[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market had an eventful day today, with inflation readings, volatile oil prices, and developments from today's FOMC meeting putting broad pressure on the market. The S&P 500 (-1.3%) finished a touch above its 200-day moving average of 6,615, while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.4%) and DJIA (-1.6%) violated their respective 200-day moving averages. 

Stocks opened to more modest losses following the release of the February PPI (0.7%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%), which fueled inflation concerns, especially since the index does not yet reflect the recent surge in oil prices. Oil was also higher this morning amid reports that Iran threatened numerous Gulf energy sites following an Israeli strike on an Iranian gas field, though the action was choppy, and crude oil futures settled today's session $0.63 lower (-0.7%) at $95.42 per barrel. 

While there was some modest relief in oil prices, inflation concerns took center stage this afternoon with the March FOMC meeting. The FOMC voted 11-1 to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% (Fed Governor Miran preferred a 25 bps cut), which was widely expected. 

What the market was particularly attuned to was the updated summary of economic projections (SEP), which showed a bump in the median estimate for change in real GDP to 2.4% from 2.3% and PCE inflation to 2.7% from 2.4%. There was no change in the median estimate of one rate cut this year and one rate cut next year, although the longer-run estimate for the fed funds rate ticked up to 3.10% from 3.00%.

The market's initial reaction to these updates was fairly muted, though stocks moved lower in broad fashion during Fed Chair Powell's press conference. Mr. Powell noted that officials are still looking for goods inflation to come down as tariffs work their way through the system and that the higher inflation expectations are not solely due to rising oil prices. 

Mr. Powell also warned, "The possibility that our next move might be an increase did come up at the meeting, as it did the last meeting. The vast majority of participants don't see that as their base case."

Ultimately, today's meeting weighed on stocks, with all eleven S&P 500 sectors finishing at session lows in negative territory. Eight of those sectors finished with losses of 1.0% or wider. 

The consumer staples (-2.4%) and consumer discretionary (-2.3%) sectors finished at the bottom of today's leaderboard amid the focus on inflation, with nearly all of their components trading lower. lululemon athletica (LULU 165.39, +6.12, +3.84%) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM 184.04, +1.87, +1.03%) managed a higher finish after their earnings reports but were well off their session highs by the close. 

The top-weighted information technology sector (-1.2%) was a relative outperformer this morning, though it faced increasing pressure this afternoon. Software stocks were a point of weakness, with the iShares GS Software ETF finishing 1.4% lower, while NVIDIA (NVDA 180.40, -1.53, -0.84%) and other chipmakers ceded their early gains. Micron (MU 461.73, +0.04, +0.01%) traded flat ahead of its earnings after the close. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-1.7%) finished in line with the major averages, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.9%) closed with a more modest loss. 

Ultimately, the combination of sticky inflation and policy uncertainty leaves the market vulnerable, especially with key technical levels now in focus. Continued volatility in energy prices remains an added headwind for equities.

U.S. Treasuries had a tough day, and yields rose across the curve. The 2-year note yield settled up eight basis points to 3.75%, and the 10-year note yield settled up six basis points to 4.26%. 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +1.8% YTD
• Russell 2000: -0.1% YTD
• S&P 500: -3.2% YTD
• DJIA: -3.8% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -4.7% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -10.9%; Prior was revised to 3.2% from
• February PPI 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.5%, February Core PPI 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior 0.8%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the uptick in producer prices was seen in both goods (+1.1%) and services (+0.5%), and the added point is that this higher inflation occurred before the war with Iran and subsequent surge in energy prices, which will foment concerns about a worsening inflation situation.
• January Factory Orders 0.1%; Prior was revised to -0.4% from -0.7%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is the tepid level of business spending in January, evidenced by the 0.1% increase in new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to chart session lows following the conclusion of Fed Chair Powell's press conference. Mr. Powell noted to "take SEP forecasts now with a grain of salt" as "they are subject to a very high level of uncertainty."

While investors digest Fed Chair Powell's commentary, a notable earnings report from Micron (MU 464.84, +3.15, +0.68%) awaits after the close. The stock is up 63.2% for the year, which could lead to some volatility regardless of how the company's earnings report lands. Memory storage names such as Micron and Sandisk (SNDK 754.91, +34.74, +4.82%) have been a point of relative strength today, though the broader information technology sector (-1.0%) sits at session lows. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.1%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.1%), and DJIA (-1.4%) sit at session lows as Fed Chair Jerome Powell fields questions during the press conference portion of the FOMC meeting. 

Mr. Powell noted that higher inflation is now expected in 2026, but that is not solely due to the recent surge in energy prices. 

Additionally, support for a two-sided policy warning did come up at the meeting, though "the vast majority of participants don't see that as their base case."

Separately, Mr. Powell said, "If my successor is not confirmed by the end of my term as chair, I would serve as chair pro tem until he is confirmed. That is what the law calls for. That is what we have done on essential occasions, including involving me. And what we will do in this situation."

[BRIEFING.COM] As expected, the FOMC voted to leave the target rate for the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. Fed Governor Miran was the lone dissenter on the committee of 12 voters, preferring a 25 basis point cut at this meeting.

The directive noted that, "Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to both sides of its dual mandate."

This decision and this perspective should have surprised nobody. Similarly, it should not be a surprise that the median estimate for PCE inflation this year got bumped up (to 2.7% from 2.4%) along with the median estimate for core PCE inflation (to 2.7% from 2.5%). The median estimate for the change in real GDP also moved higher (to 2.4% from 2.3%), while the median estimate for the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%.

There was no change in the median estimate of one rate cut this year and one rate cut next year, although the longer run estimate for the fed funds rate ticked up to 3.10% from 3.00%.

The market's initial reaction to these updates was fairly muted. That's understandable, because there weren't any major surprises. One could argue, though, that it was a pleasant surprise to see the median estimate for one rate cut this year remain intact even though the median estimate for the inflation forecasts moved further away from the Fed's 2.00% target. That seemingly suggests the consensus view of Fed officials is that the inflation driven by the war with Iran won't be lasting.

We'll find out if that is the case when Fed Chair Powell holds his press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. We would expect Mr. Powell to point out that geopolitical-driven price shocks aren't typically long-lasting but that there is a high degree of uncertainty around the current situation, so the Fed will be patient and take the necessary time to assess the incoming data before acting. It will be a tactful way of saying the market can expect the next rate cut later rather than sooner.

[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.66%) is down about 148 points ahead of the FOMC policy decision at the top of the hour wherein the market is nearly certain today's FOMC policy decision will be to leave things as-is.

Gold futures settled $112.00 lower (-2.2%) at $4,896.20/oz, as a stronger U.S. dollar and rising rate expectations, driven by higher oil prices and persistent inflation concerns, weighed on the non-yielding metal. The decline was also fueled by profit-taking and liquidation of crowded long positions after gold's recent run above $5,000.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is about +0.3% higher to $99.82.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.95%) is in last place on Wednesday afternoon, down about 446 points.

A look inside the DJIA shows that Visa (V 300.43, -8.03, -2.60%), Procter & Gamble (PG 147.94, -3.53, -2.33%), and Amgen (AMGN 352.99, -8.14, -2.25%) are underperforming.

Meanwhile, Chevron (CVX 200.07, +2.10, +1.06%) holds firm atop the average.

The DJIA is now down a modest -0.03% lower week-to-date.

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks are giving back some of their strength from the previous two sessions this week, with the S&P 500 (-0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.8%), and DJIA (-0.9%) trading in a relatively tight range near their session lows. 

Equity futures moved sharply lower this morning following the release of the February PPI report (0.7%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), which came in hotter-than-anticipated. The report weighed on the market's already dwindling rate-cut hopes, with the CME FedWatch tool now assigning a roughly 60% probability to at least a 25-basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, down from around 70% yesterday. 

The market is nearly certain today's FOMC meeting will not result in any changes to the fed funds target rate, though investors are eager to see the effect that the recent surge in oil prices has on the Summary of Economic Projections and, in turn, any commentary on the expected policy path. 

While macro developments will continue to take center stage as the 2:00 p.m. ET FOMC decision looms, the market also faces some pressure on the geopolitical front. 

Bloomberg reported this morning that Iran has released a list of energy sites across countries in the Persian Gulf region that it threatens to attack in retaliation for an Israeli strike against an Iranian gas field. Crude oil is up $1.30 (+1.4%) to $96.83 per barrel, though it is off its session highs. 

Weakness is relatively broad today, with only the energy (+0.6%) and industrials (+0.3%) sectors trading higher.

The defensive consumer staples (-1.5%) and health care (-1.1%) sectors are among the worst performers after posting similar losses yesterday. 

The consumer discretionary sector (-1.2%) holds a comparable loss, with broad weakness and poor leadership from Amazon (AMZN 211.09, -4.11, -1.91%) outweighing solid post-earnings moves from lululemon athletica (LULU 167.97, +8.70, +5.46%) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM 192.87, +10.70, +5.87%).

Meanwhile, the top-weighted information technology sector (-0.4%) holds a more modest loss. Software stocks are underperforming, with the iShares GS Software ETF down 1.9%. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-0.7%) holds a loss comparable to that of the major averages, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (flat) is a relative outperformer. 

While today's weakness is broad, the major averages have been relatively rangebound after their initial retreat, suggesting that investors are awaiting the upcoming FOMC developments before making more decisive moves. So far, however, the combination of higher oil prices and disappointing inflation data has continued to weigh on the market's rate-cut expectations.

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -10.9%; Prior was revised to 3.2% from
• February PPI 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.5%, February Core PPI 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior 0.8%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the uptick in producer prices was seen in both goods (+1.1%) and services (+0.5%), and the added point is that this higher inflation occurred before the war with Iran and subsequent surge in energy prices, which will foment concerns about a worsening inflation situation.
• January Factory Orders 0.1%; Prior was revised to -0.4% from -0.7%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is the tepid level of business spending in January, evidenced by the 0.1% increase in new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.5%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.5%), and DJIA (-0.9%) remain little changed from previous levels shortly after midday.

Jabil (JBL 257.02, -5.33, -2.03%) is trading modestly lower following its Q2 (Feb) report, despite delivering another strong quarter featuring its sixth consecutive double-digit EPS beat. The EMS provider posted robust revenue growth and issued upbeat guidance, although some investors appear underwhelmed by a slight deceleration in its key segment outlook.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to trade in a relatively stable range firmly below their baselines at midday. 

The Trade Desk (TTD 23.57, -1.50, -5.98%) is the worst-performing S&P 500 stock today following a Stifel downgrade to Hold from Buy. The downgrade followed reports that Publicis Groupe, the world's largest advertising holding company, has officially stopped recommending The Trade Desk to its clients as a preferred demand-side platform (DSP). Note that TTD shares fell 7.4% yesterday.

Meanwhile, stocks tied to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, such as Coinbase Global (COIN 202.93, -7.30, -3.47%) and Strategy Inc (MSTR 142.17, -8.11, -5.40%), are also under pressure today as Bitcoin sinks 3.4%. 

[BRIEFING.COM] After two consecutive higher finishes to start the week, stocks are under broad pressure today, with the S&P 500 (-0.5%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.5%), and DJIA (-0.8%) currently moving off of their session lows. The Russell 2000 (-0.7%) holds a comparable loss, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.1%) is a relative outperformer. 

The market faces a combination of pressures this morning. Escalating tensions pertaining to the war in Iran have sent oil prices climbing higher, with crude oil currently up $2.44 (+2.6%) to $97.97 per barrel. Bloomberg reported that Iran has threatened to strike various energy sites throughout the Persian Gulf region after Israel attacked its energy infrastructure. 

On the macro front, a hotter-than-anticipated PPI report for February (0.7%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) has added to recent inflation concerns, especially since the report does not yet reflect the recent surge in oil prices. Market participants are eager for this afternoon's FOMC meeting for further clarity on how rising energy costs will affect the expected policy outlook. 

For the time being, stocks are under broad pressure, with only the energy sector (+0.1%) trading slightly higher. Losses are particularly acute in the defensive consumer staples (-1.8%) and health care (-1.3%) sectors. 

A pullback in gold and silver prices sends the materials sector (-1.5%) lower as well, while the consumer discretionary sector (-1.2%) faces broad pressure despite solid post-earnings gains from Lululemon Athletica (LULU 163.83, +4.56, +2.86%) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM 191.58, +9.42, +5.17%). 

Following the initial retreat this morning, stocks have traded in a relatively tight range, suggesting a degree of caution ahead of the FOMC meeting this afternoon. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages trade a touch above their session lows. 

The consumer discretionary sector (-1.2%) is a laggard today, giving back the entirety of yesterday's gain and then some. There are, however, a few notable gains in response to earnings throughout the sector. 

Williams-Sonoma (WSM 191.34, +9.17, +5.03%) is the best-performing S&P 500 name after the company beat EPS expectations by $0.13 and missed on revenues, reporting a comparable brand revenue increase of 3.2%. The company also guided FY27 revenues in-line and increased its quarterly dividend by 15%. 

lululemon athletica (LULU 163.77, +4.50, +2.83%) is also heading higher after beating expectations in its Q4 (Jan) report last night. While EPS and revenue both came in ahead of consensus, profitability still declined as LULU continues to grapple with tariff pressure and higher markdowns, while revenue was flat year-over-year at $3.6 billion. LULU had already indicated in January that Q4 results were likely to land toward the high end of its prior outlook, so the stronger quarter was not a major surprise. Instead, the focus was on its guidance, with Q1 EPS of $1.63-1.68 and revenue of $2.40-2.43 billion both below expectations, while FY27 guidance also came in light, with EPS of $12.10-12.30 and revenue of $11.35-11.50 billion.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.7%), and DJIA (-0.9%) are charting session lows as the early weakness now encompasses the majority of the broader market, leaving only the energy sector (+0.1%) in modestly positive territory. 

Factory orders increased 0.1% month-over-month in January following an upwardly revised 0.4% decline (from -0.7%) in December. Excluding transportation, factory orders increased 0.4% after increasing 0.6% in December. Shipments of manufactured goods rose 0.5% after increasing 0.7% in December.

The key takeaway from the report is the tepid level of business spending in January, evidenced by the 0.1% increase in new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%), and DJIA (-0.2%) opened with modest losses after a hotter-than-anticipated February PPI print (0.7%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) tempered some pre-market enthusiasm that saw futures trading higher. 

Additionally, oil prices are back on the rise, with crude oil currently up $2.50 (+2.6%) to $98.03 per barrel. The increase comes after Bloomberg reported Iran has threatened to strike more energy targets across Gulf states after Israel targeted its energy infrastructure. 

The energy sector (+0.4%) is just one of three S&P 500 sectors that trade higher this morning. The industrials sector (+0.4%) holds a similar gain as engineering and construction names outperform today, while the financials sector (+0.1%) is supported by a continuation of the recent rebound effort across asset manager names.

The top-weighted information technology sector (+0.1%) also trades slightly higher, keeping losses subdued at the index level. 

Meanwhile, losses are widest in the defensive consumer staples (-1.7%) and health care (-1.7%) sectors, which also lagged in yesterday's action. The materials sector (-1.5%) holds a similar loss as precious metals prices move lower this morning. 

Just released, factory orders increased 0.1% month-over-month in January following an upwardly revised 0.4% decrease (from -0.7%) in December.

The stock market is now on track for a lower opening this morning following a hotter-than-expected February PPI report. 

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) following a 0.5% increase in January. The Producer Price Index for final demand, less foods and energy, jumped 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) following a 0.8% increase in January.

On a year-over-year basis, the Producer Price Index for final demand was up 3.4%, versus 2.9% in January, and the Producer Price Index for final demand, less foods and energy, was up 3.9%, versus 3.6% in January.

The key takeaway from the report is that the uptick in producer prices was seen in both goods (+1.1%) and services (+0.5%), and the added point is that this higher inflation occurred before the war with Iran and subsequent surge in energy prices, which will foment concerns about a worsening inflation situation.

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 29 points below fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region caught a wave of buying interest on Wednesday, bolstered by a series of positive developments. Japan saw stronger-than-expected export activity in February, oil prices retreated, multiple Chinese companies have reportedly been approved to buy NVIDIA's H200 chips, and South Korea said it will be implementing capital market reforms to strengthen market fundamentals. Samsung's affirmation of strong AI chip demand further supplemented the Kospi's impressive 5.0% gain that was registered alongside the Nikkei's robust 2.9% gain. Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi will meet with President Trump tomorrow in Washington, DC, on the heels of the BOJ policy decision.

• In economic data:
  • Japan's February exports 4.2% yr/yr (expected 1.6%; prior 16.8%) and imports 10.2% yr/yr (expected 11.5%; prior -2.6%); March Reuters Tankan Index 18 (prior 13)
  • South Korea's February unemployment rate 2.9% (prior 3.0%)
  • Hong Kong's February unemployment rate 3.8% (prior 3.9%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +2.9%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.6%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +0.3%
• India's Sensex: +0.8%
• South Korea's Kospi: +5.0%
• Australia's All Ordinaries: +0.3%

Major European indices have followed suit with global markets, advancing in Wednesday's trade as oil prices ease and tech stocks continue to provide leadership. Howevere, the group has taken a turn lower over the past half-hour. Falling bond yields, helped by some better-than-feared February CPI data for the eurozone, have added to the constructive tone in front of the FOMC decision later today and policy announcements from the Bank of England, ECB, and Swiss National Bank on Thursday.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone February CPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.7%; prior -0.6%) and 1.9% yr/yr (expected 1.9%; prior 1.7%); core CPI 0.8% m/m (expected 0.8%; prior -1.1%) and 2.4% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; prior 2.2%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -0.5%
• Germany's DAX: -0.9%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.6%
• France's CAC 40: UNCH
• Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.4%
• Spain's IBEX 35: -0.1%

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 13 points below fair value. 

Just released, the Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) following a 0.5% increase in January.

The Producer Price Index for final demand, excluding food and energy, increased 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) following a 0.8% increase in January.

Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning after the major averages finished higher yesterday, though well off their best levels. 

A modest dip in oil prices is supporting equity futures this morning, with crude oil currently down $0.81 (-0.8%) to $95.40 per barrel. Bloomberg reports that Iran has continued to attack Israel and Arab states in the Persian Gulf, though President Trump reiterated his stance that the conflict could end in the near future. 

The market is eager to see the effect that the recent surge in oil prices will have on the Fed's expected policy outlook at today's FOMC meeting. The Fed is widely expected to keep the fed funds target rate unchanged (though The Wall Street Journal reports up to three officials could dissent), but the summary of economic projections and Fed Chair Powell's subsequent press conference could add color to the expected policy path. 

Expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2026 were touted as a tailwind to start the year, though the recent surge in oil prices has left the market unsure if it will receive a single cut.

On the data front, the market will receive the February PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) and Core PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) readings, though they will not yet show the increase in oil prices. 

The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ending March 14 decreased 10.9%, from a prior increase of 3.2%. 

In corporate news:

• General Mills (GIS 38.46, -0.28, -0.7%) missed EPS expectations by $0.09, reported revenues in-line, and reaffirmed its FY26 outlook. 
• lululemon athletica (LULU 158.00, -1.27, -0.8%) beat EPS expectations by $0.23 and reported revenues in-line. The company saw comparable sales growth of 3%, guided Q1 EPS and revenues below consensus, and guided FY27 EPS and revenues below consensus. 
• Microsoft (MSFT 400.08, +0.67, +0.2%) is considering legal action against Amazon (AMZN 215.20, +0.0, +0.0%) and OpenAI over a $50 billion cloud deal, according to Financial Times.
• NVIDIA (NVDA 183.45, +1.52, +0.8%) will soon get Chinese approval for H200 chip sales, according to Reuters. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region caught a wave of buying interest on Wednesday, bolstered by a series of positive developments. Japan's Nikkei: +2.9%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.6%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.3%, India's Sensex: +0.8%, South Korea's Kospi: +5.0%, Australia's All Ordinaries: +0.3%.

In news:

• Japan saw stronger-than-expected export activity in February, oil prices retreated, multiple Chinese companies have reportedly been approved to buy NVIDIA's H200 chips, and South Korea said it will be implementing capital market reforms to strengthen market fundamentals.
• Samsung's affirmation of strong AI chip demand further supplemented the Kospi's impressive 5.0% gain that was registered alongside the Nikkei's robust 2.9% gain.
• Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi will meet with President Trump tomorrow in Washington, DC, on the heels of the BOJ policy decision.

In economic data:

• Japan's February exports 4.2% yr/yr (expected 1.6%; prior 16.8%) and imports 10.2% yr/yr (expected 11.5%; prior -2.6%); March Reuters Tankan Index 18 (prior 13)
• South Korea's February unemployment rate 2.9% (prior 3.0%)
• Hong Kong's February unemployment rate 3.8% (prior 3.9%

Major European indices have followed suit with global markets, advancing in Wednesday's trade as oil prices ease and tech stocks continue to provide leadership. STOXX Europe 600: +0.5%, Germany's DAX: +0.7%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.3%, France's CAC 40: +1.0%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.9%, Spain's IBEX 35: +1.2%.

In news:

• Falling bond yields, helped by some better-than-feared February CPI data for the eurozone, have added to the constructive tone in front of the FOMC decision later today and policy announcements from the Bank of England, ECB, and Swiss National Bank on Thursday.

In economic data:

• Eurozone February CPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.7%; prior -0.6%) and 1.9% yr/yr (expected 1.9%; prior 1.7%); core CPI 0.8% m/m (expected 0.8%; prior -1.1%) and 2.4% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; prior 2.2%)

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks traded cautiously today amid a rise in oil prices and in anticipation of tomorrow's FOMC meeting, with the S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%), and DJIA finishing a touch off their session lows. 

Oil saw some gains this morning following headlines that Iran struck a natural gas field in the UAE and targeted another tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The market showed some resilience to the rebound in oil prices, opening to broad gains that were steadily eroded throughout the morning. Crude oil futures settled today's session $2.70 higher (+2.9%) at $96.05 per barrel.

The energy sector (+1.2%) notched the widest gain today, with Halliburton (HAL 35.64, +1.48, +4.33%) and APA Corp. (APA 35.86, +1.32, +3.84%) leading the advance. 

While the major averages gave back most of their early gains, eight total S&P 500 sectors managed to notch a higher finish today, keeping with yesterday's trend of broad strength. 

The consumer discretionary sector (+1.0%) outperformed, boosted by a nice gain in Amazon (AMZN 215.20, +3.46, +1.63%), which was a mega-cap standout today. The stock reached session highs this afternoon after Reuters reported that CEO Andy Jassy expects AI to double AWS projections to $600 billion by 2036.

Travel and leisure names such as Expedia Group (EXPE 241.25, +9.79, +4.23%) and Booking Holdings (BKNG 4442.33, +149.31, +3.48%) added support as the group rebounds from recent weakness tied to geopolitical and energy volatility. 

Alphabet (GOOG 309.41, +4.99, +1.64%) was another mega-cap standout, helping the communication services sector (+0.7%) finish near the top of the leaderboard as several other sectors trended lower later in the session. 

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+0.2%) finished well off its session highs, and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+0.5%) outperformed the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.3%). 

Several of the ETF's weaker components resided in the information technology sector (+0.2%), which finished just modestly higher after opening to solid gains this morning. NVIDIA (NVDA 181.93, -1.29, -0.70%) saw some profit-taking following yesterday's GTC conference developments that featured CEO Jensen Huang's projections for at least $1 trillion in revenue opportunity through 2027 for Blackwell and Rubin chips.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.5%) still managed a higher finish as memory storage names such as Western Digital (WDC 313.81, +27.60, +9.64%) and Micron (MU 461.69, +19.89, +4.50%) traded sharply higher again today. 

Software stocks were also relatively solid today, with the iShares GS Software (IGV 85.52, +0.57, +0.67%) finishing 0.7% higher.

Meanwhile, the health care sector (-0.9%) closed with the widest loss today as Eli Lilly (LLY 930.51, -58.61, -5.93%) lagged after HSBC downgraded the stock to Reduce from Hold, with a target price of $850. The defensive consumer staples (-0.5%) and utilities (-0.3%) sectors also moved lower this afternoon after trading flattish for most of the session.

Other noteworthy corporate developments include the outperformance of airline stocks after Delta Air Lines (DAL 64.82, +3.98, +6.54%) raised its Q1 guidance, while Uber (UBER 77.79, +3.13, +4.19%) traded higher after Reuters reported that the company plans to launch a robotaxi service that runs on NVIDIA's self-driving platform. Those developments helped offset weakness in the industrials sector (+0.3%), which faced some profit-taking in its defense names today. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.7%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.9%) outperformed the major averages.

Ultimately, the market held up reasonably well in the face of higher oil prices, but the pullback from early highs highlights a more cautious bias. Focus now shifts to tomorrow's FOMC decision, where investors will be looking for clarity on how recent energy developments factor into the Fed's outlook.

U.S. Treasuries saw yields fall back from higher levels in the overnight trade and close the regular session slightly lower than yesterday's settlement. Worries about slower growth and hesitation in front of Wednesday's FOMC decision and press conference ultimately won out as the Treasury market's driving influence. The 2-year note yield settled down one basis point to 3.67% and the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.20%. 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +2.7% YTD
• Russell 2000: +1.5% YTD
• S&P 500: -1.9% YTD
• DJIA: -2.2% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -3.3% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• February Pending Home Sales increased 1.8% (Briefing.com consensus: -0.8%; prior revised to -1.0% from -0.8%)