HCA 360.10, -30.64, -7.84%) lowered its 2026 earnings guidance and Biogen (BIIB 193.32, -15.72, -7.52%) fell following disappointing clinical trial data. The consumer staples sector (-1.0%) also lags, weighed down in part by Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B 24.98, -1.27, -4.84%) after the company announced its CEO plans to retire.

So far, today's session illustrates that despite a crowded news calendar, the market continues to weigh competing forces. Softer inflation data has fueled renewed buying across growth stocks, while elevated oil prices temper enthusiasm elsewhere, leaving the semiconductor trade at the center of the market's direction.

Reviewing today's data:

• June NFIB Small Business Optimism 97.4 (Briefing.com consensus 95.6); Prior 95.3
• June CPI -0.4% (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%); Prior 0.5%, June Core CPI 0.0% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior 0.2%
  • The key takeaway from the report is the softening in core inflation and the added softening in super core inflation, which excludes food, energy, and shelter. That component was up just 2.1% year-over-year. Inflation has not been slayed, but this report should be enough to keep the FOMC on hold at its July 28-29 meeting.

(Correction: The original version said there was a 16.6% probability yesterday of the Fed holding steady at its July meeting. The probability of holding steady a day ago was 58.3%.)

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain mostly higher, little changed from previous levels at midday.

While semiconductor stocks and other select mega-cap tech names move higher today, the defensive health care (-1.9%) and consumer staples (-1.0%) sectors are lagging behind.

Within the health care sector, weakness encompasses nearly all of its components, with HCA (HCA 361.59, -29.15, -7.46%) a particular laggard after previewing stronger second-quarter results but lowering its 2026 earnings guidance, citing a larger-than-expected unfavorable payer mix shift tied to health insurance exchange coverage losses.

Meanwhile, Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B 25.05, -1.20, -4.57%) is the worst performer in the consumer staples sector after confirming Lawson Whiting will retire as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective upon the appointment of a successor.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%), and DJIA (-0.2%) are off their session highs at midday.

Though not a component of the S&P 500, Tower Semi (TSEM 264.33, +34.65, +15.09%) is soaring higher after announcing a parallel dual-track strategic expansion in Japan that will increase its 300mm Silicon Photonics, Silicon Germanium, and advanced packaging capabilities with support from the Government of Japan. The news is significant because it directly addresses long-term customer demand in some of the highest-growth areas of specialty foundry, including AI connectivity, high-speed optical communications, RF, data-center infrastructure, and advanced packaging.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.5%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%), and DJIA (flat) are mostly higher just before midday amid a busy day for the stock market.

After a somewhat choppy morning, the information technology sector (+1.4%) is back in the driver's seat, with investors buying back yesterday's weakness across semiconductor stocks. The PHLX Semiconductor Index is up 3.3%, which helps balance out a sharp drop in IBM (IBM 213.97, -76.26, -26.28%) after the company issued downside guidance.

Within the DJIA, IBM's loss is being offset by a sharp gain in Goldman Sachs (GS 1124.31, +78.40, +7.50%), which delivered perhaps the most impressive earnings beat among this morning's reports from the major banks, all of which exceeded expectations. The financials sector (+0.7%) holds a solid gain as a result.

Elsewhere, oil prices are volatile this morning. Most of the morning was spent with WTI crude hovering around the $80 per barrel mark, though a recent announcement from President Trump that the U.S. blockade will apply only to ships from Iranian ports briefly sent oil below its baseline. Currently, crude oil is up $0.76 (+1.0%) to $78.91 per barrel.

However, today's softer-than-expected June CPI (-0.4%; Briefing.com consensus: -0.1%) report is helping offset some of the uncertainty created by volatile oil prices, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will remain on hold later this month.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages are little changed from previous levels.

With IBM's (IBM 216.43, -73.80, -25.43%) sizable loss this morning, it is no surprise that the DJIA (+0.1%) holds a narrower gain than its peers, though it is an impressive feat that the index remains in positive territory.

That is largely due to Goldman Sachs (GS 1124.00, +78.09, +7.47%) rallying to a fresh record high after beating Q2 expectations by a wide margin. The upside was broad-based across Goldman Sach's core profit engines, led by Global Banking & Markets, stronger investment banking fees, record Equities revenue, improved FICC performance, and a larger banking backlog that suggests the quarter was not just a one-off trading spike. The backlog increase is especially important because it supports the case that advisory and underwriting momentum can continue into the second half. The key debate is whether this level of earnings power can persist if market volatility, client activity, or issuance normalizes. For now, Goldman Sachs strengthened the case that its capital markets recovery, financing growth, AWM scale, and expense discipline can keep returns elevated beyond a single standout quarter.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) are off their opening highs, now holding gains similar to that of the DJIA (+0.2%). The information technology sector (+0.3%) has seen its early gain trimmed in half as semiconductor stocks give back a portion of their opening gains.

More damaging to the sector is a sharp loss in IBM (IBM 218.90, -71.34, -24.58%). The stock is plummeting after issuing disappointing Q2 guidance that fell short of expectations on both EPS and revenue. While management attributed much of the weakness to temporary customer spending shifts and execution issues, the results raise questions about enterprise IT spending trends just as the broader tech earnings season is about to begin. IBM's disappointing guidance is notable because it appears to reflect a combination of company-specific execution issues and a broader shift in enterprise spending priorities. Management's comments that customers diverted budgets toward foundational AI infrastructure such as servers and storage could have read-through implications for upcoming earnings from enterprise technology companies. Hardware and infrastructure providers could benefit if this spending trend persists, while software and consulting firms may face greater scrutiny over deal timing and customer purchasing behavior.

At the same time, IBM's admission that execution failures contributed meaningfully to the shortfall suggests investors should avoid drawing overly broad conclusions about enterprise demand from one company's results. IBM shares had performed well over the past year as investors rewarded its improving software mix and AI strategy, leaving expectations elevated heading into the report. The sharp selloff illustrates how little tolerance investors currently have for execution stumbles, even when long-term AI and infrastructure opportunities remain intact. With megacap technology earnings beginning in the coming weeks, IBM's results may increase investor focus on whether AI spending is expanding overall or simply being reallocated within enterprise IT budgets.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%), and DJIA (+0.1%) are modestly higher this morning as a rebound in semiconductor stocks and relatively broad strength following the June CPI report help outweigh rising oil prices.

Seven S&P 500 sectors trade higher, with the materials sector (+1.5%) the early standout, supported by a nice bump in precious metals prices this morning. The financials sector (+1.1%) is another outperformer following an impressive round of earnings reports from major banking names, with Goldman Sachs (GS 1120.19, +74.28, +7.10%) sharply higher after a sizable beat.

The top-weighted information technology sector (+0.6%) is also recovering a chunk of yesterday's loss as the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+2.6%) takes back just over half of its previous weakness. However, the gains are tempered by weakness across some of the market's largest software names, while IBM (IBM 222.50, -67.73, -23.34%) plummets after issuing downside guidance.

On the energy front, crude oil is up $1.76 (+2.3%) to $79.88 per barrel, while there are modest losses across some oil-sensitive and rate-sensitive stocks, this morning's June CPI print (-0.4%, Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) is easing some of that pressure by sending Treasury yields lower across the curve.

The health care sector (-1.7%) remains the only S&P 500 sector with a loss wider than 0.4%.

The stock market is now on track for a mostly higher opening, with a better-than-expected June CPI print giving equity futures a boost this morning.

Total CPI was down 0.4% month-over-month in June (Briefing.com consensus: -0.1%), which was the largest one-month drop since April 2020. That move was paced by a 5.7% decline in the index for energy. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%), leaving it up 2.6% year-over-year versus 2.9% in May. Total CPI was up 3.5% year-over-year versus 4.2% in May.

The key takeaway from the report is the softening in core inflation and the added softening in super core inflation, which excludes food, energy, and shelter. That component was up just 2.1% year-over-year. Inflation has not been slayed, but this report should be enough to keep the FOMC on hold at its July 28-29 meeting.

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 12 points above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note with South Korea's Kospi (+0.7%) recording a modest gain after touching its lowest level since late April. China's trade surplus was larger than expected in June thanks to strong export growth with the dollar-denominated surplus exceeding its prior record from December 2025. Japanese debt outperformed after Finance Minister Katayama said that JGBs should be included in Nippon Individual Savings Accounts.

• In economic data:
  • China's June trade surplus $125.62 bln (expected surplus of $119.50 bln; last surplus of $105.43 bln). June Imports 36.0% yr/yr (expected 24.0%; last 27.4%) and Exports 27.0% yr/yr (expected 18.2%; last 19.4%)
  • Japan's May Industrial Production 0.1% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.5%) and Capacity Utilization 0.1% m/m (last -0.8%)
  • Australia's July Westpac Consumer Sentiment 4.1% (last -2.9%). June NAB Business Confidence -5 (last -14) and NAB Business Survey 3 (last 3)
  • New Zealand's Q2 NZIER Business Confidence 8% (last -4%)
  • India's June WPI Inflation 9.87% yr/yr (expected 9.15%; last 9.68%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +0.7%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.5%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +1.4%
• India's Sensex: -0.7%
• South Korea's Kospi: +0.7%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH

Major European indices trade in the red with travel-related names among the laggards due to the continued rise in the price of oil. Bank of England Governor Bailey told the U.K. Treasury that risks to financial stability have increased. Germany's Economy Ministry observed some stabilization in the German economy at the mid-year point. Hapag-Lloyd raised its guidance for the year due to strong demand and high freight rates.

• In economic data:
  • Germany's June WPI -0.7% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.6%); 4.9% yr/yr (last 5.9%)
  • Swiss June PPI -0.3% m/m (expected -0.5%; last -0.4%); -2.1% yr/yr (last -1.8%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -0.2%
• Germany's DAX: -0.4%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%
• France's CAC 40: -0.5%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.2%
• Spain's IBEX 35: -0.5%

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 32 points above fair value.

Just released, total CPI decreased 0.4% month-over-month in June (Briefing.com consensus: -0.1%), from a prior increase of 0.5%.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) after a previous increase of 0.2%.

Equity futures point to a mixed opening this morning in what is set to be a session full of notable catalysts.

The major averages are coming off a losing session to start the week, in which a sharp pullback across weighty semiconductor names combined with a surge in oil prices that pressured pockets of the broader market. So far this morning, semiconductors are reclaiming some of their previous losses, though oil prices continue to climb as President Trump officially notified Congress of a new war with Iran, according to Politico.

It is not surprising then that futures tied to the Nasdaq are outperforming those tied to the S&P 500 and DJIA, though the gap is particularly wide due to IBM (IBM 218.00, -70.94, -24.4%) trading sharply lower this morning after issuing downside guidance.

On a related note, a slate of major banking names are reporting their earnings this morning, with most easily topping expectations.

The market will also receive some important economic data today in the form of the June CPI print (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%). Investors will look for any signals that oil-driven inflation is easing, particularly after Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voting FOMC member) said yesterday that elevated inflation could induce a near-term rate hike.

The market will also hear from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh today as he testifies before the House Financial Services Committee. .

In corporate news:

• Goldman Sachs (GS 1,064.00, +18.09, +2.3%) beat EPS expectations by $6.47 and beat revenue expectations.
• IBM (IBM 218.00, -70.94, -24.4%) issued downside guidance for Q2 (Jun), sees EPS of $2.93 vs. $3.01 FactSet Consensus; sees Q2 (Jun) revs of $17.2 billion vs. $17.86 billion FactSet Consensus.
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM 326.00, -8.53, -2.6%) beat EPS expectations by $2.11 and beat revenue expectations.
• NVIDIA (NVDA 206.33, +2.80, +1.4%) cuts authorized Asian artificial intelligence customers by 50% as part of an attempt to crack down on its products being smuggled into China, according to Financial Times.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note with South Korea's Kospi (+0.7%) recording a modest gain after touching its lowest level since late April. Japan's Nikkei: +0.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.5%, China's Shanghai Composite: +1.4%, India's Sensex: -0.7%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.7%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH.

In news:

• China's trade surplus was larger than expected in June thanks to strong export growth with the dollar-denominated surplus exceeding its prior record from December 2025.
• Japanese debt outperformed after Finance Minister Katayama said that JGBs should be included in Nippon Individual Savings Accounts.

In economic data

• China's June trade surplus $125.62 bln (expected surplus of $119.50 bln; last surplus of $105.43 bln). June Imports 36.0% yr/yr (expected 24.0%; last 27.4%) and Exports 27.0% yr/yr (expected 18.2%; last 19.4%)
• Japan's May Industrial Production 0.1% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.5%) and Capacity Utilization 0.1% m/m (last -0.8%)
• Australia's July Westpac Consumer Sentiment 4.1% (last -2.9%). June NAB Business Confidence -5 (last -14) and NAB Business Survey 3 (last 3)
• New Zealand's Q2 NZIER Business Confidence 8% (last -4%)
• India's June WPI Inflation 9.87% yr/yr (expected 9.15%; last 9.68%)

Major European indices trade in the red with travel-related names among the laggards due to the continued rise in the price of oil. STOXX Europe 600: -0.6%, Germany's DAX: -0.7%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.3%, France's CAC 40: -0.8%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.4%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.9%.

In news:

• Bank of England Governor Bailey told the U.K. Treasury that risks to financial stability have increased.
• Germany's Economy Ministry observed some stabilization in the German economy at the mid-year point.
• Hapag-Lloyd raised its guidance for the year due to strong demand and high freight rates.

In economic data:

• Germany's June WPI -0.7% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.6%); 4.9% yr/yr (last 5.9%)
• Swiss June PPI -0.3% m/m (expected -0.5%; last -0.4%); -2.1% yr/yr (last -1.8%)

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages finished near their session lows as technology stocks extended their recent weakness and another sharp surge in crude oil prices reinforced two of the market's dominant themes from last week. The S&P 500 (-0.8%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.6%), and DJIA (-0.3%) all finished lower, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq bearing the brunt of the selling pressure.

Semiconductor stocks remained at the center of today's weakness, with the information technology sector (-2.1%) finishing near its session low as the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 4.8. The group's recent trading has been notably volatile, though the short-term trend has turned increasingly negative, leaving the semiconductor benchmark down over 13% since the start of July.

Memory names such as Sandisk (SNDK 1673.97, -241.95, -12.63%) were among the weakest performers after SK hynix Inc. (SKHY 152.35, -15.66, -9.32%) pulled back following Friday's strong Nasdaq ADR debut.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 421.58, -12.53, -2.89%) held up relatively well after reporting another month of robust revenue growth. Elsewhere in technology, Microsoft (MSFT 390.99, +5.89, +1.53%) outperformed its mega-cap peers, though it did little to offset broader weakness across the group.

The technology-led selling spilled into other growth-oriented areas of the market, pressuring the consumer discretionary (-0.7%) and communication services (-1.0%) sectors. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF fell 1.5%, while the market-weighted S&P 500 (-0.8%) significantly underperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (-0.1%), underscoring the outsized influence of the market's largest technology companies.

Geopolitical developments added another headwind as crude oil climbed steadily throughout the session. U.S. Central Command announced that forces will resume blockading maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports beginning July 14 at 4:00 p.m. ET. WTI crude oil futures settled up $6.73 (+9.4%) at $78.42 per barrel, lifting the energy sector (+3.2%) well ahead of the broader market as Valero Energy (VLO 295.79, +15.10, +5.38%) and Diamondback Energy (FANG 191.60, +8.21, +4.48%) ranked among the S&P 500's top performers. Even so, the broader impact of higher energy prices weighed on sentiment.

Outside of energy, investors rotated toward more defensive areas of the market. The consumer staples (+0.6%), utilities (+0.7%), health care (+0.3%), and real estate (+0.5%), sectors all finished higher.

The financials sector (+0.6%) also advanced despite modest weakness across several large banks ahead of tomorrow's slate of earnings reports.

The Russell 2000 (-0.8%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.6%) finished with losses similar to those of the major averages.

Today's action reinforced the market's recent tendency to swing alongside semiconductor stocks and oil prices, with renewed geopolitical tensions overwhelming the rotational buying interest that emerged earlier in the session. Attention now shifts to tomorrow's June CPI report and the unofficial start of second-quarter earnings season, where inflation data and guidance from several major banks are likely to determine whether those themes continue to dominate or give way to a broader set of market catalysts.

U.S. Treasuries began the week with losses across the curve, sending yields on the 5-year note and shorter tenors to fresh closing highs for the year while yields on the 10-year and 30-year notes approached their highs from May. The 2-year note yield settled up five basis points to 4.26%, and the 10-year note yield settled up four basis points to 4.61%.

• Russell 2000: +19.0% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +13.7% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +11.3% YTD
• S&P 500: +9.8% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• The Treasury Department reported a $120.3 billion deficit for June versus a surplus of $27.0 billion for the same period in June 2025. Receipts totaled $495.8 billion, while outlays reached $616.1 billion.
  • The key takeaway from the report is the recognition that tariff refunds are cutting into government receipts at the same time the amount spent on net interest is going up. The results is a 12-month budget deficit that exceeds the 12-month deficit registered in May.