The stock market is on track for a modestly lower opening as the market remains focused on developments in Iran and changes to the price of oil. 

Oil is extending its move lower, currently holding around $88 per barrel shortly before the stock market opens.

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 11 points below fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region bounced on Tuesday with South Korea's Kospi (+5.4%) reclaiming the bulk of its loss from Monday. China reported a smaller-than-expected trade surplus for February, though exports jumped 39.6% yr/yr. Exports to the U.S. were down almost 17% while exports to the EU and Southeast Asia grew 20%. Japan's final GDP report for Q4 beat expectations with help from strong business spending while South Korea's GDP contracted in Q4.

• In economic data:
  • China's February trade surplus $90.98 bln (expected surplus of $177.4 bln; last surplus of $114.1 bln). February Imports 13.8% yr/yr (expected 6.3%; last 5.7%) and Exports 39.6% yr/yr (expected 7.1%; last 6.6%)
  • Japan's Q4 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last -0.6%); 1.3% yr/yr (expected 0.2%; last -2.3%). Q4 GDP Price Index 3.4% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.4%). January Household Spending -2.5% m/m (expected 0.8%; last -2.2%); -1.0% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last -2.6%). February Machine Tool Orders 24.2% yr/yr (expected 25.3%; last 10.6%)
  • South Korea's Q1 GDP -0.2% qtr/qtr (expected -0.3%; last 1.3%); 1.6% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.8%)
  • Australia's Westpac Consumer Sentiment 1.2% m/m (last -2.6%) February NAB Business Confidence -1 (last 4) and February NAB Business Survey 7 (last 7). January Building Approvals -7.2% m/m, as expected (last -14.9%); -15.7% yr/yr (expected 8.1%; last 0.4%). January Private House Approvals 1.1% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +2.9%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.2%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +0.7%
• India's Sensex: +0.8%
• South Korea's Kospi: +5.4%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.1%

Major European indices trade in the green, recovering some of their recent losses with help from a pullback in the price of oil. G7 officials will hold another call today, looking to agree on a coordinated oil reserve release. British homebuilder Persimmon issued upbeat deliveries guidance for the year while Renault announced its updated margin targets. Volkswagen missed Q4 expectations and announced job cuts. European Central Bank policymaker Muller said that the likelihood of a rate hike has increased, but there is no need to rush to a decision.

• In economic data:
  • Germany's January trade surplus EUR21.2 bln (expected surplus of EUR15.4 bln; last surplus of EUR17.4 bln). January Imports -5.9% m/m (last 1.3%) and Exports -2.3% m/m (last 3.9%)
  • France's January trade deficit EUR1.8 bln (expected deficit of EUR5.2 bln; last deficit of EUR4.3 bln). January Current Account surplus EUR2.1 bln (last surplus of EUR100 mln)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +1.8%
• Germany's DAX: +2.2%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.5%
• France's CAC 40: +1.6%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +2.3%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +2.3%

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 22 points below fair value. 

Equity futures are moving lower this morning as oil creeps back above the $90 per barrel mark. Crude oil is currently down $4.48 (-4.7%) to $90.29 per barrel. 

Bloomberg reported that the largest refinery in the UAE has halted production after a drone strike in the area

Equity futures point to a modestly lower opening this morning following a choppy session for stocks that was driven by some major swings in the price of oil. The major averages opened to losses wider than 1.0% as oil surged past $100 per barrel, though stocks rallied late in the session as oil prices plunged after President Trump told CBS News that the war in Iran could be over soon. 

President Trump doubled down on his rhetoric in an address yesterday evening, telling reporters that U.S. military operations in Iran are well ahead of schedule and that the war is nearly complete. The president also threatened renewed action against Iran if it does anything to stop the flow of oil from the region. 

Currently, oil is down $5.02 (-5.3%) to $89.75 per barrel. 

On a related note, G7 energy ministers will discuss a potential global stockpile release this morning. 

Energy and geopolitical developments largely dominated headlines yesterday as swings in oil prices dictated price action. Corporate news flow is once again on the lighter side this morning, though there are still a few earnings reports in the mix. 

The market will receive just a few economic data releases today, including February Existing Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. ET (Briefing.com consensus 3.88 million). The February NFIB Small Business Optimism Index contracted to 98.8 (Briefing.com consensus 99.5) from a prior reading of 99.3. 

Key inflation readings lie ahead, with the market set to receive the February CPI readings (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) tomorrow, as well as the January PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) on Friday.

In corporate news:

• SpaceX is considering a Nasdaq listing, according to Reuters. 
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE 22.10, +0.29, +1.3%) beat EPS expectations by $0.06 and reported revenues in-line. The company guided Q2 EPS in-line with revenues above consensus and raised its FY26 EPS guidance while reaffirming FY26 revenue guidance.
• NVIDIA (NVDA 182.34, -0.31, -0.2%) is aiming to launch an open-source AI agent platform, according to Wired. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region bounced on Tuesday with South Korea's Kospi (+5.4%) reclaiming the bulk of its loss from Monday. Japan's Nikkei: +2.9%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.2%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.7%, India's Sensex: +0.8%. South Korea's Kospi: +5.4%. Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.1%.

In news:

• China reported a smaller-than-expected trade surplus for February, though exports jumped 39.6% yr/yr.
• Exports to the U.S. were down almost 17% while exports to the EU and Southeast Asia grew 20%.
• Japan's final GDP report for Q4 beat expectations with help from strong business spending while South Korea's GDP contracted in Q4.

In economic data:

• China's February trade surplus $90.98 bln (expected surplus of $177.4 bln; last surplus of $114.1 bln). February Imports 13.8% yr/yr (expected 6.3%; last 5.7%) and Exports 39.6% yr/yr (expected 7.1%; last 6.6%)
• Japan's Q4 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last -0.6%); 1.3% yr/yr (expected 0.2%; last -2.3%). Q4 GDP Price Index 3.4% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.4%). January Household Spending -2.5% m/m (expected 0.8%; last -2.2%); -1.0% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last -2.6%). February Machine Tool Orders 24.2% yr/yr (expected 25.3%; last 10.6%)
• South Korea's Q1 GDP -0.2% qtr/qtr (expected -0.3%; last 1.3%); 1.6% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.8%)
• Australia's Westpac Consumer Sentiment 1.2% m/m (last -2.6%) February NAB Business Confidence -1 (last 4) and February NAB Business Survey 7 (last 7). January Building Approvals -7.2% m/m, as expected (last -14.9%); -15.7% yr/yr (expected 8.1%; last 0.4%). January Private House Approvals 1.1% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%)

Major European indices trade in the green, recovering some of their recent losses with help from a pullback in the price of oil. STOXX Europe 600: +1.8%, Germany's DAX: +2.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.4%, France's CAC 40: +1.5%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +2.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: +2.3%.

In news:

• G7 officials will hold another call today, looking to agree on a coordinated oil reserve release.
• British homebuilder Persimmon issued upbeat deliveries guidance for the year while Renault announced its updated margin targets.
• Volkswagen missed Q4 expectations and announced job cuts.
• European Central Bank policymaker Muller said that the likelihood of a rate hike has increased, but there is no need to rush to a decision.

In economic data:

• Germany's January trade surplus EUR21.2 bln (expected surplus of EUR15.4 bln; last surplus of EUR17.4 bln). January Imports -5.9% m/m (last 1.3%) and Exports -2.3% m/m (last 3.9%)
• France's January trade deficit EUR1.8 bln (expected deficit of EUR5.2 bln; last deficit of EUR4.3 bln). January Current Account surplus EUR2.1 bln (last surplus of EUR100 mln)

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market had an eventful start to the week, with the S&P 500 (+0.8%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.4%), and DJIA (+0.5%) rebounding from sharp early losses as oil prices made a decisive move lower this afternoon amid geopolitical developments in Iran.

Oil surged past $100 per barrel this morning, testing the $120 mark and prompting the major averages to open with losses wider than 1%. The Nasdaq Composite briefly moved below its 200-day moving average (22,101.90).

Oil stabilized around the $100 mark following headlines that the G7 will meet again tomorrow to discuss a release of global oil stockpiles to combat the surge in prices. CNBC reported that the meeting will occur tomorrow morning, with talks among G7 nations currently "positive" around a release.

The major averages spent much of the session trading with more modest losses, though weakness remained relatively broad-based. 

Crude oil futures finished today's session $3.87 higher (+4.3%) at $94.73 a barrel, though another price swing remained in store. President Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that the war in Iran "could be over soon" as the U.S. is very far ahead of his initial 4-to-5-week estimated time frame. Additionally, President Trump noted that ships are moving through the Strait of Hormuz, though he is considering "taking it over."

Oil prices fell below their flatlines, sending stocks higher in broad fashion. As of just before 4:30 p.m. ET, crude oil is currently trading $5.56 (-6.1%) lower at $85.34 a barrel. 

Nine S&P 500 sectors would finish with gains, leaving just the energy (-0.4%) and financials (-0.5%) sectors in negative territory. 

While the energy sector moved lower amid the decrease in oil prices, the financials sector was a laggard throughout the session and finished well above its session lows. Insurance names such as Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG 217.78, -10.35, -4.54%) were among the worst performers, while major banking names put up mixed performances. 

Meanwhile, the top-weighted information technology sector (+1.8%) posted the widest gain. The sector held a modest gain for much of the session even while the broader market traded lower, supported by strength in its semiconductor components. NVIDIA (NVDA 182.65, +4.83, +2.72%) was a mega-cap standout, while memory storage names such as Sandisk (SNDK 588.73, +61.40, +11.64%) posted the widest gains, helping the PHLX Semiconductor Index finish 3.9% higher. 

Elsewhere, the communication services sector (+1.1%) also notched a solid gain as Alphabet (GOOG 306.01, +7.71, +2.58%) provided strong leadership. 

Live Nation (LYV 165.80, +9.67, +6.19%) topped the sector's leaderboard after the company reached a settlement with the Department of Justice in an antitrust case that will allow the company to keep Ticketmaster. 

The health care sector (+0.9%) rounds out the top three performing sectors, supported by broad strength in its components and a strong performance from Moderna (MRNA 55.74, +3.22, +6.13%). 

Though not components of the sector, Hims & Hers Health (HIMS 22.16, +6.42, +40.79%) traded sharply higher today after confirming a strategic pivot for its U.S. weight-loss business that entails bringing FDA-approved Wegovy and Ozempic (semaglutide) medications onto its telehealth platform and moving away from broadly marketed compounded GLP-1 products, a shift that resolves a legal dispute with Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO 39.78, +1.20, +3.11%) and expands patient access.

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 (+1.1%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.0%) notched solid gains of their own, surging higher as oil prices fell this afternoon. 

Altogether, the broader market made an impressive intraday move as oil prices stabilized and then moved lower this afternoon. While the geopolitical backdrop remains fluid, the market will look for further color from tomorrow's Group of Seven energy meeting, where officials are expected to discuss a potential coordinated release of global oil stockpiles. At the same time, developments surrounding the situation in Iran remain a key driver of price action. Ideally for equities, oil prices will continue to move lower in the near term before the recent spike begins to meaningfully weigh on corporate margins or feed through into broader inflation pressures.

There was no economic data of note today. 

U.S. Treasuries started the new week with a continuation of the recent volatility, but an intraday bounce saved the long bond from another lower finish while 5s and shorter tenors added to last week's losses. The 2-year note yield settled up three basis points to 3.59%, and the 10-year note yield finished unchanged at 4.14%. 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +4.2% YTD
• Russell 2000: +2.9% YTD
• DJIA: -0.7% YTD
• S&P 500: -0.7% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -2.4% YTD