The stock market remains on track for a higher open to start the week, supported by a sharp slide in oil prices amid a pause in hostilities in the Middle East.

Durable orders rose 0.3% month-over-month in June (Briefing.com consensus 2.0%) after an upwardly revised 4.0% decrease (from -4.5%) in May. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were up 0.6% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%) after increasing an upwardly revised 1.8% (from 1.3%) in May.

The key takeaway from the report is that the headline miss masked upward revisions to readings from May and concealed a 0.9% increase in new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding transportation, which is considered a proxy for business spending. On a year-over-year basis, these orders are up 9.3%.

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 50 points above fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a higher note. Chinese chipmaker CXMT had a strong debut in Shanghai, soaring nearly 500% on its first day of public trading. The approval rating of Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi has fallen below 60% for the first time since she took office. There are some concerns about long-term debt levels and doubts that the big-boned economic plan will deliver promised results. The Bank of Japan is not expected to announce a rate hike later this week, but it is likely to affirm its commitment to more hikes in the coming months. The Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened its policy unexpectedly.

• In economic data:
  • China's June Industrial Profit 18.7% YTD (last 18.8%)
  • Japan's June Corporate Services Price Index 3.2% yr/yr (last 3.4%). May Leading Index 116.5 (expected 116.8; last 116.1)
  • Singapore's June Industrial Production -7.2% m/m (last 6.9%); 7.2% yr/yr (last 17.8%)
  • Hong Kong's June trade deficit HKD52.0 bln (last deficit of HKD44.2 bln). June Imports 45.4% m/m (last 42.0%) and Exports 53.4% m/m (last 40.8%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +0.5%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.0%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +1.2%
• India's Sensex: +1.0%
• South Korea's Kospi: +1.0%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.4%

Major European indices trade in the green. European Central Bank policymaker Kazimir said that a September rate hike is needed even if the outlook improves. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to hold its bank rate steady on Thursday, but some hawkishness is the central bank's commentary is expected. AstraZeneca beat Q2 earnings expectations while Audi lowered its revenue and margin guidance for the year.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's June Private Sector Loans 3.0% yr/yr (expected 3.1%; last 3.0%) and loans to nonfinancials 4.0% yr/yr (last 4.0%)
  • Germany's July ifo Business Climate Index 86.6 (expected 86.1; last 85.7). July Business Expectations 86.7 (last 84.3) and Current Assessment 86.5 (last 87.0)
  • U.K.'s July CBI Distributive Trades Survey -26 (expected -45; last -54)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.7%
• Germany's DAX: +1.7%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.4%
• France's CAC 40: +0.9%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.6%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +1.3%

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 45 points above fair value.

Just released, Durable goods orders increased 0.3% month-over-month in June (Briefing.com consensus: 2.0%) following an upwardly revised 4.0% decrease (from -4.5%) in May.

Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were up 0.6% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.9%) following an upwardly revised 1.8% increase (from 1.3%) in May.

Equity futures point to a higher open this morning after a losing week for stocks in which mega-cap spending plans and higher oil prices pressured the market throughout the week.

Part of this morning's strength is being attributed to some relief on the oil front, with crude oil down $6.13 (-6.8%) to $83.25 per barrel amid reports that President Trump has paused strikes against Iran, with Axios adding that Iran and Oman are discussing a new arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

In addition to monitoring developments on the geopolitical front, investors have another busy week of earnings reports to assess, with four Magnificent Seven names on the calendar.

This week will also feature some consequential events on the macro front as investors brace for the FOMC's decision on Wednesday, followed by another inflation reading on Thursday. Last week's surge in oil prices saw a material uptick in the market's expectation for a rate hike at one of the next meetings.

In corporate news:

• The latest round of White House tariffs is likely here to stay, according to Reuters.
• Apple (AAPL 334.26, +1.24, +0.4%) is lobbying the White House to use Chinese memory chips, but Micron (MU 939.00 (+18.05, +1.9%) is against it, according to The Wall Street Journal.
• NVIDIA (NVDA 208.12, +1.28, +0.6%) is in discussions to provide a $250 billion backstop for an OpenAI data center project in Ohio, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.0%, China's Shanghai Composite: +1.2%, India's Sensex: +1.0%, South Korea's Kospi: +1.0%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.4%.

In news:

• Chinese chipmaker CXMT had a strong debut in Shanghai, soaring nearly 500% on its first day of public trading.
• The approval rating of Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi has fallen below 60% for the first time since she took office.
• There are some concerns about long-term debt levels and doubts that the big-boned economic plan will deliver promised results.
• The Bank of Japan is not expected to announce a rate hike later this week, but it is likely to affirm its commitment to more hikes in the coming months.
• The Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened its policy unexpectedly.

In economic data:

• China's June Industrial Profit 18.7% YTD (last 18.8%)
• Japan's June Corporate Services Price Index 3.2% yr/yr (last 3.4%). May Leading Index 116.5 (expected 116.8; last 116.1)
• Singapore's June Industrial Production -7.2% m/m (last 6.9%); 7.2% yr/yr (last 17.8%)
• Hong Kong's June trade deficit HKD52.0 bln (last deficit of HKD44.2 bln). June Imports 45.4% m/m (last 42.0%) and Exports 53.4% m/m (last 40.8%)

Major European indices trade in the green. STOXX Europe 600: +0.9%, Germany's DAX: +1.6%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.6%, France's CAC 40: +0.9%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.7%, Spain's IBEX 35: +1.5%.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages finished mixed today as a pullback in semiconductor stocks erased much of the broader market's earlier advance. The S&P 500 (+0.1%) managed to close just above the 7,400 level after finding support there throughout the session, while the DJIA (+0.5%) outperformed and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%) lagged under renewed pressure from technology shares.

The broader tone of the session was nevertheless constructive. Crude oil futures settled $2.75 lower (-3.0%) at $89.34 per barrel, while Treasury yields declined modestly across the curve after a Reuters report suggested Pakistan and Iran are considering a new path toward peace talks with the U.S. following intervention from China. That optimism faded somewhat late in the day after The New York Times reported that President Trump met with top advisers to consider a major military escalation in Iran, though oil still finished well below its recent highs.

Participation remained broad beneath the surface despite the mixed finish. Ten S&P 500 sectors closed higher, and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index rose 0.7%, outperforming the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 (+0.1%). The real estate sector (+2.5%) led the advance as lower Treasury yields and a beat-and-raise quarter from Digital Realty Trust (DLR 198.93, +19.59, +10.92%) supported the group, while the materials sector (+1.4%) also stood out behind strong gains from Smurfit Westrock plc (SW 48.57, +4.86, +11.13%) and Int'l Paper (IP 42.19, +4.28, +11.29%).

Technology remained the notable weak spot. The information technology sector (-0.9%) was the only S&P 500 sector to finish lower as the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 4.4%, with AI infrastructure and memory names giving back ground after showing relative resilience following yesterday's hyperscaler capital expenditure announcements. Intel (INTC 92.32, -7.91, -7.89%) also weighed on sentiment after raising its 2026 capital expenditure outlook and indicating spending will increase further in 2027.

The weakness was not uniform across technology, however. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) rose 1.1% as investors did some bargain hunting across software names that came under pressure following earnings yesterday.

Meanwhile, buying interest across the mega-cap complex was relatively muted. Apple (AAPL 333.02, +11.36, +3.53%) stood out as the primary "Magnificent Seven" winner, while Tesla (TSLA 313.03, -6.66, -2.08%) extended yesterday's steep decline. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF slipped 0.3%.

Elsewhere on the earnings front, Verizon (VZ 46.42, +2.60, +5.93%) advanced following a narrow EPS beat, while American Express (AXP 326.28, -14.56, -4.27%) moved lower despite topping earnings expectations after the company maintained, rather than raised, its FY26 guidance.

Looking ahead, investor attention will quickly shift to what will be the busiest week of the second-quarter earnings season, with four "Magnificent Seven" companies set to report alongside Wednesday's FOMC policy decision. Those catalysts should provide greater clarity on both the outlook for AI spending and the path of monetary policy after a volatile week for markets.

U.S. Treasuries ended the week on a higher note, but the shallow Friday bounce only recovered some of yesterday's losses, leaving the complex with solid losses for the week. The 2-year note yield settled down three basis points to 4.33% (+16 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.68% (+14 basis points this week). 

• Russell 2000: +18.1% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +14.5% YTD
• S&P 500: +8.3% YTD
• DJIA: +8.1% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +7.5% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• July S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI - Prelim 53.8; Prior 53.9
• July S&P Global U.S. Services PMI - Prelim 53.6; Prior 51.2
• June New Home Sales 628K (Briefing.com consensus 620K); Prior was revised to 618K from 580K
  • The key takeaway from the report is that new home sales in May were pressured by affordability constraints tied to rising mortgage rates. Notably, the West region, which features the highest-priced homes, saw the biggest hit to sales month-over-month; however, there was also weakness in the more affordable South region, which is the nation's largest homebuilding market.