[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended a constructive week on a subdued note, with the S&P 500 (-0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%), and DJIA (-0.6%) spending today's session in a relatively tight range near their baselines.

It was a quiet day on the geopolitical front ahead of this weekend's talks between the U.S. and Iran that will be led by Vice President Vance. President Trump told The New York Post that the U.S. military will resume strikes against Iran if negotiations do not result in a deal, but that had little effect on stocks or oil prices. WTI crude traded in a stable range around the $98 per barrel mark, and crude oil futures settled today's session $1.34 lower (-1.4%) at $96.55 per barrel.

The market received a full slate of economic data this morning, which offered an early look at how the Iran conflict is affecting inflation and consumer sentiment readings. The headline March CPI reading (0.9%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.7%) came in hotter-than-expected due to the surge in energy prices, while the core reading (0.2%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) was better than feared. Additionally, the preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April fell to 47.6 (Briefing.com consensus: 52.0), though the market had a muted response to the report as nearly all responses to the survey were captured before the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7.

Strength was mixed today, with four S&P 500 sectors finishing in positive territory.

The top-weighted information technology sector (+0.8%) captured the widest gain, which helped prevent further losses at the index level. Semiconductor stocks put together another strong showing after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 370.60, +5.11, +1.40%) reported upside Q1 revenues, which resulted in solid gains across large chipmakers such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 245.04, +8.40, +3.55%) and NVIDIA (NVDA 188.74, +4.84, +2.63%).

Super Micro Computer (SMCI 25.26, +2.04, +8.79%) and Coherent (COHR 307.50, +23.33, +8.21%) captured even wider gains, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 2.3% higher.

Though not a component of the S&P 500, CoreWeave (CRWV 102.00, +10.00, +10.87%) posted another double-digit gain after announcing a multi-year agreement with Anthropic to support the development and training of its Claude family of AI models.

Conversely, Anthropic's launch of its Managed Agents platform weighed heavily on Akamai Tech (AKAM 91.35, -18.26, -16.66%) amid intensifying fears around AI-driven disruption of traditional SaaS and cloud workflows. The broader software space lagged again today, with the iShares GS Software ETF finishing 2.6% lower.

Elsewhere, solid gains in Amazon (AMZN 238.38, +4.73, +2.02%) and Tesla (TSLA 349.00, +3.38, +0.98%) helped the consumer discretionary sector (+0.6%) finish near the top of the leaderboard.

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 0.4% higher, contributing to the outperformance of the market-weighted S&P 500 (-0.1%) relative to the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-0.8%).

The materials (+0.6%) and real estate (+0.2%) sectors also captured gains, while the other seven S&P 500 sectors finished lower.

The defensive consumer staples (-1.4%) and health care sectors (-1.3%) were the worst performers, while the energy sector (-0.8%) lagged amid the stabilization in oil prices.

Meanwhile, the financials sector (-1.1%) also underperformed, but major banking names such as Goldman Sachs (GS 907.80, +4.08, +0.45%) and Citigroup (C 124.36, -0.56, -0.45%) were among the more resilient components ahead of their earnings releases next week.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-0.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.3%) charted modest losses.

Overall, AI-driven enthusiasm in semiconductor and mega-cap growth names helped offset broader weakness across most sectors, keeping the major averages relatively contained. Looking ahead, the market will remain highly attuned to any developments out of this weekend's U.S.-Iran talks, which could upend the progress stocks made this week.

U.S. Treasuries had a modestly lower showing on Friday, giving back a chunk of their midweek gains. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.80% (-3 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points to 4.32% (-3 basis points this week). 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +6.6% YTD
• Russell 2000: +6.0% YTD
• DJIA: -0.3% YTD
• S&P 500: -0.4% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -1.5% YTD

 Reviewing today's data:

• March CPI 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%); Prior 0.3%, March Core CPI 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.2%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that headline inflation was driven by the index for energy, which rose 10.9% in March, and although core inflation was seemingly subdued in March, the concern is that the energy price shock will bleed through more to core inflation in April.
• February Factory Orders 0.0% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior was revised to 0.0% from 0.1%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that factory orders weren't as flat as the headline suggests. On the contrary, they were quite strong when the volatile transportation component was excluded.
• April Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim 47.6 (Briefing.com consensus 52.0); Prior 53.3
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the fallout from the Iran conflict was the driver of the big drop in sentiment and big rise in year-ahead inflation expectations in April (note: nearly all responses to the survey were captured before the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7).
• The Treasury Department reported a $164.1 billion deficit for March (Briefing.com consensus -$160.0 bln), which was a bit wider than the $160.5 billion deficit reported for March 2025. Receipts totaled $385.0 billion, while outlays reached $549.0 billion.
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that net interest costs hit nearly $100 billion in March, trailing only Social Security payments as the government's largest outlay.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to trade in a mostly lower fashion near their unchanged levels as this week's action draws to a close.

The financials sector (-1.0%) is a laggard today, though major banking names such as Goldman Sachs (GS 906.61, +2.89, +0.32%), Citigroup (C 124.89, -0.03, -0.02%), and Wells Fargo (WFC 85.76, -0.26, -0.30%) are among the relative outperformers, all of which are set to report their earnings next week.

Netflix (NFLX 102.60, +0.55, +0.54%) will also report next Thursday after the close, and is one of just a few names that trade higher in the communication services sector (-0.4%).

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%), and DJIA (-0.5%) are little changed from previous levels as the market enters the final hour of the session.

Strength at the sector level has narrowed, with only the information technology (+0.8%), materials (+0.7%), and consumer discretionary (+0.3%) sectors remaining in positive territory.

However, strength across the market's largest names helps prevent further losses at the index level. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF is up 0.3%, helping the market-weighted S&P 500 (-0.1%) outperform the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-0.7%).

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.10%) is in second place on Friday afternoon, little changed following the release of the Treasury's March budget from the bottom of the hour.

The Treasury Budget for March showed a deficit of $164.1 billion compared to a deficit of $160.5 billion in the same period a year ago.

The March deficit resulted from outlays ($549.0 billion) exceeding receipts ($384.9 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted so the March deficit cannot be compared to the February deficit of $307.5 bln.

Overall, the March U.S. budget deficit widened modestly from a year earlier to $164 bln, as higher receipts were more than offset by rising outlays, with tax policy changes driving a sharp increase in refunds and boosting spending pressures alongside higher farm aid payments. Receipts rose 5% while outlays increased 4%, though calendar-adjusted figures would have shown a larger $250 bln deficit, up 4% year over year, and customs duty collections softened to $22.2 bln following the Supreme Court's annulment of Trump-era global tariffs.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major average are still split this afternoon, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) still the only average in the green.

Gold futures settled $30.60 lower (-0.7%) at $4,787.40/oz, on Friday as traders took profits after a strong rally, with a firmer dollar and slightly higher real yields also weighing on prices. The weekly gain of about +2.3% was driven by safe-haven demand tied to geopolitical tensions and expectations of Fed easing, though positioning shifted ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down -0.1% to $98.71.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.63%) is in last place on Friday afternoon, down 304 points.

A look inside the DJIA shows that Salesforce (CRM 165.48, -5.37, -3.14%), Nike (NKE 42.76, -1.24, -2.82%), and IBM (IBM 231.93, -5.25, -2.21%) are underperforming.

Meanwhile, NVIDIA (NVDA 188.23, +4.32, +2.35%) is atop the standings.

The DJIA is now +2.96% higher week-to-date.

Also, at the top of the hour, Baker Hughes (BKR 62.83, -0.59, -0.93%) announced a weekly U.S. rotary rig count of 545, -3 w/w and -38 yr/yr.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%), and DJIA (-0.6%) have spent the first half of today's session trading in a relatively tight range near their unchanged levels.

It is worth noting that the S&P 500 moved into negative territory following a New York Post interview with President Trump in which he said the U.S. military is preparing to resume strikes on Iran if peace talks fail this weekend. However, geopolitical headlines have been relatively quiet compared to recent sessions as the U.S. and Iran prepare for talks, with crude oil holding around the $98 per barrel mark.

Today's economic data reinforced the muted geopolitical disposition, as the headline March CPI reading (0.9%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.7%) came in hotter-than-expected due to the surge in energy prices, while the core reading (0.2%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) was better than feared. Additionally, the preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April fell to 47.6 (Briefing.com consensus: 52.0), though the market had a muted response to the report as nearly all responses to the survey were captured before the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7.

Strength is mixed in the broader market, but the top-weighted information technology sector (+0.7%) holds the widest gain, which helps prevent further losses at the index level. Semiconductor stocks are seeing an extension of recent strength, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 2.3%.

Part of that enthusiasm is attributed to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 372.75, +7.26, +1.99%) reporting upside Q1 revenues, which has resulted in solid gains across large chipmakers such as NVIDIA (NVDA 188.43, +4.52, +2.46%) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 245.14, +8.50, +3.59%). Super Micro Computer (SMCI 25.22, +2.00, +8.62%) and Coherent (COHR 308.68, +24.51, +8.63%) trade even higher and are among the top-performing S&P 500 components.

Once again, those gains seemingly come at the expense of software names, with the iShares GS Software ETF down 3.0%. In particular, Akamai Tech (AKAM 93.39, -16.22, -14.80%) is the worst-performing S&P 500 component as investors react to concerns sparked by Anthropic's launch of its Managed Agents platform, which is intensifying fears around AI-driven disruption of traditional SaaS and cloud workflows.

Gains are more modest elsewhere as the materials sector (+0.5%) is the only other S&P 500 sector to hold a gain of 0.5% or wider.

Meanwhile, the defensive consumer staples (-1.3%) and health care (-1.1%) sectors lag, while the financials sector (-1.2%) holds a similar loss as insurer names underperform and the energy sector (-1.0%) trades lower amid the stabilization in oil prices.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-0.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.4%) hold modest losses.

Overall, the market is holding in a narrow range as solid semiconductor strength helps offset weakness in cyclicals and defensives, keeping the major averages little changed. With geopolitical developments in a holding pattern and inflation data largely in line at the core level, investors appear content to await further clarity from this weekend's U.S.-Iran talks.

Reviewing today's data:

• March CPI 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%); Prior 0.3%, March Core CPI 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.2%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that headline inflation was driven by the index for energy, which rose 10.9% in March, and although core inflation was seemingly subdued in March, the concern is that the energy price shock will bleed through more to core inflation in April.
• February Factory Orders 0.0% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior was revised to 0.0% from 0.1%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that factory orders weren't as flat as the headline suggests. On the contrary, they were quite strong when the volatile transportation component was excluded.
• April Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim 47.6 (Briefing.com consensus 52.0); Prior 53.3
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the fallout from the Iran conflict was the driver of the big drop in sentiment and big rise in year-ahead inflation expectations in April (note: nearly all responses to the survey were captured before the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7).

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to trade in a tight range near their unchanged levels.

The defensive consumer staples (-1.3%) and health care (-1.0%) sectors are among today's weakest performers, with both sectors facing pressure across the majority of their components.

However, Constellation Brands (STZ 167.36, +4.30, +2.63%) continues to be a standout after advancing 8.5% yesterday in reaction to its earnings report.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%), and DJIA (-0.5%) now lean mostly lower at midday.

The modest retreat follows a New York Post report that President Trump said the U.S. military is preparing to resume strikes on Iran if peace talks fail this weekend.

Elsewhere, CoreWeave (CRWV 102.93, +10.93, +11.88%) is surging higher after announcing a multi-year agreement with Anthropic to support the development and training of its Claude family of AI models, marking another major demand signal for CRWV's rapidly scaling GPU cloud platform. The announcement also comes alongside an expanded partnership with Meta Platforms (META 625.42, -2.97, -0.47%) worth roughly $21 billion, helping diversify CRWV's customer base beyond heavy reliance on Microsoft (MSFT 370.83, -2.24, -0.60%), which previously accounted for nearly 67% of revenue.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%), and DJIA (-0.3%) sit mixed just before midday amid a quiet session that has been relatively devoid of recent geopolitical volatility.

The tenuous two-week ceasefire appears to be holding as the U.S. and Iran prepare for negotiations this weekend. On a similar note, the headline March CPI (0.9%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.7%) came in hotter than expected, though the Core CPI reading (0.2%; Briefing.com consensus:0.3%), which excludes food and energy, was better than feared, helping to keep the market's reaction tame.

While geopolitical developments remain muted for the time being, there is some lingering enthusiasm across the AI trade today as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 375.17, +9.68, +2.65%) reported strong upside Q1 revenues. Names such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 247.28, +10.64, +4.50%) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI 24.74, +1.52, +6.55%) are sharply higher as a result, boosting the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+3.0%) which has extended its week-to-date gain past 14%.

The information technology sector (+1.3%) is the best-performing S&P 500 sector as a result, with semiconductor strength outweighing weakness across software names that pushes the iShares GS Software ETF 2.9% lower.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain little changed from previous levels.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 375.66, +10.17, +2.78%) is rallying after reporting strong, upside 1Q26 revenue of NT$1,134.1 billion (+35.1% year-over-year), reflecting continued robust demand tied to AI infrastructure and High Performance Computing (HPC) chips, with growth led by sustained strength in advanced node technologies.

The company's strong 1Q26 revenue reinforces the view that AI is the dominant force driving the current semiconductor upcycle, with demand for advanced nodes outpacing broader industry trends. The results serve as a bullish read-through for key customers like NVIDIA (NVDA 188.92, +5.01, +2.72%) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 248.66, +12.02, +5.08%), signaling that AI infrastructure spending remains robust and likely still in the early innings of expansion.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index is maintaining its solid early gain, currently up 2.6%.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%), and DJIA (-0.2%) continue to sit mixed following several economic data releases.

The preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April fell to 47.6 (Briefing.com consensus: 52.0) from the final reading of 53.3 for March. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 52.2.

The key takeaway from the report is that the fallout from the Iran conflict was the driver of the big drop in sentiment and big rise in year-ahead inflation expectations in April (note: nearly all responses to the survey were captured before the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7).

Factory orders were flat month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus: 0.5%) following a downwardly revised unchanged reading (from 0.1%) in January. Excluding transportation, factory orders increased 1.2% after increasing 0.5% in January. Shipments of manufactured goods surged 1.4% after increasing 0.7% in January.

The key takeaway from the report is that factory orders weren't as flat as the headline suggests. On the contrary, they were quite strong when the volatile transportation component was excluded.

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks are off to a somewhat quiet start to the final session of the week, with the S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%), and DJIA (-0.3%) sitting mostly higher amid mixed strength in the broader market.

Geopolitical headlines are quieter this morning ahead of weekend discussions between the U.S. and Iran, keeping oil prices tame near the $98 per barrel mark.

The top-weighted information technology sector (+0.6%) contributes to the outperformance of the Nasdaq Composite as semiconductor names see an extension of recent strength, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 2.7%. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 376.98, +11.49, +3.14%) reported March and Q1 revenues above consensus, while select chipmakers such as Super Micro Computer (SMCI 24.96, +1.74, +7.49%), Broadcom (AVGO 370.47, +15.56, +4.38%), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 246.81, +10.17, +4.30%) occupy some of the top spots on the S&P 500 leaderboard.

Similar to yesterday's session, software names such as ServiceNow (NOW 83.75, -6.06, -6.75%) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW 155.04, -11.96, -7.16%) occupy the bottom spots, sending the iShares GS Software ETF 2.8% lower.

The materials sector (+0.9%) holds a similar gain while gains elsewhere are limited to 0.5% or narrower. Losses are also relatively modest with the exception of the financials sector (-1.2%), which faces pressure across nearly all of its components and particular weakness in insurance names such as Aon (AON 315.88, -9.52, -2.93%) and asset managers such as Ares Management (ARES 101.52, -3.28, -3.13%).

Just released, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for April fell to 47.6 (Briefing.com consensus: 52.0) from the final March reading of 53.3.

Factory orders were flat month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) following a downwardly revised flat reading (from 0.1%) in January. 

Equity futures continue to point to a slightly higher opening as the market reacts to the March CPI report while waiting for further updates on the geopolitical front.

Total CPI was up 0.9% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus: 0.7%) following a 0.3% increase in February. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) following a 0.2% increase in February.

With these changes, total CPI was up 3.3% year-over-year, versus 2.4% in February, and core CPI was up 2.6% year-over-year, versus 2.5% in February.

The key takeaway from the report is that headline inflation was driven by the index for energy, which rose 10.9% in March, and although core inflation was seemingly subdued in March, the concern is that the energy price shock will bleed through more to core inflation in April.

The S&P 500 futures currently trade seven points above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a solid finish to the week, encouraged by a lack of reports about additional missile strikes in the Middle East. China's CPI deflated again in March while PPI came in above zero for the first time since late 2022. The Bank of Korea left its policy rate at 2.50%, as expected, warning about the risk of higher prices and lower growth resulting from the U.S.-Iran conflict.

• In economic data:
  • China's March CPI -0.7% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 1.0%); 1.0% yr/yr (expected 1.2%; last 1.3%). March PPI 0.5% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -0.9%)
  • Japan's March PPI 0.8% m/m (expected 0.9%; last 0.1%); 2.6% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last 2.1%). March Bank Lending 4.8% yr/yr (expected 4.4%; last 4.5%)
  • Australia's February Building Approvals 29.7% m/m, as expected (last -7.2%); 14.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 15.7%). February Private House Approvals 0.2% m/m, as expected (last 1.1%)
  • New Zealand's March Business PMI 53.2 (last 54.8)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +1.8% 
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.6%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +0.5%
• India's Sensex: +1.2%
• South Korea's Kospi: +1.4%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%

Major European indices are seeking a higher finish to the week. Germany's economy minister voiced opposition to taxing surplus profits of energy companies but also spoke in favor of measures to offset the impact of high energy prices for consumers. Hungary will hold a parliamentary election on Sunday with polls pointing to a tight race.

• In economic data:
  • Germany's March CPI 1.1% m/m, as expected (last 0.2%); 2.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.9%)
  • Italy's February Industrial Production 0.1% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.6%); 0.5% yr/yr, as expected (last -0.6%)
  • Swiss March SECO Consumer Climate -43 (expected -32; last -30)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.7%
• Germany's DAX: +1.0% 
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.4%
• France's CAC 40: +0.6%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.7%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.7%

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 11 points above fair value.

Just released, total CPI increased 0.9% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%) from a prior increase of 0.3%.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a prior increase of 0.2%.

Equity futures point to a flattish opening this morning after the major averages notched decent gains in yesterday's session following further optimistic developments on the geopolitical front.

Bloomberg reports that while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to tanker traffic, other aspects of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran appear to be holding ahead of discussions this weekend. WTI crude oil is up slightly this morning, trading around the $ 98-per-barrel mark.

The market faces a key test this morning in the form of the March CPI Report (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%), which will be the first real test of whether inflation is broadening beyond energy into the core basket. Analysts are expecting a hotter headline reading due to the recent surge in energy prices, making the core reading (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), which excludes food and energy, an important gauge of underlying inflation trends and a key determinant of the Fed's policy outlook going forward.

In corporate news:

• Anthropic is mulling artificial intelligence chips, according to Reuters
• Tesla (TSLA 345.50, -0.07, -0.0%) China sales fell 16% in Q1, according to Electrek.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 373.80, +8.31, +2.3%) reported that March and Q1 revenues both came in above consensus.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a solid finish to the week, encouraged by a lack of reports about additional missile strikes in the Middle East. Japan's Nikkei: +1.8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.6%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.5%, India's Sensex: +1.2%, South Korea's Kospi: +1.4%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%.

In news:

• China's CPI deflated again in March while PPI came in above zero for the first time since late 2022.
• The Bank of Korea left its policy rate at 2.50%, as expected, warning about the risk of higher prices and lower growth resulting from the U.S.-Iran conflict.

In economic data:

• China's March CPI -0.7% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 1.0%); 1.0% yr/yr (expected 1.2%; last 1.3%). March PPI 0.5% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -0.9%)
• Japan's March PPI 0.8% m/m (expected 0.9%; last 0.1%); 2.6% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last 2.1%). March Bank Lending 4.8% yr/yr (expected 4.4%; last 4.5%)
• Australia's February Building Approvals 29.7% m/m, as expected (last -7.2%); 14.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 15.7%). February Private House Approvals 0.2% m/m, as expected (last 1.1%)
• New Zealand's March Business PMI 53.2 (last 54.8)

Major European indices are seeking a higher finish to the week. STOXX Europe 600: +0.7%, Germany's DAX: +0.9%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.3%, France's CAC 40: +0.6%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.7%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.6%.

In news:

• Germany's economy minister voiced opposition to taxing surplus profits of energy companies but also spoke in favor of measures to offset the impact of high energy prices for consumers.
• Hungary will hold a parliamentary election on Sunday with polls pointing to a tight race.

In economic data:

• Germany's March CPI 1.1% m/m, as expected (last 0.2%); 2.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.9%)
• Italy's February Industrial Production 0.1% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.6%); 0.5% yr/yr, as expected (last -0.6%)
• Swiss March SECO Consumer Climate -43 (expected -32; last -30)

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%), and DJIA (+0.6%) saw a meaningful extension of yesterday's gains after shaking off some early apprehension tied to lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

The major averages spent most of the morning in modestly negative territory as reports indicated that the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed to tanker traffic and that Israel continued strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, prompting threats from Iran to abandon the fragile two-week ceasefire reached Tuesday night.

Stocks found their footing shortly before midday following a Reuters report that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directed his aides to open direct negotiations with Lebanon. Those talks are set to begin next week, and Israel has stated that it will continue to launch strikes against Hezbollah in the interim, which could lead to further volatility.

Still, the headline prompted a decisive upward move in equities and a considerable drop in oil prices. Crude oil futures settled today's session $3.49 higher (+3.7%) at $97.89 per barrel, well off session highs that saw WTI crude eclipse the $102 per barrel mark.

The energy sector (-1.2%) ceded its earlier gains in turn, finishing firmly lower. On an unrelated note, Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL 377.97, -70.31, -15.68%) was the worst-performing S&P 500 component today after the sudden death of Murray Stahl, the company's largest shareholder and longtime board member.

The health care sector (-0.2%) was the only other S&P 500 sector to close without a gain, as the other nine sectors moved higher.

After what felt like a weeks-long drought in meaningful corporate news, the recent improvement in the geopolitical backdrop has helped reignite momentum in the AI trade, with several notable headlines involving hyperscalers emerging today.

The consumer discretionary sector (+2.5%) led the advance, supported by a sharp gain in Amazon (AMZN 233.65, +12.40, +5.60%) after CEO Andy Jassy released his annual shareholder letter, reiterating the company's willingness to make significant AI investments. The company also announced plans to invest $25 billion in data centers in Mississippi.

Meta Platforms (META 628.39, +15.97, +2.61%) also captured a solid gain after announcing an expansion of its $21 billion AI infrastructure deal with CoreWeave (CRWV 92.00, +3.10, +3.49%).

Some of those gains also made their way downstream, as stocks set to benefit from the AI data center buildout cycle put up solid performances. Corning (GLW 169.80, +4.70, +2.85%), Caterpillar (CAT 787.07, +15.49, +2.01%), and GE Vernova (GEV 968.02, +31.95, +3.41%) all traded to fresh record highs today, with the latter two names helping the industrials sector (+1.0%) notch a solid gain.

Meanwhile, the information technology (+0.4%) notched a more modest gain. There was some renewed AI enthusiasm, with Sandisk (SNDK 851.57, +70.67, +9.05%) posting another monster gain, while large chip makers such as NVIDIA (NVDA 183.94, +1.86, +1.02%) and Intel (INTC 61.72, +2.77, +4.70%) helped push the PHLX Semiconductor Index 2.1% higher.

However, those gains came at the expense of software stocks such as ServiceNow (NOW 89.81, -7.66, -7.86%) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR 130.54, -10.22, -7.26%), which pushed the iShares GS Software ETF -3.9% lower.

Elsewhere, the consumer staples (+0.9%) and utilities (+0.8%) sectors opened to solid gains amid the geopolitical uncertainty, and maintained the bulk of the gains throughout the session. Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.6%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.3%) followed a similar trajectory to the major averages.

All told, today's session marked another constructive step forward for equities, as improving geopolitical conditions provided a supportive backdrop for a continued rebound in the broader market while enthusiasm for the AI trade began to return. The market will face an important test tomorrow in the form of the March CPI report (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), which will be the first real test of whether inflation is broadening beyond energy into the core basket.

U.S. Treasuries endured some Thursday volatility that produced a modest loss in the long bond while 5s and shorter tenors eked out slim gains. Today's $22 billion 30-year bond reopening was met with decent, but unimpressive demand. The 2-year note yield settled down one basis point at 3.78%, and the 10-year note yield finished unchanged at 4.29%. 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +6.9% YTD
• Russell 2000: +6.2% YTD
• DJIA: +0.3% YTD
• S&P 500: -0.3% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -1.8% YTD

 Reviewing today's data:

• February Personal Income -0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior 0.4%, February Personal Spending 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%); Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.4%, February PCE Prices 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior 0.3%, February PCE Prices - Core 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.4%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it reflects sticky inflation pressure before the Iran war started, so it won't sway the Fed from sticking with a wait-and-see policy stance.
• Weekly Initial Claims 219K (Briefing.com consensus 215K); Prior was revised to 203K from 202K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.794 mln; Prior was revised to 1.832 mln from 1.841 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report is that continuing claims hit their lowest level since May 11, 2024.
• Q4 GDP - Third Estimate 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%); Prior 0.7%, Q4 GDP Deflator - Third Estimate 3.7% (Briefing.com consensus 3.8%); Prior 3.8%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it suggests the economy closed last year on a sluggish note; however, it wasn't quite as soft as it appears when taking into account that real final sales to private domestic purchasers were up 1.8%.
• February Wholesale Inventories 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%); Prior -0.3%