[BRIEFING.COM] You might not think it looking at the final standing of the major indices, but today was quite a win for the bulls, technically speaking. The S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average (6,669.00) but once again found support and managed to close above that key technical level, just as it has time and again since this remarkable rally began in April.

It was looking dicey during the morning session, with session lows reached just after 12:00 p.m. ET. At that point, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 were down 0.9%, 2.1%, and 1.3%, respectively, undercut yet again by losses in the mega-cap stocks and the growth stocks and some concerns about an economic slowdown.

The latter was pinned on one of the lowest readings ever for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and copious reports about hundreds of flight cancellations due to the government shutdown.

The buy-the-dip crowd started to re-emerge early in the afternoon session, however, and retook control of the tape, helping many stocks pare larger losses and other stocks extend their gains.

Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the day higher, led by the energy (+1.6%), utilities (+1.4%), materials (+1.3%), real estate (+1.3%), and consumer staples (+1.3%) sectors. The communication services (-0.8%) and information technology (-0.3%) sectors were the two losers, but both finished well off their lows.

The S&P 500 eventually reclaimed a posture above the 6,669.00 level and got an added boost on reports that the Democrats will vote to reopen the government if Republicans agree to a one-year extension of the Obamacare subsidies.

The positive buzz around that possibility didn't last long. CNBC soon reported that the Democrats' offer is likely to be rejected by the Republicans, who want the government reopened first before talks on extending the Obamacare subsidies are held.

Strikingly, this report didn't unnerve the market, which not only finished higher after the report but, in fact, finished at its highs for the day. We're not sure if that means participants are thinking there could be some kind of deal struck over the weekend or if the positive finish was just a continuation of the exciting technical rebound effort.

Whatever the case may have been, it was an uplifting finish for the bulls at the end of an arduous week that was highlighted by a number of outsized losses in the growth stock and AI universe following earnings reports. Stocks like Take-Two (TTWO 232.00, -20.40, -8.08%), The Trade Desk (TTD 43.00, -2.90, -6.31%), and Microchip (MCHP 56.28, -3.07, -5.17%) felt that pinch today. Tesla (TSLA 429.52, -16.39, -3.68%) did, too, after 75% of shareholders approved a pay package for Elon Musk that could be worth possibly as much as $1 trillion if various benchmarks are met.

To be sure, there were outsized gains registered in some corners as well, yet there was a clear leadership void among the mega-cap stocks and growth stocks that weighed on the indices and investor sentiment. NVIDIA (NVDA 188.15, +0.07, +0.04%), which battled back from a near 5.0% decline today that briefly took it below its 50-day moving average (183.43), declined 7.1% this week. Microsoft (MSFT 496.82, -0.28, -0.06%) declined 4.1% this week and has an eight-session losing streak.

The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF declined 3.1% this week, while the Russell 3000 Growth Index dropped 3.3%. In comparison, the Russell 3000 Value Index fell just 0.4% this week, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 shed just 0.2%.

• Nasdaq Composite: +19.1% YTD
• S&P 500: +14.4% YTD
• DJIA: +10.5% YTD
• Russell 2000: +9.1% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:

• The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for November fell to 50.3 (Briefing.com consensus: 54.0) from the final reading of 53.6 for October. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 71.8.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the decline in sentiment was widespread across the population, with one notable exception: consumers within the largest tercile of stock holdings.
• Consumer credit increased by $13.1 billion in September (Briefing.com consensus: $8.0 billion) following an upwardly revised $3.1 billion increase (from $0.4 billion) in August.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the expansion in consumer credit in September was driven largely by nonrevolving credit.

[BRIEFING.COM] Our last update discussed the market's budding optimism that a deal to end the government shutdown could be in the making. CNBC has subsequently reported that the Democrats' offer will be rejected by the Republicans, who want the government reopened first before holding talks on extending the Obamacare subsidies.

The rebound effort has cooled off in the wake of this reporting. The bogey into the close now will be 6,669.00--the key support level (50-day moving average) we have been highlighting all day.

A close above that key level, even if it means a loss for the day in the S&P 500, is presumably an important component for breathing some life into the buy-the-dip crowd, as that key support level has held repeatedly in the run off the April lows.

[BRIEFING.COM] Earlier, we noted that the S&P 500 was testing key support at its 50-day moving average (6,669.00), which has held on multiple occasions during the rally off the April lows. Our contention was that, if the buy-the-dip trade was going to be resuscitated, it should be happening there.

Well, it has taken some time to unfold (the S&P 500 ultimately traded down to 6,631.44), but the buy-the-dip crowd is back and has been doing the driving in the afternoon session. The S&P 500 is back above 6,700.00, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, down 416 points at its low today, is back in positive territory.

The afternoon rebound has been a broad-based and indiscriminate affair. Just about everything has been pulled higher, helped in part by a bubbling of optimism that the government shutdown could be close to ending.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Democrats will vote to reopen the government if Republicans agree to a one-year extension of COVID-era Obamacare subsidies. Axios reporter Stef Kight has reported that GOP senators will have a meeting at 3:30 PM today to discuss the Democrats' offer. They could reject it, but for now at least, the market is heartened that it isn't a flat-out "no."

While the rebound has been broad-based, that doesn't mean gains in every case, but it means reduced losses. The S&P 500 information technology sector, down 2.4% at its worst level of the day, is now down just 0.8%.

The equal-weighted S&P 500, meanwhile, is up 0.8%.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.57%) is in second place on Friday afternoon, down 38 points.

Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Dexcom (DXCM 54.97, -3.05, -5.26%), Franklin Resources (BEN 22.14, -1.11, -4.77%), and onsemi (ON 46.86, -1.94, -3.98%) pepper the bottom of the standings. DXCM falls despite strength in peer Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM 16.18, +2.85, +21.38%) after earnings, while BEN slides despite topping Q4 earnings and revenue estimates, as investors focused on continued net outflows and lingering pressure from its Western Asset unit.

Meanwhile, Akamai Tech (AKAM 85.59, +12.59, +17.25%) is one of today's better performers after posting a Q3 earnings beat, raising its FY25 outlook, and highlighting rapid growth in its cloud and AI-driven edge infrastructure businesses.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (-1.38%) is in last place on Friday afternoon, down more than 319 points.

Gold futures settled $18.80 higher (+0.5%) at $4,009.80/oz, and are up roughly +0.3% on the week. The move appears to be driven primarily by a combination of a weakening U.S. dollar and renewed expectations of an interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve. In addition, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and uncertainties around U.S. trade/tariff policy have revived safe-haven demand for bullion, supporting the advance.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.2% to $99.51.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.43%) is in "first" place, down only 200 points as more aggressive losses are had elsewhere.

A look inside the DJIA shows that Nike (NKE 60.50, -1.39, -2.25%), IBM (IBM 305.78, -6.64, -2.13%), and NVIDIA (NVDA 184.22, -3.86, -2.05%) are underperforming.

Meanwhile, Coca-Cola (KO 70.37, +1.31, +1.90%) is today's top gain getter.

The DJIA is poised to end the week -1.79% lower.

Elsewhere, at the top of the hour, Baker Hughes (BKR 47.63, +0.34, +0.72%) announced a weekly U.S. rotary rig count of 548, +2 w/w and -37 yr/yr.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices have struggled today, weighed down by continued selling of the mega-cap stocks and growth stocks. That selling has been precipitated by some earnings/guidance disappointments, but it is primarily a case of momentum cutting the other way.

The indices had been carried to record heights by upside momentum surrounding the AI trade and rate-cut possibilities, but the notion that some stocks may have flown too close to the sun and that others won't see a meaningful return on huge AI investments anytime soon has triggered a wave of profit-taking activity.

In the process, the S&P 500 has dropped below key support at its 50-day moving average (6,669.00), creating a technical catalyst for some follow-through selling interest.

All seven of the "Magnificent 7" stocks are trading lower. Tesla (TSLA 426.24, -19.67, -4.41%) is the biggest loser, with news circulating that 75% of shareholders approved a pay package for Elon Musk that could possibly pay him as much as $1 trillion if a series of demanding benchmarks are reached.

NVIDIA (NVDA 182.58, -5.50, -2.92%) is next in line with a 2.9% loss on no news that has taken that stock below its 50-day moving average (183.31) as well. The S&P 500 information technology sector, which accounts for 35% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, is down 1.9%.

There is a lot of "weight," therefore, that is acting as a drag on the market, yet today's weakness isn't a broad market sell-off. There are five S&P 500 sectors trading higher, led by consumer staples (+1.4%) and energy (+1.1%). The equal-weighted S&P 500 is down just 0.1%, and breadth, while negative at the NYSE, favors decliners by a palatable 8-to-5 margin.

At the Nasdaq, which is populated with many growth stock listings, decliners lead advancers by a better than 2-to-1 margin. Take-Two (TTWO 228.36, -24.04, -9.52%), Microchip (MCHP 54.46, -4.88, -8.23%), The Trade Desk (TTD 42.54, -3.36, -7.32%), Arm Holdings plc (ARM 147.53, -10.72, -6.77%), and Marvell (MRVL 87.03, -6.30, -6.75%) are the biggest losers at the Nasdaq.

Aside from the complications the growth stocks are experiencing, the market is also grappling with some growth concerns tied to reports of flight cancellations due to the government shutdown and one of the lowest consumer sentiment readings on record.

The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for November fell to 50.3 (Briefing.com consensus: 54.0) from the final reading of 53.6 for October. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 71.8.

The key takeaway from the report is that the decline in sentiment was widespread across the population, with one notable exception: consumers within the largest tercile of stock holdings.

Like yesterday, Treasuries have drawn some support from the struggles in the stock market and the slowdown concerns. The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.53%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.07%.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 hit 6,630 before fighting back from a steady stream of selling interest (or, perhaps, more like a steady lack of buying interest) to pare its losses. Nonetheless, it continues to trade below its 50-day moving average (6,669.00).

There wasn't a news catalyst for the recent bounce, although it stood to reason with the S&P 500 information technology sector (-1.9%) down earlier more than 6.0% for the week that there was some sense that it was due for a bounce.

That sector accounts for 35% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, so it matters a lot what it does. In a certain respect, where it goes, the market will follow.

[BRIEFING.COM] The standing of the major indices seemingly suggests that there isn't much going right in the market today. That disposition, however, is misleading.

The weight of losses in the information technology (-2.3%), communication services (-2.1%), and consumer discretionary (-1.3%) sectors is largely responsible for the weakness at the index level. That can't be ignored; after all, the weight of their gains was instrumental in the run to record highs.

Alas, while they are struggling today (and this week), the consumer staples (+1.4%), energy (+1.0%), materials (+0.7%), real estate (+0.6%), and utilities (+0.1%) sectors are all plugging away today.

For some added context, the information technology sector is down 6.1% this week, but the consumer staples sector is up 1.0%.

[BRIEFING.COM] Buy-the-dip conviction has been lacking, as the major indices continue to leak oil from their main engine: the mega-cap stocks. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) is down 1.7% (it had been down 1.9%).

Those troubles aside, the market, overall, isn't faring so poorly. The equal-weighted S&P 500 is down just 0.1% versus the 1.0% decline for the market cap-weighted S&P 500.

Growth stocks, high-beta stocks, and the like, such as micro-cap stocks, are where the selling is concentrated today. The S&P MidCap 400 Index, for instance, is down but is quietly going about its business with a more modest 0.3% decline.

Similarly, the value factor is holding up well versus the growth factor. The Russell 3000 Value Index is down 0.3% versus a 1.6% decline for the Russell 3000 Growth Index.

[BRIEFING.COM] The rebound effort from the opening lows has run into some resistance. The S&P 500 slipped to new lows for the session (6652.25) that left it below its 50-day moving average. That is the battle line today, but the war isn't over yet. The market doesn't close until 4:00 p.m. ET.

The recent decline has been precipitated by renewed selling in the mega-cap space. Six of the Magnificent 7 stocks are down at this juncture. The lone exception is Apple (AAPL 270.82, +1.05, +0.39%).

Tesla (TSLA 428.00, -17.91, -4.02%), meanwhile, is the biggest laggard of the bunch following last night's news that 75% of shareholders approved Elon Musk's pay package, which could stretch as high as $1 trillion if all benchmarks are ultimately reached.

Weakness in Tesla and Amazon (AMZN 240.01, -3.03, -1.25%) has the consumer discretionary sector (-1.0%) in red figures, yet Expedia Group (EXPE 258.86, +39.16, +17.82%) has risen above the sector fray after its well-received earnings report.

[BRIEFING.COM] There is a weight on the market, and it is being applied by the market's largest stocks and its high-energy stocks. The lack of upside momentum in these names, after recent losses, has left some market participants reluctant to embrace a buy-the-dip trade.

The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at the top of the hour didn't necessarily help matters in that regard. It checked in at 50.3 (Briefing.com consensus: 54.0) versus the final reading of 53.6 for October. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 71.8.

The key takeaway from the report is that the decline in sentiment was widespread across the population, with one notable exception: consumers within the largest tercile of stock holdings.

If there was a saving grace in that report, it was in the recognition that long-term inflation expectations fell to 3.6% from 3.9% in October. Those aren't low inflation expectations, but directionally they qualify as good news.

The real basis for the improvement in the market from the opening lows, however, is technical in nature. The S&P 500 briefly dipped below its 50-day moving average (6669.00), but in an encouraging sign soon found some buyer support, just as it always has since the April lows.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices started today's session on a lower note, as presaged by the equity futures market. Weakness in the mega-cap stocks acted as the key driver. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) is down 1.2%.

The communication services (-1.3%), information technology (-1.2%), and consumer discretionary (-1.0%) sectors, all of which house mega-cap components, are the biggest laggards on the sector front.

Notably, the S&P 500 is trading around a key support level in its 50-day moving average (6669.00). It dipped below that level briefly, touching 6661.98, before finding some support.

The 50-day moving average will be a closely watched level, certainly for the buy-the-dip crowd, since it has held repeatedly during the run from the April lows. It would not be regarded as a positive technical development if the S&P 500 closed below that key support area. If there is going to be a resuscitation of the buy-the-dip trade, it should be happening here.

The CBOE Volatility Index is up 7.3% to 20.93.

There hasn't been a quick impulse to buy into yesterday's weakness. The futures for the major indices are on the softer side of things so far, which is setting the stage for a lower open.

The S&P 500 futures are down 35 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 176 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 166 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value.

Once again, there is a ton of earnings news for the market to digest, and once again, there are many stocks with outsized gains and outsized losses on the other side of their reports.

Stocks like JFrog (FROG), Affirm (AFRM), and Expedia (EXPE) are among the outsized gainers, while stocks like Sweetgreen (SG), Block (XYZ), and DraftKings (DKNG) are among the outsized losers.

Growth stocks, in general, have had a tough week, with concerns about valuations and excess speculation tempering buyer interest. The Russell 3000 Growth Index is down 2.7% week-to-date, while the Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) is down 2.6%.

There is general softness again this morning. All of the Magnificent 7 stocks are lower this morning, including Tesla (TSLA), which is down 0.6% following the news that shareholders approved a pay package for Elon Musk that could possibly get to $1 trillion.

There isn't a lot of macro news drawing extra attention outside of China's disappointing trade data for October and, of course, the ongoing government shutdown, which is responsible for increased flight cancellations.

The Senate is expected to hold another funding vote today, yet reports suggest approval is still not assured. Separately, there will be some economic data to get through today. The preliminary Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Briefing.com consensus: 54.0; prior 53.6) is at 10:00 a.m. ET and will be followed by the September Consumer Credit report (Briefing.com consensus: $8.0 billion; prior $0.4 billion) at 3:00 p.m. ET.

The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.55%, and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.09%.

In corporate news:

• Affirm (AFRM 70.73, +4.77, +7.2%): beats by $0.12, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs in-line
• Airbnb (ABNB 124.95, +4.42, +3.7%): misses by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 revs in-line, expects GBV to grow low-double-digits yr/yr
• Block (XYZ 60.16, -10.77, -15.2%): misses by $0.10, misses on revs
• DraftKings (DKNG 26.22, -1.76, -6.3%): beats by $0.17, misses on revs; guides FY25 revs below consensus; increases share repurchase program to $2 bln from $1 bln
• Expedia (EXPE 253.00, +33.30, +15.2%): beats by $0.60, beats on revs; raises FY25 revs above consensus
• JFrog (FROG 58.51, +11.25, +23.8%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
• MP Materials (MP 48.10, -3.85, -7.4%): beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line
• Sweetgreen (SG 5.29, -0.96, -15.4%): misses by $0.15, misses on revs; lowers FY25 revs below consensus; same-store sales -9.5%
• Tesla (TSLA 443.20, -2.71, -0.6%): shareholders approve CEO Elon Musk's $1 trillion pay package; at annual meeting says it is "probably going to have to build a gigantic chip fab"

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -1.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.9%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3%, India's Sensex: -0.1%, South Korea's Kospi: -1.8%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.7%.

In news:

• China reported a smaller-than-expected trade surplus of October ($90.07 bln) due to weak imports and exports.
• The U.S. government is reportedly banning NVIDIA's throttled-down AI chip that was designed for the Chinese market.
• Japan's Financial Services Agency will support joint issuance of a stablecoin by three major banks.

In economic data:

• China's October trade surplus $90.07 bln (expected surplus of $96.90 bln; last surplus of $90.45 bln). October Imports 1.0% yr/yr (expected 3.2%; last 7.4%) and Exports -1.1% yr/yr (expected 3.0%: last 8.3%). October Foreign Reserves $3.343 trln (expected $3.320 trln; last $3.339 trln)
• Japan's September Household Spending -0.7% m/m (last 0.6%); 1.8% yr/yr (expected 2.5%; last 2.3%)

Major European indices trade in the red.  STOXX Europe 600: -0.7%, Germany's DAX: -0.8%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.6%, France's CAC 40: -0.3%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.5%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.9%.

In news:

• Germany reported a smaller-than-expected trade surplus due to strong growth in imports.
• The Dutch government will give up control of Chinese chipmaker Nexperia if China restarts exports of some chips, according to Bloomberg.
• British airline conglomerate IAG reported a yr/yr drop in net profit due to lower demand for flights to the U.S.

In economic data:

• Germany's September trade surplus EUR15.3 bln (expected surplus of EUR16.7 bln; last surplus of EUR16.9 bln). September Imports 3.1% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -1.4%) and Exports 1.4% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.8%)
• U.K.'s October Halifax House Price Index 0.6% m/m (expected 0.1%; last -0.3%); 1.9% yr/yr (expected 1.5%: last 1.3%)
• France's September trade deficit EUR6.6 bln (expected deficit of EUR5.9 bln; last deficit of EUR5.2 bln). September Current Account deficit EUR1.60 bln (last surplus of EUR1.40 bln)
• Swiss Q4 SECO Consumer Climate -37 (expected -36; last -28)

[BRIEFING.COM] It was a struggle for the stock market today, largely because it was a struggle for growth stocks as a whole and many of the mega-cap stocks. Both groups were hit with some profit-taking interest and were saddled with residual concerns over stretched valuations and excess speculation.

In a certain respect, it was a rehash of Tuesday's selling in the wake of Palantir Technologies' (PLTR 175.07, -12.83, -6.83%) earnings report, only the losses overall weren't as significant. There was the same concentration factor, however.

The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) and the Russell 3000 Growth Index were both down as much as 1.9% at their worst levels of the day before they pared their losses. They finished today's session down 1.7% and 1.6%, respectively.

Outsized losses in e.l.f. Beauty (ELF 76.62, -41.21, -34.97%), Duolingo (DUOL 193.74, -66.28, -25.49%), DoorDash (DASH 196.46, -41.54, -17.45%), and Paycom Software (PAYC 164.05, -19.66, -10.70%) after they disappointed with their results and/or guidance took a toll on investor sentiment, as did a Q3 warning from CarMax (KMX 30.88, -9.93, -24.33%), which also said its CEO will be stepping down.

Then, there was the overhang of losses in Tesla (TSLA 445.91, -16.16, -3.50%), NVIDIA (NVDA 188.08, -7.13, -3.65%), Meta Platforms (META 618.94, -17.01, -2.67%), Amazon (AMZN 243.04, -7.16, -2.86%), and Microsoft (MSFT 497.10, -10.06, -1.98%). Alphabet (GOOG 285.34, +0.59, +0.21%; GOOGL 284.75, +0.44, +0.15%) bucked that trend on a report that it will make its powerful AI chip, Ironwood, widely available in the coming weeks. That report presumably weighed some on NVIDIA.

Weakness in these mega-cap leaders made it all but impossible for the market cap-weighted indices to stake a claim on positive ground. In fact, the majority of stocks struggled today. Decliners led advancers by a 9-to-5 margin at the NYSE and by a better than 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq. 

There were only two sectors that ended the day higher-energy (+0.9%) and health care (+0.2%). The latter saw some added news flow, with President Trump announcing in an Oval Office briefing that Eli Lilly (LLY 937.76, +11.95, +1.29%) and Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO 46.50, -1.96, -4.04%) will provide most-favored nation drug pricing for their weight-loss drugs.

The consumer discretionary (-2.5%) and information technology (-2.2%) sectors were today's worst-performing areas. Interestingly, they were the only two sectors that underperformed the S&P 500 (-1.1%). The other losing sectors were down between 0.3% and 0.7%.

There weren't any official government reports today due to the shutdown. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported, however, that job cuts in October (153,074) were the highest they have been in any October since 2003.

That report also acted as a deterrent for buyers in today's session, although it was a factor in the gains seen in the Treasury market. The 2-yr note yield settled the session down six basis points at 3.57%, while the 10-yr note yield settled the session down six basis points at 4.09%.

• Nasdaq Composite: +19.4% YTD
• S&P 500: +14.3% YTD
• DJIA: +10.5% YTD
• Russell 2000: +8.7% YTD