[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks had a solid session today, though they finished off their session highs as the market reacted to the release of the January FOMC minutes this afternoon. 

Several participants indicated that they would have supported a two-sided description of the Committee's future interest rate decisions, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation remains at above-target levels. Still, the market's expected timeline for its next rate cut remains relatively unchanged. While there was some profit-taking in reaction to the release, the market reversed its downward course and moved higher for the final half hour of the session. 

The S&P 500 (+0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%), and DJIA (+0.3%) finished with roughly half of their earlier gains, supported by solid mega-cap leadership and relatively broad strength. The S&P 500 moved back into positive territory for the year, eclipsing its 50-day moving average (6,894.53) in the session but failing to close above the level. 

Strength was broad, with eight S&P 500 sectors finishing with gains. 

The information technology sector (+1.2%) was among the outperformers, as mega-cap and tech names led the market higher from the open. 

Software stocks were among the outperformers, garnering some bargain-hunting interest after prolonged weakness. Cadence Design (CDNS 305.01, +21.55, +7.60%) finished with the widest gain after Rosenblatt upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral, while AppLovin (APP 404.39, +28.01, +7.44%) posted a similar gain. Even Microsoft (MSFT 399.60, +2.74, +0.69%), which has struggled in recent weeks following its latest earnings release, notched a higher finish. The iShares GS Software ETF finished 1.3% higher

NVIDIA (NVDA 187.98, +3.01, +1.63%) performed even better, contributing to the PHLX Semiconductor Index's 1.0% gain. Micron (MU 420.95, +21.17, +5.30%) and other memory storage names rebounded particularly well from a weaker showing yesterday. 

Amazon (AMZN 204.79, +3.64, +1.81%) was another mega-cap standout, helping the consumer discretionary sector (+1.0%) finish higher. All told, the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+0.6%) captured a nice gain despite some profit-taking in the afternoon. 

Elsewhere in the sector, Garmin (GRMN 236.95, +19.97, +9.20%) was one of the top-performing S&P 500 names after an earnigns beat, while MGM Resorts (MGM 37.17, +2.90, +8.46%) finished similarly amid a strong day for casino stocks after Caesars Entertainment's (CZR 21.42, +2.47, +13.03%) earnings release. 

Global Payments (GPN 81.25, +11.48, +16.46%) was the S&P 500's top performer as a result of its own earnings beat, leading strength in the financials sector (+0.8%), which benefitted from some buying activity across financial publishing and servicing stocks that have recently slid amid fears of AI disruption. 

Meanwhile, this year's best-performing sector, the energy sector (+2.0%), once again captured the widest gain. Crude oil futures settled today's session $2.66 higher (+4.3%) at $64.99 per barrel as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate, with reports that both sides are preparing for military conflict. 

With growth and cyclical stocks mounting solid gains today, weakness was limited to the defensive utilities (-1.7%) and consumer staples (-0.5%) sectors, while the real estate sector (-1.5) also retreated. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.5%) followed a similar trajectory to the major averages, finishing with around half of their earlier gains. 

Ultimately, today's session was an encouraging sign given last week's volatility and yesterday's flattish showing. While the January FOMC minutes carried a hawkish tilt that trimmed some of the market's earlier strength, the major averages still posted solid gains, supported by firm mega-cap leadership and constructive breadth. The ability to rebound after the initial reaction to the minutes suggests underlying demand remains intact, even as rate-cut expectations stay largely unchanged.

U.S. Treasuries had a modestly lower showing on Wednesday that pressured the complex from January highs that were reached during Tuesday's session. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.46%, and the 10-year note yield settled up three basis points to 4.08%. 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +8.5% YTD
• Russell 2000: +7.1% YTD
• DJIA: +3.3% YTD
• S&P 500: +0.5% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -2.1% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index 2.8%; Prior -0.3%
• December Housing Starts 1.404 mln (Briefing.com consensus 1.320 mln); Prior 1.322 mln, December Building Permits 1.448 mln (Briefing.com consensus 1.412 mln); Prior 1.388 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it is not the answer for a supply-constrained housing market. Single-unit permits were down overall, but they fell the sharpest in the South (-5.3%), which is the nation's largest homebuilding region.
• December Durable Orders -1.4% (Briefing.com consensus -2.6%); Prior was revised to 5.4% from 5.3%, December Durable Orders - ex transportation 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.5%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness was concentrated in the transportation component. Otherwise, it was a solid report featuring a 0.6% increase in nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, which is a key gauge of business spending.
• December Industrial Production 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior was revised to 0.2% from 0.4%, December Capacity Utilization 76.2% (Briefing.com consensus 76.5%); Prior was revised to 75.7% from 76.3%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that industrial production growth easily exceeded estimates thanks to a healthy 0.6% increase in manufacturing output, which was the biggest since February 2025, and a secondary boost from an increase in the output of utilities.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%), and DJIA (+0.1%) are on the defensive as the market enters the final hour of the session. 

In addition to mega-caps seeing their gains narrowed this afternoon, strength in the broader market has waned. Advancers outpaced decliners by a roughly 2-to-1 clip on both the NYSE and Nasdaq early this afternoon. Now, the margin has slimmed to roughly 7-to-6 on the NYSE and 5-to-4 on the Nasdaq. 

Five sectors remain in positive territory, but only the energy sector (+1.8%) boasts a gain wider than 1.0%. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%), and DJIA (+0.1%) have shed over half their previous gains as the market reacts to the release of the January FOMC minutes. 

Of particular note, several participants indicated that they would have supported a two-sided description of the Committee's future interest rate decisions, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation remains at above-target levels.

The prospect of a rate hike largely contradicts the market's previous view that while the next rate cut remained several months away, multiple cuts were still expected this year. 

In turn, growth stocks have seen the most profit-taking this afternoon. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+0.4%) and Russell 2000 (+0.4%) both sported gains wider than 1.0% earlier in the session. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.56%) is in second place on Wednesday afternoon, up about 38 points following the release of the FOMC's January meeting minutes from the top of the hour.

The January minutes show a Fed that is maintaining a cautious stance, balancing inflation risks against the outlook for employment. Several participants indicated they would have supported a two-sided description of the Committee's future rate decisions, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments could be appropriate if inflation remains above target. At the same time, almost all members favored holding rates steady at the Jan. 27-28 meeting, with only a couple preferring a cut. Policymakers emphasized that monetary policy is not on a preset path and will remain guided by incoming data, evolving economic conditions, and the balance of risks.

Inflation continues to be the key focus for policymakers. Most participants expect price growth to gradually move toward the 2% target, though the timing and speed of this adjustment remain uncertain. Several officials warned that further rate cuts amid elevated inflation could be seen as weakening the Fed's commitment to its goal, potentially entrenching higher prices. At the same time, a few participants emphasized that overly restrictive policy could weigh on the labor market, underscoring the need to carefully balance the risks to achieve both stable prices and strong employment.

On the labor market and growth, the minutes show that downside risks to employment have moderated in recent months, with conditions showing signs of stabilization. Economic activity appeared to be expanding at a solid pace, and participants generally expect growth to remain robust through 2026. The Fed staff's outlook projects slightly higher inflation than in December and a gradual decline in unemployment starting this year, indicating confidence that the labor market will stabilize and improve under an appropriate policy stance.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (+1.01%) is in first place, up about 228 points.

Gold futures settled $103.60 higher (+2.0%) at $5,009.50/oz, as buyers stepped in after recent selling, with traders citing safe-haven demand amid ongoing geopolitical tension and positioning ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's January minutes that could reinforce a softer rate outlook. The rally was also supported by a modest pullback in yields and a slightly softer dollar, which tends to boost dollar-priced commodities like gold.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up about +0.5% to $97.60.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.56%) is in last place among the major averages, albeit up 275 points.

A look inside the DJIA shows that Goldman Sachs (GS 937.71, +21.67, +2.37%), Amazon (AMZN 205.76, +4.61, +2.29%), and NVIDIA (NVDA 189.22, +4.25, +2.30%) are some of today's top gain getters.

Meanwhile, 3M (MMM 163.61, -4.01, -2.39%) is underperforming.

The DJIA now stands +1.87% higher month-to-date.

Elsewhere, recent action saw a slip to fresh lows in longer tenors while the 5-yr note and shorter tenors hover a bit above their morning highs and below their starting levels. Intraday action was very subdued until a recent jolt that resulted from a weak $16 bln 20-yr bond auction. The just completed sale drew a high yield of 4.664%, which tailed the when-issued yield by two basis points. The bid-to-cover ratio (2.36x) was below average (2.64x) while indirect takedown (55.2%) was also below average (65.3%).

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks are putting together a strong session with broad strength and firm mega-cap leadership lifting the S&P 500 (+1.0%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.4%), and DJIA (+0.7%) throughout the session. Notably, today's gains have the S&P 500 back into modestly positive year-to-date territory and back above its 50-day moving average (6,894.53). 

Seven S&P 500 sectors trade higher, with several notable gains in the mix. 

The top-weighted information technology sector (+1.5%) is near the top of the leaderboard, supported by broad strength across its components. 

Software stocks are finally garnering some buying interest after prolonged weakness, with the iShares GS Software ETF currently up 1.9%. Cadence Design (CDNS 308.78, +25.32, +8.93%) leads the advance after Rosenblatt upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral, while AppLovin (APP 402.28, +25.90, +6.88%) and even Microsoft (MSFT 401.01, +4.15, +1.05%) also sport solid gains. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (+1.5%) is also higher today. Micron (MU 425.08, +25.30, +6.33%) and other memory names are rebounding nicely from yesterday's weakness, while NVIDIA (NVDA 189.08, +4.11, +2.22%) is a mega-cap standout after announcing a multiyear strategic partnership with Meta Platforms (META 640.50, +1.21, +0.19%). 

Amazon (AMZN 205.95, +4.80, +2.38%) and Tesla (TSLA 415.34, +4.71, +1.15%) add to the mega-cap strength, contributing to the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF's 1.0% advance. 

Elsewhere in the consumer discretionary sector (+1.5%), Garmin (GRMN 238.77, +21.79, +10.04%) moves higher after earnings while casino stocks are also among the outperformers. 

Several other cyclical sectors boast nice gains early in the afternoon, which helps the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+0.8%) keep up with the market-weighted S&P 500 (+1.0%). 

The energy sector (+1.6%) holds the widest gain as crude oil prices increase $2.59 (+4.2%) to $64.85 per barrel following an Axios report that the Trump administration is moving closer to a large-scale military intervention in Iran. 

The materials sector (+1.0%) moves higher as precious metal prices recover from yesterday's slide, while the financials sector (+1.0%) holds a similar gain as financial publishing names, which have faced weakness recently due to fears of AI disruption, move higher. 

Today's weakness is largely concentrated in more defensive sectors, with the utilities (-1.0%), consumer staples (-0.4%), and health care (-0.1%) sectors all moving lower. The real estate sector (-1.2%) also faces considerable pressure. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+1.1%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.9%) sport solid gains as the broader market displays a more risk-on positioning today. 

Overall, the session underscores improving breadth and leadership, with cyclical sectors and mega-caps driving a well-rounded advance. If these gains hold into the close, the action would point to a more constructive tone following recent consolidation and choppy trading.

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index 2.8%; Prior -0.3%
• December Housing Starts 1.404 mln (Briefing.com consensus 1.320 mln); Prior 1.322 mln, December Building Permits 1.448 mln (Briefing.com consensus 1.412 mln); Prior 1.388 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it is not the answer for a supply-constrained housing market. Single-unit permits were down overall, but they fell the sharpest in the South (-5.3%), which is the nation's largest homebuilding region.
• December Durable Orders -1.4% (Briefing.com consensus -2.6%); Prior was revised to 5.4% from 5.3%, December Durable Orders - ex transportation 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.5%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness was concentrated in the transportation component. Otherwise, it was a solid report featuring a 0.6% increase in nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, which is a key gauge of business spending.
• December Industrial Production 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior was revised to 0.2% from 0.4%, December Capacity Utilization 76.2% (Briefing.com consensus 76.5%); Prior was revised to 75.7% from 76.3%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that industrial production growth easily exceeded estimates thanks to a healthy 0.6% increase in manufacturing output, which was the biggest since February 2025, and a secondary boost from an increase in the output of utilities.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.8%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.2%), and DJIA (+0.6%) remain firmly higher shortly after midday. 

Caesars Entertainment (CZR 21.62, +2.67, +14.09%) is surging higher following its 4Q25 earnings report, as results were better than feared and management outlined a compelling free cash flow outlook for 2026, overshadowing an EPS miss. Expectations were extremely low heading into the print, with the stock down more than 50% year-over-year, so improved operating trends and clearer capital return visibility are driving a sharp relief rally. While CZR reported a GAAP loss of $(1.23) per share, investors are instead focusing on cash flow generation and improving segment profitability.

Investors are encouraged by a better-than-feared quarter and, more importantly, a clearer path to materially stronger free cash flow in 2026. Sequential improvement in Las Vegas, resilient regional trends, and a sharp profitability inflection in Caesars Digital reduce downside risk. With capex rolling off and balance sheet pressures easing, investors appear increasingly focused on forward cash generation and capital returns rather than headline GAAP losses. 

Though no longer a component of the S&P 500 itself, the move has rippled across other casino and gaming names such as MGM Resorts (MGM 37.05, +2.78, +8.11%) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN 118.56, +4.16, +3.63%), adding to strength in the consumer discretionary sector (+1.6%).

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages trade in a steady range, little changed from previous levels. 

Memory stocks such as Micron (MU 426.90, +27.12, +6.78%) and Western Digital (WDC 305.85, +21.74, +7.65%) are among today's outperformers, rebounding nicely from a weaker showing yesterday. 

Micron moved lower yesterday after The Wall Street Journal reported that the company is set to spend $200 billion to expand memory capacity. Today, the stock benefits from several notable 13F filings. 

Discovery Capital disclosed a new position of 105K shares, while Appaloosa increased its position from 0.5 million to 1.5 million shares. 

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks are mostly higher today, with the S&P 500 (+0.9%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.3%), and DJIA (+0.6%) sporting solid gains just before midday. 

The major averages are supported by strength in many of their largest components. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF is up 1.0%, with notable performances lifting the information technology (+1.6%) and consumer discretionary (+1.6%) to the top of today's leaderboard. 

Amazon (AMZN 206.54, +5.39, +2.68%) finally sees some momentum after yesterday's higher finish snapped a losing streak dating back to February 2. 

NVIDIA (NVDA 189.71, +4.74, +2.56%) is up similarly after announcing a multiyear partnership with Meta Platforms (META 640.39, +1.10, +0.17%), and even Microsoft (MSFT 401.09, +4.23, +1.07%) gets in on the action as software names rebound from recent weakness today. 

While mega-cap gains certainly play a role in the index-level gains, strength is not limited to just the market's largest components. The energy (+1.4%) and materials (+1.2%) sectors both confidently rebound from yesterday's weakness, while the financials sector (+0.8%) expands upon its previous gain. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+0.7%) just barely trails the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.9%). 

Elsewhere, the Russell 2000 (+1.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.0%) also outperform, suggesting a broader improvement in risk sentiment following recent volatility. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue their steady advance. 

Palo Alto Networks (PANW 153.90, -9.60, -5.87%) is sharply lower after reporting its Q2 (Jan) results last night. The company beat Q2 EPS and revenue expectations, with revenue rising 14.9% year-over-year to $2.59 billion. However, guidance was mixed. For Q3, revenue of $2.941-2.945 billion was above expectations, but EPS of $0.78-0.80 was below, and for FY26, PANW raised revenue to $11.28-11.31 billion but lowered EPS to $3.65-3.70, also below expectations. While the top-line outlook is surging from the CyberArk and Chronosphere deals, the downside EPS guide implies margin pressure from integration-related costs and higher input costs, which are weighing on the stock.

Meanwhile, Analog Devices (ADI 347.53, +10.02, +2.97%) is trading nicely following its impressive Q1 (Jan) report this morning and its announcement of an 11% dividend increase. Q1 EPS was a nice bounce back after a very narrow beat in Q4 (Oct). The stock had run around 40% since the Q4 report/guidance, which made us a bit nervous heading into this print given elevated sentiment and the risk of a pullback on any misstep. However, ADI delivered across the board.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.8%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.2%), and DJIA (+0.6%) continue to move higher this morning, with the S&P 500 reclaiming its 50-day moving average (6,894.53). 

The top-weighted information technology sector (+1.6%) now holds the widest gain an hour into the session. 

Encouragingly, software stocks are finally garnering some buying support after fears of AI disruption have caused a prolonged bout of weakness across the group. The iShares GS Software ETF is up 1.6%.

Cadence Design (CDNS 306.38, +22.92, +8.08%) is the top mover in the technology sector after Rosenblatt upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral, while Palantir Technologies (PLTR 140.68, +7.66, +5.75%) and AppLovin (APP 397.71, +21.33, +5.67%) also move sharply higher. 

Elsewhere in the sector, chipmakers are also putting together a solid session, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 1.8%. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%), and DJIA (+0.4%) are higher across the board this morning. 

Strength in the broader market tilts mostly higher, with technology and select cyclical sectors trading higher, while defensive sectors lag. 

The energy sector (+1.2%) boasts the widest gain as the price of oil increases $2.03 (+3.3%) to $64.29 per barrel. Yesterday's reports of optimistic developments between the U.S. and Iran have been met with some contention today. 

The financials sector (+0.9%) is another top mover, with Global Payments (GPN 78.75, +8.98, +12.87%) sharply higher after an earnings beat. 

Garmin (GRMN 254.99, +38.01, +17.52%) is also sharply higher after an earnings beat, helping the consumer discretionary sector (+1.0%) jump out to a nice gain. Amazon (AMZN 205.14, +3.99, +1.98%) is nicely higher today after capturing its first higher finish yesterday since February 2. 

NVIDIA (NVDA 188.36, +3.39, +1.83%) also expands on yesterday's gains, with news of a multi-year strategic partnership with Meta Platforms (META 634.93, -4.36, -0.68%) lifting it higher today. The top-weighted information technology sector is up 0.7%.

Industrial production increased 0.7% month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) after rising a revised 0.2% (from 0.4%) in December. The capacity utilization rate was 76.2% (Briefing.com consensus 76.5%) versus a revised 75.7% (from 76.3%) in December. Total industrial production increased 2.3% year-over-year while the capacity utilization rate was 3.2 percentage points below its long-run average.

The key takeaway from the report is that industrial production growth easily exceeded estimates thanks to a healthy 0.6% increase in manufacturing output, which was the biggest since February 2025, and a secondary boost from an increase in the output of utilities.

The stock market is on track for a higher opening following a hefty slate of economic data this morning. 

Total housing starts increased 6.2% month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.404 million units (Briefing.com consensus: 1320K), with single-unit starts up 4.1%. Building permits increased 4.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.448 million (Briefing.com consensus: 1412K), with single-unit permits down 1.7%.

The key takeaway from the report is that it is not the answer for a supply-constrained housing market. Single-unit permits were down overall, but they fell the sharpest in the South (-5.3%), which is the nation's largest homebuilding region.

Durable goods orders declined 1.4% month-over-month in December (Briefing.com consensus: -2.6%), paced by a 5.3% decline in transportation equipment orders. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.9% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) following a 0.4% increase in November.

The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness was concentrated in the transportation component. Otherwise, it was a solid report featuring a 0.6% increase in nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, which is a key gauge of business spending.

Just released, industrial production increased 0.7% month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) following a downwardly revised 0.2% increase (from 0.4%) in December.

The capacity utilization rate was 76.2% (Briefing.com consensus 76.5%) versus a downwardly revised 75.7% (from 76.3%) in December.

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 13 points above fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Wednesday on a mostly higher note while markets in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea remained closed for Lunar New Year. Japan's January trade balance showed strong export growth with exports to the EU and China making up for lower exports to the U.S. Japan's trade minister announced that $36 bln will be invested into three projects in the U.S. as part of the trade deal. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its official cash rate at 2.25%, as expected. The central bank's forward guidance left the door open for a rate hike by the end of the year.

• In economic data:
  • Japan's January trade surplus JPY460 bln (expected deficit of JPY180 bln; last deficit of JPY60 bln). January Imports -2.5% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 5.2%) and Exports 16.8% yr/yr (expected 12.0%; last 5.1%)
  • Australia's January MI Leading Index -0.1% m/m (last 0.1%). Q4 Wage Price Index 0.8% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.8%); 3.4% yr/yr (last 3.3%)
  • New Zealand's Q4 Input PPI -0.5% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; last 0.2%); 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.6%; last 0.6%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +1.0%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: CLOSED
• China's Shanghai Composite: CLOSED
• India's Sensex: +0.3%
• South Korea's Kospi: CLOSED
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.6%

Major European indices trade in the green. British inflation decelerated notably in January, increasing expectations for a March rate cut from the Bank of England. European Central Bank President Lagarde is reportedly planning to leave her post before the French presidential election in early 2027, though her term as ECB president does not end until October 2027. European Central Bank policymaker Villeroy de Galhau said that French growth is expected to exceed 1.0% this year, adding that the ECB has won the battle against inflation.

• In economic data:
  • U.K.'s January CPI -0.5% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%); 3.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.4%). January Core CPI -0.6% m/m (expected -0.7%; last 0.3%); 3.1% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 3.2%). January Input PPI 0.4% m/m, as expected (last -0.5%) and Output PPI 0.0% m/m (expected 0.2%; last -0.1%). January House Price Index 2.4% yr/yr (expected 1.8%; last 2.5%)
  • France's January CPI -0.3% m/m, as expected (last 0.1%); 0.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 0.8%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.8%
• Germany's DAX: +0.7%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.1%
• France's CAC 40: +0.3%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.1%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +1.0%

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 30 points above fair value. 

Housing starts in December increased 6.2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.404 million (Briefing.com consensus: 1.320 million).

Building permits increased 4.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.448 million (Briefing.com consensus: 1.412 million).

Durable goods orders decreased 1.4% month-over-month in December (Briefing.com consensus: -2.6%) following an upwardly revised 5.4% increase (from 5.3%) for November.

Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.9% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) following a downwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.5%) for November.

Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning as several mega-cap tech names make nice moves higher in the premarket. Solid mega-cap performance helped the major averages eke out slight gains yesterday despite a choppy session of mixed strength. 

While tech finished modestly higher, software names remained under pressure amid fears of AI disruption. 

Earnings are still in full swing, generating notable stock-specific moves both yesterday and this morning. 

The market also has quite a few economic data releases to look forward to this morning, including December housing starts (Briefing.com consensus 1320K) and building permits (Briefing.com consensus 1412K), January Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 76.5%), and the January FOMC meeting minutes. 

The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended February 14 increased 2.8%, from a prior decrease of 0.3%. 

In corporate news:

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM 308.00, +0.87, +0.3%) aims to open 160 branches across dozens of states, according to Financial Times. 
• NVIDIA (NVDA 188.53, +3.56, +1.9%) and Meta Platforms (META 638.51, -0.78, -0.1%) expanded thier chip partnership for Meta's AI buildout, according to CNBC.
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW 151.39, -12.11, -7.4% beat EPS estimates by $0.09, reported revenues in-line, guidesd Q3 EPS below consensus with revenues above consensus; guided FY26 EPS below consensus with revenues above consensus.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Wednesday on a mostly higher note while markets in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea remained closed for Lunar New Year. Japan's Nikkei: +1.0%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: CLOSED, China's Shanghai Composite: CLOSED, India's Sensex: +0.3%, South Korea's Kospi: CLOSED, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.6%.

In news:

• Japan's January trade balance showed strong export growth with exports to the EU and China making up for lower exports to the U.S. Japan's trade minister announced that $36 bln will be invested into three projects in the U.S. as part of the trade deal.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its official cash rate at 2.25%, as expected.
• The central bank's forward guidance left the door open for a rate hike by the end of the year.

In economic data:

• Japan's January trade surplus JPY460 bln (expected deficit of JPY180 bln; last deficit of JPY60 bln). January Imports -2.5% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 5.2%) and Exports 16.8% yr/yr (expected 12.0%; last 5.1%)
• Australia's January MI Leading Index -0.1% m/m (last 0.1%). Q4 Wage Price Index 0.8% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.8%); 3.4% yr/yr (last 3.3%)
• New Zealand's Q4 Input PPI -0.5% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; last 0.2%); 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.6%; last 0.6%)

Major European indices trade in the green. STOXX Europe 600: +0.9%, Germany's DAX: +0.8%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.0%, France's CAC 40: +0.5%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: +1.1%.

In news: 

• British inflation decelerated notably in January, increasing expectations for a March rate cut from the Bank of England.
• European Central Bank President Lagarde is reportedly planning to leave her post before the French presidential election in early 2027, though her term as ECB president does not end until October 2027.
• European Central Bank policymaker Villeroy de Galhau said that French growth is expected to exceed 1.0% this year, adding that the ECB has won the battle against inflation.

In economic data:

• U.K.'s January CPI -0.5% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%); 3.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.4%). January Core CPI -0.6% m/m (expected -0.7%; last 0.3%); 3.1% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 3.2%). January Input PPI 0.4% m/m, as expected (last -0.5%) and Output PPI 0.0% m/m (expected 0.2%; last -0.1%). January House Price Index 2.4% yr/yr (expected 1.8%; last 2.5%)
• France's January CPI -0.3% m/m, as expected (last 0.1%); 0.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 0.8%)

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks had a volatile start to the holiday-abbreviated week, with the slight gains across the S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%), and DJIA (+0.1%) belying the intraday swings of the market. The Russell 2000 (flat) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.1%) followed a similar course today and ended up on near flat lines. 

The major averages faced considerable losses this morning as the market opened to what appeared to be a continuation of weakness across its mega-cap components and many of its tech components. 

The information technology sector (+0.5%) traded as much as 1.0% lower in the morning but steadily chipped away at the early weakness, rising as much as 1.1% in the afternoon before finishing with a more modest gain. 

Several of the sector's largest components mounted solid advances that masked broader weakness in the sector. Apple (AAPL 263.88, +8.10, +3.17%) was a mega-cap standout ahead of potential new product launches on March 4, while NVIDIA (NVDA 184.97, +2.16, +1.18%) and Broadcom (AVGO 332.54, +7.37, +2.27%) helped the PHLX Semiconductor Index (flat) erase its early losses that neared 2.5%.

However, software names never found their footing, sending the iShares GS Software ETF (-2.2%) firmly lower.

Mega-cap performance was mixed outside of the technology sector, with the communication services sector (-0.6%) finishing lower amid weakness in Alphabet (GOOG 302.82, -3.20, -1.05%). 

CNBC reported that Netflix (NFLX 77.00, +0.13, +0.17%) has granted Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 28.75, +0.76, +2.72%) a seven-day waiver to reopen potential deal talks with Paramount Skydance (PSKY 10.83, +0.51, +4.94%), which traded sharply higher today.

The consumer discretionary sector finished flat, as Tesla (TSLA 410.63, -6.81, -1.63%) was a mega-cap laggard, while Amazon (AMZN 201.15, +2.36, +1.19%) notched its first higher finish since Monday, February 2. All told, the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 0.3% higher. 

Elsewhere in the sector, Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 24.12, +2.63, +12.24%) was the best-performing S&P 500 stock after Eliott Investment Management disclosed a roughly 10% stake in the company, while Genuine Parts (GPC 125.75, -21.41, -14.55%) was the worst-performing S&P 500 component following an earnings miss and plans to split into two distinct companies. 

Other cyclical sectors posted mixed performances today. 

The financials sector (+1.0%) outperformed amid solid performances across major banking and card names, while Fiserv (FISV 63.45, +4.09, +6.89%) notched the widest after The Wall Street Journal reported that Jana Partners has built a stake of undetermined size in the company.

The industrials sector also finished nicely higher as Southwest Air (LUV 54.24, +3.14, +6.13%) rose after UBS upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral, sending airline peers higher as well. 

Meanwhile, the energy sector (-1.4%) retreated as crude oil futures settled today's session $0.52 lower (-0.8%) at $62.33 per barrel amid optimistic developments in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. 

Similarly, decreasing precious metals prices sent the materials sector (-1.2%) lower, with Vulcan Materials (VMC 302.19, -25.46, -7.77%) a notable post-earnings laggard. 

Defensive sectors generally retreated as tech and other growth stocks shook off their early weakness. The consumer staples sector (-1.5%) closed with the widest loss today. After an impressive run-up, Walmart (WMT 128.85, -5.04, -3.76%) moved lower ahead of its earnigns this week. 

General Mills (GIS 44.96, -3.38, -6.98%) sunk after lowering its FY26 outlook, while other food brands such as Campbell Soup (CPB 27.77, -1.72, -5.83%) and Conagra (CAG 18.89, -0.87, -4.40%) lagged after HHS Secretary Kennedy said on 60 Minutes that ultra-processed foods are responsible for the country's obesity problems.

All told, it was an eventful start to the week, with earnings, guidance, brokerage research, and activist investors all generating some notable moves today. Action remains volatile across mega-cap and tech spaces, though the major averages were able to shake off the early weakness to notch slight gains today. 

U.S. Treasuries started the holiday-shortened week with a modest gain in the 30-year bond, while the 2-year note underperformed, giving back a chunk of its solid gain from Friday. The 2-year note yield settled up three basis points to 3.44%, the 10-year note yield finished unchanged at 4.05%, and the 30-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.68%. 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +7.9% YTD
• Russell 2000: +6.9% YTD
• DJIA: +3.1% YTD
• S&P 500: flat YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -2.9% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• February Empire State Manufacturing 7.1 (Briefing.com consensus 7.1); Prior 7.7
• February NAHB Housing Market Index 36 (Briefing.com consensus 38); Prior 37