[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks hit the ground running to start the week, with the S&P 500 (+1.0%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.2%), and DJIA (+0.8%) taking back a meaningful chunk of the previous week's losses. The Nasdaq Composite closed above its 200-day moving average (22,191.85), which it closed below last week. 

The market was supported by some relief in oil prices today after a surge past the $100 per barrel mark weighed heavily on stocks last week. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration plans to announce a multi-country coalition that will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, with the announcement to come as soon as this week. While oil price action was still relatively choppy today, optimism that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could meaningfully pick up in the near term helped crude oil futures settle today's session $5.26 lower (-5.4%) at $93.35 per barrel. 

Strength was broad throughout the session, with all eleven S&P 500 sectors finishing higher. 

The information technology sector (+1.4%) led the advance, supported by solid gains across semiconductor names. NVIDIA (NVDA 183.19, +2.94, +1.63%) garnered a fair share of attention today as the company's CEO, Jensen Huang, delivered his keynote address at NVIDIA's GTC conference. Notably, Mr. Huang said that last year he saw $500 billion of purchase orders for Blackwell and Rubin by 2026, and he now sees at least $1 trillion by 2027.

Memory storage names such as Sandisk (SNDK 703.63, +42.01, +6.35%) and Western Digital (WDC 286.21, +13.92, +5.11%) finished with even wider gains, with Micron (MU 441.80, +15.67, +3.68%) also trading higher before its earnings release tomorrow after the close. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 2.0% higher. 

In other AI-related news, Meta Platforms (META 627.45, +13.74, +2.24%) was a mega-cap standout today after Reuters reported the company is planning to lay off up to 20% of its workforce as AI costs rise. The communication services sector posted a gain of 1.0%.

The consumer discretionary sector (+1.3%) was another top mover, also supported by strength in its mega-cap components. Shares of Amazon (AMZN 211.74, +4.07, +1.96%) rose to session highs after NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said OpenAI will be brought to AWS.

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+1.2%) notched a solid gain today, though it remains 7.1% lower on a year-to-date basis. 

Elsewhere in the sector, cruise lines such as Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 19.84, +0.98, +5.17%) outperformed amid the retreat in oil prices.

Airlines such as United Airlines (UAL 90.28, +3.68, +4.25%) logged similar gains, adding to strength in the industrials sector (+0.9%). 

Meanwhile, Mosaic (MOS 27.67, -1.64, -5.60%) and CF Industries (CF 122.37, -7.20, -5.56%) were the worst-performing S&P 500 names, giving back some of their recent strength as supply chain fears around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recently sent the stocks surging. 

Food and alcohol stocks were also relative laggards today, keeping the consumer staples sector (+0.1%) near its flatline despite a solid move in Dollar Tree (DLTR 114.36, +6.90, +6.42%) after the company narrowly topped EPS estimates but issued an encouraging comparable sales forecast. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.9%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.7%) notched gains similar to those across the major averages. 

All told, today's session marked a solid rebound from previous weakness that saw the major averages test their 200-day moving averages. While a meaningful retreat in oil prices provided the catalyst for a broad buy-the-dip effort, the war in Iran remains without a clear resolution in sight, which could prompt more volatility in the near term. The market will also navigate the March FOMC decision this week (along with a plethora of other central banks), with investors eager to see the effect that the recent surge in oil prices has on the summary of economic projections and the Fed's expected policy outlook. 

U.S. Treasuries had a good run today, logging most of their gains in the overnight trade as oil prices came down. There was some giveback during the cash session, but ultimately securities across the curve regrouped and settled today near their best levels of the session in terms of price and yield. The 2-year note yield settled down five basis points to 3.68%, and the 10-year note yield settled down seven basis points to 4.22%. 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +1.8% YTD
• Russell 2000: +0.9% YTD
• S&P 500: -2.1% YTD
• DJIA: -2.3% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -3.7% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• March Empire State Manufacturing -0.2 (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior 7.1
• February Industrial Production 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior 0.7%, February Capacity Utilization 76.3% (Briefing.com consensus 76.0%); Prior was revised to 76.3% from 76.2%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it marked the fourth straight monthly increase in industrial production, although that streak masks some otherwise tepid output. At 102.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production was just 1.4% above its year-earlier level.
• March NAHB Housing Market Index 38; Prior was revised to 37 from 36

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain firmly higher, remaining well-positioned to start the week with solid gains across the board. 

Crude oil futures settled today's session $5.26 lower (-5.4%) at $93.35 per barrel, with the pullback acting as a catalyst for the broader market today. 

NVIDIA (NVDA 182.93, +2.68, +1.49%) CEO Jensen Huang said that last year he saw $500 billion of purchase orders for Blackwell and Rubin by 2026; he now sees at least $1 trillion by 2027.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+1.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.4%), and DJIA (+0.9%) continue to hold solid gains as the market enters the final hour of the session. 

NVIDIA (NVDA 183.86, +3.61, +2.00%) remains a mega-cap standout following CEO Jensen Huang's keynote address at the company's GTC conference. 

Similar to previous addresses, Mr. Huang's commentary sent several other stocks higher. In particular, Mr. Huang stated that OpenAI will be brought to Amazon's (AMZN 211.65, +3.98, +1.92%) AWS and that NVIDIA has a great partnership with CoreWeave (CRWV 85.60, +4.50, +5.54%). 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&PO 500 (+1.16%) is up 77 points this afternoon, good enough for second place.

Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Ciena (CIEN 363.62,+26.25, +7.78%), Intel (INTC 47.67, +1.90, +4.15%), and Coinbase Global (COIN 204.48, +8.95, +4.58%) pepper the top of the standings. CIEN follows strength in memory and optical peers, while INTC rises on speculation the company could be involved in Tesla's (TSLA 398.21, +7.01, +1.79%) proposed "Terafab" project and ahead of potential partnership announcements with Nvidia at this week's Nvidia GTC conference.

Meanwhile, Bio-Techne (TECH 48.73, -2.12, -4.17%) is one of today's worst laggards.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (+1.23%) is in first place among the major averages with about two hours to go on Monday afternoon.

Gold futures settled $59.50 lower (-1.2%) at $5,002.20/oz, as surging oil prices tied to Middle East tensions stoked inflation concerns and reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Higher Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar also pressured the metal, making non-yielding gold less attractive relative to interest-bearing assets.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.5% to $99.91.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.83%) is in last place among the major averages, albeit up 385 points.

A look inside the DJIA shows that Salesforce (CRM 197.76, +4.93, +2.56%), NVIDIA (NVDA 184.88, +4.63, +2.57%), and Goldman Sachs (GS 794.07, +11.86, +1.52%) are some of today's top gain getters.

Meanwhile, American Express (AXP 297.15, -2.81, -0.94%) is underperforming.

The DJIA trims March losses to -4.16%.

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks opened to broad gains this morning in reaction to geopolitical developments that prompted a pullback in oil prices. Notably, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration plans to announce a multi-country coalition that will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, with the announcement to come as soon as this week. While oil prices remain subdued (crude oil is currently down $2.71 or 2.8% to $96.00 per barrel), the S&P 500 (+1.0%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.3%), and DJIA (+0.8%) have given back a chunk of their early gains. 

Though the major averages have taken a modest step back from their earlier highs, strength remains broad, with nine S&P 500 sectors currently trading higher. 

The information technology sector (+1.5%) has maintained its lead throughout the session and has experienced the least impact from the recent pullback. Semiconductor stocks, and in particular, memory storage names such as Sandisk (SNDK 713.82, +52.20, +7.89%) and Micron (MU 449.62, +23.50, +5.51%) are among the outperformers, pushing the PHLX Semiconductor Index 2.4% higher. 

NVIDIA (NVDA 184.42, +4.17, +2.31%) is one of several "magnificent seven" names that trades higher today as the market waits for CEO Jensen Huang to kick off his keynote address at 2:00 p.m. ET at the company's GTC event. 

Tesla (TSLA 397.29, +6.09, +1.56%) provides solid mega-cap leadership for the consumer discretionary sector (+1.1%), though it currently trades roughly one percentage point under its session highs. 

Elsewhere in the sector, cruise lines such as Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 19.69, +0.82, +4.37%) and Royal Caribbean (RCL 280.35, +7.81, +2.87%) are outperforming after the recent surge in oil prices pressured the group. 

The financials (+0.7%) and communication services (+0.7%) sectors are also among the top movers as cyclical sectors generally outperform today, though both sectors are off of their session highs as well. 

Meanwhile, the materials sector (-0.1%) lags, with fertilizer names such as CF Industries (CF 121.31, -8.26, -6.37%) and Mosaic (MOS 27.76, -1.54, -5.27%) among some of the worst-performing S&P 500 names today. 

The consumer staples sector (flat) is another underperformer, as weakness in food stocks weighs against a solid gain in Dollar Tree (DLTR 114.30, +6.84, +6.37%) after the company reported earnings. 

So far, a lower price of oil and optimism that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could begin to pick up have provided a supportive backdrop for equities and treasuries, helping the major averages reverse course from tests of their 200-day moving averages. The rebound has been particularly notable in the Nasdaq Composite, which has managed to reclaim its 200-day moving average (22,191.85) after briefly trading below that level last week.

Reviewing today's data:

• March Empire State Manufacturing -0.2 (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior 7.1
• February Industrial Production 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior 0.7%, February Capacity Utilization 76.3% (Briefing.com consensus 76.0%); Prior was revised to 76.3% from 76.2%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it marked the fourth straight monthly increase in industrial production, although that streak masks some otherwise tepid output. At 102.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production was just 1.4% above its year-earlier level.
• March NAHB Housing Market Index 38; Prior was revised to 37 from 36

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.8%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.1%), and DJIA (+0.6%) have given back some of their early strength, though they remain firmly seated in positive territory. 

The materials sector (+0.1%) is defending its baseline, with particular weakness in fertilizer names such as CF Industries (CF 121.91, -7.66, -5.91%) and Mosaic (MOS 27.90, -1.42, -4.83%), ceding some of their recent gains that followed supply disruptions pertaining to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. 

Reuters reported that the U.S. and China are aiming to make agreements on agricultural and critical minerals ahead of the upcoming presidential summit.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to trade in a relatively stable range at midday. 

Public Storage (PSA 282.41, -15.31, -5.14%) is trading moderately lower after announcing an agreement to acquire National Storage Affiliates (NSA 39.32, +8.38, +27.11%) in an all-stock transaction valued at roughly $10.5 billion, while NSA shares are soaring on the implied premium embedded in the deal.

Under the terms of the agreement, NSA shareholders will receive 0.580 shares of PSA for each NSA share, implying a value of roughly $41-$42 per share based on PSA's pre-announcement price and representing a meaningful premium to NSA's prior closing level.

The transaction is structured entirely as a stock-for-stock merger, meaning PSA will fund the acquisition through newly issued shares rather than cash, preserving balance-sheet flexibility and limiting incremental leverage while allowing NSA investors to participate in the combined company's upside.

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks are moving higher in broad fashion, which has helped the S&P 500 (+1.2%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.5%), and DJIA (+1.1%) reclaim much of last week's losses. The previous weakness was largely driven by a sustained increase in oil prices as the war in Iran continues to disrupt global supply, with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remaining severely constrained.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration plans to announce a multi-country coalition that will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, with the announcement to come as soon as this week. That development has helped drive a pullback in oil prices today, which has provided some upward momentum for stocks. Currently, crude oil is down $3.16 (-3.2%) to $95.55 per barrel.

All eleven S&P 500 sectors trade higher, with four sectors holding gains of 1.0% or higher. 

The information technology sector (+1.8%) leads the advance amid an outperformance across its semiconductor names, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 3.0%. 

Other notable movers include the consumer discretionary (+1.3%), financials (+1.1%), and industrials (+1.0%) sectors as mega-cap and cyclical stocks outperform. Meta Platforms (META 629.41, +15.70, +2.56%), NVIDIA (NVDA 184.70, +4.44, +2.47%), and Tesla (TSLA 399.81, +8.61, +2.20%) are among the mega-cap standouts that are pushing the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF 1.4% higher.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+1.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.2%) hold gains comparable to those of the major averages.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages are a touch off of their session highs but continue to trade firmly higher as strength remains broad. 

Solid gains across mega-cap stocks are contributing to the index-level gains this morning, with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF up 1.2%. 

Reuters reported that Meta Platforms (META 628.95, +15.24, +2.48%) is planning sweeping layoffs that could affect 20% or more of the company, as the company seeks to offset the expense of AI infrastructure investments and prepare for greater efficiency brought about by AI-assisted workers.

NVIDIA (NVDA 184.04, +3.79, +2.10%) also holds a nice gain as Financial Times reports the company is aiming to introduce a new artificial intelligence "inference" chip at its GTC event this week. CEO Jensen Huang will deliver his keynote address at the GTC Conference today at 2:00 p.m. ET. 

Tesla (TSLA 400.44, +9.24, +2.36%) rounds out the top three "Magnificent Seven" movers this morning, though all seven names are trading higher. Bloomberg reported that rising fuel prices could drive demand for electric vehicles.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (1.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.5%), and DJIA (+1.1%) are maintaining their solid opening gains an hour into today's session. 

While growth stocks are outperforming today, more defensive pockets of the market are still trading with modest gains as the early strength now encompasses all eleven S&P 500 sectors. 

Dollar Tree (DLTR 113.12, +5.66, +5.26%) leads the consumer staples sector (+0.5%) this morning following its Q4 (Jan) earnings report this morning. The initial reaction was muted, but shares moved higher during the call. The dollar store chain narrowly beat on EPS following three consecutive fairly large EPS beats, while revenue was in-line. Q1 (Apr) EPS guidance was somewhat lackluster with the midpoint below consensus, while full-year guidance was generally in-line.

The positive reaction in shares appears driven primarily by a positive earnings call and relief around the company's full-year comparable sales outlook of +3-4%. Investor expectations had become somewhat cautious following weak guidance from peer Dollar General (DG 135.16, +3.32, +2.52%) last week, raising concerns about demand trends across the dollar-store space. Additionally, sentiment was already depressed heading into the report after DLTR shares had fallen roughly 20% over the past month.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+1.2%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.4%), and DJIA (+1.2%) opened to solid gains this morning as the price of oil continues to decrease today. Currently, crude oil is down $4.28 (-4.3%) to $94.43 per barrel. 

Strength is broad, with only the energy sector (-0.1%) trading modestly lower amid the decrease in oil prices. 

The top-weighted information technology sector (+1.6%) leads the advance as memory storage names such as Sandisk (SNDK 708.49, +46.87, +7.08%) and Seagate Tech (STX 409.12, +25.41, +6.62%) dot the top of the S&P 500 leaderboard, pushing the PHLX Semiconductor Index 2.7% higher. 

Other outperformers include groups that have faced particular weakness amid the recent surge in energy prices, such as airlines and cruise lines, which supports gains across the industrials (+1.3%) and consumer discretionary (+1.1%) sectors. 

Industrial production increased 0.2% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) following an unrevised 0.7% increase in January. The capacity utilization rate was 76.3% (Briefing.com consensus: 76.0%), unchanged from an upwardly revised 76.3% (from 76.2%) in January.

The key takeaway from the report is that it marked the fourth straight monthly increase in industrial production, although that streak masks some otherwise tepid output. At 102.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production was just 1.4% above its year-earlier level.

The stock market is on track for a higher opening this morning following an easing in oil prices. 

Mega-cap stocks are providing a nice boost in the premarket, as all of the "magnificent seven" stocks trade higher. Meta Platforms (META 632.90, +19.19, +3.1%) is an early standout. 

Just released, industrial production increased 0.2% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) after rising 0.7% in January.

The capacity utilization rate was 76.3% (Briefing.com consensus 76.0%) versus a revised 76.3% (from 76.2%) in January.

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 58 points above fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region started the week on a mixed note, alternating between concerns about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East that has boosted oil prices and a sense of relief that oil prices were held in check over the weekend despite the U.S. bombing military targets on Kharg Island, Iran's most important oil hub. The Trump administration is reportedly working on forging an international coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, China posted a round of better-than-expected February data for industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment; finance ministers from Japan and South Korea issued a joint statement on defending their currencies from excessive weakness; and President Trump floated the possibility of delaying his March 31 meeting with President Xi. The Bank of Japan is one of 16 central banks due to publish a policy decision this week.

• In economic data:
  • February Chinese Industrial Production 6.3% yr/yr (expected 5.3%; last 5.2%); February Retail Sales 2.8% yr/yr (expected 2.6%; last 0.9%); February Fixed Asset Investment 1.8% yr/yr (expected -5.0%; last -3.8%); February Unemployment Rate 5.3% (expected 5.1%; last 5.1%); February House Prices -3.2% yr/yr (last -3.1%)
  • India February WPI Inflation 2.13% (expected 2.00%; last 1.81%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -0.1%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.5%
• China's Shanghai Composite: -0.8%
• India's Sensex: +1.3%
• South Korea's Kospi: +1.1%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.5%

Major European indices are coursing through today's trade in a mixed fashion, preoccupied as all other markets are with the Iran conflict and its implications for oil prices and the global economy. The Trump administration is pushing allies to form a military coalition to ensure safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.K. is reportedly open to the possibility of sending mine-hunting drones but has shot down the prospect of sending warships. This week will also feature a plethora of central bank policy decisions, including updates from the ECB, Bank of England, and Swiss National Bank, all of which will be scrutinized for how the Iran conflict is shaping inflation expectations and policy perspective for decision makers.

• In economic data:
  • U.K.'s Rightmove House Price Index 0.8% m/m (last 0.0%) and -0.2% yr/yr (last 0.0%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.4%
• Germany's DAX: +0.6%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.6%
• France's CAC 40: +0.2%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: UNCH
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.3%

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 63 points above fair value.

Just released, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey contracted to -0.2 (Briefing.com consensus 0.5) from a prior level of 7.1.

Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning following a losing week for equities that saw the major averages post losses wider than 1.0% across the board. 

The weakness was largely tied to a steady increase in the price of oil as the war in Iran continued while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a near standstill. Developments on the geopolitical front are providing the primary catalyst for equity futures this morning. 

The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration plans to announce a multi-country coalition that will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, with the announcement to come as soon as this week. 

Additionally, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, in an interview, said the Iran war will "certainly come to an end in the next few weeks," noting that he thinks the Strait of Hormuz will be opened in the "not-too-distant future," according to ABC News. 

Oil is currently down $1.62 (-1.6%) to $97.09 per barrel after testing the $100 per barrel mark overnight. 

Energy and geopolitical developments continue to dominate headlines, though there are a few other elements in play this week. 

The Fed will issue its decision for the March FOMC meeting on Wednesday, though the market has priced in no change to the fed funds target rate for some time. However, the market will take note of any commentary and updated projections that come from the meeting, as the recent surge in oil prices has diminished the market's rate cut hopes. 

In corporate news:

• The U.S. and China are set to make agreements on agriculture and critical minerals ahead of the presidential summit, according to Reuters.
• Dollar Tree (DLTR 106.50, -0.96, -0.9%) beat EPS expectations by $0.01, reported revenues in-line, and guided Q1 and FY27 EPS and revenues in-line. 
• Meta (META 631.13, +17.42, +2.8%) is planning large layoffs amid high costs for artificial intelligence, according to Reuters.
• NVIDIA (NVDA 182.63, +2.38, +1.3%) is aiming to introduce a new artificial intelligence "inference" chip at its GTC event this week, according to Financial Times. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region started the week on a mixed note, alternating between concerns about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East that has boosted oil prices and a sense of relief that oil prices were held in check over the weekend despite the U.S. bombing military targets on Kharg Island, Iran's most important oil hub. Japan's Nikkei: -0.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.5%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.8%, India's Sensex: +1.3%, South Korea's Kospi: +1.1%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.5%.

In news:

• The Trump administration is reportedly working on forging an international coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Separately, China posted a round of better-than-expected February data for industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment; finance ministers from Japan and South Korea issued a joint statement on defending their currencies from excessive weakness; and President Trump floated the possibility of delaying his March 31 meeting with President Xi.
• The Bank of Japan is one of 16 central banks due to publish a policy decision this week.

In economic data:

• February Chinese Industrial Production 6.3% yr/yr (expected 5.3%; last 5.2%); February Retail Sales 2.8% yr/yr (expected 2.6%; last 0.9%); February Fixed Asset Investment 1.8% yr/yr (expected -5.0%; last -3.8%); February Unemployment Rate 5.3% (expected 5.1%; last 5.1%); February House Prices -3.2% yr/yr (last -3.1%)
• India February WPI Inflation 2.13% (expected 2.00%; last 1.81%)

Major European indices are coursing through today's trade in a mixed fashion, preoccupied as all other markets are with the Iran conflict and its implications for oil prices and the global economy. STOXX Europe 600: +0.2%, Germany's DAX: +0.4%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.5%, France's CAC 40: +0.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.1%.

In news:

• he Trump administration is pushing allies to form a military coalition to ensure safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The U.K. is reportedly open to the possibility of sending mine-hunting drones but has shot down the prospect of sending warships.
• This week will also feature a plethora of central bank policy decisions, including updates from the ECB, Bank of England, and Swiss National Bank, all of which will be scrutinized for how the Iran conflict is shaping inflation expectations and policy perspective for decision makers.

In economic data:

• U.K.'s Rightmove House Price Index 0.8% m/m (last 0.0%) and -0.2% yr/yr (last 0.0%)

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended a tough week on a familiar note, with the S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%), and DJIA (-0.3%) finishing lower amid a renewed surge in oil prices. 

Stocks opened to solid, broad-based gains as crude oil dipped this morning, trading down to nearly $92 per barrel shortly before the stock market opened.

Oil began to creep higher in the late morning hours, ultimately settling today's session 3.0% higher at $98.56 per barrel. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon is sending more Marines and warships to the Middle East, potentially to help escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the market is unconvinced that the war in Iran will come to a timely conclusion. 

The bounce in oil prices saw stocks largely cede their early gains. All eleven S&P 500 sectors traded higher this morning, though just five finished with gains. 

Tech stocks faced the sharpest reversal, with the information technology sector (-1.3%) finishing as the worst performer after trading over 1.0% higher to start the session. 

Oracle (ORCL 155.10, -4.06, -2.55%) gave back some of its post-earnings strength, with software stocks being a point of relative weakness today. The iShares GS Software ETF finished 0.9% lower. 

Chipmakers were among the early outperformers, and while memory storage names such as Sandisk (SNDK 661.50, +42.68, +6.90%) and Micron (MU 426.13, +20.78, +5.13%) put together solid performances, weakness across other chipmakers such as Broadcom (AVGO 322.16, -13.81, -4.11%) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 193.39, -4.35, -2.20%) left the PHLX Semiconductor Index up just 0.1% higher after holding a gain that exceeded 2.0%. 

Elsewhere in the sector, Adobe (ADBE 249.32, -20.46, -7.58%) lagged despite topping earnings expectations after it was announced that the company's CEO will be departing. 

Meta Platforms (META 613.71, -24.47, -3.83%) was another notable laggard today following reports that the company's latest AI model would be postponed. The stock's underperformance weighed heavily on the communication services sector (-1.0%). 

The materials sector (-1.0%) rounds out the three S&P 500 sectors that logged declines of 1.0% or wider. Fertilizer names such as Mosaic (MOS 29.31, -2.05, -6.55%) and CF Industries (CF 129.58, -6.42, -4.72%) gave back some of yesterday's strength amid reports of supply disruption in the Middle East. 

Meanwhile, the defensive utilities (+0.9%) and consumer staples (+0.5%) sectors outperformed amid the weakness in tech and other growth stocks today. 

The energy sector (+0.4%) also notched a modest gain as oil prices climbed, while the real estate (+0.2%) and financials (+0.1%) sectors finished just slightly higher. 

Investors also received a big batch of economic data this morning, which was a bit of a mixed bag. There was a downward revision to Q4 GDP (to 0.7% from 1.4%; Briefing.com consensus 1.4%), a January Personal Income/Outlays report that showed the PCE Price Index (0.3%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) increase 2.8% on a year-over-year basis versus 2.9% in December, a Durable Orders report that featured a solid increase in business investment in January (+0.9%), and an uptick in job openings (6.946 million) from a level not seen since December 2020.

While the PCE Price Index showed a modest decline in the year-over-year level, the market is operating under the assumption that upcoming months will likely run hotter due to the surge in oil prices. 

Today's intraday retreat underscores the market's vulnerability to rising energy prices as the war in Iran continues, pressuring both stocks and Treasury yields as the market's rate cut expectations diminish even further. 

U.S. Treasuries of most tenors tried to bounce on Friday, but the early uptick eventually gave way to continued selling that left the complex deep in the red for the week. The 2-year note yield settled down three basis points to 3.73% (+17 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points to 4.29% (+16 basis points this week). 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +1.1% YTD
• Russell 2000: -0.1% YTD
• S&P 500: -3.1% YTD
• DJIA: -3.1% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -4.9% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 1.4%) from the advance estimate of 1.4%. The GDP Price Deflator was revised to 3.8% from 3.6% in the advance estimate.
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that growth decelerated notably in Q4 while the Price Deflator was revised higher, which is a disappointing combination.
• Personal Income increased 0.4% month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) after rising 0.3% in December. Personal spending was also up 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following a 0.4% increase in December. The PCE Price Index rose 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), while the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%). On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price Index increased 2.8% versus 2.9% in December, and the core PCE Price Index increased 3.1%, versus 3.0% in December.
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE Price Index, edged up in January, which presents a headwind to rate cut expectations.
• Durable goods orders were flat month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%). Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) after increasing a revised 1.3% (from 0.9%) in December.
• The key takeaway from the report is that the flat headline reading masked a solid 0.9% increase in nondefense capital goods orders, which is a proxy for business investment.
• The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March fell to 55.5 (Briefing.com consensus 55.7) from the final reading of 56.6 for February. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 57.0.
• The key takeaway from the report is that roughly half of the interviews were conducted before military action in Iran, which spurred a rally in energy prices. Therefore, the Consumer Sentiment Index is likely to be revised lower in the final reading for March.
• The January Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report saw 6.946 million job openings, up from an upwardly revised 6.550 (from 6.542 million).