[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market clawed back from steep early losses, with a tech-driven rebound lifting the S&P 500 (-0.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%) back above their 50-day moving averages after briefly slipping below them at the open. Mixed strength in the broader market saw the DJIA (-0.7%) close with a wider loss, though it finished well off of its session lows and joined the S&P 500 in positive week-to-date territory. 

The session began much like recent ones, with mega-caps absorbing the heaviest losses and fresh hawkish Fed remarks further eroding expectations for a December rate cut. The CME FedWatch tool now places the odds of a 25-basis-point cut at 45.9%, down from 50.1% yesterday and 94.4% a week ago. Kansas City Fed President Schmid (voting FOMC member) signaled he is inclined to oppose a December cut, echoing comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (nonvoting FOMC member), who said he did not support the October move and remains unsure about December.

While the major averages faced losses over 1.0%, the technology sector showed resilience, dipping only slightly beneath its flatline. That resilience soon turned to exuberance in the midmorning, as chipmakers rallied, helping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reclaim their 50-day moving averages and move into positive territory for the day. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (-0.1%), which also moved beneath its 50-day moving average this morning, held gains as wide as 1.2%, though chipmakers faced some pressure this afternoon and the index closed slightly lower. Micron (MU 246.83, +9.88, +4.17%) and NVIDIA (NVDA 190.17, +3.31, +1.77%) still managed to capture solid gains, while Microsoft (MSFT 510.18, +6.89, +1.37%) and Oracle (ORCL 222.85, +5.28, +2.43%) helped the broader technology sector (+0.7%) close with a gain despite the late pressure in semiconductor names. 

As many as seven S&P 500 sectors traded higher, though only three finished in positive territory. 

The energy sector (+1.4%) was the day's top performer, supported by a 2.3% rebound in crude oil to $60.08 per barrel following Wednesday's 4.1% slide. The real estate sector (+0.3%) managed a more modest gain, while the industrials and utilities sectors finished flat. 

Losses were relatively modest compared to early session levels, though there were a few laggards. 

The materials sector (-1.2%) saw a majority of its components trade lower, while the financials sector (-1.0%) faced pressure in its major banking names.

Mixed performances across mega-cap names saw the communication services (-0.8%) and consumer discretionary (-0.6%) sectors finish lower for the day but well above session lows. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF closed 0.2% higher. 

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 (+0.2%) captured a gain, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.3%) closed lower after a stint above its baseline. 

Despite some late-session weakness, the market's ability to reclaim technical levels and attract buyers in key growth areas helped stabilize sentiment. At face value, the mixed finish appears to be an underwhelming end to a tough week, but under the surface, there were signs of improving breadth and renewed dip-buying interest in semiconductors and other momentum pockets. Those dynamics helped keep the major averages anchored above support and left the broader market in a firmer position heading into next week, which will see NVIDIA report its earnings on Wednesday. 

U.S. Treasuries finished a bumpy abbreviated week with losses across the curve after sliding from their opening highs. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.61% (+5 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled up four basis points to 4.15% (+6 basis points this week). 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%), and DJIA (-0.6%) remain mixed as the market enters the final half hour of the session. 

Politico reports that House Republicans are drafting legislation that will redirect Affordable Care Act subsidies to individuals and away from health insurance companies. Humana (HUM 236.37, -0.37, -0.16%) and Elevance Health (ELV 326.44, -1.84, -0.56%) slipped below their baselines following the report, while UnitedHealth (UNH 322.00, -10.52, -3.17%) has lagged throughout the session. 

Elsewhere, Alibaba (BABA 152.18, -7.66, -4.79%) continues to chart session lows after Financial Times reported that a White House national security memo sys the company is helping China's military target the U.S.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to trade mixed, a touch off of session highs as the market enters the final hour of today's session. 

The energy sector (+1.4) holds the widest gain today, supported by crude oil futures settling today's session $1.34 higher (+2.3%) at $60.08 per barrel. Oil prices slid 4.1% on Wednesday after OPEC announced it now projects global oil supply to match demand, after previously forecasting a deficit. 

The sector's largest component, Exxon Mobil (XOM 119.39, +0.60, +0.51%), holds a modest gain, while Valero Energy (VLO 182.78, +7.00, +3.99%) holds the widest gain. Valero has broadened its year-to-date gain to an impressive 49.1%, which is better than that of any of the "magnificent seven" names. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%), and DJIA (-0.4%) continue to trade in a mixed fashion as the afternoon progresses. 

CNBC reports that the Trump administration is formally withdrawing a Biden-era proposal that would have provided passengers compensation for delayed flights.

Airline stocks, such as Delta Air Lines (DAL 58.59, -1.32, -2.20%), United Airlines (UAL 95.34, -1.83, -1.88%), and Southwest Air (LUV 32.76, -0.28, -0.86%), are under pressure today as airlines continue to navigate cancellation issues stemming from the government shutdown.

On the trade front, Bloomberg reports that President Trump will sign an order later today lowering tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee, and bananas. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%) are back near their unchanged levels, while the DJIA (-0.6%) continues to underperform. 

The communication services sector (-0.8%) is at the bottom of today's leaderboard, falling back towards session lows from this morning. 

Despite a relative uptick across mega-caps today, the sector faces pressure from its largest component, Alphabet (GOOG 276.99, -2.13, -0.76%).

Meanwhile, Netflix (NFLX 1116.83, -37.40, -3.24%) is the weakest performer in the sector, falling back below its 200-day moving average (1130.77). The company is preparing a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 22.86, +0.72, +3.27%), according to The Wall Street Journal. Paramount Skydance's (PSKY 15.47, +0.10, +0.63%) $23.50 per share bid was rejected, but its integration strength and DTC momentum still position it as a resilient bidder.

Comcast (CMCSA 27.49, -0.48, -1.73%) is also reportedly preparing a bid ahead of the November 20 deadline. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices have moved well off their opening lows and back into positive territory in the case of the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000.

Their recovery has been aided by buy-the-dip interest that kicked in when both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite breached support at their 50-day moving averages at the start of today's trading. That is a key technical support level, and it has yet to be violated on a closing basis since the recovery rally got going in April.

With the drastic improvement in the stock market, the safe-haven bid seen in the Treasury market has faded away. The 2-yr note yield, which skimmed 3.54% earlier, is at 3.60% now, up one basis point from yesterday's settlement. The 10-yr note yield, which slipped to 4.07%, is at 4.14% now, up two basis points from yesterday's settlement.

The reversal in Treasuries was also hastened by yet another hawkish-minded position from a Fed official about a December rate cut. This time, Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC voter) said that he is leaning against a December rate, noting that monetary policy is modestly restrictive and where it should be.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%), and DJIA (-0.3%) once again opened to relatively wide losses, though a midmorning rally in the information technology sector (+1.1%) expanded into a solid rebound effort. 

While mega-caps continued to weigh on the market at the open, the technology sector's losses in particular were modest in comparison to the broader market. This morning's opening retreat saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slip below their 50-day moving averages, with the rally in tech helping to push the indexes back above the critical support levels. 

Chipmakers helped prompt the rebound, with Micron (MU 253.98, +17.03, +7.19%) showing strength from the open after being named a top stock pick by Morgan Stanley.

Applied Materials (AMAT 222.86, -0.37, -0.16%), which is a crucial supplier of chipmaking materials, reversed a 6.0% loss after topping earnings estimates but issuing guidance that predicts revenue to be weighted towards the back half of next year. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index is now up 0.9% after briefly dipping below its own 50-day moving average early in the session. 

NVIDIA (NVDA 189.72, +2.86, +1.53%), in turn, was one of the first mega-caps to enter positive territory today, opening the doors to a solid rebound effort in the broader market.

Tesla (TSLA 409.14, +7.16, +1.78%) is another top performer, helping the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+0.7%) see positive territory for the first time in several sessions. 

The advance is not just limited to the market's largest names either. Seven S&P 500 sectors now hold a gain after all eleven spent time in negative territory this morning. 

With the exception of the technology (+1.1%) and energy (+1.3%) sectors, gains are rather modest, but so are the losses of today's remaining laggards. The materials sector (-0.7%) and communication services (-0.6%) sectors are the only ones to still hold losses wider than 0.5%. 

Decliners now outpace advancers by a roughly 7-to-6 clip on the NYSE, and that clip is even slimmer on the NASDAQ. Decliners held a greater than 2-to-1 advantage on both exchanges earlier in the session. 

On the macro front, the market received some more hawkish Fed commentary, this time from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid (voting FOMC member). Mr. Schmid said that he does not see additional interest rate cuts as potentially beneficial to the cracks in the labor market but worries they could have "long-lasting effects" on inflation.

The CME FedWatch tool now assigns just a 43.6% probability to a 25-basis point rate cut in December, down from 50.1% yesterday and 94.4% a month ago. 

While rate-cut odds continue to slip, the market largely reconciled with the notion it may not get another cut in yesterday's retreat, with investors more focused on buying the dip in semiconductors and other momentum areas, helping return the major averages into positive week-to-date territory. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to steadily advance just after midday, with today's turnaround effort placing the indices back into positive territory for the week. 

Five S&P 500 sectors remain below their baselines, though losses are modest, as the materials sector (-0.6%) is the only sector to hold a loss of 0.5% or wider. 

The financials sector (-0.4%) is one of the laggards, though it too has halved its earlier losses. The sector faces pressure in major banking names such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM 305.89, -3.59, -1.16%) and Goldman Sachs (GS 797.65, -7.85, -0.97%), which contribute to the underperformance of the DJIA (-0.3%). 

The DJIA also faces a considerable loss in UnitedHealth (UNH 323.12, -9.40, -2.83%), though the health care sector remains flat as losses in managed care names are neutralized by strong performances across pharmaceutical names. The sector's week-to-date gain of 4.6% is still the best by over 2.0%. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%), and DJIA (-0.3%) steadily tick higher following a rebound effort led by the information technology sector (+1.2%). 

The energy sector (+1.2%) holds a similar gain as the price of oil has increased $1.51 (+2.6%) to $60.20 per barrel. Oil prices saw a modest rebound yesterday after a 4.1% slide on Wednesday. 

Elsewhere, DoorDash (DASH 208.60, +13.39, +6.86%) is one of the top-performing names in the S&P 500, rebounding after a sharp retreat just over a week ago following mixed 3Q25 results that included an EPS miss and 27% revenue growth to $3.45 billion.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%), and DJIA (-0.4%) have significantly improved from their opening losses just before midday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both briefly dipped below their 50-day moving averages before rising above the critical support level. 

The top-weighted information technology sector (+1.2%) leads the rebound effort, with strength across chipmaker names pushing the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+1.2%) to a similar gain. 

The improvement in sentiment has rippled across other mega-cap and momentum names, as the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+0.6%) also shows strength. 

Tesla (TSLA 407.76, +5.77, +1.44%) and NVIDIA (NVDA 189.92, +3.06, +1.64%) are among the standouts as six of the "magnificent seven" names trade higher. 

Six total S&P 500 sectors hold gains following an improvement in breadth figures that now sees decliners outpace advancers by a roughly 3-to-2 ratio on the NYSE and a roughly 5-to-3 ratio on the Nasdaq. Decliners held a greater than 2-to-1 advantage on both exchanges earlier in the session. 

The Russell 2000 (+0.1%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.1%) also display notable improvements from previous levels as the rebound effort expands across the broader market. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) have entered positive territory following improvements in the information technology sector (+0.7%), while weakness in the broader market keeps the DJIA (-0.6%) beneath its flat line. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.8%) holds a solid gain, with Micron (MU 251.25, +14.30, +6.04%) leading the way, while NVIDIA (NVDA 188.73, +1.87, +1.00%) reenters positive territory for the week. 

Additionally, chipmaking material producer Applied Materials (AMAT 222.65, -0.58, -0.26%) has pared its losses, which were wider than 6.0% in the premarket, following the company's earnings report. 

The company beat expectations on the top and bottom line, which has been a typical outcome for AMAT in recent quarters. That said, EPS fell 6% year-over-year while revenue declined 3.5% to $6.8 billion. The EPS drop marks the company's first year-over-year decline since JulQ '23, while the revenue contraction is its first in seven quarters, reflecting softer demand out of China and slightly higher operating expenses. The midpoint of its Q1 guidance, $2.18 EPS on $6.85 billion in revenue, also implies further year-over-year declines.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%), and DJIA (-0.8%) are slightly improved from previous levels as the top-weighted information technology sector (+0.1%) has surfaced above its flatline.

NVIDIA (NVDA 187.00, +0.14, +0.07%), Microsoft (MSFT 505.46, +2.17, +0.43%), and Apple (AAPL 273.72, +0.78, +0.28%) are all slightly higher, suggesting the market's largest tech names may have finally reached their bottom points of this week's slide. 

Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid (voting FOMC member) has continued the recent trend of hawkish-leaning Fed commentary. Mr. Schmid said that he does not see additional interest rate cuts as potentially beneficial to the cracks in the labor market but worries they could have "long-lasting effects" on inflation.  

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%), and DJIA (-1.1%) are modestly improved from opening lows shortly after the open as stocks face another broad-based retreat. With the opening move, the S&P 500 now sits below its 50-day moving average (6,704). 

All eleven S&P 500 sectors trade in negative territory, with losses across the market's largest names inflicting the heaviest losses on the consumer discretionary (-1.1%) and communication services (-0.9%) sectors, while weakness across major banking names seats the financials sector (-1.0%) with a similar loss. 

Meanwhile, the information technology sector (-0.2%) is working its way back to its flatline. Micron (MU 250.39, +13.44, +5.67%) is up after being named a top pick by Morgan Stanley, and NVIDIA (NVDA 187.03, +0.17, +0.09%) has managed to surface above its flatline as well. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (-0.2%) is down just modestly. 

The stock market is on track for another lower opening as investors grapple with diminished expectations for a December rate cut while momentum wanes in the AI trade. 

Investors have just a small batch of earnings reports to assess, with no economic data releases of consequence. 

Applied Materials (AMAT 207.97, -15.26, -6.8%) beat EPS expectations by $0.06, beat revenue expectations, and guided Q1 EPS and revenues in-line.  Revenue in 2026 is expected to be weighted toward the second half of the calendar year.

National Economic Council Director Hassett said that a partial release of the October jobs report is being planned and that the full September jobs report could be released next week.

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 69 points below fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note. China reported its growth figures for October, revealing some softness in fixed asset investment and industrial production. There was speculation about South Korea taking steps to stabilize the won as continued weakness in the currency has it trading near its lowest level against the dollar since 2009. Officials from South Korea and the U.S. officially signed the trade and investment deal.

• In economic data:
  • China's October Fixed Asset Investment -1.7% yr/yr (expected -0.9%; last -0.5%), October Industrial Production 4.9% yr/yr (expected 5.5%; last 6.5%), October Retail Sales 2.9% yr/yr (expected 2.7%; last 3.0%); 3.3% yr/yr (last 3.5%). October Unemployment Rate 5.1% (expected 5.2%; last 5.2%). October House Prices -2.2% yr/yr (last -2.2%)
  • South Korea's October Import Price Index 0.5% yr/yr (last 0.6%) and Export Price Index 4.8% yr/yr (last 2.2%)
  • India's October WPI Inflation -1.21% yr/yr (expected -0.60%; last 0.13%)
  • Hong Kong's Q3 GDP 0.7% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.7%); 3.8% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.8%)
  • New Zealand's October Business PMI 51.4 (last 50.1)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -1.8% 
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.9%
• China's Shanghai Composite: -1.0% 
• India's Sensex: +0.1%
• South Korea's Kospi: -3.8% 
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -1.4%

Major European indices trade in the red. The British pound and gilts have faced some pressure amid press reports suggest that Chancellor Reeves will not seek higher income taxes in the Autumn budget statement thanks to improved economic projections from the Office of Budget Responsibility. However, other taxes are still expected to increase. Germany's budget committee approved 2026 spending of EUR524.5 bln and nearly EUR100 bln in borrowing.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's Q3 GDP 0.2% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.1%); 1.4% yr/yr (expected 1.3%; last 1.5%). Q3 Employment Change 0.1% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.1%); 0.5% yr/yr (last 0.6%). September trade surplus EUR19.4 bln (last surplus of EUR1.9 bln)
  • France's October CPI 0.1% m/m, as expected (last -1.0%); 0.9% yr/yr (expected 1.0%; last 1.2%)
  • Italy's September trade surplus EUR2.852 bln (expected surplus of EUR3.180 bln; last surplus of EUR1.875 bln)
  • Spain's October CPI 0.7% m/m, as expected (last -0.3%); 3.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.0%). October Core CPI 2.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.4%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -1.6% 
• Germany's DAX: -1.5%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: -1.6% 
• France's CAC 40: -1.3%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: -2.1%
• Spain's IBEX 35: -1.9%

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 64 points below fair value as stocks continue to move lower in the premarket. All of the "magnificent seven" names are lower, with most down over 1.0%. 

In corporate news, Walmart (WMT 99.72, -2.82, -2.8%) has announced that its Board of Directors has elected John Furner, 51, to succeed Doug McMillon, 59, as President and Chief Executive Officer of Walmart Inc., effective February 1, 2026. Furner was also elected to the company's Board of Directors, effective immediately.

McMillon will retire on January 31, 2026, but remain on the Board of Directors until the next annual shareholders' meeting and help ensure a smooth transition.

Equity futures point to another lower open as tech names continue to slide in the premarket following yesterday's broad-based retreat. 

Stocks came under pressure yesterday as hawkish Fed commentary has diminished the probability of a December rate cut from the FOMC to a coin toss, after being a near certainty just a month ago. 

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (voting FOMC member) said in an interview that he did not support the October rate reduction and is undecided on December, according to Bloomberg. 

The S&P 500 (+0.1% WTD) and DJIA (+1.0% WTD) enter today's session looking to defend what is left of their week-to-date gains, while yesterday's retreat sent the Nasdaq Composite (-0.6% WTD) into negative territory. 

Mega-cap tech is decidedly lower in the pre-market, which will likely put pressure on the major averages from the open. 

On the trade front, the U.S. has struck framework trade deals with South Korea, Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador. 

In corporate news:

• Airlines are starting to get back on track following the government shutdown, according to Bloomberg. 
• Amazon (AMZN 233.43, -4.15, -1.8%) and Microsoft (MSFT 499.58, -3.71, -0.7%) will support limits on NVIDIA (NVDA 180.74, -6.12, -3.3%) to China, according to The Wall Street Journal.
• Apple's (AAPL 271.21, -1.53, -0.6%) iPhone sales increased 22% in China after the release of the iPhone 17, according to Reuters. 
• Eli Lilly (LLY 1,010.98, -11.89, -1.2%) could be a candidate for a stock split, according to Barron's. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -1.8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.9%, China's Shanghai Composite: -1.0%, India's Sensex: +0.1%, South Korea's Kospi: -3.8%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -1.4%.

In news:

• China reported its growth figures for October, revealing some softness in fixed asset investment and industrial production.
• There was speculation about South Korea taking steps to stabilize the won as continued weakness in the currency has it trading near its lowest level against the dollar since 2009.
• Officials from South Korea and the U.S. officially signed the trade and investment deal.

In economic data:

• China's October Fixed Asset Investment -1.7% yr/yr (expected -0.9%; last -0.5%), October Industrial Production 4.9% yr/yr (expected 5.5%; last 6.5%), October Retail Sales 2.9% yr/yr (expected 2.7%; last 3.0%); 3.3% yr/yr (last 3.5%). October Unemployment Rate 5.1% (expected 5.2%; last 5.2%). October House Prices -2.2% yr/yr (last -2.2%)
• South Korea's October Import Price Index 0.5% yr/yr (last 0.6%) and Export Price Index 4.8% yr/yr (last 2.2%)
• India's October WPI Inflation -1.21% yr/yr (expected -0.60%; last 0.13%)
• Hong Kong's Q3 GDP 0.7% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.7%); 3.8% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.8%)
• New Zealand's October Business PMI 51.4 (last 50.1)

Major European indices trade in the red. STOXX Europe 600: -1.8%, Germany's DAX: -1.6%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -1.9%, France's CAC 40: -1.7%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -2.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: -2.2%.

In news:

• The British pound and gilts have faced some pressure amid press reports suggest that Chancellor Reeves will not seek higher income taxes in the Autumn budget statement thanks to improved economic projections from the Office of Budget Responsibility. However, other taxes are still expected to increase.
• Germany's budget committee approved 2026 spending of EUR524.5 bln and nearly EUR100 bln in borrowing.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's Q3 GDP 0.2% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.1%); 1.4% yr/yr (expected 1.3%; last 1.5%). Q3 Employment Change 0.1% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.1%); 0.5% yr/yr (last 0.6%). September trade surplus EUR19.4 bln (last surplus of EUR1.9 bln)
• France's October CPI 0.1% m/m, as expected (last -1.0%); 0.9% yr/yr (expected 1.0%; last 1.2%)
• Italy's September trade surplus EUR2.852 bln (expected surplus of EUR3.180 bln; last surplus of EUR1.875 bln)
• Spain's October CPI 0.7% m/m, as expected (last -0.3%); 3.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.0%). October Core CPI 2.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.4%)

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market faced a broad-based retreat, which sent the S&P 500 (-1.7%), Nasdaq Composite (-2.3%), and DJIA (-1.7%) firmly lower as investors grappled with diminished expectations for further Fed easing this year. 

President Trump signed a bill to fund the government through January 30, ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. While some viewed the move and pending data releases as potential fuel for another rate cut, uncertainty over the timing of those reports clouds the outlook for doves ahead of the December FOMC meeting. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said some reports, such as the October employment and October CPI reports, will likely never see the light of day.

The end to the government shutdown this week was largely priced in, but the market was seemingly caught off guard by recent Fed commentary, which has leaned more hawkish. 

Boston Fed President Susan Collins (voting FOMC member) said yesterday evening that "it will likely be appropriate to keep policy rates at the current level for some time," while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (voting FOMC member) said that the Fed "needs to lean against above-target inflation," according to Bloomberg. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who is not a voting FOMC member but will be in 2026, echoed a similar sentiment, saying policy should "remain somewhat restrictive to continue putting pressure to bring inflation down," according to Reuters. 

Commentary from Fed officials combined to see a further dampening in the market's expectations for a December rate cut. The CME FedWatch tool now assigns a 51.6% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, down from 62.9% yesterday and 95.5% a month ago. 

Equities retreated in response, with growth-oriented stocks incurring particularly heavy losses. 

The consumer discretionary (-2.7%) and information technology (-2.4%) sectors finished with the heaviest losses as weakness in the market's largest names pushed the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (-2.1%) to its flat line for the week. 

Tesla (TSLA 401.88, -28.72, -6.67%) was a laggard among the underperforming group, falling below its 50-day moving average (428.61). 

NVIDIA (NVDA 186.97, -6.83, -3.52%) and other chipmakers also posted weak performances, sending the PHLX Semiconductor Index (-3.7%) into negative territory for the week.

Cisco (CSCO 77.38, +3.42, +4.62%) was a rare bright spot in the technology sector after topping earnings estimates and issuing upbeat guidance for Q2 (Jan) and FY26. 

The same cannot be said for Walt Disney (DIS 107.57, -9.08, -7.78%), which was one of the worst-performing S&P 500 names after a mixed earnings report that saw the company beat EPS expectations but miss on revenues, which were down 0.5% year-over-year to $22.46 billion, marking the company's first annual revenue decline since 1Q24.

Disney's loss weighed on the communication services sector (-1.7%) and contributed to the DJIA finishing with a similar loss to that of the other major averages. 

Despite a recent trend of mega-cap weakness, the DJIA has been able to escape the past several sessions with solid gains as investors rotated into more value-oriented holdings. 

While mega-caps certainly underperformed again, today's action reflected less of a rotation and more of a broader-market sell-off. 

Eight S&P 500 sectors finished lower, and seven of those finished with losses of 1.0% or wider. Breadth figures were abysmal, with decliners outpacing advancers by a roughly 4-to-1 ratio on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. 

While the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-1.2%) still outperformed the market-weighted S&P 500 (-1.7%), it too incurred a notable loss. 

Only the energy sector (+0.3%) closed with a gain as crude oil futures settled today's session $0.24 higher (+0.4%) at $58.74 per barrel, a modest rebound from yesterday's 4.1% slide. 

The health care sector finished flat after holding a gain wider than 1.0% earlier in the session, while the consumer staples sector also managed a flat finish. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-2.8%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.9%) incurred significant losses as the market displayed a firm risk-off posturing. 

Ultimately, today's action reflected a clear shift in sentiment as investors reassessed the policy outlook and revisited concerns of stretched valuations, leaving stocks particularly vulnerable to disappointing catalysts. The broad-based retreat, along with a sharp spike in volatility (the VIX Volatility Index surged 18.0% to 20.66), underscored growing unease about the Fed's policy path and the market's ability to sustain recent gains.

U.S. Treasuries retreated on Thursday, lifting yields on 10s and 30s back above their 50-day moving averages, though intraday action was largely uneventful. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.59%, the 10-year note yield settled up five basis points to 4.11%, and the 30-year note yield settled up four basis points to 4.70%. 

• Nasdaq Composite: +18.4% YTD
• S&P 500: +14.6% YTD
• DJIA: +11.6% YTD
• Russell 2000: +6.7% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +2.9% YTD