[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.2%), and DJIA (+0.5%) saw a meaningful extension of yesterday's rally as the potential for a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran culminated in another session of broad gains. The DJIA traded above its 200-day moving average (46,698) but failed to close above the key technical level.

Equity futures signaled a higher opening following a Bloomberg report that President Trump told aides that the U.S. will withdraw from the conflict in two to three weeks, even if a deal has not been struck. However, that report was followed by a Truth Social post in which the president threatened continued bombing of Iran's infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened.

Today's session progressed in a similar fashion in the sense that it remains unclear exactly where negotiations stand, or how close an off-ramp to the conflict truly is. Reuters reported that Iran denied requesting a ceasefire, while an Israeli report that negotiations are "not progressing in a positive way" saw the major averages give back a considerable chunk of their early gains during the early afternoon hours.

The market now awaits an address from President Trump tonight at 9:00 p.m. ET, in which Politico reported the president will likely announce a victory over Iran and state intentions to wind down military operations, while pressuring NATO allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

While the Iran situation continues to drive volatility, stocks steadily climbed from their intraday lows to end the session firmly higher. Oil retreated again today, which added support. Crude oil futures settled today's session $1.01 lower (-1.0%) at $100.14 per barrel, and continued to move lower after the session close.

Unsurprisingly, the energy sector (-3.9%) faced a sharp retreat, with all of its components trading lower.

The consumer staples sector (-0.6%) also finished lower as investors rotated into more growth-oriented holdings, while mixed strength in the financials sector saw it chart a flat finish.

Meanwhile, the broader market finished higher as the other S&P 500 sectors covered enough ground to weather the intraday slide. Mega-cap stocks were a point of strength again today, sending the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF 1.2% higher.

That helped the communication services sector (+1.6%) finish near the top of the leaderboard again as Alphabet (GOOG 294.90, +8.04, +2.80%) and Meta Platforms (META 579.23, +7.10, +1.24%) continue to rebound from pronounced weakness after a jury found the companies liable in a social-media addiction case last week.

The information technology sector (+1.1%) was another top-mover, with sustained strength across semiconductor names outweighing weakness across software stocks that saw Microsoft (MSFT 369.37, -0.80, -0.22%) finish as the only "magnificent seven" name that failed to chart a gain.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 2.8% higher, with memory storage names such as Western Digital (WDC 297.73, +27.24, +10.07%) and Micron (MU 367.85, +30.01, +8.88%) among the top-performing S&P 500 components.

Meanwhile, NIKE (NKE 44.63, -8.19, -15.51%) was the index's worst performer after topping earnings estimates, but weak guidance and admission that the company's turnaround efforts are taking longer than expected kept investors from buying the dip. Nike's underperformance did little to weigh down the consumer discretionary sector (+0.9%), which was supported by relatively broad strength and solid mega-cap leadership of its own.

In other corporate news, Eli Lilly (LLY 954.28, +34.51, +3.75%) made a sharp move higher after confirming the FDA approved its new weight-loss drug Foundayo.

Altogether, the stock market started the second quarter on a higher note, especially given the sharp losses that were realized in March. Today's strength was largely driven by geopolitical optimism, though the U.S. and Iran still appear to be far apart on negotiations. Attention now turns to President Trump's address tonight for further clarity on the path forward for U.S. involvement in the conflict and any potential timeline for de-escalation.

As a reminder, tomorrow will be the final session of the week, as the stock market will be closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday.

U.S. Treasuries endured some volatility to begin April, though the movement unfolded inside a narrow range, leaving the market with slim losses after three days of gains in most tenors. The 2-year note yield finished unchanged at 3.80%, and the 10-year note yield settled up one basis point to 4.32%. 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +3.0% YTD
• Russell 2000: +1.2% YTD
• DJIA: -3.1% YTD
• S&P 500: -4.0% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -6.0% YTD

 Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -10.4%; Prior -10.5%
• March ADP Employment Change 62K (Briefing.com consensus 42K); Prior was revised to 66K from 63K
• February Retail Sales 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior was revised to -0.1% from -0.2%, February Retail Sales, ex-auto 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.0%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it revealed solid spending activity across most kinds of retail businesses. The strength of the report is apt to be diluted, however, by the recognition that it preceded the hefty increase in gasoline prices and the sharp decline in stock prices in March that are expected to keep discretionary spending in check.
• March S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI - Final 52.3; Prior 52.4
• March ISM Manufacturing Index 52.7% (Briefing.com consensus 52.3%); Prior 52.4%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it conveys an ongoing expansion in manufacturing activity coupled with an ongoing increase in prices for raw materials that works against the notion of the Fed cutting rates soon.
• January Business Inventories -0.1%; Prior was revised to 0.0% from 0.1%

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.8%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.2%), and DJIA (+0.6%) are modestly improved from their intraday lows as the market enters the final half hour of the session. Notably, the DJIA is back below its 200-day moving average (46,698).

Ahead of President Trump's address to the nation tonight, the White House has released a list of objectives for operations in Iran, which center around destroying its nuclear capabilities and decimating its missile stockpile.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%), and DJIA (+0.5%) are trading in a more stable range after an intraday slide that leaves them with around half of their earlier gains.

The market eagerly awaits more color on today's geopolitical developments after an Israeli source said that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are not progressing positively.

On a related note, crude oil futures settled today's session $1.01 lower (-1.0%) at $100.14 per barrel after spending time below the $100 per barrel mark.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.5%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%), and DJIA (+0.4%) have given back a considerable chunk of their earlier gains following a report from an Israeli source that ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are not progressing in a positive way.

Additionally, Axios reporter Barak Ravid wrote on X that Mehdi Tabatabai, Iranian President's Pezeshkian's deputy spokesman, said that "the text of an important letter by Pezeshkian addressed to the American people will be released within the next few hours."

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+1.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.6%), and DJIA (+0.9%) are little changed from their previous levels this afternoon.

While the DJIA holds the narrowest gain, it is the first index to reclaim its 200-day moving average today (46,698).

Boeing (BA 209.68, +10.64, +5.35%) holds the widest gain in the index, while NIKE (NKE 45.28, -7.54, -14.27%) plummets after issuing weak guidance and Chevron (CVX 195.69, -11.21, -5.42%) retreats sharply as the broader energy sector (-4.5%) pulls back amid a lower price of oil today.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to trade in a steady range in the early afternoon hours.

Shake Shack (SHAK 91.76, +3.29, +3.72%) is moving higher after announcing a technology initiative and plans to launch its first loyalty platform. The company also reaffirmed its Q1 and FY26 guidance. Shake Shack's Project Catalyst underscores a strategic pivot toward building a more tech-enabled operating model as the chain eyes significant unit expansion.

Notably, the introduction of a first-ever loyalty platform could be a meaningful driver of traffic and frequency over time, helping Shake Shack better compete with peers that already leverage loyalty programs. While this was good news for the company, the burger chain has been struggling given its position in the premium fast-casual category, which becomes a problem when consumers pull back on spend.

In other corporate news, RH (RH 109.10, -30.72, -21.97%) is under pressure after reporting its Q4 (Jan) results last night, missing both EPS and revenue expectations by a wide margin. Its guidance did little to improve sentiment, with Q1 revenue of $781-798 million and FY27 revenue of $3.58-3.72 billion, both below expectations, as RH continues to navigate a soft housing backdrop and tariff-related sourcing disruption.

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market is starting the second quarter on a higher note, with optimism around a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran culminating in a second consecutive day of broad gains and retreating oil prices.

The S&P 500 (+1.2%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.8%), and DJIA (+1.0%) are firmly higher, with the DJIA now sitting a touch above its 200-day moving average of 46,698.

Potential ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran continue to drive headlines today. Reuters reported that Iran has denied claims it requested a ceasefire, though that has done little to temper enthusiasm, as both sides continue to strike a more conciliatory tone this week. In particular, Bloomberg reported that President Trump told aides that the U.S. will withdraw from the conflict in two to three weeks, even if a deal has not been struck.

There are also some potentially favorable headlines surrounding a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Financial Times reported that the UK will hold talks with 35 other nations regarding a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while The Wall Street Journal reported that the United Arab Emirates seeks to pressure Iran to reopen the strait. Crude oil is currently down $1.34 (-1.3%) to $100.04 per barrel, resulting in a sharp pullback in the energy sector (-4.1%).

The market will look for more clarity on the geopolitical front tonight as President Trump is set to give an address at 9:00 p.m. ET.

For the time being, stocks are enjoying another session of broad gains. Mega-cap stocks are seeing an extension of yesterday's rally, supporting gains at the index level. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF is up 1.7% as all of the "magnificent seven" stocks trade higher.

Alphabet (GOOG 297.36, +10.50, +3.66%) and Meta Platforms (META 589.93, +17.80, +3.11%) are standouts among the group, pushing the communication services sector (+2.5%) to the top of the sector leaderboard as the companies continue to rebound from a poor showing last week.

The top-weighted information technology sector (+1.6%) also sports a solid gain, supported by an extension of yesterday's semiconductor rally. The PHLX Semiconductor Index is up 3.8%, with particular strength across memory storage names such as Micron (MU 376.59, +38.75, +11.47%) and Western Digital (WDC 297.56, +27.07, +10.01%).

Mega-cap leadership and broad gains throughout the consumer discretionary sector (+1.5%) seat it with a similar gain, offsetting a sharp retreat in NIKE (NKE 45.40, -7.42, -14.06%) after the company topped earnings estimates but issued weak guidance.

The industrials sector (+2.2%) is another outperformer as electrical component and engineering names continue to rebound, while the lower price of oil supports gains across airline stocks.

Looking at the more defensive pockets of the market, the utilities sector (-0.9%) is a laggard today, while the consumer staples sector (+0.5%) holds one of the narrowest gains across the eleven S&P 500 sectors. The health care sector (+1.2%), however, sports a nice gain as Eli Lilly (LLY 966.34, +46.58, +5.06%) trades sharply higher following confirmation that the FDA approved its new weight-loss drug, Foundayo.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+1.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.4%) trade firmly higher as the market displays a clear risk-on disposition today.

Even so, today's advance remains heavily tethered to geopolitical headlines, leaving the market vulnerable to potential swings in sentiment. For now, though, the combination of falling oil prices and broad participation is helping underpin a constructive start to the second quarter.

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -10.4%; Prior -10.5%
• March ADP Employment Change 62K (Briefing.com consensus 42K); Prior was revised to 66K from 63K
• February Retail Sales 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior was revised to -0.1% from -0.2%, February Retail Sales, ex-auto 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.0%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it revealed solid spending activity across most kinds of retail businesses. The strength of the report is apt to be diluted, however, by the recognition that it preceded the hefty increase in gasoline prices and the sharp decline in stock prices in March that are expected to keep discretionary spending in check.
• March S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI - Final 52.3; Prior 52.4
• March ISM Manufacturing Index 52.7% (Briefing.com consensus 52.3%); Prior 52.4%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it conveys an ongoing expansion in manufacturing activity coupled with an ongoing increase in prices for raw materials that works against the notion of the Fed cutting rates soon.
• January Business Inventories -0.1%; Prior was revised to 0.0% from 0.1%

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+1.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.7%), and DJIA (+0.8%) trade in a stable range shortly after midday.

Bloomberg reports that SpaceX has filed an IPO confidentially, which could be valued at over $1.75 trillion.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages are steadily charting a course of session highs at midday.

While the defensive utilities (-0.9%) and consumer staples (+0.2%) sectors are relative underperformers amid today's risk-on disposition, the health care sector (+1.2%) is keeping pace with the broader market.

The sector's largest components, Eli Lilly (LLY 969.82, +50.05, +5.44%) recently made a sharp move higher after confirming the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Foundayo for adults with obesity, or overweight with weight-related medical problems. Adults taking Foundayo lost an average of 27 pounds on the highest dose in the ATTAIN-1 clinical trial. Foundayo, Lilly's second FDA-approved obesity medicine, will be available via LillyDirect with free home delivery, starting at $25 per month with commercial coverage and $149 for self-pay.

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market is riding yesterday's wave of optimism around a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran in the first session of the second quarter, with the S&P 500 (+1.0%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.5%), and DJIA (+0.9%) supported by broad strength and lower oil prices.

The early strength has the DJIA back above its 200-day moving average (46,698), while the S&P 500 is now less than 1.0% below its own 200-day moving average of 6,642.

The state of negotiations in Iran remains somewhat unclear, with U.S. officials claiming that negotiations are taking place in exchange for the Strait of Hormuz reopening, while Reuters reports that Iran said claims that it requested a ceasefire are false.

Still, President Trump's earlier comments that the U.S. could end its military operations in the next two to three weeks have left the market hopeful that an end to the conflict could be near. Crude oil is currently down $1.25 (-1.2%) to $100.16, which is above its lowest levels of the morning.

The energy sector (-3.8%) still faces a sharp pullback today. The consumer staples sector (-0.7%) and the utilities sector (flat) are also missing out on gains as the market sees an extension of yesterday's risk-on rally.

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF is up 1.3%, supporting gains at the index level as the market's weightiest components continue to rebound from recent lows.

Similar to yesterday's session, semiconductor names are among the outperformers, with memory storage stocks such as Western Digital (WDC 301.36, +30.87, +11.41%) and Micron (MU 372.20, +34.36, +10.17%) approaching double-digit gains. The PHLX Semiconductor Index is up 3.5%.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+1.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.4%) also outperform amid improvements to risk sentiment.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain firmly higher this morning, little changed from previous levels.

NIKE (NKE 45.40, -7.42, -14.06%) is under pressure following its Q3 (Feb) earnings report, as downside Q4 (May) guidance and cautious commentary overshadowed an otherwise better-than-expected quarter. The company continues to work through a multi-quarter turnaround, but acknowledged its recovery is taking longer than anticipated.

Nike reported upside results for Q3, but guided Q4 revenue down 2% to 4%, below expectations and reflecting ongoing operational challenges. Greater China revenue declined 10% yr/yr in Q3, with expectations for a steeper ~20% decline in Q4 as Nike continues aggressive marketplace cleanup efforts.

Nike's results underscore a company still firmly in the midst of a reset, with near-term headwinds intensifying before conditions improve. While management is taking the right steps-cleaning up inventory, refining distribution, and resetting key international markets-these efforts are weighing heavily on current performance and will take time to materialize into tangible growth. The deeper-than-expected decline projected for Greater China and continued weakness in Sportswear raise concerns about demand elasticity and brand momentum. Although Nike is targeting completion of its "Win Now" initiatives by year-end, the path to consistent growth remains uncertain.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.1%), and DJIA (+0.5%) are maintaining their solid opening gains amid broad participation this morning.

The energy sector (-3.9%), however, continues to plunge lower, though even with today's pullback, it remains the best-performing S&P 500 sector of 2026 by roughly 22%.

The ISM Manufacturing Index checked in at 52.7% for March (Briefing.com consensus: 52.3%), up from 52.4% in February. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the March figure suggests there was a slight acceleration in manufacturing activity versus the prior month.

The key takeaway from the report is that it conveys an ongoing expansion in manufacturing activity coupled with an ongoing increase in prices for raw materials that works against the notion of the Fed cutting rates soon.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%), and DJIA (+0.7%) are seeing a nice extension of yesterday's geopolitical-driven rally.

While the market awaits an address from President Trump at 9:00 p.m. ET for further clarity on a potential off-ramp to the conflict with Iran, oil prices are moving lower again today, which boosts sentiment. Currently, WTI crude is down $2.33 (-2.3%) to $99.05 per barrel.

Financial Times reported that the UK will hold talks with 35 other nations regarding a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The energy sector (-2.3%) is an early laggard again today, though strength is relatively broad elsewhere, with only the consumer staples sector (-1.0%) also facing pressure. 

Meanwhile, mega-cap and tech stocks are off to another solid start, pushing the communication services (+1.6%) and information technology (+1.2%) sectors near the top of the leaderboard. Semiconductor stocks in particular are mounting another solid advance, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 2.7%.

Elsewhere, the industrials sector (+2.1%) outperforms, with the lower price of oil supporting gains across airline names.

On the data front, the final reading of the March S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI contracted slightly to 52.3% from a previous reading of 52.4%.

The ISM Manufacturing Index checked in at 52.7% for March (Briefing.com consensus: 52.3%), up from 52.4% in February.

The stock market is on track for a higher opening, though equity futures are off their best levels of the morning.

President Trump wrote on Truth Social that the Iranian regime has asked for a ceasefire, adding, 'We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages.'

While talks of a ceasefire largely prompted yesterday's rally, President Trump's recent commentary marks a less conciliatory tone that suggests a decisive end to all hostilities is not yet imminent.

According to ADP, private sector employment increased by 62,000 jobs in March (Briefing.com consensus: 42,000) following an upwardly revised 66,000 (from 63,000) in February. That was split fairly evenly between the goods-producing and service-providing sectors; however, it was driven entirely by small businesses, which added 85,000 jobs.

Total retail sales jumped 0.6% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus: 0.5%) following an upwardly revised 0.1% decline (from -0.2%) in January. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) after being unchanged in January.

The key takeaway from the report is that it revealed solid spending activity across most kinds of retail businesses. The strength of the report is apt to be diluted, however, by the recognition that it preceded the hefty increase in gasoline prices and the sharp decline in stock prices in March that are expected to keep discretionary spending in check.

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 24 points above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began April on a firmly higher note with South Korea's Kospi (+8.4%) leading the way to the upside. The market drew some additional encouragement from President Trump's comments that U.S. forces may be withdrawn from Iran within the next couple weeks. South Korean officials said that there will be no disruptions to the supply of helium and ethylene gas through the first half of the year. March Manufacturing PMI readings from China, Japan, and South Korea remained in expansion while Australia's reading indicated a contraction due to a shortage of materials. The Bank of Japan will reduce its bond purchases by about 8% in Q2, which was expected.

• In economic data: 
  • China's March RatingDog Manufacturing PMI 50.8 (expected 51.6; last 52.1)
  • Japan's March Manufacturing PMI 51.6, as expected (last 51.4). Q1 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 17 (expected 16; last 16) and Large Non-Manufacturers Index 36 (expected 33; last 34). Q1 All Big Industry Capex 3.3% (last 12.6%) and All Small Industry Capex -8.1% (last 0.1%)
  • South Korea's flash March trade surplus $25.74 bln (expected surplus of $21.20 bln; last surplus of $15.38 bln). March Imports 13.2% yr/yr (expected 18.0%; last 7.5%) and Exports 48.3% yr/yr (expected 44.9%; last 28.7%). March Manufacturing PMI 52.6 (last 51.1)
  • Hong Kong's February Retail Sales 19.3% yr/yr (last 5.5%)
  • Singapore's Q1 URA Property Index 0.3% qtr/qtr (last 0.6%)
  • Australia's March Manufacturing PMI 49.8 (expected 50.1; last 51.0). Flash February Building Approvals 29.7% m/m (expected 5.8%; last -7.2%); 14.0% yr/yr (last -15.7%). February Private House Approvals 0.2% m/m (last 1.7%)
  • New Zealand's February Building Consents 2.7% m/m (last 2.0%)

---Equity Markets--- 

• Japan's Nikkei: +5.2%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.0%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +1.5%
• India's Sensex: +1.7%
• South Korea's Kospi: +8.4%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +2.3%

Major European indices trade in the green amid overall improvement in geopolitical sentiment. Most March Manufacturing PMI readings from the region's main economies remained in expansion despite the surging energy prices. Spain was an outlier, falling into contraction (48.7). European Central Bank policymaker Rehn said that the latest inflation reading was not a surprise and that a rate hike should not be seen as certain. Germany's economy minister urged a return to nuclear power.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's March Manufacturing PMI 51.6 (expected 51.4; last 50.8) and February Unemployment Rate 6.2% (expected 6.1%; last 6.1%)
  • Germany's March Manufacturing PMI 52.2 (expected 51.7; last 50.9)
  • U.K.'s March Manufacturing PMI 51.0 (expected 51.4; last 51.7)
  • Italy's March Manufacturing PMI 51.3 (expected 50.9; last 50.6). February Unemployment Rate 5.3% (expected 5.2%; last 5.2%)
  • France's March Manufacturing PMI 50.0 (expected 50.2; last 50.2)
  • Spain's March Manufacturing PMI 48.7 (expected 50.5; last 50.0)
  • Swiss February Retail Sales 0.9% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last -0.6%). March Manufacturing PMI 53.3 (expected 50.5; last 50.0)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +2.1%
• Germany's DAX: +2.6%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.7%
• France's CAC 40: +1.8%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +3.0%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +2.8%

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 39 points above fair value.

The ADP Employment Change Report saw private sector employment increase by 62K in March (Briefing.com consensus 42K), from an upwardly revised 66K increase in February (from 63K).

Total retail sales were up 0.6% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus: 0.5%) following an upwardly revised 0.1% decrease (from -0.2%) in January.

Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) after a flat reading in January.

Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning after stocks posted their best single-session gain since May 2025 in yesterday's action. The major averages captured gains of 2.5% or wider across the board amid reports that leaders from both the U.S. and Iran signaled a willingness to end the ongoing war.

Optimism surrounding a potential de-escalation has carried over to this morning, with Bloomberg reporting that President Trump estimates the U.S. will withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks, even if a deal has not yet been struck.

Crude oil is extending yesterday's move lower, currently down $2.76 (-2.7%) to $98.62 per barrel.

The retreat in oil prices is likely also due to a Wall Street Journal report that the United Arab Emirates is seeking to pressure Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, by force if necessary.

President Trump will address the nation on Iran this evening.

Today will also be somewhat busier on the economic data front, which will include the release of the February Retail Sales Report (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%; prior -0.2%) and the March ISM Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 52.3%; prior 52.4%).

The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended March 28 decreased 10.4%, from a prior increase of 10.5%.

In corporate news:

• OpenAI completed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, according to Bloomberg.
• Microsoft (MSFT 376.25, +6.08, +1.6%) is reportedly in discussions with Chevron (CVX 204.06, -2.84, -1.4%) and an investment fund for a power plant in Texas, according to Bloomberg.
• Nike (NKE 47.05, -5.77, -10.9%) beat EPS expectations by $0.06 and reported revenues in-line, but trades sharply lower in the pre-market after the company said on their earnings call that revenues are expected to be down low single-digits, with 'flattish' earnings over this period.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began April on a firmly higher note with South Korea's Kospi (+8.4%) leading the way to the upside. Japan's Nikkei: +5.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.0%, China's Shanghai Composite: +1.5%, India's Sensex: +1.7%, South Korea's Kospi: +8.4%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +2.3%.

In news:

• The market drew some additional encouragement from President Trump's comments that U.S. forces may be withdrawn from Iran within the next couple weeks.
• South Korean officials said that there will be no disruptions to the supply of helium and ethylene gas through the first half of the year.
• March Manufacturing PMI readings from China, Japan, and South Korea remained in expansion while Australia's reading indicated a contraction due to a shortage of materials.
• The Bank of Japan will reduce its bond purchases by about 8% in Q2, which was expected.

In economic data:

• China's March RatingDog Manufacturing PMI 50.8 (expected 51.6; last 52.1)
• Japan's March Manufacturing PMI 51.6, as expected (last 51.4). Q1 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 17 (expected 16; last 16) and Large Non-Manufacturers Index 36 (expected 33; last 34). Q1 All Big Industry Capex 3.3% (last 12.6%) and All Small Industry Capex -8.1% (last 0.1%)
• South Korea's flash March trade surplus $25.74 bln (expected surplus of $21.20 bln; last surplus of $15.38 bln). March Imports 13.2% yr/yr (expected 18.0%; last 7.5%) and Exports 48.3% yr/yr (expected 44.9%; last 28.7%). March Manufacturing PMI 52.6 (last 51.1)
• Hong Kong's February Retail Sales 19.3% yr/yr (last 5.5%)
• Singapore's Q1 URA Property Index 0.3% qtr/qtr (last 0.6%)
• Australia's March Manufacturing PMI 49.8 (expected 50.1; last 51.0). Flash February Building Approvals 29.7% m/m (expected 5.8%; last -7.2%); 14.0% yr/yr (last -15.7%). February Private House Approvals 0.2% m/m (last 1.7%)
• New Zealand's February Building Consents 2.7% m/m (last 2.0%)

Major European indices trade in the green amid overall improvement in geopolitical sentiment. STOXX Europe 600: +2.5%, Germany's DAX: +3.0%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +2.0%, France's CAC 40: +2.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +3.4%, Spain's IBEX 35: +3.2%.

In news:

• Most March Manufacturing PMI readings from the region's main economies remained in expansion despite the surging energy prices.
• Spain was an outlier, falling into contraction (48.7).
• European Central Bank policymaker Rehn said that the latest inflation reading was not a surprise and that a rate hike should not be seen as certain.
• Germany's economy minister urged a return to nuclear power.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's March Manufacturing PMI 51.6 (expected 51.4; last 50.8) and February Unemployment Rate 6.2% (expected 6.1%; last 6.1%)
• Germany's March Manufacturing PMI 52.2 (expected 51.7; last 50.9)
• U.K.'s March Manufacturing PMI 51.0 (expected 51.4; last 51.7)
• Italy's March Manufacturing PMI 51.3 (expected 50.9; last 50.6). February Unemployment Rate 5.3% (expected 5.2%; last 5.2%)
• France's March Manufacturing PMI 50.0 (expected 50.2; last 50.2)
• Spain's March Manufacturing PMI 48.7 (expected 50.5; last 50.0)
• Swiss February Retail Sales 0.9% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last -0.6%). March Manufacturing PMI 53.3 (expected 50.5; last 50.0)

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks rallied today as leaders from both the U.S. and Iran signaled a willingness to end the ongoing conflict that has sent energy prices soaring and stocks lower over the past month.

In the final session of March, the S&P 500 (+2.9%), Nasdaq Composite (+3.8%), and DJIA (+2.5%) took back a considerable chunk of previous weakness, ultimately ending March with losses ranging from 4.8% to 5.5%. The month-to-date figure is notable given that the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran on February 28, which was a Saturday, meaning the war in Iran has been at the forefront of the market's focus since the first opening bell of March.

Equity futures pointed to a higher opening this morning after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told aides he is willing to end U.S. military operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, as reopening it could extend the conflict beyond the 4- to 6-week timeline.

Out of the gate, stocks climbed in broad fashion, with solid mega-cap leadership supporting growth at the index level, unlike yesterday's session. Gains across the major averages doubled shortly after midday following a CNBC report that Iranian state media said the country's president spoke by phone with the European Council. Iran is reportedly 'prepared to end the war' with guarantees against further attacks, a call that has been confirmed by the European Council President.

In the wake of the reports, oil prices retreated modestly after a flattish morning, ultimately settling $1.77 lower (-1.7%) at $101.15 per barrel.

The energy sector (-1.1%) was a laggard as a result, while the utilities (-0.1%) and consumer staples (flat) sectors also went overlooked as the geopolitical optimism translated into a risk-on rally.

Tech and other growth-oriented sectors posted some of the strongest gains, with communication services (+4.4%) leading the sector leaderboard. Meta Platforms (META 572.13, +35.75, +6.67%) and Alphabet (GOOG 286.90, +13.76, +5.04%) extended their recent rebounds from last week's lows that followed news that the companies were found liable in a social media addiction trial.

The information technology sector (+4.2%) posted a similar gain as NVIDIA (NVDA 174.44, +9.28, +5.62%) and other semiconductor stocks rebounded nicely after a weak showing yesterday. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (+6.2%) reclaimed all of yesterday's losses and then some, and onsemi (ON 61.92, +6.26, +11.25%) was one of the best-performing S&P 500 components.

Other outperformers included airlines and cruise lines such as United Airlines (UAL 92.07, +6.86, +8.05%) and Carnival (CCL 25.88, +1.92, +8.01%) as oil prices stabilized today, while stocks tied to bitcoin and gold also mounted solid gains.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+3.4%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+2.8%) finished with gains similar to those across the major averages.

All told, today's session marked a meaningful uptick in sentiment as talks of a ceasefire in the war in Iran gained traction, with Tehran now signaling a willingness to end the conflict under certain conditions-a notable shift from just days ago, when it had rejected ceasefire proposals outright. The S&P 500 captured its widest single-day gain since last May, a much-needed relief rally after several weeks of downward momentum. However, the situation in Iran has proven to be delicate, and oil remains above the $100 per barrel mark, highlighting that a definitive end to the energy shock is not yet a certainty.

The major averages will enter the first session of the second quarter pinned below their respective 200-day moving averages, though today's rally moved them significantly closer to the key technical level.

U.S. Treasuries ended March on a higher note, continuing Friday's rebound off 2026 lows. The 2-year note yield settled down three basis points to 3.80% (+42 bps in March; +32 bps in Q1), and the 10-year note yield settled down three basis points to 4.31% (+35 bps in March; +14 bps in Q1).

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +2.2% YTD
• Russell 2000: +0.6% YTD 
• DJIA: -3.6% YTD
• S&P 500: -4.6% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -7.1% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• January FHFA Housing Price Index 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%); Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.1%
• January S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 1.6% (Briefing.com consensus 1.3%); Prior was revised to 1.9% from 1.4%
• March Chicago PMI 52.8 (Briefing.com consensus 54.8); Prior 57.7
• March Consumer Confidence 91.8 (Briefing.com consensus 88.0); Prior was revised to 91.0 from 91.2
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the headline numbers don't convey any abject concern among consumers about the Iran war, yet that concern showed up in higher 12-month inflation expectations, which jumped to 6.2% from 5.5% in February, marking the highest level since August 2025.
• February JOLTs - Job Openings 6.882 mln (Briefing.com consensus 6.795 mln); Prior was revised to 7.240 mln from 6.946 mln