[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%), and DJIA (+0.4%) recorded modest gains to start the week, trading in a stable range throughout the day amid a relatively quiet session.

There were no material changes surrounding negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, which kept both oil prices and stocks free from any major swings today. Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran were involved in mediated discussions for a potential 45-day ceasefire, but later reports stated that Iran is not interested in a temporary solution.

In a 1:00 p.m. ET press conference, President Trump reiterated his threat of strikes against Iranian power plants and bridges if a deal is not negotiated before the previously imposed deadline of Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. ET. The press conference was relatively devoid of any new developments, and while the major averages dipped toward their baselines in reaction to the threat of further escalation, they quickly reclaimed their modest gains.

Crude oil futures settled today's session $0.77 higher (+0.7%) at $112.25 per barrel.

Strength across the stock market was broad, though the gains were largely modest in nature.

The consumer discretionary sector (+0.8%) notched the widest gain, supported by gains in nearly all of its components that overshadowed a weak showing from Tesla (TSLA 352.82, -7.77, -2.15%).

The energy sector (+0.8%) captured a similar gain amid the modest increase in oil prices.

Memory storage names saw another day of sharp gains after Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its Overweight rating for Seagate Tech (STX 453.30, +23.94, +5.58%) and Western Digital (WDC 304.15, +9.18, +3.11%), helping the PHLX Semiconductor Index finish 1.1% higher while the broader information technology sector gained 0.5%.

Meanwhile, the utilities (-0.4%), health care (-0.4%), and materials (-0.4%) sectors finished modestly lower.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.4%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.4%) posted similar gains to those of the major averages.

Corporate news flow was on the lighter side today, though there was some merger and acquisition activity with Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX 132.48, +0.88, +0.67%) agreeing to acquire Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO 52.26, +12.77, +32.34%) for $53 per share in cash.

Altogether, some lingering optimism remains that a last-minute ceasefire agreement could still be reached. However, a cautious tone continues to prevail, keeping the S&P 500 and DJIA pinned just below their 200-day moving averages, while the Nasdaq Composite remains further behind.

U.S. Treasuries began the week in mixed fashion with relative strength in longer tenors allowing the long bond to reclaim its loss from Friday's abbreviated session while the short end underperformed, extending Friday's losses. Those losses were incurred in reaction to the Employment Situation report for March, which beat headline expectations by a wide margin, masking some softness on the earnings side. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.85%, and the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.33%.

• S&P Mid Cap 400:
• Russell 2000:
• DJIA:
• S&P 500:
• Nasdaq Composite

Reviewing today's data:

• March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 54.0% (Briefing.com consensus 54.9%); Prior 56.1%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the services sector remained in expansion, but the Employment Index returned to contraction while the Prices Index saw its biggest one-month increase in over 13 years. This combination will present a headwind to growth, especially if it persists in the coming months.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to drift just above their baselines with just half and hour left in today's session.

The consumer discretionary sector (+0.6%) has made its way near the top of the sector leaderboard, with Amazon (AMZN 212.27, +2.50, +1.19%) providing solid mega-cap leadership, though Tesla (TSLA 351.76, -8.84, -2.45%) is a notable laggard.

The Vanguard Mega-cap Growth ETF is up 0.3%, which is comparable to the gains across the major averages.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%), and DJIA (+0.2%) continue to trade modestly higher as the market enters the final hour of the session.

President Trump reiterated the Tuesday night deadline for a ceasefire deal with Iran, threatening renewed strikes across energy infrastructure and bridges if a deal is not met.

The news conference did not result in any fundamentally new information, with the situation remaining fluid for the time being. Crude oil futures settled today's session $0.77 higher (+0.7%) at $112.25 per barrel.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.34%) is in second place on Monday afternoon, up about 22 points.

Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Seagate Tech (STX 454.53, +25.17, +5.86%), VeriSign (VRSN 273.54, +13.69, +5.27%), and Starbucks (SBUX 94.27, +3.90, +4.32%) pepper the top of the standings. STX rises after Morgan Stanley made it a Top Pick and raised the price target to $582, citing strong HDD demand, supply tightness, and improving market conditions, while SBUX moves higher after finalizing a joint venture with Boyu Capital giving the firm a 60% stake in China operations, aiming to expand its footprint and grow to 20,000 locations over time.

Meanwhile, Invesco (IVZ 22.83, -1.30, -5.41%) is near the bottom of the average, dipping after BlackRock (BLK 961.58, -4.98, -0.52%) filed to launch a Nasdaq 100 ETF, raising concerns about increased competition and potential fund outflows. The stock also broke below its 200-day moving average, adding technical selling pressure.

[BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours to go on Monday afternoon the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.16%) is narrowly in the lead, up about 34 points.

Gold futures settled $5 lower (-0.1%) at $4,684.70/oz, as stronger U.S. data and persistent inflation concerns reinforce expectations for higher interest rates, weighing on demand for non-yielding assets. Ongoing Middle East tensions are offering limited support, but their impact is being offset by rising oil prices and reduced expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is less than -0.1% lower at $100.01.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.09%) is in last place on Monday afternoon, up about 44 points.

A look inside the DJIA shows that UnitedHealth (UNH 282.38, +5.12, +1.85%), Boeing (BA 211.28, +3.06, +1.47%), and American Express (AXP 303.76, +3.58, +1.19%) show solid gains.

Meanwhile, Amgen (AMGN 342.31, -5.63, -1.62%) is underperforming.

The DJIA is up now about +0.44% month-to-date.

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market is in the midst of a relatively subdued first session of the week, with the S&P 500 (+0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%), and DJIA (+0.1%) trading in a tight range as the market awaits further developments between the U.S. and Iran.

Notably, a deadline looms overhead with President Trump threatening renewed attacks across Iran's infrastructure if a deal cannot be struck by Tuesday. Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran were engaged in negotiations for a 45-day ceasefire, though later reports suggest Iran will not agree to a ceasefire.

President Trump will hold a 1:00 p.m. ET press conference with the military. 

For the time being, the market is supported by solid participation, though the gains are largely modest. Eight S&P 500 sectors trade higher, though none hold gains wider than 1.0%.

The communication services sector (+0.8%) leads the advance as Meta Platforms (META 576.70, +2.24, +0.39%) and Alphabet (GOOG 296.58, +2.12, +0.72%) see an extension of last week's rebound from recent lows, while Paramount Skydance (PSKY 9.86, +0.34, +3.62%) trades sharply higher after The Wall Street Journal reported the company is in discussions to get equity commitments from Saudi wealth funds for the Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 27.41, +0.09, +0.33%) deal.

The financials sector (+0.7%) holds a similar gain, supported by exchange-related names with Coinbase Global (COIN 174.97, +3.51, +2.05%) trading higher as bitcoin rises to its best level in a week.

Meanwhile, the materials (-0.6%), utilities (-0.4%), and health care (-0.3%) sectors lag.

So far, today's action reflects a degree of caution and a hesitation to extend last week's momentum as the market looks for geopolitical updates ahead of tomorrow's deadline imposed by President Trump. Crude oil is currently up $0.74 (+0.7%) to $112.28 per barrel, which is modest in comparison to recent volatility and helps keep things tame at the index level.

Reviewing today's data:

• March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 54.0% (Briefing.com consensus 54.9%); Prior 56.1%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the services sector remained in expansion, but the Employment Index returned to contraction while the Prices Index saw its biggest one-month increase in over 13 years. This combination will present a headwind to growth, especially if it persists in the coming months.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%), and DJIA (+0.3%) remain little changed from previous levels.

Despite relative underperformance across software names (The iShares GS Software ETF is down 0.2%), AppLovin (APP 410.77, +24.40, +6.32%) is one of the best-performing S&P 500 components today in response to several brokerage updates. BTIG raised its revenue estimates for the company while Wedbush confirmed its Outperform rating.

Elsewhere in the information technology sector (+0.3%), Apple (AAPL 259.18, +3.26, +1.27%) is a mega-cap standout today.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to trade in a tight range just above their baselines at midday.

The financials sector (+0.6%) is currently the top-performing S&P 500 sector, one of just two to hold a gain wider than 0.5%.

The sector is supported by s Strong leadership from exchange-related names with Coinbase Global (COIN 176.39, +4.93, +2.88%) leading as bitcoin rises to its highest level in more than a week. Money center banks are also adding support as they extend their bounce from a month-long swoon that started in early February, producing lows in March.

Meanwhile, investment managers such as Blackstone (BX 112.17, -0.88, -0.78%) and Apollo Global Management (APO 106.44, -0.60, -0.56%) trade lower amid persistent worries about private credit exposure.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%), and DJIA (flat) trade mostly higher amid a relatively muted session this morning.

There is a lingering sense of caution as the market awaits further clarity on the state of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Axios reported that discussions are taking place for a potential 45-day ceasefire.

However, Axios reporter Barak Ravid says a U.S. official described Iran's 10-point response as 'maximalist,' casting doubt on progress toward a deal.

Additionally, President Trump's deadline for a deal expires tomorrow, with the president signaling a willingness to escalate attacks on Iranian infrastructure if a deal is not struck. For the time being, oil prices are modestly higher today, with crude oil currently up $0.89 (+0.8%) to $112.43 per barrel as the market awaits further clarity.

President Trump will give a military address at 1:00 p.m. ET today.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to trade modestly higher. 

Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX 130.00, -1.60, -1.22%)  is trading lower after announcing its acquisition of Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO 52.20, +12.70, +32.17%) for $52/share in cash, representing a 34% premium to SLNO's April 2 close.

While the deal adds a compelling growth asset, the stock's negative reaction likely reflects investor concerns around deal cost, execution risk, and the strategic expansion beyond NBIX's core neuroscience focus. The transaction is expected to be financed through a combination of cash on hand and new debt, which may also be weighing on sentiment given balance sheet considerations.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%), and DJIA (+0.4%) now trade higher across the board as strength in the broader market has widened to now include nine S&P 500 sectors.

The ISM Services PMI hit 54.0% in March (Briefing.com consensus 54.9%), down from 56.1% in February. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the March reading reflects services sector activity growing at a slower pace than the prior month, when activity expanded at a pace not seen since July 2022.

The key takeaway from the report is that the services sector remained in expansion, but the Employment Index returned to contraction while the Prices Index saw its biggest one-month increase in over 13 years. This combination will present a headwind to growth, especially if it persists in the coming months.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%), and DJIA (flat) are ticking mostly higher this morning as investors continue to monitor developments on the geopolitical front.

CNBC recently reported that it is now unlikely that the U.S. and Iran will agree to a ceasefire. The market will look for further clarity from President Trump at a 1:00 p.m. ET military press conference this afternoon.

Even with the lingering uncertainty, stocks are off to a decent start as gains across some of the market's largest names outweigh mixed strength in the broader market.

The top-weighted information technology sector (+0.6%) holds a nice gain, while mega-cap leadership helps the communication services (+0.8%) and the consumer discretionary (+0.7%) sectors outperform.

Just released, the ISM Services PMI checked in at 54.0% in March (Briefing.com consensus: 54.9%), down from 56.1% in February.

Equity futures point to a modestly higher start to the first full week of the second quarter.

The intense focus on developments in the Middle East has drawn attention away from the Employment Situation report for March, which was released on Friday morning and handily beat expectations. The report showed much stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (178,000; Briefing.com consensus 51,000) and Nonfarm Private Payrolls (186,000; Briefing.com consensus 51,000), a dip in the Unemployment Rate (4.3%; Briefing.com consensus 4.4%; prior 4.4%), below-consensus Average Hourly Earnings growth (0.2%; Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.4%), and a dip in Average Workweek (34.2; Briefing.com consensus 34.3; prior 34.3).

The report also revealed some sizable revisions to past readings with February nonfarm payrolls revised down to -133,000 from -92,000 and nonfarm private payrolls revised down to -129,000 from -86,000. Meanwhile, nonfarm payrolls for January were revised up to 160,000 from 126,000 and nonfarm private payrolls were revised up to 180,000 from 146,000.

While this report won't help the case for a rate cut, it should soothe some of the recent concerns about the labor market that resulted from the weak February report.

The S&P 500 futures currently trade three points above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mixed note while markets in China, Hong Kong, Australia, and New Zealand were closed for holidays. Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi will travel to Australia to secure Japan's rare earth supply chain and discuss cooperation regarding the Strait of Hormuz. China's government reported that its consumer goods trade-in program generated revenue of CNY433 bln in Q1. India purchased its first shipment of crude oil from Iran since 2019.

• In economic data:
  • India's March Services PMI 57.5 (expected 57.2; last 57.2)
  • Singapore's February Retail Sales -4.1% m/m (last 6.0%); 8.3% yr/yr (last -0.5%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +0.6%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: HOLIDAY
• China's Shanghai Composite: HOLIDAY
• India's Sensex: +1.1%
• South Korea's Kospi: +1.4%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: HOLIDAY

Major European markets remain closed for Easter, scheduled to reopen tomorrow. The overall narrative has remained focused on the developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict with Iran facing a Tuesday deadline to loosen its grip on maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz or face crippling strikes on its bridges and energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is split on a best approach to the oil-related inflationary spike, according to FT. The Bank of Italy trimmed its 2026 growth forecast to 0.5% from 0.6% while the outlook for 2027 was reduced to 0.5% from 0.8%.

• In economic data:
  • Spain's March Unemployment Change -22,900 (expected 10,300; last 3,600)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: HOLIDAY
• Germany's DAX: HOLIDAY
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: HOLIDAY
• France's CAC 40: HOLIDAY
• Italy's FTSE MIB: HOLIDAY
• Spain's IBEX 35: HOLIDAY

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 13 points above fair value.

Netflix (NFLX 100.51, +1.85, +1.9%) trades nicely higher in the premarket after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral, with a target price of $120.

Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening this morning after the major averages finished little changed on Friday, though the indices captured gains of 3.0% or wider for the week.

Last week's rally was supported by some optimism that a ceasefire could be reached between the U.S. and Iran, as well as commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who noted that inflation expectations remain well anchored past the near term.

Developments on the geopolitical and energy fronts continue to drive headlines this morning, with Axios reporting that the U.S., Iran, and mediators are discussing a 45-day ceasefire agreement that could lead to the end of the war, though sources say the chances of striking a deal are slim.

President Trump said that if a deal is not reached by the Tuesday deadline, Iran will face a new wave of attacks against infrastructure sites.

Crude oil is down modestly to around $110 per barrel, though Bloomberg reports that Iran has rejected opening the Strait of Hormuz as a part of any ceasefire deal.

Elsewhere, corporate news flow is once again on the lighter side, coming off the long weekend, with Q1 earnings season looming ahead.

The 10:00 a.m. ET release of the ISM Services PMI (Briefing.com consensus 54.9%) is the only economic data release of note on today's calendar.

In corporate news:

• Strait of Hormuz traffic has reached its highest level in weeks, according to Bloomberg.
• Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO 52.46, +12.97, +32.8%) to be acquired by Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX 128.00,-3.60, -2.7%) for $53.00 per share
• Tesla (TSLA 364.00, +3.41, +1.0%) saw its March South Korea sales increase by 300%, according to Reuters.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mixed note while markets in China, Hong Kong, Australia, and New Zealand were closed for holidays. Japan's Nikkei: +0.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: HOLIDAY, China's Shanghai Composite: HOLIDAY, India's Sensex: +1.1%, South Korea's Kospi: +1.4%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: HOLIDAY.

In news:

• Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi will travel to Australia to secure Japan's rare earth supply chain and discuss cooperation regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
• China's government reported that its consumer goods trade-in program generated revenue of CNY433 bln in Q1.
• India purchased its first shipment of crude oil from Iran since 2019.

In economic data:

• India's March Services PMI 57.5 (expected 57.2; last 57.2)
• Singapore's February Retail Sales -4.1% m/m (last 6.0%); 8.3% yr/yr (last -0.5%)

Major European markets remain closed for Easter, scheduled to reopen tomorrow.

In news:

• The overall narrative has remained focused on the developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict with Iran facing a Tuesday deadline to loosen its grip on maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz or face crippling strikes on its bridges and energy infrastructure.
• Meanwhile, the Bank of England is split on a best approach to the oil-related inflationary spike, according to FT.
• The Bank of Italy trimmed its 2026 growth forecast to 0.5% from 0.6% while the outlook for 2027 was reduced to 0.5% from 0.8%.

In economic data:

• Spain's March Unemployment Change -22,900 (expected 10,300; last 3,600)

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages had a choppy morning as this week's optimism surrounding a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran faded, although the S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%), and DJIA (-0.1%) rebounded from their opening lows to finish little changed.

The stock market opened to broad losses after President Trump said in a speech last night that the U.S. will continue strikes against Iran if a deal is not reached. Oil prices moved sharply higher in response, with crude oil futures settling today's session $11.34 higher (+11.3%) at $111.48 per barrel.

After opening with losses of 1.0% or more, the major averages rebounded sharply to flatline levels roughly an hour into the session following a Bloomberg report that Iran and Oman are drafting a proposal related to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Following the early geopolitical volatility, stocks had a relatively muted session, with the major averages drifting near their flatlines through the afternoon. Strength was mixed, with six S&P 500 sectors charting gains.

The real estate sector (+1.5%) finished as the best-performing S&P 500 sector as Treasuries stabilized from earlier losses.

Gains elsewhere were modest in comparison, though the relative outperformance of the top-weighted information technology sector (+0.7%) boosted the major averages in the final half hour of the session. The sector opened sharply lower as mega-cap and tech stocks gave back some of their prior strength this morning. Sentiment improved throughout the session, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.4%) finished modestly higher after opening to considerable losses, with Intel (INTC 50.38, +2.35, +4.89%) a standout.

Ciena (CIEN 447.83, +32.44, +7.81%), Lumentum (LITE 826.88, +62.23, +8.14%), and Coherent (COHR 258.19, +10.39, +4.19%) were the top-performing S&P 500 components today.

Elsewhere, the consumer discretionary sector (-1.5%) was unable to shake off the early weakness, which was due in part to Tesla (TSLA 360.56, -20.70, -5.43%) trading sharply lower after disappointing with its Q1 deliveries.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.7%) outperformed, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.1%) finished flattish.

Ultimately, the major averages finished with solid week-to-date gains, though previous weakness keeps the indices below their 200-day moving averages. This week's strength was largely a result of a short-term improvement in sentiment regarding geopolitical hostilities and a reaction to oversold conditions, but uncertainty around the situation in Iran and elevated oil prices keep the market on a cautious footing heading into the long weekend.

Next week will also feature a heavy slate of economic data that includes several key inflation readings.

To that point, the market will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

U.S. Treasuries recorded slim gains on Thursday, putting together a resilient showing from a modestly lower start to the trading day. The 2-year note yield finished unchanged at 3.80% (-12 basis points week-to-date), and the 10-year note yield settled down one basis point to 4.31% (-13 basis points week-to-date). 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +3.1% YTD
• Russell 2000: +1.9% YTD
• DJIA: -3.2% YTD
• S&P 500: -3.8% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -5.9% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly Initial Claims 202K (Briefing.com consensus 215; Prior was revised to 211K from 210K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.841 mln; Prior was revised to 1.816 mln from 1.819 mln
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that initial claims remain near the 200,000 mark, reflecting a low-firing environment.
• February Trade Balance -$57.3 bln (Briefing.com consensus -$55.8 bln); Prior was revised to -$54.7 bln from -$54.5 bln
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that February imports grew more than exports even though February nonfuel import prices (+1.1%) increased at a slower pace than non-agricultural export prices (+1.7%).