[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market saw an extension of yesterday's losses, though some late-session geopolitical developments helped the major averages finish well off their session lows. The S&P 500 (-0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%), and DJIA (-0.4%) finished just modestly lower, though the S&P 500 failed to close above its 200-day moving average (6,619). 

The S&P 500 moved above the key technical level during the brief stint that the major averages spent in positive territory late in the session. The move was prompted by commentary from Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who stated at a press conference that Iran "can no longer enrich uranium" or "manufacture ballistic missiles," according to The Times of Israel. Mr. Netanyahu also noted that Israel is helping U.S. efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the war will be over sooner than people think.

Crude oil, which settled today's session $0.29 higher (+0.3%) at $95.71 per barrel, moved lower in response, currently trading $1.32 (-1.4%) lower at $94.14 per barrel. Oil traded higher early in the session following a Wall Street Journal report that Iranian missiles caused extensive damage to a liquefied natural gas hub in Qatar. 

While stocks finished off their session lows, the energy sector (+1.5%) was the only S&P 500 sector to secure a gain today. 

The top-weighted information technology sector was able to finish flat after trading with a modest loss for most of the session. The sector was supported by another strong performance from Ciena (CIEN 412.66, +27.40, +7.11%), which extended its week-to-date gain to 22.3%.

Semiconductor stocks also performed relatively well, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index finishing 0.8% higher. Micron (MU 444.27, -17.46, -3.78%) was a laggard after its earnings report despite blowing away analyst expectations but succumbed to profit-taking after a strong rally this year and skepticism around massive capital expenditure plans. 

The financials sector also managed to finish on its flat line, with relative strength across major banking names. 

Meanwhile, the materials sector (-1.6%) faced the widest retreat. Newmont Corporation (NEM 99.13, -7.41, -6.96%) was among the worst-performing S&P 500 names today as gold futures settled $290.50 lower (-5.9%) at $4,605.70 per ounce. 

Continued geopolitical volatility around shipping in the Middle East also weighed on fertilizer names such as Mosaic (MOS 26.20, -1.58, -5.69%). 

The consumer discretionary sector (-0.9%) also saw an extension of yesterday's weakness, with Tesla's (TSLA 380.30, -12.48, -3.18%) weakness overshadowing mixed strength across the sector's other components. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.7%) and DJIA (+0.3%) outperformed the major averages, ending the day in positive territory following late-session commentary from Prime Minister Netanyahu. 

The late-session bounce highlights the market's sensitivity to geopolitical headlines, but the S&P 500's failure to close back above its 200-day moving average suggests conviction remains limited as the market adjusts to the new rate cut outlook, which was significantly pushed back after yesterday's FOMC meeting. Ongoing volatility in energy prices is likely to keep investors on edge in the near term. 

U.S. Treasuries had a rough overnight session, reacting negatively to rising oil prices and the stark realization that rate cuts from the Fed (and other central banks) are going to be pushed out due to the uncertainty surrounding the war with Iran (the BOJ, BOE, Swiss National Bank, and ECB followed the Fed in voting to keep their policy rates unchanged). There was a nice reversal from early highs, however, driven by technical buying support and short-covering activity. The 2-year note yield settled up eight basis points to 3.83%, and the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points to 4.28%. 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +2.0% YTD
• Russell 2000: +0.5% YTD
• S&P 500: -3.5% YTD
• DJIA: -4.3% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -5.0% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly Initial Claims 205K (Briefing.com consensus 215K); Prior 213K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.857 mln; Prior was revised to 1.847 mln from 1.850 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the low level of initial jobless claims will keep the Fed preoccupied for now with the inflation side of its mandate, which is to say it won't be inclined to cut rates.
• March Philadelphia Fed Index 18.1 (Briefing.com consensus 4.7); Prior 16.3
• January New Home Sales 587K (Briefing.com consensus 719K); Prior was revised to 712K from 745K
  • The key takeaway from the report is that sharp declines were registered in all regions, despite declines in both median and average selling prices, which suggests some demand attrition in the face of elevated mortgage rates and perhaps burgeoning concerns about job security.
• January Wholesale Inventories -0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to -0.1% from 0.2%
• January Leading Economic Index -0.1%; Prior -0.2%

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%), and DJIA (-0.3%) made a sharp turn higher in reaction to commentary from Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In a press conference, the prime minister stated that Iran "can no longer enrich uranium" or "manufacture ballistic missiles," according to The Times of Israel. 

Mr. Netanyahu also noted that Israel is helping U.S. efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the war will be over sooner than people think. 

The move briefly shot the major averages into positive territory, and the S&P 500 above its 50-day moving average of 6,619, though the indices have since pulled back modestly. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.8%), and DJIA (-0.9%) remain firmly lower as the market enters the final hour of the session. 

The IEA confirmed that member nations have begun contributing to a coordinated release of oil reserves in response to disruptions in the Middle East. 

Crude oil settled today's session $0.29 higher (+0.3%) at $95.71 per barrel. The energy sector (+1.6%) remains the only S&P 500 sector that trades higher today. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.58%) is in "first" place, albeit down 38 points, as the major averages hunker down for what could be the fourth consecutive down week in a row.

Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Fair Isaac (FICO 1,113.02, -90.68, -7.53%), Int'l Paper (IP 33.88, -2.02, -5.63%), and Mosaic (MOS 26.31, -1.47, -5.29%) pepper the bottom of the average despite a dearth of corporate news.

Meanwhile, Seagate Tech (STX 429.38, +22.61, +5.56%) holds firm atop the standings as select technology stocks hold up fairly well amid broader market weakness.

[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.78%) is in second place on Thursday afternoon, down 173 points.

Gold futures settled $290.50 lower (-5.9%) at $4,605.70/oz, as a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook pushed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. The selloff was amplified by macro repositioning and a flight to liquidity, with investors rotating into yield-bearing assets despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down now about -0.9% to $99.38.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.78%) is in second place on Thursday afternoon, down about 361 points.

A look inside the DJIA shows that Boeing (BA 200.00, -5.99, -2.91%), Sherwin-Williams (SHW 305.75, -6.37, -2.04%), and Caterpillar (CAT 681.86, -11.76, -1.70%) are underperforming.

Meanwhile, Chevron (CVX 201.38, +2.77, +1.39%) stands atop the average.

The DJIA is now -3.30% lower off Tuesday's highs.

[BRIEFING.COM] Equities are under continued pressure following yesterday's sell-off, with all three major averages now slipping below their 50-day moving averages. The S&P 500 (-0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%), and DJIA (-0.9%) are trading in a relatively tight range, while the Russell 2000 (-0.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.4%) hold more modest losses. 

The weakness is broad as investors reassess the outlook for monetary policy in the wake of yesterday's FOMC meeting, which significantly pushed back the market's expectations for its next rate cut. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that a 25-basis-point rate cut to 3.25-3.50% is not priced in with greater than 50% probability until the September 2027 meeting.

The shift in the macro outlook has been exacerbated by rising oil prices, which are on the move again today after oil closed modestly lower yesterday. Crude oil is currently up $1.74 (+1.8%) to $97.20 per barrel. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iranian missiles caused extensive damage at a key hub for liquefied natural gas in Qatar.

Similar to recent sessions, the energy sector (+1.5%) is a standout, though the rise in oil prices and downbeat macro outlook are keeping the other ten S&P 500 sectors below their baselines. 

The materials sector (-2.2%) faces the widest loss, with Newmont Corporation (NEM 97.26, -9.28, -8.72%) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX 52.69, -2.76, -4.98%) among the worst-performing S&P 500 names today as precious metal prices retreat sharply. Gold is down about 6.5% while silver is down roughly 10%. 

Micron (MU 444.80, -16.93, -3.67%) is another underperformer today, seeing choppy price action following its earnings report. The company delivered a stellar beat-and-raise report, though it was priced for perfection after a massive rally to start the year. The information technology sector (-0.5%) is actually one of the better-performing sectors today, with mixed strength across its components. 

The same cannot be said for the consumer discretionary sector (-1.3%), which faces more broad pressure and weak leadership from Tesla (TSLA 381.97, -10.81, -2.75%). 

Elsewhere, the industrials sector (-1.4%) also lags as aerospace and defense names continue to face some "sell-the-news" pressure after the war in Iran initially sent the group higher. The iShares DJ Aerospace ETF is down 2.1%. 

So far, stocks have seen a continuation in recent pressures tied to developments on the macro and energy fronts. While the major averages have traded within a relatively tight range, the lack of meaningful buying interest suggests investors remain cautious as expectations shift away from rate cuts this year after entering 2026 anticipating multiple.

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly Initial Claims 205K (Briefing.com consensus 215K); Prior 213K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.857 mln; Prior was revised to 1.847 mln from 1.850 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the low level of initial jobless claims will keep the Fed preoccupied for now with the inflation side of its mandate, which is to say it won't be inclined to cut rates.
• March Philadelphia Fed Index 18.1 (Briefing.com consensus 4.7); Prior 16.3
• January New Home Sales 587K (Briefing.com consensus 719K); Prior was revised to 712K from 745K
  • The key takeaway from the report is that sharp declines were registered in all regions, despite declines in both median and average selling prices, which suggests some demand attrition in the face of elevated mortgage rates and perhaps burgeoning concerns about job security.
• January Wholesale Inventories -0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to -0.1% from 0.2%
• January Leading Economic Index -0.1%; Prior -0.2%

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.7%), and DJIA (-0.7%) remain in a rangebound trade amid weak participation in the broader market. 

A Politico reporter wrote on X "The White House will not implement a crude export ban, and told oil executives as much at this morning's meeting with API, per an admin official who participated in the meeting."

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to trade in a relatively tight range below their baselines at midday. 

Though not a component of the S&P 500, Alibaba (BABA 124.86, -9.56, -7.12%) is trading sharply lower following its Q3 report as the company missed expectations on both revenue and EPS, with profitability coming under heavy pressure from stepped-up e-commerce promotions and infrastructure spending tied to AI and cloud. Non-GAAP EPS plunged by about 67% year-over-year, underscoring how BABA's renewed push to defend share in a brutally competitive domestic e-commerce market and to build out AI and cloud capacity is weighing on near-term margins even as select growth engines, particularly Cloud Intelligence, show strong momentum.

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market is seeing a continuation of yesterday's weakness, which has forced the S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.7%), and DJIA (-0.8%) below their respective 50-day moving averages.

Weakness remains broad as the market adjusts to its already depleted rate cut expectations further dimming after yesterday's FOMC meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut to 3.25-3.50% doesn't exceed 50% until the September 2027 FOMC meeting.

Ten S&P 500 sectors trade lower, with the materials sector (-2.2%) facing the widest loss amid a significant pullback in precious metals today, as gold is currently down over 5.5% while silver has given up over 9%. 

The industrials sector (-1.3%) also lags as aerospace and defense names face a continuation of yesterday's losses, with the iShares DJ Aerospace ETF down 2.6%. The weakness in defense names does not imply the market expects an imminent end to the war in Iran; rather, it is now viewing the conflict as a "sell the news" event. 

Oil is up $0.42 (+0.4%) to $95.88, off its earlier highs that followed reports that Iranian missiles caused extensive damage at a key hub for liquefied natural gas in Qatar. The energy sector (+1.5%) is the only S&P 500 sector that holds a gain, though the rise in oil prices continues to be a headwind for the broader market. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-0.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.6%) hold losses that are comparable to those of the major averages. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain little changed from previous levels. 

Micron (MU 455.32, -6.42, -1.39%) is trading lower following its Q2 report, despite delivering a blowout beat-and-raise quarter, as investors appear to be taking profits and reacting cautiously to the company's aggressive capital spending plans. The company posted record revenue, margins, and EPS, with results and forward guidance far exceeding expectations, underscoring the powerful tailwinds from AI-driven memory demand. However, MU's announcement of a significant step-up in CapEx-particularly into FY27-has raised concerns about potential oversupply risk and capital intensity at the cycle's peak.

While the stock remains firmly lower for the day, it is worth noting that it has improved considerably from earlier session lows, which saw it trade more than 7.0% lower. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%), and DJIA (-0.9%) continue to trade lower an hour into today's session. 

The consumer discretionary sector (-1.5%) now sits near the bottom of the leaderboard. Tesla (TSLA 380.80, -11.98, -3.05%) is a "magnificent seven" laggard amid a tough day for mega-cap stocks, while DoorDash (DASH 158.45, -6.54, -3.96%) and Carvana (CVNA 276.92, -14.24, -4.89%) trade even lower. 

New home sales declined 17.6% month-over-month in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 719,000), significantly undershooting expectations. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 11.3%.

The key takeaway from the report is that sharp declines were registered in all regions, despite declines in both median and average selling prices, which suggests some demand attrition in the face of elevated mortgage rates and perhaps burgeoning concerns about job security.

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks opened to broad pressure again this morning, with the S&P 500 (-0.5%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%), and DJIA (-0.5%) all trading below their respective 50-day moving averages. 

Oil is up $0.69 (+0.7%) to $96.15 per barrel, helping the energy sector (+0.4%) extend this week's gains to 1.7%. Reports of Iran striking energy infrastructure targets in the Persian Gulf region has sent oil higher this morning and further stoked concerns that the conflict will last an extended period of time. 

Elsewhere, the health care sector (+0.2%) sees some modest bargain hunting after weakness in previous sessions. 

Meanwhile, rising energy costs and a severely diminished rate cut forecast have the broader market trending lower. While losses are widespread, they are relatively modest, though there are a few notable underperformers in the mix. 

The materials sector (-2.3%) holds the widest loss amid a considerable pullback in precious metals prices, with gold down 5.4% and silver down 10%.

The industrial sector (-1.3%) also moves firmly lower, with particular weakness across aerospace and defense names sending the iShares DJ Aerospace ETF 2.8% lower. 

Just released, new home sales declined 17.6% month-over-month in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000 units (Briefing.com consensus: 719,000) versus 745,000 units in December.

Wholesale inventories decreased 0.5% in January (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), from a downwardly revised prior decrease of 0.1% (from 0.2%). 

The stock market is on track for another lower opening this morning as the market wrestles with rising oil prices and severely depleted odds of any easing from the Fed this year. 

Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 14 decreased by 8,000 to 205,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 215,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 7 increased by 10,000 to 1.857 million.

The key takeaway from the report is that the low level of initial jobless claims will keep the Fed preoccupied for now with the inflation side of its mandate, which is to say it won't be inclined to cut rates.

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 47 points below fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region slumped badly Thursday amid the fallout from post-FOMC selling in the U.S., rising energy prices, and the initial sell-the-news response to Micron's (MU) blowout earnings report. Ongoing concerns about the Iran war lasting longer than feared and doing more economic damage than feared through the channel of high energy prices weighed on investor sentiment. The Bank of Japan left its key policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected, with the uncertainty about the Middle East unrest contributing to the decision. It was an 8-1 vote. The lone dissenter (Takata) wanted a 25-basis-point hike.

• In economic data
  • Japan's January Core Machinery Orders -5.5% m/m (expected -9.6%; prior 19.1%) and 13.7% yr/yr (expected 10.5%; prior 16.8%); January Industrial Production 4.3% m/m (expected 2.2%; prior 0.6%) and Capacity Utilization 2.9% (prior 0.5%)
  • Australia's February Employment Change 48.9K (expected 20.8K; prior 26.1K); February Unemployment Rate 4.3% (expected 4.1%; prior 4.1%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -3.4%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.0%
• China's Shanghai Composite: -1.4%
• India's Sensex: -3.3%
• South Korea's Kospi: -2.7%
• Australia's All Ordinaries: -1.8%

Major European indices are under selling pressure, clipped by the spike in energy prices that was precipitated by Iran's retaliation on Qatar's LNG facilities at Ras Laffan. Brent crude futures topped $118.00/bbl but are now at $114.34/bbl, up 6.5%. Concerns about a pickup in inflation and a slowdown in growth have cut risk appetite. At the moment, sovereign bond markets appear more concerned with the prospect of higher inflation and an extended delay for additional rate cuts. That concern is reflected in higher yields across European bond markets. The Swiss National Bank kept its key policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, as expected. Sweden's Riksbank said its repo rate is not likely to change for some time. The Bank of England and the ECB will be out with rate decisions later this morning. Both are expected to leave their key policy rates unchanged.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's Q4 Labor Cost Index 3.3% yr/yr (prior 3.4%)
  • U.K.'s February Claimant Count Change 24.7K (expected 25.8K; prior 4.7K); January Avg. Earnings Index plus Bonus 3.9% (expected 3.9%; prior 4.2%); January Unemployment Rate 5.2% (expected 5.3%; prior 5.2%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -2.5%
• Germany's DAX: -3.0%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: -2.8%
• France's CAC 40: -2.2%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: -2.5%
• Spain's IBEX 35: -2.5%

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 37 points below fair value. 

Just released, initial jobless claims for the week ending March 14 decreased by 8,000 to 205,000 (Briefing.com consensus 215,000).

Continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 7 increased by 10,000 to 1.857 million, from a downwardly revised prior level of 1.846 million (from 1.850 million). 

The Philadelphia Fed Index expanded to 18.1 in March (Briefing.com consensus 4.7), from a prior reading of 16.3.

Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after stocks finished lower yesterday, with the Nasdaq Composite and DJIA closing below their 200-day moving averages, while the S&P 500 finished just modestly above its own. 

Stocks faced a combination of pressures yesterday, but the bulk of the losses were felt in the afternoon in response to the March FOMC meeting. The committee voted 11-1 to keep the fed funds target range unchanged, but the summary of economic projections (SEP) showed a bump in the median estimate for change in real GDP to 2.4% from 2.3% and PCE inflation to 2.7% from 2.4%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted in his press conference that officials are still looking for goods inflation to come down as tariffs work their way through the system and that the higher inflation expectations are not solely due to rising oil prices.

Developments on the energy front are back in focus this morning after Iran followed through on its promise to strike energy targets across the region in retaliation for an Israeli strike on an Iranian gas field. Qatari officials said Iranian missiles caused extensive damage at a key hub for liquefied natural gas, according to The Wall Street Journal. Additionally, Reuters reports that the Trump administration is sending thousands of troops to the Middle East, which could weigh on the market's expectations for a timely end to the war with Iran. 

Crude oil is currently up $1.88 (+2.0%) to $97.34 per barrel. 

On the earnings front, Micron (MU 430.19, -31.54, -6.8%) is the latest major tech company to move sharply lower despite a blowout beat-and-raise earnings report. 

In corporate news: 

• EU natural gas prices surged more than 20%, according to The Wall Street Journal.
• Elliot Investment Management builds a stake in Align Technology (ALGN 185.00, +12.59, +7.3%), according to Bloomberg. 
• Alibaba (BABA 127.56, -6.87, -5.1%) missed EPS estimates by RMB 4.42 and missed revenue expectations. 
• Micron (MU 430.19, -31.54, -6.8%) beat EPS expectations by $3.01, beat revenue expectations, guided Q3 EPS and revenues above consensus, and increased its dividend. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region slumped badly Thursday amid the fallout from post-FOMC selling in the U.S., rising energy prices, and the initial sell-the-news response to Micron's (MU) blowout earnings report. Japan's Nikkei: -3.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.0%, China's Shanghai Composite: -1.4%, India's Sensex: -3.3%, South Korea's Kospi: -2.7%, Australia's All Ordinaries: -1.8%.

In news:

• Ongoing concerns about the Iran war lasting longer than feared and doing more economic damage than feared through the channel of high energy prices weighed on investor sentiment.
• The Bank of Japan left its key policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected, with the uncertainty about the Middle East unrest contributing to the decision.
• It was an 8-1 vote. The lone dissenter (Takata) wanted a 25-basis-point hike.

In economic data:

• Japan's January Core Machinery Orders -5.5% m/m (expected -9.6%; prior 19.1%) and 13.7% yr/yr (expected 10.5%; prior 16.8%); January Industrial Production 4.3% m/m (expected 2.2%; prior 0.6%) and Capacity Utilization 2.9% (prior 0.5%)
• Australia's February Employment Change 48.9K (expected 20.8K; prior 26.1K); February Unemployment Rate 4.3% (expected 4.1%; prior 4.1%)

Major European indices are under selling pressure, clipped by the spike in energy prices that was precipitated by Iran's retaliation on Qatar's LNG facilities at Ras Laffan. STOXX Europe 600: -2.1%, Germany's DAX: -2.4%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -2.1%, France's CAC 40: -2.0%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -2.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: -2.1%.

In news:

• Brent crude futures topped $118.00/bbl but are now at $114.34/bbl, up 6.5%.
• Concerns about a pickup in inflation and a slowdown in growth have cut risk appetite.
• At the moment, sovereign bond markets appear more concerned with the prospect of higher inflation and an extended delay for additional rate cuts. That concern is reflected in higher yields across European bond markets.
• The Swiss National Bank kept its key policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, as expected.
• Sweden's Riksbank said its repo rate is not likely to change for some time.
• The Bank of England and the ECB will be out with rate decisions later this morning. Both are expected to leave their key policy rates unchanged.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's Q4 Labor Cost Index 3.3% yr/yr (prior 3.4%)
• U.K.'s February Claimant Count Change 24.7K (expected 25.8K; prior 4.7K); January Avg. Earnings Index plus Bonus 3.9% (expected 3.9%; prior 4.2%); January Unemployment Rate 5.2% (expected 5.3%; prior 5.2%)

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market had an eventful session, with inflation readings, volatile oil prices, and developments from today's FOMC meeting putting broad pressure on the market. The S&P 500 (-1.4%) finished a touch above its 200-day moving average of 6,615, while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.5%) and DJIA (-1.6%) violated their respective 200-day moving averages. 

Stocks opened to more modest losses following the release of the February PPI (0.7%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%), which fueled inflation concerns, especially since the index does not yet reflect the recent surge in oil prices. Oil was also higher this morning amid reports that Iran threatened numerous Gulf energy sites following an Israeli strike on an Iranian gas field, though the action was choppy, and crude oil futures settled today's session $0.63 lower (-0.7%) at $95.42 per barrel. 

While there was some modest relief in oil prices, inflation concerns took center stage this afternoon with the March FOMC meeting. The FOMC voted 11-1 to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% (Fed Governor Miran preferred a 25 bps cut), which was widely expected. 

What the market was particularly attuned to was the updated summary of economic projections (SEP), which showed a bump in the median estimate for change in real GDP to 2.4% from 2.3% and PCE inflation to 2.7% from 2.4%. There was no change in the median estimate of one rate cut this year and one rate cut next year, although the longer-run estimate for the fed funds rate ticked up to 3.10% from 3.00%.

The market's initial reaction to these updates was fairly muted, though stocks moved lower in broad fashion during Fed Chair Powell's press conference. Mr. Powell noted that officials are still looking for goods inflation to come down as tariffs work their way through the system and that the higher inflation expectations are not solely due to rising oil prices. 

Mr. Powell also warned, "The possibility that our next move might be an increase did come up at the meeting, as it did the last meeting. The vast majority of participants don't see that as their base case."

Ultimately, today's meeting weighed on stocks, with all eleven S&P 500 sectors finishing at session lows in negative territory. Eight of those sectors finished with losses of 1.0% or wider. 

The consumer staples (-2.4%) and consumer discretionary (-2.3%) sectors finished at the bottom of today's leaderboard amid the focus on inflation, with nearly all of their components trading lower. lululemon athletica (LULU 165.39, +6.12, +3.84%) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM 184.04, +1.87, +1.03%) managed a higher finish after their earnings reports but were well off their session highs by the close. 

The top-weighted information technology sector (-1.2%) was a relative outperformer this morning, though it faced increasing pressure this afternoon. Software stocks were a point of weakness, with the iShares GS Software ETF finishing 1.4% lower, while NVIDIA (NVDA 180.40, -1.53, -0.84%) and other chipmakers ceded their early gains. Micron (MU 461.73, +0.04, +0.01%) traded flat ahead of its earnings after the close. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-1.7%) finished in line with the major averages, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.9%) closed with a more modest loss. 

Ultimately, the combination of sticky inflation and policy uncertainty leaves the market vulnerable, especially with key technical levels now in focus. Continued volatility in energy prices remains an added headwind for equities.

U.S. Treasuries had a tough day, and yields rose across the curve. The 2-year note yield settled up eight basis points to 3.75%, and the 10-year note yield settled up six basis points to 4.26%. 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +1.8% YTD
• Russell 2000: -0.1% YTD
• S&P 500: -3.2% YTD
• DJIA: -3.8% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -4.7% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -10.9%; Prior was revised to 3.2% from
• February PPI 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.5%, February Core PPI 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior 0.8%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the uptick in producer prices was seen in both goods (+1.1%) and services (+0.5%), and the added point is that this higher inflation occurred before the war with Iran and subsequent surge in energy prices, which will foment concerns about a worsening inflation situation.
• January Factory Orders 0.1%; Prior was revised to -0.4% from -0.7%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is the tepid level of business spending in January, evidenced by the 0.1% increase in new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.