[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+1.0%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%), and DJIA (+1.1%) closed near session highs, marking a broad-based advance fueled by rising December rate cut expectations and renewed buy-the-dip interest after yesterday's lows.

Equity futures had pointed to a mixed open, but comments from New York Fed President John Williams (voting FOMC member) helped ignite the rally. He noted, "I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral," sending the CME FedWatch tool's probability of a 25-basis point cut to nearly 75%, up from around 40% prior to his remarks. Boston Fed President Collins (voting FOMC member) echoed a mildly restrictive policy stance, though her comments had little impact on market expectations, leaving the CME FedWatch tool at a 69.5% probability for a December cut, versus 39.1% yesterday.

Several sectors got off to a strong start, including the communication services sector (+2.2%), which would finish with the widest gain of the day. Alphabet (GOOG 299.65, +9.67, +3.33%) posted another solid gain, trading higher even as other mega-cap and tech names struggled this morning. 

The health care sector (+2.1%) was another early standout, with several components hitting fresh 52-week highs as investors continue to pile into the sector amid volatility across growth names. The sector holds a 7.1% gain in November, which is the best among S&P 500 sectors. The S&P 500 itself is down 3.5% over the same time period. 

Meanwhile, the consumer discretionary sector's (+1.7%) gain was fueled by a combination of earnings strength and swelling rate-cut hopes. Ross Stores (ROST 174.00, +13.50, +8.41%) finished with the widest gain across S&P 500 names, trading to a new all-time high after topping earnings estimates and issuing upside guidance. 

Homebuilders were a top beneficiary of today's reinvigorated rate cut expectations. Names such as Lennar (LEN 123.16, +6.91, +5.94%) and D.R. Horton (DHI 146.71, +9.39, +6.84%) captured solid gains, sending the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF 5.0% higher.

Rate-cut optimism also saw the small-cap Russell 2000 (+2.8%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+2.4%) outperform today. 

Despite a hot start from the broader market, the information technology sector (+0.1%) lagged in the early going. The sector was the last to resurface above its flatline after slipping 1.5% this morning. NVIDIA (NVDA 178.88, -1.76, -0.97%), which still finished in negative territory as tech names faced some late selling pressure, held a loss wider than 4.0% this morning. 

The sector held a 1.5% gain in the early afternoon hours but finished just above its baseline. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 0.9% higher as chipmakers (with the exception of NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 203.78, -2.24, -1.09%)) finished mostly higher.

Meanwhile, Oracle (ORCL 198.56, -12.13, -5.76%) finished with the widest loss across S&P 500 names. 

Despite some late-session profit-taking, ten S&P 500 sectors finished with gains, as only the utilities sector (flat) failed to close higher. 

The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+1.9%) decidedly outperformed the market-weighted S&P 500, highlighting that even with a solid index-level turnaround, there remains some caution surrounding the market's largest names. 

Nonetheless, today's broad-based rebound reflects renewed optimism around the possibility of a December rate cut and a willingness among investors to step in after recent weakness. While late-session profit-taking reminds traders of ongoing volatility, the rally indicates investors are cautiously rebuilding confidence after a rough week.

U.S. Treasuries climbed on Friday, building on their gains from this week. The 2-year note yield settled down five basis points to 3.51% (-10 basis points this week) and the 10-year note yield settled down four basis points to 4.06% (-9 basis points this week). 

• Nasdaq Composite: +15.3% YTD
• S&P 500: +12.3% YTD
• DJIA: +8.7% YTD
• Russell 2000: +6.3% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +2.0% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• Flash November S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (actual 51.9; prior 52.5) and flash November S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (actual 55.0; prior 54.8)
• The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for November increased to 51.0 (Briefing.com consensus: 50.3) from the preliminary reading of 50.3 and the final reading of 53.6 for October. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 71.8.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that consumer sentiment continues to be adversely impacted by the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes.

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market is closing in on solid gains to end what has been a tumultuous week for equities. 

The major averages currently hold gains wider than 1.0% as all eleven S&P 500 sectors trade in positive territory. 

The CBOE Volatility Index is down 12.2% to 23.20, suggesting that some of the defensive positioning that defined the earlier part of the week is easing as sentiment stabilizes into the close.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+1.6%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.5%), and DJIA (+1.4%) sit a touch off of session highs as the market enters the final hour of the session. 

NVIDIA (NVDA 181.08, +0.44, +0.24%) shares traded higher in the early afternoon following a Bloomberg report that the Trump administration is considering allowing the company to sell its H200 chips to China. The stock is up just modestly for the day, though it is significantly improved from morning lows that saw shares fall over 4.0%. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (1.79%) is in second place on Friday afternoon, up about 117 points.

Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Old Dominion (ODFL 136.47, +10.18, +8.06%), Align Tech (ALGN 142.83, +10.02, +7.54%), and Gartner (IT 238.11, +13.98, +6.24%) pepper the top of the standings, bucking their recent trends lower as the broader market, too, gets a breather from its recent declines.

Meanwhile, utility firm Vistra Corp. (VST 169.57, -4.22, -2.43%) is near the bottom of the average despite a dearth of corporate news, slipping alongside a modest dip in treasury yields.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (+1.56%) is in second place on Friday afternoon, having followed a broader march to HoDs in recent trading. 

Gold futures settled $19.50 higher (+0.5%) at $4,079.50/oz, as softer U.S. data and dovish Fed commentary revived hopes for a near-term rate cut, prompting some bargain-hunting and haven demand. But the metal still finished the week slightly lower as a firmer dollar and steadier labor readings kept traders cautious about how quickly easing might actually arrive.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up less than +0.1% to $100.26.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.06%) is in first place on Friday afternoon, up more than 485 points.

A look inside the DJIA shows that Merck (MRK 99.38, +4.41, +4.64%), Home Depot (HD 344.43, +12.05, +3.63%), and Sherwin-Williams (SHW 339.49, +11.48, +3.50%) are some of today's best performers.

Meanwhile, Walmart (WMT 105.32, -1.79, -1.67%) slides to the bottom of the average.

The DJIA is poised to end the week -1.93% lower.

Elsewhere, at the top of the hour, Baker Hughes (BKR 48.94, +0.87, +1.81%) announced a weekly U.S. rotary rig count of 554, +5 w/w and -29 yr/yr.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+1.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.1%), and DJIA (+1.4%) sit near session highs as a boost to December rate cut odds and some buy-the-dip interest from yesterday's lows have culminated in a broad-based advance. 

Equity futures pointed to a mixed open this morning, though they rose sharply after New York Fed President John Williams (voting FOMC member) said, "I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral."

The comments boosted the CME FedWatch tool's probability of a 25-basis point rate cut to nearly 75% after hovering near 40% before the commentary. Boston Fed President Collins (also an FOMC voter) told CNBC that she thinks a mildly restrictive policy stance is appropriate right now, though her remarks did little to change the market's expectations. The CME FedWatch tool currently assigns a 69.5% probability to a December rate cut, up from 39.1% yesterday. 

The major averages opened modestly higher, but losses soon began to mount in the information technology sector (+0.5%). The sector was down as much as 1.5% and spent time as the only S&P 500 sector in negative territory. With the broader market posting solid gains, all signs pointed to a rotational trade in play. 

The sector hovered at session lows late in the morning before eventually turning positive just before midday, sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite firmly above their baselines after a mostly lower morning. 

All eleven S&P 500 sectors now trade in positive territory, with seven holding gains wider than 1.0%. 

The health care sector (+2.7%) leads the pack, continuing an impressive run that seats it with a 7.8% month-to-date gain. 

The materials sector (+2.6%) is not far behind, as all of its components trade higher. 

Meanwhile, the consumer discretionary sector (+2.1%) also holds a gain wider than 2.0%. Ross Stores (ROST 172.70, +12.20, +7.60%) holds the best gain among S&P 500 names after a solid beat and raise earnings report, while homebuilders such as D.R. Horton (DHI 147.53, +10.21, +7.44%) and Lennar (LEN 123.58, +7.34, +6.31%) push the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF 5.7% higher. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+2.9%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+2.6%) also outperform amid reinvigorated expectations for further Fed easing. 

So far, the market has embarked on a solid rebound effort from yesterday's lows, with a revitalization of December rate cut odds providing a tangible tailwind. If the market can hold its gains, today's action could signal the start of a turnaround from an otherwise tumultuous week, though it is worth noting that the major averages also logged solid gains yesterday before a sharp reversal set in.

Reviewing today's data:

• The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for November increased to 51.0 (Briefing.com consensus: 50.3) from the preliminary reading of 50.3 and the final reading of 53.6 for October. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 71.8.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that consumer sentiment continues to be adversely impacted by the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes.
• The preliminary November S&P Global U.S. Services PMI registered at 55.0, from a prior level of 54.8.
• The preliminary November S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI registered at 51.9, from a prior level of 52.5.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages hold solid gains, a touch off of session highs just after midday. 

Improvements across mega-cap names played a pivotal role in this morning's turnaround, with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF now holding a 0.9% gain. 

Like many recent sessions, Alphabet (GOOG 297.50, +7.52, +2.59%) is the top-performing "magnificent seven" stock, continuing to ride momentum after a solid Q3 earnings report and headlines of several notable firms increasing their position in the company. 

Alphabet is one of just two magnificent seven stocks that holds a month-to-date gain (+5.2%), the other being Apple (AAPL 270.67, +4.42, +1.66%), which is up 0.1% in November. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+1.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.1%), and DJIA (+1.4%) continue to chart session highs, as all eleven S&P 500 sectors now trade in positive territory. 

Ross Stores (ROST 172.72, +12.22, +7.61%) is the top gain-getter in the S&P 500, reaching a new all-time high after reporting its Q3 (Oct) results last night. It comfortably beat EPS expectations, its largest beat in seven quarters, while revenue also came in above expectations, rising 10.4% to $5.6 billion, its strongest growth in seven quarters. Additionally, after providing Q4 guidance in the previous quarter, it raised its EPS outlook to $1.77-1.85 ($1.74-1.81 prior), comparable sales to +3-4% from +2-3%, and expects sales growth of 6-8%, in line with expectations. 

Though not an S&P 500 component, Gap (GAP 25.23, +2.17, +9.41%) also posted a strong earnings report, contributing to strength across retailer names today. 

Elsewhere in the consumer discretionary sector (+1.8%), homebuilders such as Lennar (LEN 123.34, +7.08, +6.09%) and D.R. Horton (DHI 147.57, +10.25, +7.46%) are trading nicely higher. 

The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF is up 5.7% today, moving it into positive territory for the week. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market opened to modest gains this morning, reversing premarket losses after New York Fed President John Williams (voting FOMC member) said he still sees a path for a December rate cut. 

The CME FedWatch Tool's assigned probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the December meeting now stands at 75.3%, up from around 40% before the comments. 

Participation is strong as a result, with eight S&P 500 sectors holding gains. 

Unfortunately, the information technology sector (-0.6%) is not one of those sectors, though it is well off of its session lows. The PHLX Semiconductor Index is down 0.9%, and NVIDIA (NVDA 178.47, -2.17, -1.20%) continues to struggle despite its stellar earnings report.

Elsewhere in the sector, Oracle (ORCL 194.41, -16.28, -7.73%) is the worst-performing S&P 500 name. 

Improvements in the technology sector have lifted the S&P 500 (+0.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) to their best levels of the session, while the DJIA (+0.7%) maintains its advantage. 

While weakness in tech names certainly limits the gains of the major averages, solid performances across the broader market reflect a rotational trade in play today, which is still a notable improvement from yesterday's retreat that reached nearly every pocket of the market. 

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 (+1.0%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.9%) are mounting a solid rebound effort after yesterday's slide. Breadth figures are positive, with advancers outpacing decliners by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a slimmer 11-to-9 clip on the Nasdaq.  

[BRIEFING.COM] Rotational strength keeps the DJIA (+0.4%) seated firmly with a gain, while the S&P 500 (-0.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%) waver due to weakness in the information technology sector (-1.1%). 

NVIDIA (NVDA 174.93, -5.71, -3.16%) faces sustained pressure, with losses in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 197.90, -8.12, -3.94%) and Micron (MU 194.75, -6.62, -3.29%) pushing the PHLX Semiconductor Index to a 1.9% loss. 

Meanwhile, software giant Oracle (ORCL 195.50, -15.19, -7.21%) faces the widest loss in the sector after closing 6.6% lower yesterday. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%), and DJIA (+0.5%) sit mixed as losses in the information technology sector (-1.0%) weigh against broader market strength. 

The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for November increased to 51.0 (Briefing.com consensus: 50.3) from the preliminary reading of 50.3 and the final reading of 53.6 for October. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 71.8.

The key takeaway from the report is that consumer sentiment continues to be adversely impacted by the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%), and DJIA (+0.4%) opened higher this morning, though the gains are modest in comparison to yesterday's retreat. 

Stocks received a boost after dovish commentary from New York Fed President John Williams (voting FOMC member) reinvigorated hopes of a December rate cut. 

Eight S&P 500 sectors trade higher, led by the communication services sector (+2.1%), which is supported by a strong gain from Alphabet (GOOG 300.34, +10.36, +3.57%). In comparison to other mega-cap names, the stock has been largely resilient to the recent AI momentum unwind. 

The health care sector (+1.0%) has also outperformed this month and continues to see some rotational interest early in today's trade. 

Meanwhile, the information technology sector (-0.3%) oscillates around its flat line.  

The preliminary November S&P Global U.S. Services PMI registered at 55.0, from a prior level of 54.8.

The preliminary November S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI registered at 51.9, from a prior level of 52.5. 

Just released, the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for November rose to 51.0 (Briefing.com consensus: 50.3) from the preliminary reading of 50.3. 

The stock market is now on track for a higher open after New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) said in a speech that he sees room for a near-term adjustment to the target range for the Fed funds rate. 

Futures were mixed prior to the comments, with tech names set for another day of losses. NVIDIA (NVDA 182.17, +1.53, +0.9%) now holds a solid premarket gain after being down an additional 1.0% on top of yesterday's losses. 

While the premarket gains are encouraging, stocks traded higher yesterday in response to NVIDIA's earnings report before a sharp reversal took effect, making the market's ability to maintain today's advance a crucial test of market direction. 

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 36 points above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a broadly lower note. Japan's cabinet office approved an JPY21.3 trln stimulus package, which had been expected. This will be the largest stimulus since the pandemic and it is expected to boost economic growth by nearly 1.5% per year. However, JGB issuance in 2026 is expected to be down compared to 2025. South Korea's exports for the first 20 days of November were up 8.2% year-over-year with chip exports rising 26.5%.

• In economic data:
  • China's October FDI -10.3% YTD (last -10.4%)
  • Japan's October National CPI 0.4% m/m (last 0.1%); 3.0% yr/yr (last 2.9%). October National Core CPI 3.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.9%). October trade balance JPY0 trln (expected deficit of JPY130 bln; last deficit of JPY300 bln). October Imports 0.7% yr/yr (expected -0.7%; last 3.0%) and Exports 3.6% yr/yr (expected 1.1%; last 4.2%). Flash November Manufacturing PMI 48.8, as expected (last 48.2) and flash Services PMI 53.1 (last 53.1)
  • South Korea's October PPI 0.2% m/m (last 0.4%); 1.5% yr/yr (last 1.2%)
  • Singapore's Q3 GDP 2.4% qtr/qtr (expected 1.3%; last 1.7%); 4.2% yr/yr (expected 2.9%; last 4.7%)
  • India's November flash Manufacturing PMI 57.4 (expected 59.0; last 59.2) and flash Services PMI 59.5 (expected 59.7; last 58.9)
  • Australia's flash November Manufacturing PMI 51.6 (last 49.7) and flash Services PMI 52.7 (last 52.5)
  • New Zealand's October trade deficit NZD1.54 bln (expected deficit of NZD955 mln; last deficit of NZD1.384 bln). October Credit Card Spending 1.4% yr/yr (last 0.3%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -2.4%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.4% 
• China's Shanghai Composite: -2.5%
• India's Sensex: -0.5% 
• South Korea's Kospi: -3.8%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -1.7% 

Major European indices are on track for a lower finish to the week. Flash November PMI readings from the region's major economies were mostly disappointing with eurozone's Manufacturing PMI (49.7) dipping back into contraction while Services PMI (53.1) showed a slight uptick in the pace of growth. European leaders are discussing a new peace plan for Ukraine that was proposed by the Trump administration.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's flash November Manufacturing PMI 49.7 (expected 50.1; last 50.0) and flash Services PMI 53.1 (expected 52.8; last 53.0)
  • Germany's flash November Manufacturing PMI 48.4 (expected 49.8; last 49.6) and flash Services PMI 52.7 (expected 54.0; last 54.6)
  • U.K.'s October Retail Sales -1.1% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.7%); 0.2% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last 1.0%). October Core Retail Sales -1.0% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.7%); 1.2% yr/yr (expected 2.5%; last 1.7%). October Public Sector Net Borrowing GBP17.43 bln (expected GBP15.20 bln; last GBP19.89 bln). Flash November Manufacturing PMI 50.2 (expected 49.3; last 49.7) and flash Services PMI 50.5 (expected 51.9; last 52.3)
  • France's November Business Survey 98 (expected 100; last 101). Flash November Manufacturing PMI 47.8 (expected 49.0; last 48.8) and flash Services PMI 50.8 (expected 48.4; last 48.0)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -0.2% 
• Germany's DAX: -0.3% 
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: flat 
• France's CAC 40: +0.1%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.3% 
• Spain's IBEX 35: -1.0%

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 34 points above fair value. 

Futures were boosted following commentary from New York Fed President John Williams (voting FOMC member), in which Mr. Williams expressed he still sees a path to additional easing from the Fed in the near term. 

The CME FedWatch Tool was assigning a 41.4% probability to a 25-basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting before the comments, which now stands at 70.9%, up from 39.1% yesterday. 

Equity futures point to a higher open after yesterday's action saw the major averages close lower due to a sharp intraday reversal from early gains. 

NVIDIA (NVDA 178.76, -1.88, -1.0%) posted a blowout earnings report that sent stocks higher, but the stock and the broader market were unable to sustain the advance. 

NVIDIA remains under pressure, though mega-cap tech as a whole is mixed in the pre-market. 

Stocks face additional headwinds from dwindling expectations for another rate cut from the Fed this year. New York Fed President John Williams (voting FOMC member) broke with the recent trend of hawkish commentary this morning, saying, "I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral."

The comments have stocks at their best pre-market levels this morning as the market tries to stabilize from yesterday's disappointing session. 

In corporate news: 

• AMD (AMD 207.27, +1.25, +0.6%) CEO Lisa Su wants a large portion of the artificial intelligence business, according to The Wall Street Journal. 
• Intuit (INTU 655.55, +18.06, +2.8%) beat EPS expectations by $0.25, beat on revs, and guided JanQ EPS below consensus with revenues above consensus. The company reaffirmed its FY26 EPS guidance and revenue guidance.
• Paramount (PSKY), Netflix (NFLX), and Comcast (CMCSA) all submit bids for Warner Brothers (WBD), according to The Wall Street Journal. 
• T-Mobile US (TMUS 208.48, -2.03, -1.0%) was downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a broadly lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -2.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.4%, China's Shanghai Composite: -2.5%, India's Sensex: -0.5%, South Korea's Kospi: -3.8%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -1.7%.

In news:

• Japan's cabinet office approved an JPY21.3 trln stimulus package, which had been expected. This will be the largest stimulus since the pandemic and it is expected to boost economic growth by nearly 1.5% per year.
• However, JGB issuance in 2026 is expected to be down compared to 2025.
• South Korea's exports for the first 20 days of November were up 8.2% year-over-year with chip exports rising 26.5%.

In economic data:

• China's October FDI -10.3% YTD (last -10.4%)
• Japan's October National CPI 0.4% m/m (last 0.1%); 3.0% yr/yr (last 2.9%). October National Core CPI 3.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.9%). October trade balance JPY0 trln (expected deficit of JPY130 bln; last deficit of JPY300 bln). October Imports 0.7% yr/yr (expected -0.7%; last 3.0%) and Exports 3.6% yr/yr (expected 1.1%; last 4.2%). Flash November Manufacturing PMI 48.8, as expected (last 48.2) and flash Services PMI 53.1 (last 53.1)
• South Korea's October PPI 0.2% m/m (last 0.4%); 1.5% yr/yr (last 1.2%)
• Singapore's Q3 GDP 2.4% qtr/qtr (expected 1.3%; last 1.7%); 4.2% yr/yr (expected 2.9%; last 4.7%)
• India's November flash Manufacturing PMI 57.4 (expected 59.0; last 59.2) and flash Services PMI 59.5 (expected 59.7; last 58.9)
• Australia's flash November Manufacturing PMI 51.6 (last 49.7) and flash Services PMI 52.7 (last 52.5)
• New Zealand's October trade deficit NZD1.54 bln (expected deficit of NZD955 mln; last deficit of NZD1.384 bln). October Credit Card Spending 1.4

Major European indices are on track for a lower finish to the week. STOXX Europe 600: -0.8%, Germany's DAX: -1.0%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.4%, France's CAC 40: -0.3%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.9%, Spain's IBEX 35: -1.4%.

In news:

• Flash November PMI readings from the region's major economies were mostly disappointing with eurozone's Manufacturing PMI (49.7) dipping back into contraction while Services PMI (53.1) showed a slight uptick in the pace of growth.
• European leaders are discussing a new peace plan for Ukraine that was proposed by the Trump administration.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's flash November Manufacturing PMI 49.7 (expected 50.1; last 50.0) and flash Services PMI 53.1 (expected 52.8; last 53.0)
  Germany's flash November Manufacturing PMI 48.4 (expected 49.8; last 49.6) and flash Services PMI 52.7 (expected 54.0; last 54.6)
• U.K.'s October Retail Sales -1.1% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.7%); 0.2% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last 1.0%). October Core Retail Sales -1.0% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.7%); 1.2% yr/yr (expected 2.5%; last 1.7%). October Public Sector Net Borrowing GBP17.43 bln (expected GBP15.20 bln; last GBP19.89 bln). Flash November Manufacturing PMI 50.2 (expected 49.3; last 49.7) and flash Services PMI 50.5 (expected 51.9; last 52.3)
• France's November Business Survey 98 (expected 100; last 101). Flash November Manufacturing PMI 47.8 (expected 49.0; last 48.8) and flash Services PMI 50.8 (expected 48.4; last 48.0)

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market had a tumultuous day as equities faced a sharp intraday reversal, which wiped out the early gains that followed NVIDIA's (NVDA 180.64, -5.88, -3.15%) stellar earnings report. 

Investors eagerly anticipated results from the world's largest company as the AI trade's momentum has stalled as of late. NVIDIA delivered on the hype, cruising past earnings expectations and delivering robust Q4 guidance. 

The S&P 500 (-1.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-2.2%), and DJIA (-0.8%) held gains wider than 1.0%, pushing them back above their 50-day moving averages, which had been violated earlier in the week. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (-4.8%) and Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (-2.0%) were both up around 3.0% as NVIDIA's gain widened to nearly 5.0%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors traded higher as the broader market rallied with strong leadership from the market's largest names. 

Stocks hit a peak just before 11:00 ET, before a relatively sharp sell-off ensued. Some profit-taking was to be expected with such a large swing across the mega-caps, but the retreat broadened to nearly every corner of the market. 

The information technology sector (-2.7%) was hit the hardest, charting session lows through the close as the sector nearly inversed its early gain. Micron (MU 201.37, -24.55, -10.87%) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 206.02, -17.53, -7.84%) were among the names (along with NVIDIA) to push the PHLX Semiconductor Index 4.8% lower, while Oracle (ORCL 210.69, -14.84, -6.58%) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR 155.74, -9.68, -5.85%) also faced outsized losses. 

The industrials (-1.7%), consumer discretionary (-1.7%), materials (-1.6%), and communication services (-1.1%) sectors also faced considerable losses. 

Only the consumer staples sector (+1.1%) closed with a gain today. The sector was boosted from the open by Walmart (WMT 107.11, +6.50, +6.46%) after a solid beat-and-raise earnings report, while the defensive nature of the sector kept it largely resilient to the broader market pullback. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-1.9%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.6%) faced losses similar to that of their larger-cap counterparts. 

Today's batch of economic data painted a mixed picture of the labor market. The September Employment Report saw a 119,000 increase in payrolls, but also included a downward revision to -4,000 for August. There was also an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.4% from 4.3%, so the overall report was not as strong as the headline reading suggested. This will be the final jobs report ahead of the December FOMC meeting since the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the November report until December 16.

All told, today's data facilitated a modest increase in expectations for a December rate cut, though it still remains an unlikely occurrence. The CME FedWatch tool now assigns a 39.6% probability to a 25-basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, up from 30.1% yesterday. 

Today's trade ultimately gives credence to concerns that the most recent run to record highs was too reliant on mega-cap leadership and the promise of an additional easing from the Fed. NVIDIA's inability to sustain gains after a blowout earnings report shows that the market's sentiment around the AI trade is still skewed to the downside, keeping the major averages from holding above the critical 50-day moving average level. 

U.S. Treasuries climbed on Thursday, recovering their slim midweek losses. The 2-year note yield settled down four basis points to 3.56%, and the 10-year note yield settled down three basis points to 4.11%. 

• Nasdaq Composite: +14.3% YTD
• S&P 500: +11.2% YTD
• DJIA: +7.5% YTD
• Russell 2000: +3.4% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: -0.4% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• The September employment report, which is certainly a lagging indicator this time, suggested the labor market was not falling apart in September. In fact, nonfarm payroll gains accelerated to 119,000 after declining by 4,000 in August.
  • This wasn't an abjectly strong report, nor was it an abjectly weak report. We wouldn't call it "just right" either, not with the uptick in the unemployment rate and the stalling out of average weekly hours worked, but the key takeaway is that this report wouldn't be enough to convince the more hawkish-minded Fed officials to cut rates in December.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 decreased by 8,000 to a lowly 220,000. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 8 increased by 28,000 to a not-so-lowly 1.974 million, which is the highest since November 6, 2021.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it corroborates the low firing, low hiring narrative hanging over the labor market.
• Existing home sales increased 1.2% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million (Briefing.com consensus 4.08 million) from a downwardly revised 4.05 million (from 4.06 million) in September. Sales were up 1.7% on a year-over-year basis.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that home sales in October were aided by lower mortgage rates, yet limited inventory in some regions, combined with high prices in others, got in the way of stronger selling activity.
• November Philadelphia Fed Index -1.7 vs. 2.0 Briefing.com consensus; prior -12.8