[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market navigated a maze of catalysts today to secure a modestly higher finish for the S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%), and DJIA (+0.2%). Investors had plenty to digest throughout the session, including a sizable batch of earnings reports that produced some notable stock-specific moves. A sharp rally in Oracle (ORCL 144.34, +13.81, +10.58%) following its long-term guidance coincided with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's afternoon press conference, with the combination briefly helping propel the major averages to session highs.

Macroeconomic developments commanded considerable attention, with the FOMC leaving interest rates unchanged while reinforcing its commitment to bringing inflation back to target. Meanwhile, crude oil prices surged amid renewed concerns about a potential escalation in the conflict with Iran, contributing to upward pressure on Treasury yields and creating an additional headwind for the broader market.

The session began with renewed enthusiasm for semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks following another round of encouraging earnings reports. Strong results from SK hynix Inc. (SKHY 164.77, +19.41, +13.35%) helped lift memory stocks, including Micron (MU 983.23, +54.47, +5.86%) and Sandisk (SNDK 1404.77, +99.93, +7.66%), although the early advance gradually lost momentum as weakness among several mega-cap technology names limited the broader market's upside.

The major averages subsequently drifted toward their flat lines ahead of the afternoon's FOMC decision. The FOMC voted to maintain the target range for the fed funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00%, with Fed Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. The accompanying statement emphasized resilient economic activity and persistently elevated inflation. Stocks briefly rallied during Chair Warsh's press conference as he suggested that incoming economic data would help clarify the appropriate path for monetary policy, although his reaffirmation of the Fed's 2.0% inflation target tempered some of that enthusiasm.

At roughly the same time, Oracle's (ORCL 144.34, +13.81, +10.58%) upbeat long-term outlook provided an additional catalyst, sparking a sharp rally in its shares and lifting other AI infrastructure names, including Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS 182.34, +11.87, +6.96%) and CoreWeave (CRWV 63.93, +4.36, +7.32%). Oracle projected annual revenue growth of more than 35% through FY30, with revenue reaching at least $225 billion, while outlining plans to reduce capital expenditures and generate at least $30 billion in positive free cash flow in FY29. Its expectation that additional capital markets funding would be limited to $20 billion through FY30 also offered some reassurance about the financing demands of its AI infrastructure expansion.

The information technology sector (+0.5%) finished among the stronger performers, supported by a 1.8% advance in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. However, the gains were somewhat restrained by weakness in NVIDIA (NVDA 215.38, -2.56, -1.17%), while Microsoft (MSFT 531.01, -0.32, -0.06%) finished little changed ahead of its earnings report after the close.

Alphabet (GOOG 321.89, +5.06, +1.60%) was a notable mega-cap outperformer ahead of its own results, helping lift the communication services sector (+0.4%).

Elsewhere, the health care sector (+0.3%) benefited from strength in biotechnology stocks, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) climbing 2.0%, alongside favorable earnings reactions in select health care names. The industrials sector (+0.3%) also finished higher, supported by earnings-related strength in Vertiv (VRT 243.11, +34.55, +16.57%), while the financials sector (+0.4%) advanced despite a muted response to Visa's (V 401.02, -0.84, -0.21%) earnings report.

Participation had a positive tilt, with seven S&P 500 sectors finishing higher, although gains remained relatively modest. Decliners outpaced advancers by a slim 7-to-6 margin on the NYSE, while advancers held a roughly 4-to-3 edge on the Nasdaq.

The consumer discretionary sector finished unchanged, while the utilities (-0.9%), real estate (-0.7%), and consumer staples (-0.4%) sectors lagged. The weakness in rate-sensitive areas came as Treasury yields climbed alongside crude oil prices.

WTI crude futures settled $2.87 higher (+2.9%) at $102.74 per barrel amid renewed geopolitical concerns. According to Axios, regional mediators led by Qatar are pressing Iran for nuclear concessions as the possibility of U.S. military strikes following the midterm elections looms in the absence of an agreement.

The market ultimately held on to modest gains despite the competing influences of encouraging AI-related developments, a cautious Fed, and rising oil prices and Treasury yields. Attention now turns to another consequential round of mega-cap earnings after the close, with results from Alphabet and Microsoft set to provide an important test of the enthusiasm surrounding AI investment and infrastructure spending.

U.S. Treasuries finished the midweek session on a mixed note with the 2-year yield returning to unchanged (4.74%) in reaction to the October FOMC Statement while the 30-year yield (+6 basis points to 5.36%) climbed to a fresh session high. The 10-year yield (+5 basis points to 5.05%), meanwhile, was caught in the middle, finishing the session just above its early-afternoon high seen before the release of the FOMC Statement.

• Nasdaq Composite: +14.2% YTD
• Russell 2000: +14.1% YTD
• S&P 500: +13.1% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +10.9% YTD
• DJIA: +9.2% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• 10/24 MBA Mortgage Applications Index 3.4% (Prior -5.3%)
• Sep Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods -$134.9B (Briefing.com consensus -$128.7B; Prior -$132.1B revised from -$132.6B)
• Sep Adv. Retail Inventories 0.3% (Prior 0.3%)
• Sep Adv. Wholesale Inventories 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%; Prior 0.5% revised from 0.7%)
• 10/24 EIA Crude Oil Inventories -1.892M (Prior -3.061M)

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to drift sideways near their unchanged levels as the market digests today's FOMC decision and subsequent comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

While stocks are little changed following Mr. Warsh's press conference, longer-dated Treasury yields are facing upward pressure. The 30-year bond yield, which is particularly sensitive to long-term inflation expectations, is up seven basis points to 5.38%. 

Attention will soon turn to another formidable batch of mega-cap earnings reports after the close, including results from Alphabet (GOOG 321.47, +4.64, +1.46%) and Microsoft (MSFT 529.26, -2.06, -0.39%), which could provide an important test of the market's renewed enthusiasm surrounding AI. Alphabet is trading higher ahead of its Q3 report, with investors looking for continued momentum in its Search and Google Cloud businesses. Google Cloud revenue surged 82% year-over-year last quarter, supported by robust AI demand, but the company's substantial infrastructure spending remains a key concern. Alphabet raised its FY26 capital expenditure outlook to $195-205 billion last quarter, making any updates to spending plans, cloud profitability, and free cash flow particularly important in tonight's report.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%), and DJIA (+0.1%) are oscillating around their flat lines, having settled back into familiar ranges after briefly reaching session highs during the opening moments of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. Stocks initially rallied as Chair Warsh suggested that incoming economic data would help clarify the appropriate path for monetary policy, although his reaffirmation of the Fed's commitment to its 2.0% inflation target subsequently tempered some of that enthusiasm.

Adding to the enthusiasm surrounding AI infrastructure stocks, Oracle (ORCL 145.59, +15.06, +11.54%) is moving sharply higher following an upbeat long-term outlook presented at its Investor Day, helping lift the information technology sector (+0.4%) to session highs before trimming its gain. Oracle reaffirmed its FY27 earnings and revenue guidance while projecting annual revenue growth of more than 35% through FY30, when it expects revenue to reach at least $225 billion. The company also outlined plans to reduce capital expenditures beginning in FY29, when it expects to generate at least $30 billion in positive free cash flow. Importantly, Oracle indicated that it expects to limit additional capital markets funding to $20 billion through FY30, helping ease concerns surrounding the financing requirements of its substantial AI infrastructure investments.

The encouraging outlook is providing an additional lift to other AI infrastructure names, with neocloud operators Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS 178.93, +8.46, +4.96%) and CoreWeave (CRWV 62.59, +3.02, +5.07%) also moving sharply higher.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have backpedaled a bit in immediate reaction to the October FOMC Statement with the Nasdaq (-0.2%) dipping to a fresh session low while the S&P 500 (+0.1%) remains about ten points above its morning low. With the slight recent movement, the benchmark index remains about 30 points, or 0.39%, above its 50-day moving average (7698) while the Nasdaq is about 150 points, or 0.56%, below the 50-day moving average of its own, which was approached at the open of today's session.

While today's statement did not produce a rate hike, it was worded in a way that seems to be laying the groundwork for an expected rate hike in December. It acknowledged that economic activity is expanding at a strong pace, domestic spending has been resilient, capital investment is robust, and the unemployment rate has changed little. It also reiterated that inflation remains elevated and reminded that the Committee intends to deliver price stability.

Fed Chairman Warsh will surely be quizzed at the upcoming press conference about future intentions of the FOMC, but it would be a surprise if he offered any strong clues pertaining to the December meeting.

Treasuries saw some movement in immediate reaction to the directive, but they are essentially unchanged from levels seen before the release with the 2-yr yield up three basis points at 4.77% and the 10-yr yield up four basis points at 5.04%.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices have been in a sideways drift leading up to the FOMC decision, which was just released.

As expected, the FOMC voted to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00%. The decision was not unanimous.

Fed Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissented on the basis of wanting to raise the target range by another 25 basis points.

The stock market's initial reaction to this expected decision has been muted. Attention will now turn to Fed Chair Warsh's press conference, which begins at 2:30 p.m. ET.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain mostly higher this afternoon, continuing to trade in relatively stable ranges ahead of the FOMC decision.

Microsoft (MSFT 526.56, -4.76, -0.90%) remains a notable mega-cap laggard ahead of its earnings report after the close, when investors will be looking for further evidence that the company's substantial AI infrastructure investments are translating into sustained cloud growth. Azure revenue growth and capital expenditures will be particular areas of focus following last quarter's encouraging results. Microsoft has guided for Azure growth of 44-45% in constant currency, while capital expenditures are expected to exceed $50 billion this quarter. With demand continuing to outstrip available cloud capacity, investors will be watching for signs that Microsoft can sustain its growth momentum while limiting additional pressure on profitability.

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market is showing mixed action, with the S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%), and DJIA (+0.3%) holding modest gains shortly after midday. Tech stocks continue to outperform, though the gains are more muted than previous sessions and participation is mixed elsewhere, leaving the major averages in relatively narrow ranges as investors await this afternoon's FOMC decision and another consequential round of mega-cap earnings after the close.

The market opened with encouraging indications from semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks following another round of strong earnings reports, but enthusiasm has been more selective than in the previous two sessions. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (+1.0%) continues to outperform, supported by gains in memory stocks following a strong earnings report from SK hynix Inc. (SKHY 163.70, +18.34, +12.61%), which highlighted robust AI-related demand and expectations for tight memory supplies in the coming years. Micron (MU 968.90, +40.14, +4.32%) and Sandisk (SNDK 1376.38, +71.54, +5.48%) are among the beneficiaries.

The broader information technology sector (+0.3%) is posting only a modest gain, however, as weakness among several mega-cap names offsets strength elsewhere. Microsoft (MSFT 526.96, -4.37, -0.82%) is among the laggards ahead of its earnings report this afternoon. Alphabet (GOOG 320.14, +3.31, +1.04%), meanwhile, is a notable outperformer ahead of its own results, helping keep the communication services sector (+0.2%) in positive territory.

Meanwhile, the energy sector (+0.9%) is among the strongest performers as crude oil prices surge amid renewed concerns about a potential escalation in the conflict with Iran. WTI crude futures are up $3.53 (+3.5%) to $103.43 per barrel, adding upward pressure to Treasury yields. The 10-year note yield has climbed to 5.03%, weighing on the real estate sector (-0.9%), while higher energy prices are also creating a headwind for consumer-facing stocks.

Stocks in the consumer discretionary sector (-0.4%) are under pressure, with Tesla (TSLA 401.37, -6.09, -1.49%) giving back some of yesterday's gains.

Elsewhere, earnings reactions are contributing to sizable moves within the health care and industrials sectors. The health care sector (+0.4%) has surrendered more than half of its earlier advance but remains higher, supported by strong post-earnings gains in Labcorp Holdings Inc. (LH 364.23, +33.06, +9.98%) and GE HealthCare (GEHC 76.15, +5.04, +7.09%). Biotechnology stocks are also outperforming, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) up 1.5%, although Boston Scientific (BSX 42.89, -2.17, -4.82%) remains a notable laggard following disappointing guidance.

The industrials sector (+0.4%) has climbed to its best levels of the session as strength among its earnings winners increasingly offsets weakness elsewhere. Vertiv (VRT 236.30, +27.74, +13.30%) is the S&P 500's top performer following a substantial earnings beat and raised outlook, supported by accelerating demand for AI and data center infrastructure. Fortive (FTV 63.66, +2.04, +3.32%) is also posting a sizable gain, while C.H. Robinson (CHRW 129.17, -14.42, -10.04%), Old Dominion (ODFL 176.26, -10.77, -5.76%), and Lennox Int'l (LII 339.23, -32.82, -8.82%) are among the weakest S&P 500 stocks following their respective earnings reports.

Participation remains mixed, with six S&P 500 sectors trading higher but little momentum across the broader market. The Russell 2000 is flat, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.1%) is posting only a fractional gain.

The subdued trading comes ahead of this afternoon's FOMC decision, with investors widely expecting the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged but looking for further insight into the near-term policy outlook. Earnings reports from several mega-cap technology companies after the close will also provide an important test of the AI investment enthusiasm that has driven the market's rebound this week.

Reviewing today's data: 

• 10/24 MBA Mortgage Applications Index 3.4% (Prior -5.3%)
• Sep Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods -$134.9B (Briefing.com consensus -$128.7B; Prior -$132.1B revised from -$132.6B)
• Sep Adv. Retail Inventories 0.3% (Prior 0.3%)
• Sep Adv. Wholesale Inventories 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%; Prior 0.5% revised from 0.7%)
• 10/24 EIA Crude Oil Inventories -1.892M (Prior -3.061M)

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain little changed from previous levels, even as crude oil surges to session highs.

WTI crude is currently up $3.43 (+3.4%) to $103.33 per barrel, which has pushed Treasury yields to their worst levels of the session, with the 10-year note yield up four basis points to 5.03%.

The energy sector (+1.1%) is now the best-performing S&P 500 sector, steadily moving higher over the past hour and a half following a choppy open.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.2%) and DJIA (+0.3%) continue to hold modest gains, while a mostly lower showing from the "Magnificent Seven" keeps the Nasdaq Composite near its flat line.

The health care sector (+0.8%) continues to lead, supported by strong post-earnings gains in Labcorp Holdings Inc. (LH 365.48, +34.32, +10.36%) and GE HealthCare (GEHC 76.70, +5.59, +7.87%). Strength is relatively broad within the sector, with eleven components reaching fresh 52-week highs and the iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) advancing 2.0%. The outperformance comes despite continued weakness in Boston Scientific (BSX 42.20, -2.86, -6.36%), which has fallen to a four-year low after issuing below-consensus guidance despite beating Q3 expectations.

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market is showing mixed action, with the S&P 500 (+0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%), and DJIA (+0.2%) trading little changed just before midday.

Premarket indications following this morning's batch of earnings reports pointed to another tech-led rally, though the follow-through action has been more subdued. To be fair, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.7%) is outperforming again, as a blowout earnings report from SK hynix Inc. (SKHY 162.50, +17.14, +11.79%) has supported gains in other memory and storage names. However, the action has been choppy, and the broader information technology sector (+0.2%) is little changed for the day amid a mostly lower showing for mega-cap stocks.

Strength is mixed, with six S&P 500 sectors trading higher. The health care sector (+0.9%) is the standout, supported by several notably strong post-earnings moves, while the energy sector (+0.7%) outperforms as crude oil rises $2.52 (+2.5%) to $102.42 per barrel amid mounting concerns about a potential escalation in the conflict with Iran following the midterm elections.

Higher oil prices and modestly higher Treasury yields are weighing on the real estate sector (-0.9%) and adding pressure to the consumer discretionary sector (-0.5%), which is also facing profit-taking in Tesla (TSLA 401.83, -5.63, -1.38%) following yesterday's rally.

Ultimately, today's subdued action reflects some caution ahead of this afternoon's FOMC meeting and a significant round of mega-cap earnings reports after the close.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain little changed from their previous levels.

SK hynix Inc. (SKHY 161.74, +16.38, +11.27%) is rallying following a strong earnings report, providing a lift to other memory-related names such as Micron (MU 970.98, +42.22, +4.55%). SKHY reported record Q3 operating profit and highlighted robust AI-memory demand, stronger pricing, and long-term customer agreements, with management expecting memory demand to outstrip supply through 2030. The strength is supporting the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.6%).

The gains come even as Seagate Tech (STX 671.75, +3.90, +0.58%) trades modestly lower despite beating earnings expectations and issuing above-consensus guidance. STX also highlighted strong hyperscaler demand and improving pricing, although slower sequential shipment growth appears to be tempering enthusiasm. The information technology sector (+0.1%) is little changed overall.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.2%) and DJIA (+0.2%) hold modest gains, while some choppiness across tech stocks keeps the Nasdaq Composite on its flat line.

The industrials sector (-0.1%) is little changed overall, although several components are seeing sizable moves following earnings reports.

Vertiv (VRT 239.37, +30.81, +14.77%) is the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 following a strong beat-and-raise report, with adjusted earnings jumping 78% year-over-year and revenue surging 61% amid accelerating demand for AI and data center infrastructure. The company also reported a sharp increase in orders and raised its outlook, reinforcing optimism surrounding continued investment in AI infrastructure. Fortive (FTV 65.78, +4.17, +6.77%) is another notable outperformer, while GE Vernova (GEV 867.36, -27.72, -3.10%)) is trading lower, highlighting mixed performances among electrical equipment names tied to the data center buildout.

Elsewhere in the industrials sector, C.H. Robinson (CHRW 128.50, -15.09, -10.51%), Old Dominion (ODFL 176.20, -10.83, -5.79%), and Lennox Int'l (LII 344.76, -27.29, -7.34%) are among the S&P 500's worst performers following their respective earnings reports, offsetting strength elsewhere in the sector.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (flat), and DJIA (+0.1%) are little changed shortly after the open, as early momentum in technology stocks fades and mixed performances elsewhere leave the broader market without a clear direction.

The major averages once again opened to a tech led advance, though the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.6%) and the information technology sector (+0.6%) have both given up much of their early gains. Memory names such as Micron (MU 974.82, +46.06, +4.96%) and Sandisk (SNDK 1368.02, +63.18, +4.84%) are among the outperformers after a strong earnings report from SK hynix Inc. (SKHY 161.13, +15.77, +10.85%).

Despite the subdued showing in mega-cap and tech stocks, Alphabet (GOOG 320.59, +3.76, +1.19%) remains a standout ahead of its earnings release after the close, keeping the communication services sector (+0.4%) in positive territory.

Meanwhile, the health care sector (+0.5%) has reversed an opening loss to hold the widest gain among S&P 500 sectors, supported by a strong post-earnings showing from GE HealthCare (GEHC 76.17, +5.06, +7.11%) and a rebound in Moderna (MRNA 215.50, +7.54, +3.62%) after considerable recent weakness. The strength in health care names does not yet extend to other defensive sectors, as the utilities (-0.6%) and consumer staples (-0.4%) sectors remain lower. The real estate sector (-1.2%) continues to struggle this week.

The stock market remains on track for a modestly higher open as technology stocks look to build on this week's gains, helping offset pressure from rising oil prices. The latest round of earnings reports is providing much of the support for technology stocks this morning, with several notable standouts among AI infrastructure names.

The tone is more subdued elsewhere as investors await this afternoon's FOMC decision for further insight into the near-term monetary policy outlook. While the Fed is widely expected to leave its target range unchanged, investors will be paying close attention to any signals regarding the path of interest rates going forward.

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 14 points above fair value.

Asian markets finished broadly higher on Wednesday as renewed AI enthusiasm spread across Japan, China, and South Korea, where the KOSPI surged 6.6% and topped 6,000. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 1.1% for a second consecutive advance, led by Kioxia (+14%), Ibiden (+8%), Taiyo Yuden (+7%), SoftBank Group (+5%), and Advantest (+3%) following another round of AI-related investment announcements in the U.S. China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.9% and the Shenzhen Component rallied 2.0%, with Zhongji Innolight (+10%), Cambricon Technologies (+5%), NAURA Technology (+4%), Eoptolink Technology (+3%), and SMIC (+2%) reversing some of Tuesday's technology weakness as investors also awaited policy signals from the Communist Party's Fifth Plenum. Hong Kong's Hang Seng edged up 0.2%, with Lenovo (+6%) and SMIC (+5%) among the technology leaders, although weakening mainland investment flows limited the broader advance. South Korea's KOSPI soared 6.6% after SK Hynix reported a more than sevenfold increase in third-quarter operating profit, providing tangible earnings evidence behind the AI-demand story, while Samsung Electronics (+6%), KB Financial (+3%), Hyundai Motor (+3%), and LG Energy Solution (+3%) also advanced. The simultaneous strength in Japanese, Chinese, and Korean technology shares marks a notable broadening from Tuesday, when China's technology sector moved sharply against the AI rebound elsewhere in the region. Australia's inflation backdrop remained firm, with Q3 CPI rising 1.3% q/q and 3.9% yr/yr and trimmed-mean inflation accelerating to 3.7% yr/yr, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its policy rate unchanged at 2.75%. Investors now turn to today's Federal Reserve decision and upcoming policy announcements from the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan.

• In economic data:
  • Australia's Q3 CPI increased 1.3% q/q (expected 1.3%; prior 0.6%) and 3.9% yr/yr (expected 3.9%; prior 3.9%).
  • Australia's Q3 Trimmed Mean CPI increased 1.0% q/q (expected 1.0%; prior 0.8%) and 3.7% yr/yr (expected 3.6%; prior 3.6%).
  • Australia's September Monthly CPI Indicator increased 4.3% yr/yr (expected 4.2%; prior 4.0%).
  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its policy rate at 2.75% (expected 3.00%; prior 2.75%).

European markets trade mostly lower as investors sift through a heavy slate of corporate earnings while awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy decision and another round of major U.S. technology results. Germany's DAX slips 0.1%, with Symrise (-12%) plunging after warning of slower organic growth and margin pressure, while Deutsche Bank (+3%) advances following better-than-expected quarterly profits and BASF reverses lower despite raising its full-year guidance. France's CAC 40 eases 0.2%, with Remy Cointreau (-5%) falling despite better-than-expected sales, while Stellantis (+3%) and Danone (+2%) advance following encouraging corporate updates. London's FTSE 100 falls 0.3%, with GSK (-4%) and Unilever (-4%) weighing on the index despite relatively resilient results, while Standard Chartered (+5%) rallies after beating profit expectations. U.K. investors are also awaiting Chancellor John Healey's first Budget later today, while Brent crude's rebound above $115 adds another source of inflation and growth uncertainty across the region. The STOXX Europe 600 falls 0.3% and Spain's IBEX 35 underperforms with a 1.3% decline, extending a volatile stretch for Spanish equities amid lingering pressure on companies with significant Latin American exposure.

• In economic data:
  • Germany's November GfK Consumer Climate fell to -30.8 (expected -30.1; prior -30.6).
  • Switzerland's October ZEW Expectations fell to -15.3 (prior 2.6).
  • Italy's August Industrial Sales decreased 0.9% m/m (prior 1.7%) and increased 4.2% yr/yr (prior 4.9%).
  • Italy's September PPI increased 2.9% m/m (prior 2.4%) and 13.8% yr/yr (prior 10.9%).

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 20 points above fair value.

Just released, September advance wholesale inventories increased 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) following a 0.7% increase in August.

September advance retail inventories increased 0.3% following a 0.3% increase in August.

The September advance international trade deficit in goods widened to $134.9 billion (Briefing.com consensus $128.7 billion) from $132.6 billion in August.

Equity futures point to a mostly higher opening this morning as investors assess another round of corporate earnings and await this afternoon's FOMC decision.

Semiconductor and other AI infrastructure stocks, which have led the market's advance so far this week, are on track for another strong showing following encouraging earnings results, with SK Hynix (SKHY) among the standouts in premarket trading.

However, crude oil prices are also moving higher this morning after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration advised several Gulf nations to prepare for a possible short but intense military campaign against Iran following the midterm elections. The renewed geopolitical concerns are adding some pressure to the broader market.

The market is not anticipating any changes to monetary policy this afternoon, with the CME FedWatch Tool assigning a 90.6% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged.

On the U.S. data front:

• 10/24 MBA Mortgage Applications Index 3.4%; prior -5.3%

Today's remaining economic calendar:

• 8:30 AM ET: September Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods; Briefing.com consensus -$128.7B; prior -$132.6B
• 8:30 AM ET: September Adv. Retail Inventories; prior 0.3%
• 8:30 AM ET: September Adv. Wholesale Inventories; Briefing.com consensus 0.5%; prior 0.7%
• 10:30 AM ET: 10/24 EIA Crude Oil Inventories; prior -3.061M
• 2:00 PM ET: October FOMC Meeting; Briefing.com consensus 3.75-4.00%; prior 3.75-4.00%

In corporate news:

• Visa (V 392.94, -8.92, -2.22%) topped fiscal fourth-quarter earnings expectations on in-line revenue, issued generally in-line fiscal first-quarter growth guidance, and raised its dividend 16%.
• Vertiv (VRT 241.11, +32.55, +15.61%) is a notable premarket gainer after beating third-quarter earnings and revenue expectations, with revenue increasing 61.2% year-over-year.
• SK hynix (SKHY 157.11, +11.75, +8.08%) is higher after beating third-quarter revenue expectations and reporting a more than sevenfold increase in operating profit.
• Aon (AON 313.64, +11.14, +3.68%) is higher after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter earnings on roughly in-line revenue.

Reviewing overnight developments:

According to Nikkei, Asian markets finished broadly higher as renewed AI enthusiasm spread across Japan, China, and South Korea.

In news:

• Technology shares strengthened across the region, with South Korean equities rallying after results from SK hynix (SKHY 157.11, +11.75, +8.08%) provided additional evidence of AI-related demand.
• Investors in China awaited policy signals from the Communist Party's Fifth Plenum.

In economic data:

• Australia's Q3 CPI +1.3% q/q (expected +1.3%; prior +0.6%) and +3.9% yr/yr (expected +3.9%; prior +3.9%)
• Australia's Q3 Trimmed Mean CPI +1.0% q/q (expected +1.0%; prior +0.8%) and +3.7% yr/yr (expected +3.6%; prior +3.6%)
• Australia's September Monthly CPI Indicator +4.3% yr/yr (expected +4.2%; prior +4.0%) Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its policy rate at 2.75% (expected 3.00%; prior 2.75%)

Equity Markets:

• Japan's Nikkei: +1.1%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.2%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +0.9%
• India's Sensex: -0.5%
• South Korea's Kospi: +6.6%
• Australia's All Ordinaries: 0.0%

European markets trade mostly lower as investors review a heavy slate of corporate earnings and await the Federal Reserve's policy decision and major U.S. technology results.

In news:

• U.K. investors are awaiting Chancellor John Healey's first Budget later today.
• Brent crude's rebound above $115 has added to inflation and growth uncertainty in the region.

In economic data:

• Germany's November GfK Consumer Climate -30.8 (expected -30.1; prior -30.6)
• Switzerland's October ZEW Expectations -15.3 (prior 2.6)
• Italy's August Industrial Sales -0.9% m/m (prior +1.7%) and +4.2% yr/yr (prior +4.9%)
• Italy's September PPI +2.9% m/m (prior +2.4%) and +13.8% yr/yr (prior +10.9%)

Equity Markets:

• STOXX Europe 600 : -0.3%
• Germany's DAX : -0.1%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100 : -0.3%
• France's CAC 40 : -0.2%
• Italy's FTSE MIB : -0.1%
• Spain's IBEX 35 : -1.3%

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market finished mostly higher on Tuesday, extending yesterday's rebound as renewed enthusiasm for AI-related stocks fueled another strong showing from technology and other growth-oriented areas. The S&P 500 (+0.6%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.2%) posted solid gains, while the DJIA finished little changed as weakness in several components offset strength elsewhere. Notably, the S&P 500 reclaimed its 50-day moving average (7,696), which it had failed to close above yesterday.

The advance was driven largely by continued buying interest in AI infrastructure stocks, building on yesterday's enthusiasm surrounding Anthropic's potential IPO and substantial AI investment commitments. Reports of a $63 billion financing arrangement to support Anthropic's purchases of Broadcom (AVGO 342.33, +13.16, +4.00%) chips and networking equipment provided another catalyst for semiconductor and AI infrastructure names. The information technology sector (+1.5%) led the market, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+3.6%) extending its recovery from last week's sharp selloff. Broadcom and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 560.26, +28.98, +5.45%) were notable outperformers, while Seagate Tech (STX 667.85, +23.64, +3.67%) rallied ahead of its earnings report after the close.

AI infrastructure names also rebounded sharply, including Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS 170.47, +17.20, +11.22%) and other holdings of the Roundhill Neocloud ETF (NCLD 16.74, +1.36, +8.84%). Oracle (ORCL 130.53, +4.47, +3.55%) benefited from announcements expanding its AI and cloud infrastructure partnerships, including agreements involving OpenAI and Google.

The consumer discretionary sector (+1.4%) also outperformed, supported by gains in Tesla (TSLA 407.46, +15.84, +4.04%) and Amazon (AMZN 253.10, +4.01, +1.61%), while lower oil prices provided an additional tailwind for consumer-facing stocks. The industrials sector (+0.5%) also advanced amid strength in AI infrastructure-related names, although Boeing (BA 168.18, -20.13, -10.69%) was a significant laggard following disappointing earnings and continued losses in its commercial aircraft business. In contrast, Pentair (PNR 62.29, +7.07, +12.80%) was the S&P 500's top performer following its earnings report.

Participation was mixed despite the gains in the major averages, with six S&P 500 sectors finishing higher. Strength in mega-cap growth stocks, reflected in the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+1.1%), helped the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 outperform its equal-weighted counterpart (+0.1%). The Russell 2000 (+1.2%) also posted a solid gain, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.4%) advanced more modestly.

The energy sector (-2.2%) was the weakest performer as crude oil prices retreated and refiners gave back some of their recent gains. WTI crude futures settled $1.89 lower (-1.9%) at $99.87 per barrel. The consumer staples (-0.9%) and real estate (-0.9%) sectors also lagged amid the renewed preference for technology stocks, with Coca-Cola (KO 91.18, -1.52, -1.64%) declining following its earnings report.

Other earnings reactions were mixed, with SoFi Technologies (SOFI 16.40, +1.94, +13.42%), Royal Caribbean (RCL 295.92, +15.32, +5.46%), and UPS (UPS 106.14, +5.82, +5.80%) posting strong gains following their respective quarterly reports.

The market's technology-led rebound comes ahead of tomorrow's FOMC decision, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating a 92.8% probability that rates will remain unchanged. Investors will also receive another consequential round of mega-cap earnings tomorrow after the close, providing an important test of the renewed optimism surrounding AI investment and its potential returns.

U.S. Treasuries recorded slim losses on Tuesday, though the overall trading range remained narrow for the third day in a row, leading into tomorrow's release of the October FOMC Statement. Shorter tenors underperformed slightly, but they still held above their morning lows even though today's $70 billion 5-year note sale met weak demand after yesterday's 2-year note auction that was also underwhelming. The 2-year note yield settled up three basis points to 4.78%, and the 10-year note yield settled up one basis point to 4.99%.

• Nasdaq Composite: +13.9% YTD
• Russell 2000: +13.6% YTD
• S&P 500: +12.8% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +10.7% YTD
• DJIA: +9.0% YTD