Briefing.com

Stock Market Update

Updated: 29-Sep-26

The market at 16:20 ET
Dow: -131.59...
Nasdaq: -22.84... S&P: -12.85...
NYSE Vol: 1.19 bln.. Adv: 1130.. Dec: 1589
Nasdaq Vol: 7.12 bln.. Adv: 1802.. Dec: 2650
Moving the Market Sector Watch


--Lower oil prices amid a promising oil export report from the Middle East, Treasury yields still modestly higher

--Some rebound action across semiconductor stocks

--Market recovers from session lows amid some dovish Fed commentary
Strong: Utilities, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials

Weak: Health Care, Energy, Consumer Staples, Financials, Materials
16:20 ET Dow -131.59 at 51349.83, Nasdaq -22.84 at 26818.58, S&P -12.85 at 7670.94

[BRIEFING.COM] Tuesday's session ended with modest losses for the major averages, but the relatively quiet finish belied another weak showing beneath the surface. The S&P 500 (-0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%), and DJIA (-0.3%) recovered from their midday lows, aided by semiconductor strength and a late-afternoon lift following remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, while participation remained weak across the broader market.

Stocks initially hovered near their flat lines before selling became more pronounced late in the morning. The retreat came despite a sizable decline in crude oil, which had provided some early encouragement following a report indicating that Middle Eastern oil exports have recovered to around their highest levels since the Iran war began, suggesting Iran could be losing some leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude ultimately settled $3.18 lower (-3.4%) at $89.26 per barrel.

The decline removed some of the pressure that elevated energy prices have recently placed on the market, but stocks derived relatively little benefit as elevated Treasury yields remained a notable counterweight.

The major averages received a late-afternoon boost following remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, a voting FOMC member, who said there is "no need for urgency" following the Fed's September policy action and that policymakers have time to gather additional information. The comments prompted markets to dial back expectations for another rate hike at the October FOMC meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing the implied probability of a hike falling to 49.3% from 70.9% yesterday.

Semiconductors provided one of the session's clearest sources of support. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 1.3%, bucking a 0.3% decline in the information technology sector and helping limit the Nasdaq's loss. Semiconductor-linked names such as Bloom Energy (BE 291.25, +28.38, +10.80%) also contributed to relative strength in the industrials sector (+0.2%), which was one of only four S&P 500 sectors to finish higher. A White House meeting attended by a number of prominent AI industry executives drew attention during the afternoon, with discussion touching on industry self-regulation and cooperation with local communities on data-center development, although the event did not produce a meaningful reaction in the market.

The utilities sector (+1.1%) stood comfortably atop the sector standings, rebounding from a weaker showing yesterday. The communication services sector (+0.4%) also outperformed, supported by a rebound in Meta Platforms (META 738.96, +23.34, +3.26%) after the stock gave back some of last week's double-digit advance during Monday's session.

The consumer discretionary sector (+0.1%) rounded out the positive side of the ledger, benefiting from several pronounced stock-specific gainers. Carvana (CVNA 63.63, +3.16, +5.23%) rallied alongside CarMax (KMX 59.26, +2.72, +4.80%) following the latter's better-than-expected Q2 report, while cruise-line stocks moved sharply higher. Carnival (CCL 25.14, +3.00, +13.53%) was a standout after reporting better-than-expected earnings and record Q3 revenue, with the broader cruise group also benefiting from the sharp decline in oil prices.

Conversely, the energy sector (-0.9%) finished at the bottom of the standings as crude oil retreated. The consumer staples sector (-0.5%) was another notable underperformer, with Walmart (WMT 106.83, -1.90, -1.75%) weighing on the group and the price-weighted DJIA after Target (TGT 156.45, -1.98, -1.25%) announced permanent price reductions on nearly 2,000 apparel, footwear, accessories, and home products ahead of the holiday season, raising the prospect of increased pricing pressure across general merchandise.

Fair Isaac (FICO 616.72, -224.17, -26.66%) was another major laggard and the worst-performing S&P 500 component. The stock plunged after FHFA Director Bill Pulte said Fannie Mae (FNMA 4.13, -0.27, -6.14%) and Freddie Mac (FMCC 3.81, -0.19, -4.81%) will move to a single pricing grid incorporating VantageScore alongside the existing FICO Classic model, increasing competition in a market where FICO has long held a dominant position.

The weakness extended beyond the large-cap indices, with the Russell 2000 falling 0.4% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 declining 0.1%. Only four S&P 500 sectors finished higher, reinforcing the disconnect between the relatively modest losses in the major averages and the weaker performance across much of the market. Strength in semiconductors and a handful of other pockets helped contain the index-level declines, but the lack of broader participation remains a concern alongside elevated Treasury yields.

Attention now turns to a busy slate of economic data Wednesday morning, headlined by the August Personal Income and Spending report. The headline PCE Price Index is expected to increase 0.4% month-over-month, while the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise 0.3%. With Treasury yields remaining elevated and market participation continuing to lag, the inflation data will provide another important test for a market that has become increasingly sensitive to the interest-rate outlook.

U.S. Treasuries finished mixed after yields climbed sharply despite falling oil prices. The 10-year yield reached 5.29%, while the 30-year yield hit its highest level since 2002 at 5.62%, before yields retreated in the afternoon after New York Fed President Williams said there was no need for urgency following the Fed's September rate hike. The 2-year note yield settled down four basis points to 4.89%, and the 10-year note yield settled up one basis point to 5.26%. 

  • Nasdaq Composite: +15.3% YTD
  • Russell 2000:+13.3% YTD
  • S&P 500: +12.1% YTD
  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +9.5% YTD
  • DJIA: +6.8% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

  • Jul FHFA Housing Price Index 0.3% (Prior 0.0%)
  • Jul S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 2.5% (Prior 2.2% revised from 2.1%)
  • The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 81.9 in September (Briefing.com consensus 90.0) from a downwardly revised 88.6 (from 89.4) in August. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 95.6.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that consumer confidence weakened for both present conditions and the six-month outlook, with elevated prices for goods and services factoring into that assessment.
  • Aug JOLTs - Job Openings 7.079M (Briefing.com consensus 7.150M; Prior 7.335M revised from 7.271M)
..NYSE Adv/Dec 1130/1589. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1802/2650.
15:25 ET Dow -124.52 at 51356.9, Nasdaq -4.75 at 26836.67, S&P -9.40 at 7674.39

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (flat), and DJIA (-0.2%) remain mostly lower near their flat lines with just half an hour left in Tuesday's session.

Crude oil futures settled $3.18 lower (-3.4%) at $89.26 per barrel, though the stock market's response to the sizable decline has been relatively muted. Participation has remained weak throughout the afternoon, even as the major averages have recovered somewhat from their midday levels.

The market will have a full slate of economic data to digest tomorrow morning, headlined by the August Personal Income and Spending report and its PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The headline PCE Price Index is expected to increase 0.4% month-over-month, while the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise 0.3%.

..NYSE Adv/Dec 982/1674. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1712/2667.
14:55 ET Dow -155.69 at 51325.73, Nasdaq +11.18 at 26852.6, S&P -7.88 at 7675.91

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (flat), and DJIA (-0.3%) are back near their flat lines as the market enters the final hour of the session.

Stocks received a nice bump higher right at 2:00 p.m. ET following remarks from New York Fed President John Williams (voting FOMC member). Mr. Williams said, "As I consider the future path of monetary policy, I will continue to assess the underlying trends in inflation and the balance of supply and demand in the economy. With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information."

Expectations for the Fed to keep rates on hold at the October FOMC meeting have increased in response, with the CME FedWatch Tool now assigning a 48.5% probability to no change in rates, up from 29.1% before Mr. Williams' remarks.

..NYSE Adv/Dec 895/1762. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1571/2769.
14:30 ET Dow -191.94 at 51289.48, Nasdaq -34.57 at 26806.85, S&P -14.62 at 7669.17

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.19%) is down about 15 points this afternoon, in second place among the major averages.

Briefly, S&P 500 constituents United Rentals (URI 1006.21, -37.71, -3.61%), lululemon athletica (LULU 97.15, -3.43, -3.41%), and FactSet (FDS 258.59, -9.08, -3.39%) pepper the bottom of the average by today's broad risk-off move as Treasury yields surge to multiyear highs, while LULU also faces lingering concerns over its weaker outlook and product demand.

Meanwhile, Cboe Global Markets (CBOE 268.77, +15.51, +6.12%) is near the top of the standings after securing a 25-year extension of its exclusive S&P 500 options licensing agreement, removing a major competitive and terminal-value overhang and supporting long-term growth prospects.

..NYSE Adv/Dec 875/1854. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1788/3100.
14:00 ET Dow -274.12 at 51207.3, Nasdaq -85.11 at 26756.31, S&P -27.43 at 7656.36

[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.32%) is in "first" place on Tuesday afternoon, down about 85 points, with more aggressive losses being had elsewhere.

Gold futures settled $11.30 higher (+0.3%) at $4,179.70/oz, after Monday's sharp selloff, with the rebound appearing largely corrective as investors took profits and the metal recovered from a seven-week low. However, rising Treasury yields, a firm dollar and expectations for additional Fed rate hikes continued to limit upside, keeping investors focused on upcoming inflation and jobs data.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is now +0.4% to $101.60.

..NYSE Adv/Dec 778/1944. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1593/3263.
13:30 ET Dow -302.53 at 51178.89, Nasdaq -52.19 at 26789.23, S&P -24.30 at 7659.49

[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.59%) is down about 302 points, today's top declining major average.

A look inside the DJIA shows that Walmart (WMT 105.83, -2.90, -2.67%), Apple (AAPL 331.56, -6.84, -2.02%), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 266.60, -5.35, -1.97%) are underperforming.

Meanwhile, Boeing (BA 188.33, +3.94, +2.14%) is today's top gain getter.

The DJIA is now -3.77% lower month-to-date.

..NYSE Adv/Dec 779/1954. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1591/3270.
12:55 ET Dow -292.39 at 51189.03, Nasdaq -45.08 at 26796.34, S&P -21.07 at 7662.72

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have drifted lower into midday after spending much of the morning near their unchanged levels, as deteriorating breadth and persistently elevated Treasury yields outweigh support from lower oil prices and a rebound in semiconductor stocks. The S&P 500 (-0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%), and DJIA (-0.6%) are all in negative territory, with the Nasdaq holding up somewhat better thanks to strength across the semiconductor group.

Some early support came from declining crude oil prices following an encouraging report on Middle Eastern oil exports, which suggested Iran could be losing some of its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil has continued to weaken and now sits near its lows for the day, down $2.25 (-2.4%) to $90.35 per barrel. However, the decline in oil prices has done little to lift the broader market.

Similar to yesterday's session, Treasury yields remain elevated despite the retreat in crude, with the 10-year note yield up three basis points to 5.28%. The continued pressure in the bond market has limited the benefit to equities from falling oil prices.

Participation has deteriorated considerably from the relatively balanced action seen shortly after the open. Decliners now outpace advancers by more than 2-to-1 on the NYSE and nearly 2-to-1 on the Nasdaq, reflecting broader weakness than the relatively modest declines in the major averages suggest.

Semiconductor stocks are a notable exception after struggling in yesterday's session. The PHLX Semiconductor Index is up 1.5%, helping the information technology sector(flat) remain near its flat line and providing support to the Nasdaq. Semiconductor-linked names are also contributing to relative strength in the industrials sector (-0.1%). Investors are additionally awaiting any potential developments from a high-profile White House lunch hosted by President Trump and attended by a number of prominent executives.

The utilities sector (+0.3%) is the only &P 500 sector that remains in positive territory, while the consumer discretionary sector (flat) is another relative outperformer. Several pronounced stock-specific movers are helping the latter, including Carvana (CVNA 63.53, +3.06, +5.06%), which is rallying alongside CarMax (KMX 59.14, +2.59, +4.58%) after the company's Q2 report featured better-than-expected earnings and revenue and a sharp acceleration in comparable retail used unit sales.

Cruise-line stocks are another pocket of strength in the consumer discretionary sector. Carnival (CCL 24.94, +2.80, +12.62%) is surging after reporting better-than-expected Q3 earnings and record revenue, while strong booking trends reinforced signs of resilient demand. Cruise stocks more broadly are moving sharply higher, with today's decline in crude oil providing an additional tailwind for the fuel-sensitive group.

Conversely, yesterday's defensive outperformers are among today's weakest areas. The health care (-1.0%) and consumer staples (-0.9%) sectors sit near the bottom of the standings. Walmart (WMT 105.75, -2.98, -2.74%) is a significant drag on the consumer staples sector and the price-weighted DJIA after Target (TGT 155.87, -2.56, -1.62%) announced permanent price reductions on nearly 2,000 apparel, footwear, accessories, and home products ahead of the holiday season. The move raises the prospect of more aggressive pricing across general merchandise at a time when consumers are displaying increased sensitivity to value.

Fair Isaac (FICO) is another notable laggard and the worst-performing S&P 500 component. The stock is plunging after FHFA Director Bill Pulte said Fannie Mae (FNMA 4.10, -0.30, -6.88%) and Freddie Mac (FMCC 3.78, -0.22, -5.58%) will move to a single pricing grid incorporating VantageScore alongside the existing FICO Classic model, increasing competition in a market where FICO has long held a dominant position. Rocket Companies (RKT 11.65, +0.01, +0.09%) meanwhile, said it will adopt VantageScore 4.0 as the default model for all eligible loans beginning in the fourth quarter.

On the policy front, Fed Governor Michael Barr, a voting FOMC member, has maintained that further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to return inflation to the Fed's target in a timely manner. The message is consistent with the elevated rate environment that continues to weigh on equities even as today's retreat in crude oil eases one source of inflation concern.

Overall, the relatively modest losses in the major averages understate the weaker tone across much of the market. Semiconductor strength and several pronounced stock-specific gainers are providing pockets of support, but deteriorating breadth and elevated Treasury yields have prevented stocks from capitalizing on a sizable decline in crude oil.

Reviewing today's data:

  • Jul FHFA Housing Price Index 0.3% (Prior 0.0%)
  • Jul S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 2.5% (Prior 2.2% revised from 2.1%)
  • The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 81.9 in September (Briefing.com consensus 90.0) from a downwardly revised 88.6 (from 89.4) in August. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 95.6.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that consumer confidence weakened for both present conditions and the six-month outlook, with elevated prices for goods and services factoring into that assessment.
  • Aug JOLTs - Job Openings 7.079M (Briefing.com consensus 7.150M; Prior 7.335M revised from 7.271M)
..NYSE Adv/Dec 742/1885. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1469/2713.
12:25 ET Dow -299.64 at 51181.78, Nasdaq -32.79 at 26808.63, S&P -20.77 at 7663.02

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%), and DJIA (-0.6%) remain pinned below their base lines as participation continues to deteriorate from this morning's mixed strength.

Carnival (CCL 24.94, +2.80, +12.62%) is a notable outperformer after its Q3 report featured better-than-expected earnings and record revenue of $8.4 billion, with resilient demand and strong execution helping offset higher fuel costs. Booking trends strengthened during the quarter, with 2027 already half booked at record occupancy and pricing and customer deposits reaching a record $7.6 billion. Carnival also exceeded its June guidance for yields and ex-fuel costs, reinforcing signs that stronger demand is translating into improved operating performance.

The strength is extending across the cruise-line group, with peers Royal Caribbean (RCL 257.12, +14.53, +5.99%) and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 14.87, +0.56, +3.91%) also outperforming. Lower oil prices are providing an additional tailwind for the fuel-sensitive industry today.

..NYSE Adv/Dec 797/1823. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1458/2672.
11:55 ET Dow -312.23 at 51169.19, Nasdaq -48.76 at 26792.66, S&P -24.12 at 7659.67

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain at session lows at midday.

Fair Isaac (FICO 616.53, -224.36, -26.68%) is the worst-performing S&P 500 component today following a mortgage-pricing announcement from FHFA Director Bill Pulte. Pulte said Fannie Mae (FNMA 4.32, -0.08, -1.82%) and Freddie Mac (FMCC 3.96, -0.04, -1.00%) will move to a single pricing grid that incorporates VantageScore alongside the existing FICO Classic model, increasing competition in a market where FICO has long held a dominant position. Additionally, Rocket Companies (RKT 11.74, +0.10, +0.82%) said it will adopt VantageScore 4.0 as the default model for all eligible loans beginning in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, Walmart (WMT 105.82, -2.91, -2.68%) is the worst-performing Dow component after Target (TGT 155.71, -2.72, -1.72%) announced permanent price reductions on nearly 2,000 apparel, footwear, accessories, and home products ahead of the holiday season. The move arrives as September consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 2014, signaling that increasingly budget-conscious shoppers may require deeper value propositions before spending on discretionary categories. Target's initiative could pressure Walmart to remain aggressive on general-merchandise pricing, potentially squeezing margins even as lower prices help defend traffic, market share, and its value-leader positioning.

..NYSE Adv/Dec 804/1798. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1497/2552.
11:25 ET Dow -318.21 at 51163.21, Nasdaq -46.84 at 26794.58, S&P -23.58 at 7660.21

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%), and DJIA (-0.7%) are moving lower just before midday amid a subdued session that has kept the major averages relatively close to their unchanged levels throughout the morning.

Breadth has deteriorated after advancers and decliners were nearly even for much of the morning. Decliners now outpace advancers by roughly 2-to-1 on the NYSE and a roughly 3-to-2 ratio on the Nasdaq.

As a result, only two S&P 500 sectors remain in positive territory, though a modestgain in the top-weighted information technology sector (+0.2%) softens losses at the index level. Semiconductor stocks are rebounding from a lower finish yesterday, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 1.6%

The utilities sector (+0.2%) is the only other S&P 500 sector that moves higher, supported by steady Treasury yields amid a modest pullback in oil prices today.

Meanwhile, other defensive pockets of the market, including the health care (-1.2%) and consumer staples (-1.1%) sectors are among today's worst performers after outperforming yesterday, with Walmart (WMT 105.92, -2.81, -2.58%) a significant drag on the DJIA.

..NYSE Adv/Dec 814/1774. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1601/2365.
10:55 ET Dow -174.74 at 51306.68, Nasdaq +61.53 at 26902.95, S&P -0.22 at 7683.57

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain little changed from previous levels. 

CarMax (KMX 60.77, +4.22, +7.46%) is surging after its Q2 report featured better-than-expected earnings and revenue alongside signs of progress under its "Shift into GEAR" strategy. Comparable retail used unit sales jumped 13.0%, a sharp acceleration from last quarter's 0.8% decline, as improved price competitiveness and customer conversion helped drive stronger volumes. Total gross profit increased 11.4% despite some pressure on gross margin and per-unit profitability, while CarMax Auto Finance income rose 32.1%.

Although CarMax is not an S&P 500 component, its results are providing a boost to peer Carvana (CVNA 64.26, +3.78, +6.26%), which is also moving sharply higher today. The group is getting some additional support from relatively steady Treasury yields following yesterday's sharp rate-driven market retreat.

..NYSE Adv/Dec 1066/1491. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1719/2150.
10:30 ET Dow -144.52 at 51336.9, Nasdaq +55.90 at 26897.32, S&P +1.78 at 7685.57

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (flat), Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%), and DJIA (-0.2%) continue to drift in a tight range near their unchanged levels.

Semiconductor stocks, however, continue to move higher amid a busy morning of AI-related news items. Axios reports that OpenAI's annual recurring revenue is getting close to $70 billion. The PHLX Semiconductor Index is up 2.4%.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 81.9 in September (Briefing.com consensus 90.0) from a downwardly revised 88.6 (from 89.4) in August. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 95.6.

The key takeaway from the report is that consumer confidence weakened for both present conditions and the six-month outlook, with elevated prices for goods and services factoring into that assessment.

..NYSE Adv/Dec 1130/1420. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1830/1938.
10:05 ET Dow -123.59 at 51357.83, Nasdaq -3.15 at 26838.27, S&P -4.83 at 7678.96

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (flat), and DJIA (-0.2%), are little changed shortly after the open, reflecting some back-and-forth across equities in response to yesterday's retreat.

Breadth figures are nearly even on the NYSE and the Nasdaq, with four S&P 500 sectors trading higher. The information technology sector (+0.2%) is among the leaders, supported by a 2.1% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index following a tough session for the group yesterday.

Semiconductor-linked plays such as Bloom Energy (BE 290.33, +27.46, +10.45%) and Vertiv (VRT 251.63, +7.59, +3.11%) are among some of the early standouts, helping the industrials sector (+0.5%) rise to the widest gain so far.

Elsewhere, stability across Treasury yields supports gains in the utilities (+0.4%) and real estate (+0.2%) sectors after higher yields weighed on both groups yesterday. The 10-year note yield is down one basis point to 5.25%.

Lower oil prices are also a driving factor of this morning's action. Crude oil is currently down $1.64 (-1.8%) to $90.96 per barrel. Cruise lines such as Carnival (CCL 24.70, +2.56, +11.54%) and Royal Caribbean (RCL 257.94, +15.35, +6.33%) are soaring higher, while the energy sector (-0.7%) is among today's laggards.

The defensive health care (-0.5%) and consumer staples (-0.8%) sectors also move firmly lower after outperforming yesterday.

Just released, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 81.9 in September (Briefing.com consensus 90.0) from the downwardly revised level of 88.6 (from 89.4) in August.

The job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) saw 7.079 million job openings in August (Briefing.com consensus 7.150 million), down from the upwardly revised prior level of 7.335 million (from 7.271 million).

..NYSE Adv/Dec 1223/1303. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1747/1792.
09:03 ET Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +82.00.

The stock market remains on track for a modestly higher opening, with easing oil prices and Treasury yields providing some relief after exerting pressure on the market yesterday. 

Just released, the FHFA Housing Price Index increased 0.3% month-over-month in July, from a previous flat reading in June.

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index increased 2.5% in August, from an upwardly revised previous increase of 2.2% (from 2.1%).

08:55 ET Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +10.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +71.00.

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 10 points above fair value. 

Asian markets finished mixed on Tuesday, with elevated oil prices and global bond yields weighing on Japan and Hong Kong while expectations for additional policy support lifted mainland Chinese equities. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, while the broader Topix dropped 1.7% amid renewed inflation and tightening concerns, with SoftBank Group (-3.4%), Mitsubishi UFJ (-3.5%), Sumitomo Mitsui (-4.0%), and Toyota (-3.5%) among the notable decliners. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.2%, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.3% on expectations that Beijing could accelerate government bond issuance and increase fiscal support. Cambricon Technologies (+2.6%), Suzhou Dongshan Precision (+1.7%), and Agricultural Bank of China (+1.2%) advanced ahead of Wednesday's manufacturing PMI reports. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index declined 0.5%, pressured by higher oil prices, elevated Treasury yields, and continued weakness in Chinese technology shares, with Geely (-7.4%), Xiaomi (-2.6%), Meituan (-2.0%), and Tencent (-1.8%) retreating. Investors also remain cautious ahead of China's National Day holiday, while Brent crude around $106 continues to reinforce inflation and interest-rate concerns across the region. Relatedly, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, as expected.

  • In economic data:
    • The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, as expected.
    • Japan's July Leading Index increased 1.5% m/m (expected 1.7%; prior 0.0%).

European markets trade higher, with technology, healthcare, and mining shares providing support despite elevated oil prices and bond yields. Germany's DAX 40 gains 0.7%, led by Infineon Technologies (+2.2%) and Siemens Energy (+1.7%) amid renewed AI enthusiasm, while Fresenius Medical Care (-2.0%) falls after Berenberg cut its price target and withdraws its buy recommendation. France's CAC 40 rises 0.1%, with Legrand surging 6.1% after raising its 2030 targets on stronger data-center and energy-transition demand, while STMicroelectronics (+2.6%), Schneider Electric (+2.3%), and Stellantis (+1.2%) also advance. London's FTSE 100 gains 0.2%, supported by AstraZeneca and GSK (+2.0%) and strength in miners including Antofagasta, Anglo American, Glencore, Fresnillo, and Rio Tinto, which rise between 1.4% and 2.0%. UK shop-price inflation eases to 1.4% year-over-year in September from 1.5% in August, while National Grid (-1.4%) and energy shares lag. US-Iran negotiations remain a key macro focus, with the lack of diplomatic progress keeping crude prices elevated while global bond yields remain near multi-year highs.

  • In economic data:
    • Eurozone's September Consumer Confidence was -16.5 (expected -16.5; prior -16.5).
    • Eurozone's September Industrial Sentiment was -3.8 (expected -4.8; prior -5.0).
    • Eurozone's September Business and Consumer Survey was 97.9 (expected 99.0; prior 98.4).
    • Spain's September CPI increased 0.3% m/m (prior 0.7%) and 4.9% yr/yr (expected 4.6%; prior 4.3%).
    • Italy's August PPI increased 2.4% m/m (prior 2.3%) and 10.9% yr/yr (prior 7.7%).
    • Italy's July Industrial Sales increased 1.7% m/m (prior -0.9%) and 4.8% yr/yr (prior 3.2%).
    • U.K.'s August Mortgage Approvals totaled 54.92K (expected 56.00K; prior 55.93K).
    • U.K.'s August BoE Consumer Credit totaled GBP2.464B (expected GBP1.900B; prior GBP2.097B).
    • U.K.'s September Shop Price Index increased 1.4% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; prior 1.5%).
08:36 ET Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +14.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +104.00.

Equity futures continue to point to a higher open, with the S&P 500 futures currently trading 14 points above fair value.

Reuters reports that Anthropic will warn in its IPO filing that AI poses "existential risks to humanity. The company's IPO filing also reveals that the company is targeting a $2 trillion valuation.

08:00 ET Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +19.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +120.00.

Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening this morning as some of Monday's pressure from crude oil and Treasury yields eases. The positive bias comes after the major averages started the week with sizable losses amid volatility in both markets, with Treasury yields remaining particularly elevated even after crude oil reversed most of an early surge.

Oil prices are pulling back this morning alongside signs that Middle Eastern crude flows are recovering despite the ongoing conflict. Middle Eastern crude exports have risen to around their highest level since the Iran war began, as the U.S. Navy and Gulf producers have become more effective at keeping shipments moving through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes, weakening Iran's leverage over the waterway, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Treasury yields are also easing from Monday's elevated levels, providing some relief for equities. Technology and semiconductor stocks, which were notable sources of weakness in yesterday's session, are poised for a rebound at the open as the broader market attempts to recover from Monday's decline.

Today's remaining economic calendar:

  • 9:00 AM ET: July FHFA Housing Price Index; prior 0.0%
  • 9:00 AM ET: July S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index; prior 2.1%
  • 10:00 AM ET: September Consumer Confidence; Briefing.com consensus 90.0; prior 89.4
  • 10:00 AM ET: August JOLTs - Job Openings; Briefing.com consensus 7.150M; prior 7.271M

In corporate news:

  • OpenAI decided against releasing latest artificial intelligence model due to safety concerns, according to The Wall Street Journal.
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 616.51, +8.64, +1.4%) entered a definitive agreement to acquire private AI model and research lab World Labs in an all-stock transaction valued at about $8.2 bilion.
  • CarMax (KMX 60.15, +3.60, +6.37%) beat fiscal second-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, with combined retail and wholesale used-vehicle unit sales increasing 14.7% from a year ago. The company plans to resume share repurchases in the third quarter.
  • Summit Therapeutics (SMMT 18.25, +2.77, +17.89%) secured a $2 billion strategic investment and expanded its ivonescimab oncology collaboration.

Reviewing overnight developments:

According to Nikkei, elevated oil prices and global bond yields remained in focus across Asia, alongside expectations for additional policy support in China.

In news:

  • Nikkei reported that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, as expected.
  • Nikkei reported that investors remained cautious ahead of China's National Day holiday, while expectations grew that Beijing could accelerate government bond issuance and increase fiscal support.

In economic data:

  • Japan's July Leading Index 1.5% m/m (expected 1.7%; prior 0.0%)

Equity Markets:

  • Japan's Nikkei: -0.5%
  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.5%
  • China's Shanghai Composite: +0.2%
  • India's Sensex: -0.4%
  • South Korea's Kospi: -0.3%
  • Australia's All Ordinaries: +0.4%

Technology, healthcare, and mining shares provided support in Europe, while energy shares lagged as oil prices and bond yields remained elevated.

In news:

  • U.S.-Iran negotiations remained a key macro focus amid a lack of diplomatic progress.
  • UK shop-price inflation eased to 1.4% year over year in September from 1.5% in August.

In economic data:

  • Eurozone's September Consumer Confidence -16.5 (expected -16.5; prior -16.5); September Industrial Sentiment -3.8 (expected -4.8; prior -5.0); September Business and Consumer Survey 97.9 (expected 99.0; prior 98.4)
  • Spain's September CPI 0.3% m/m (prior 0.7%) and 4.9% yr/yr (expected 4.6%; prior 4.3%)
  • Italy's August PPI 2.4%v m/m (prior 2.3%) and 10.9% yr/yr (prior 7.7%); July Industrial Sales 1.7% m/m (prior -0.9%) and 4.8% yr/yr (prior 3.2%)
  • U.K.'s August Mortgage Approvals 54.92K (expected 56.00K; prior 55.93K); BoE Consumer Credit GBP2.464B (expected GBP1.900B; prior GBP2.097B); September Shop Price Index 1.4% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; prior 1.5%)

Equity Markets:

  • STOXX Europe 600 : +0.1%
  • Germany's DAX : +0.5%
  • U.K.'s FTSE 100 : +0.4%
  • France's CAC 40 : +0.3%
  • Italy's FTSE MIB : +0.9%
  • Spain's IBEX 35 : +0.7%
06:16 ET Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +35.00.
06:16 ET Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...65481.27...-396.40...-0.60%.  Hang Seng...24523.57...-119.00...-0.50%.
06:16 ET Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...10704.28...+19.40...+0.20%.  DAX...25524...+21.00...+0.10%.
16:20 ET Dow -347.11 at 51481.42, Nasdaq -248.34 at 26841.42, S&P -59.72 at 7683.79

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages finished Monday broadly lower after a volatile session shaped by sharp swings in crude oil, elevated Treasury yields, and shifting headlines surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations. The S&P 500 (-0.8%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%), and DJIA (-0.7%) ended near their late-session lows, though still above the worst levels reached during the morning.

Oil and interest rates provided the primary macro headwinds. WTI crude surged more than 3.0% to above $95 per barrel during the morning after President Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal, while the 10-year note yield climbed as high as 5.26%. Those moves fueled broad selling that briefly pushed losses in the major averages toward or beyond 1.0%.

The tone improved considerably around midday as a series of headlines suggested that diplomatic channels remain open despite substantial differences between the U.S. and Iran. President Trump was reported by CNN to be open to sanctions relief in exchange for progress toward a nuclear deal, while Alhadath reported that Iran had agreed to halt uranium enrichment in exchange for easing U.S. sanctions. Other reports indicated that talks between the two sides are expected to continue this week. Those developments prompted a sharp reversal in crude oil, although uncertainty surrounding negotiations remained elevated.

A later Bloomberg report indicated that Iranian officials are pessimistic about reaching an agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the midterms. WTI ultimately settled just $0.27 higher (+0.3%) at $92.44 per barrel, far below its morning high.

Despite the intraday recovery, selling remained relatively broad into the close, with cyclical and growth-oriented areas accounting for much of the weakness. The communication services (-1.7%), consumer discretionary (-1.6%), financials (-1.1%), and industrials (-1.0%) sectors were among the largest laggards. Mega-cap stocks also remained under pressure, leaving the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF down 0.9%, with Meta Platforms (META 715.62, -36.04, -4.79%) a particular laggard back after last week's double-digit advance.

Semiconductor stocks were another source of weakness, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index falling 1.6%. NVIDIA (NVDA 228.86, +3.79, +1.68%) remained a notable exception after increasing its share repurchase authorization by $150 billion to $235 billion and launching its Open Agent Safety Platform, helping the information technology sector (-0.7%) hold up better than several other growth-oriented areas.

Defensive-oriented stocks provided relative support. The consumer staples (+0.4%) and health care (+0.3%) sectors finished higher, while the energy sector (+0.2%) eked out a gain after surrendering much of its earlier advance as crude oil retreated.

Weakness also extended beyond the largest companies, with the Russell 2000 and S&P Mid Cap 400 both falling 0.7%.

There were several notable stock-specific moves outside the broader market narrative. MongoDB (MDB 334.68, -75.76, -18.46%) plunged after President and CEO Chirantan "CJ" Desai stepped down effective immediately to take a senior role at Meta Platforms, marking the company's second CEO transition in less than a year just ahead of its September 29 Investor Day. Former CEO Dev Ittycheria was named interim president and CEO as the company begins an external search, while MDB reaffirmed its Q3 and FY27 guidance.

NIKE (NKE 36.37, +0.62, +1.73%), meanwhile, displayed notable relative strength ahead of its fiscal Q1 report Thursday afternoon. The gain provided a reprieve from a difficult year for the stock, which remains down roughly 43% year-to-date amid an uneven turnaround marked by weakness in Greater China, discounting, competitive pressures, and questions surrounding the company's product pipeline and direct-to-consumer strategy.

Ultimately, the market was unable to sustain its midday recovery as elevated Treasury yields and lingering uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict kept pressure on equities. The sharp reversal in crude oil removed one of the morning's biggest headwinds, but weakness across cyclical stocks, mega-cap names, and semiconductors left the major averages with sizable losses at the close.

U.S. Treasuries had a rough start to the week, pinched at first by rising oil prices and then languishing on the back of ongoing secular issues that include stubbornly high inflation and increased debt issuance to cover a large budget deficit. Notably, Treasuries didn't recover much ground after oil prices scaled lower amid reports that the U.S. and Iran might be making progress toward a deal. The 2-year note yield settled up eight basis points to 4.93%, and the 10-year note yield settled up nine basis points to 4.25%. 

There was no economic data of note today.

  • Nasdaq Composite: +15.4% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +13.5% YTD
  • S&P 500: +12.2% YTD
  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +9.6% YTD
  • DJIA: +7.1% YTD
..NYSE Adv/Dec 662/2085. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1389/3537.

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