[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market had a tumultuous day as equities faced a sharp intraday reversal, which wiped out the early gains that followed NVIDIA's (NVDA 180.64, -5.88, -3.15%) stellar earnings report. 

Investors eagerly anticipated results from the world's largest company as the AI trade's momentum has stalled as of late. NVIDIA delivered on the hype, cruising past earnings expectations and delivering robust Q4 guidance. 

The S&P 500 (-1.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-2.2%), and DJIA (-0.8%) held gains wider than 1.0%, pushing them back above their 50-day moving averages, which had been violated earlier in the week. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (-4.8%) and Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (-2.0%) were both up around 3.0% as NVIDIA's gain widened to nearly 5.0%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors traded higher as the broader market rallied with strong leadership from the market's largest names. 

Stocks hit a peak just before 11:00 ET, before a relatively sharp sell-off ensued. Some profit-taking was to be expected with such a large swing across the mega-caps, but the retreat broadened to nearly every corner of the market. 

The information technology sector (-2.7%) was hit the hardest, charting session lows through the close as the sector nearly inversed its early gain. Micron (MU 201.37, -24.55, -10.87%) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 206.02, -17.53, -7.84%) were among the names (along with NVIDIA) to push the PHLX Semiconductor Index 4.8% lower, while Oracle (ORCL 210.69, -14.84, -6.58%) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR 155.74, -9.68, -5.85%) also faced outsized losses. 

The industrials (-1.7%), consumer discretionary (-1.7%), materials (-1.6%), and communication services (-1.1%) sectors also faced considerable losses. 

Only the consumer staples sector (+1.1%) closed with a gain today. The sector was boosted from the open by Walmart (WMT 107.11, +6.50, +6.46%) after a solid beat-and-raise earnings report, while the defensive nature of the sector kept it largely resilient to the broader market pullback. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-1.9%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.6%) faced losses similar to that of their larger-cap counterparts. 

Today's batch of economic data painted a mixed picture of the labor market. The September Employment Report saw a 119,000 increase in payrolls, but also included a downward revision to -4,000 for August. There was also an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.4% from 4.3%, so the overall report was not as strong as the headline reading suggested. This will be the final jobs report ahead of the December FOMC meeting since the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the November report until December 16.

All told, today's data facilitated a modest increase in expectations for a December rate cut, though it still remains an unlikely occurrence. The CME FedWatch tool now assigns a 39.6% probability to a 25-basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, up from 30.1% yesterday. 

Today's trade ultimately gives credence to concerns that the most recent run to record highs was too reliant on mega-cap leadership and the promise of an additional easing from the Fed. NVIDIA's inability to sustain gains after a blowout earnings report shows that the market's sentiment around the AI trade is still skewed to the downside, keeping the major averages from holding above the critical 50-day moving average level. 

U.S. Treasuries climbed on Thursday, recovering their slim midweek losses. The 2-year note yield settled down four basis points to 3.56%, and the 10-year note yield settled down three basis points to 4.11%. 

• Nasdaq Composite: +14.3% YTD
• S&P 500: +11.2% YTD
• DJIA: +7.5% YTD
• Russell 2000: +3.4% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: -0.4% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• The September employment report, which is certainly a lagging indicator this time, suggested the labor market was not falling apart in September. In fact, nonfarm payroll gains accelerated to 119,000 after declining by 4,000 in August.
  • This wasn't an abjectly strong report, nor was it an abjectly weak report. We wouldn't call it "just right" either, not with the uptick in the unemployment rate and the stalling out of average weekly hours worked, but the key takeaway is that this report wouldn't be enough to convince the more hawkish-minded Fed officials to cut rates in December.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 decreased by 8,000 to a lowly 220,000. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 8 increased by 28,000 to a not-so-lowly 1.974 million, which is the highest since November 6, 2021.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it corroborates the low firing, low hiring narrative hanging over the labor market.
• Existing home sales increased 1.2% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million (Briefing.com consensus 4.08 million) from a downwardly revised 4.05 million (from 4.06 million) in September. Sales were up 1.7% on a year-over-year basis.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that home sales in October were aided by lower mortgage rates, yet limited inventory in some regions, combined with high prices in others, got in the way of stronger selling activity.
• November Philadelphia Fed Index -1.7 vs. 2.0 Briefing.com consensus; prior -12.8

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages trade in a steady range near session lows as the market enters the final half hour of the session. 

The information technology sector (-2.1%) widens its loss for the day past 2.0%. NVIDIA's (NVDA 182.43, -4.09, -2.19%) turnaround is the story of the day, but it is far from the worst performer in the sector. That title belongs to Micron (MU 202.27, -23.65, -10.47%), while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 209.32, -14.22, -6.36%), Oracle (ORCL 213.95, -11.58, -5.13%), and Palantir Technologies (PLTR 157.11, -8.31, -5.02%) also face significant losses. 

[BRIEFING.COM] It has been a steady retreat to session lows for the S&P 500 (-0.9%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.4%), and DJIA (-0.5%) this afternoon. 

The bustle of this morning's reaction to NVIDIA's (NVDA 183.02, -3.50, -1.88%) earnings report and the subsequent downturn into negative territory has faded into an uneventful afternoon that sees the broader market mostly lower, with little sign of a turnaround. 

The CBOE Volatility Index, which was down more than 14% this morning, is now up 8.5% to 25.68.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasuries have padded their gains alongside the reversal in stocks. The 2-year note yield is down four basis points to 3.56%, and the 10-year note yield is down three basis points to 4.10%. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.98%) is in second place on Thursday afternoon, down about 65 points.

Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Jacobs Solutions (J 129.25, -15.80, -10.89%), Robinhood Markets (HOOD 108.28, -9.88, -8.36%), and Micron (MU 204.97, -20.95, -9.27%) pepper the bottom of the standings. J falls due in part to its FY26 guidance coming in only modestly above expectations, with a low-end EPS miss and flat margin outlook, disappointing investors despite a small Q4 beat, while MU falls as SK Hynix (HXSCL) plans a big 2026 ramp in advanced DRAM output, stoking worries about future oversupply and pricing pressure in the memory market.

Meanwhile, Regeneron Pharma (REGN 741.27, +39.40, +5.61%) is among today's top performers after the FDA unexpectedly approved Eylea HD for RVO and monthly dosing, easing manufacturing-related regulatory fears and expanding the drug's market reach, which analysts say strengthens its position versus Vabysmo and supports a stronger growth outlook.

[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-1.67%) is today's worst-performing major average with about two hours to go on Thursday.

Gold futures settled $22.80 lower (-0.6%) at $4,060.00/oz, as a stronger dollar and reduced expectations for a December Fed rate cut pressured non-yielding assets. Traders pointed to cautious Fed minutes and the upcoming delayed U.S. jobs report as reinforcing higher-for-longer rate sentiment, which weighed on the yellow metal.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up less than +0.1% to $100.20.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.25%) is down now about 116 points on Thursday afternoon, hosting the shallowest losses among the major averages.

A look inside the DJIA shows that Boeing (BA 180.37, -5.33, -2.87%), Cisco (CSCO 77.09, -1.30, -1.66%), and Amgen (AMGN 338.58, -3.82, -1.12%) are underperforming.

Meanwhile, Walmart (WMT 106.90, +6.29, +6.25%) is today's top gain getter.

The DJIA is now down -2.38% week-to-date.

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market opened to broad-based gains fueled by a strong beat-and-raise earnings report from NVIDIA (NVDA 183.74, -2.78, -1.49%), though a sharp intraday retreat has the broader market mostly lower just after midday. 

The S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%), and DJIA (-0.4%) ceded their early gains that surpassed 1.0% and saw the major averages reclaim their 50-day moving averages. NVIDIA's move into negative territory is a driving catalyst of the retreat, as the stock previously held a gain that neared 5.0%. 

Pressure across chipmaker names pushes the PHLX Semiconductor Index (-2.7%) to a near inverse of its early gain. The broader information technology sector (-1.5%) is now at the bottom of today's leaderboard after holding the top spot with a gain that approached 3.0%. 

Nine S&P 500 sectors now trade lower. All eleven sectors held gains this morning amid impressive breadth figures, though decliners now outpace advancers by a roughly 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and the Nasdaq. 

The consumer staples sector (+0.9%) is the only real winner at this juncture. A solid earnings report from Walmart (WMT 106.22, +5.61, +5.58%) pushed the sector out to an early gain with the broader market, while its more defensive orientation has kept it resilient to the intraday sell-off. 

On the macro front, the market received a sizable batch of economic data this morning that painted a mixed picture of the labor market. The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns a 41.4% probability to a 25-basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting. While that is up from just 30.1% yesterday, the poor odds continue to act as a headwind for the market. 

Ultimately, the swift reversal in NVIDIA and its peers hints that the broader AI momentum unwind is regaining its footing. For now, it's a lingering headwind that keeps resurfacing whenever the market leans too heavily on growth leadership.

Reviewing today's data:

• The September employment report, which is certainly a lagging indicator this time, suggested the labor market was not falling apart in September. In fact, nonfarm payroll gains accelerated to 119,000 after declining by 4,000 in August.
  • This wasn't an abjectly strong report, nor was it an abjectly weak report. We wouldn't call it "just right" either, not with the uptick in the unemployment rate and the stalling out of average weekly hours worked, but the key takeaway is that this report wouldn't be enough to convince the more hawkish-minded Fed officials to cut rates in December.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 decreased by 8,000 to a lowly 220,000. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 8 increased by 28,000 to a not-so-lowly 1.974 million, which is the highest since November 6, 2021.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it corroborates the low firing, low hiring narrative hanging over the labor market.
• Existing home sales increased 1.2% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million (Briefing.com consensus 4.08 million) from a downwardly revised 4.05 million (from 4.06 million) in September. Sales were up 1.7% on a year-over-year basis.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that home sales in October were aided by lower mortgage rates, yet limited inventory in some regions, combined with high prices in others, got in the way of stronger selling activity.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.8%), and DJIA (-0.5%) are all firmly lower as NVIDIA (NVDA 183.93, -2.59, -1.39%) and the broader AI trade succumb to selling pressure. 

The consumer staples sector (+1.0%) is one of just three S&P 500 sectors that remain in positive territory and the only one with a gain wider than 0.2%. 

Walmart (WMT 106.52, +5.91, +5.87%) now holds the widest gain across S&P 500 names after a solid beat-and-raise earnings report before the open today. Walmart's gains supported a strong early advance in the sector, while its more defensive positioning has kept it largely resilient from today's intraday retreat. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (flat), Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%), and DJIA (flat) are at session lows as the market now faces some profit-taking from this morning's highs. 

The industrials sector (-0.4%) was the first S&P 500 sector to slip below its baseline, with the health care (-0.2%) and materials (-0.2%) sectors not far behind.

The information technology sector (-0.1%) now also slipped lower, which is weighing heavily on the major averages. NVIDIA (NVDA 185.93, -0.59, -0.32%) has given up the entirety of its nearly 3.0% gain today. Chipmakers have been hit especially hard with the recent wave of selling, as the PHLX Semiconductor Index now holds a 1.2% loss

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.9%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%), and DJIA (+0.7%) are firmly higher just before midday as the market advances on NVIDIA's (NVDA 191.09, +4.57, +2.45%) impressive earnings report. 

The company coasted past earnings expectations and offered robust guidance, restoring confidence to the AI trade, which has been on the retreat as of recent. Mega-caps are higher across the board, though the market is off of its best levels of the morning as some modest profit-taking ensues. 

Still, the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF is up 1.2%, the PHLX Semiconductor Index is up 1.1%, and the CBOE Volatility Index is down 13.7% to 20.41.  All eleven S&P 500 sectors hold gains for the day. 

The small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.9%) hold similar gains amid today's risk-on sentiment.

Walmart (WMT 106.75, +6.14, +6.10%) adds to the positive sentiment after a solid beat-and-raise earnings report of its own. 

The market also received the September Nonfarm Payrolls Report along with this week's jobless claims data. Following this morning's data, the CME FedWatch Tool now assigns a 39.6% probability to a 25-basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, up from 30.1% yesterday. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages trade in a steady range, with each index firmly holding on to gains wider than 1.0%. 

NVIDIA (NVDA 192.19, +5.67, +3.04%) is higher today after delivering a robust Q3 (Oct) beat-and-raise, easing concerns about a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending. Notably, the quarter showed strength despite negligible H20 sales and the company's Q4 (Jan) revenue guidance excludes all Data Center compute revenue from China-yet still came in far ahead of expectations.

Founder/CEO Jensen Huang was especially bullish on the call, saying Blackwell sales are "off the charts and cloud GPUs are sold out." He emphasized that compute demand across both training and inference continues to accelerate exponentially, adding that we've entered a "virtuous cycle of AI." The ecosystem is expanding rapidly, with more foundation model developers, more AI startups, and broader global adoption.

On the policy front, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (FOMC nonvoting member) told CNBC she still believes policy needs to be "somewhat restrictive."

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+1.7%), Nasdaq Composite (+2.3%), and DJIA (+1.3%) maintain their solid early strength as mega-caps outperform amid a backdrop of nearly ubiquitous participation. 

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 (+1.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.3%) also hold nice gains as the market displays a clear risk-on positioning today. 

Existing home sales increased 1.2% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million (Briefing.com consensus 4.08 million) from a downwardly revised 4.05 million (from 4.06 million) in September. Sales were up 1.7% on a year-over-year basis.

The key takeaway from the report is that home sales in October were aided by lower mortgage rates, yet limited inventory in some regions, combined with high prices in others, got in the way of stronger selling activity.

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market opened to solid gains that pushed the S&P 500 (+1.9%), Nasdaq Composite (+2.5%), and DJIA (+1.8%) back above their 50-day moving averages. 

Stocks rallied in response to NVIDIA's (NVDA 195.16, +8.64, +4.63%) earnings report yesterday after the close. The company topped expectations and delivered robust guidance, which has restored some momentum to the AI trade. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index is up 2.6%, and the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF is up 2.4%, driving the index-level gains. The information technology (+2.8%) and communication services (+2.7%) sectors are at the top of this morning's leaderboard, as Alphabet (GOOG 305.12, +12.13, +4.14%) is yet again a standout.

The broader market is also trending higher, with all eleven S&P 500 sectors holding gains. Seven of those sectors hold gains of 1.0% or wider. 

Stocks are also boosted by an increase in December rate-cut odds. This morning's batch of employment data was a mixed bag that showed recent improvements to the labor market but some hefty downward revisions to previous levels. All told, the CME FedWatch Tool now assigns a 43.8% probability to a December rate cut after odds had slipped below 30% this morning. 

Just released, October Existing Home Sales increased to 4.10 mln (Briefing.com consensus 4.08 mln) from a downwardly revised prior level of 4.05 (from 4.06 mln). 

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 109 points above fair value. 

The September employment report, which is certainly a lagging indicator this time, suggested the labor market was not falling apart in September. In fact, nonfarm payroll gains accelerated to 119,000 after declining by 4,000 in August.

This wasn't an abjectly strong report, nor was it an abjectly weak report. We wouldn't call it "just right" either, not with the uptick in the unemployment rate and the stalling out of average weekly hours worked, but the key takeaway is that this report wouldn't be enough to convince the more hawkish-minded Fed officials to cut rates in December.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 decreased by 8,000 to a lowly 220,000. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 8 increased by 28,000 to a not-so-lowly 1.974 million, which is the highest since November 6, 2021.

The key takeaway from the report is that it corroborates the low firing, low hiring narrative hanging over the labor market.

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 104 points above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a higher note. China expanded its restrictions on trade with Japan by banning imports of Japanese beef in response to Japan Prime Minister Takaichi's comment that Japan should defend Taiwan in case of an annexation attempt from China. China's rare earth magnet exports to the U.S. in October were up 56% month-over-month. The People's Bank of China left its one-year and five-year loan prime rates at their respective 3.00% and 3.50%, as expected.

• In economic data:
  • Hong Kong's October CPI 0.3% m/m (last 0.1%); 1.2% yr/yr (last 1.1%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +2.7%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: UNCH
• China's Shanghai Composite: -0.4%
• India's Sensex: +0.5%
• South Korea's Kospi: +1.9%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.3%

Major European indices trade in the green. European Central Bank policymaker Makhlouf said that he is comfortable with the central bank's current policy stance, echoing recent comments from other governing council members. BNP Paribas raised its profitability targets for the coming years. Belgium's budget minister Vincent Van Peteghem is reportedly a frontrunner to become the new Eurogroup chief after the recent resignation of Pascal Donohoe.

• In economic data:
  • Germany's October PPI 0.1% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.1%); -1.8% yr/yr (expected -1.9%; last -1.7%)
  • U.K.'s November CBI Industrial Trends Orders -37 (expected -33; last -38)
  • Swiss October trade surplus CHF4.319 bln (expected surplus of CHF4.76 bln; last surplus of CHF3.99 bln)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +1.1%
• Germany's DAX: +1.1%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.7%
• France's CAC 40: +1.1%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.3%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.9%

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 80 points above fair value. 

Just released, September nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 50,000). August nonfarm payrolls were revised to -4,000 from 22,000.

August private sector payrolls increased by 97,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 58,000), from a downwardly revised 18,000 in August (from 38,000).

The September unemployment rate was 4.4% (Briefing.com consensus: 4.3%) versus 4.3% in August.

The September average workweek was 34.2 (Briefing.com consensus 34.3) from a prior level of 34.2.

Weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 decreased to 220,000 from 238,000. 

Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 8 increased to 1.974 million (from 1.946 million). 

Equity futures point to a sharply higher open after the major averages snapped their recent losing streak in yesterday's trade as tech names gained momentum ahead of NVIDIA's (NVDA 195.87, +9.35, +5.0%) earnings report. 

NVIDIA delivered on the hype, besting earnings expectations and, more importantly, issuing strong guidance, which has restored some momentum to the AI trade after a descent from record highs. 

Yesterday's action featured some choppiness, as the rebound in tech names was at times weighed down by dampened expectations for a December rate cut. The BLS confirmed that much of the employment data from the government shutdown will be delayed or withheld, and the October FOMC meeting minutes showed some hawkishness among Fed officials.

The CME FedWatch Tool currently assigns a 27.8% probability to a 25-basis point rate cut in December, making the 8:30 ET release of the September Nonfarms Payroll Report all the more important if there is to be any chance of another cut this year. 

With the sharp rise in NVIDIA and other mega-cap names, it may not matter much in today's trade. 

In corporate news:

• Moderna (MRNA 24.73, +0.55, +2.3%) trades higher in the premarket; the company says it expects 10% revenue growth over the next year at its investor day. 
• NVIDIA (NVDA 195.87, +9.35, +5.0%) beat EPS expectations by $0.04, beat revenue expectations, and guided Q4 revenues above consensus. The company noted that Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out.
• Walmart (WMT 100.80, +0.19, +0.2%) beat EPS expectations by $0.02, beat revenue expectations, and saw comparable sales rise 4.5%. The company raised its FY26 EPS and net sales growth guidance. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +2.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: UNCH, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.4%, India's Sensex: +0.5%, South Korea's Kospi: +1.9%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.3%.

In news:

• China expanded its restrictions on trade with Japan by banning imports of Japanese beef in response to Japan Prime Minister Takaichi's comment that Japan should defend Taiwan in case of an annexation attempt from China.
• China's rare earth magnet exports to the U.S. in October were up 56% month-over-month.
• The People's Bank of China left its one-year and five-year loan prime rates at their respective 3.00% and 3.50%, as expected.

In economic data:

• Hong Kong's October CPI 0.3% m/m (last 0.1%); 1.2% yr/yr (last 1.1%)

Major European indices trade in the green. STOXX Europe 600: +0.5% Germany's DAX: +0.8% U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.6% France's CAC 40: +0.8% Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.8% Spain's IBEX 35: +0.6%

In news:

• European Central Bank policymaker Makhlouf said that he is comfortable with the central bank's current policy stance, echoing recent comments from other governing council members.
• BNP Paribas raised its profitability targets for the coming years.
• Belgium's budget minister Vincent Van Peteghem is reportedly a frontrunner to become the new Eurogroup chief after the recent resignation of Pascal Donohoe.

In economic data:

• Germany's October PPI 0.1% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.1%); -1.8% yr/yr (expected -1.9%; last -1.7%)
• U.K.'s November CBI Industrial Trends Orders -37 (expected -33; last -38)
• Swiss October trade surplus CHF4.319 bln (expected surplus of CHF4.76 bln; last surplus of CHF3.99 bln)

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market saw some choppy action today in response to an abundance of catalysts, though a rebound in sentiment across tech names ahead of NVIDIA's (NVDA 186.52, +5.16, +2.85%) earnings ultimately saw the S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%), and DJIA (+0.1%) close higher. 

Mega-cap and tech names got off to a solid start as Alphabet (GOOG 292.99, +8.03, +2.82%) traded to a new record high, pushing the communication services sector (+0.7%) to an early gain that exceeded 3.0%. 

Concurrently, the information technology sector (+0.9%) held a gain just past 2.0% that was supported by a nearly 3.0% surge in the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+1.8%) ahead of NVIDIA's earnings. Broadcom (AVGO 354.42, +13.92, +4.09%) was a standout throughout the session. 

While there were some early pockets of weakness in the broader market that kept the DJIA near its baseline, the market took a clear downward turn just after midday as the BLS announced it will not release the October Employment Situation Report. The BLS also confirmed that the September JOLTS report will not be published, and the October JOLTS report will be released Tuesday, December 9. Meanwhile, the November Employment Situation Report will be published Tuesday, December 16.

Expectations for a December rate cut fell sharply as labor-market concerns have been the main catalyst behind the Fed's recent easing. The decision to withhold or delay key data releases is seen as further clouding the already murky labor market picture.

Following the announcement, the CME FedWatch tool lowered its odds for a 25-basis point rate cut to around 38%, down from 50.1% yesterday. 

Stocks slipped in response, with the major averages collectively moving into negative territory for the day. At one point, the communication services sector was the only S&P 500 sector to hold a gain, as even the information technology sector ceded the entirety of its 2.0% advance. 

The market hit session lows around 12:45 PM ET before rebounding. Stocks traded in a choppy fashion before hitting another roadblock at 2:00 PM ET, this time in the form of the October FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes did not reveal any particularly new opinions from Fed officials regarding a December cut. Some participants see that a December rate cut could be the appropriate course of action, some participants believe keeping the target rate unchanged for the rest of the year is likely most appropriate, and nearly all expressed a need to proceed with caution as both sides of the Fed's dual mandate come under pressure. 

Nonetheless, the CME FedWatch Tool indicated another decline in the likelihood of a December rate cut, which fell to 31.6% this afternoon. At the moment, a 33.5% probability is attached to the Fed cutting again in December. 

Stocks hit another trough before mounting a turnaround effort at 3:00 PM ET. This would prove to be the last large swing of the day and helped the S&P 500 snap a four-day losing streak. 

NVIDIA helped pace the gains, trading toward session highs late in the afternoon as sentiment improved ahead of its earnings release. The information technology (+0.9%) and communication services (+0.7%) sectors finished at the top of a leaderboard that ultimately saw six sectors close higher. 

The consumer discretionary sector (+0.1%) eked out a gain as Amazon (AMZN 222.69, +0.14, +0.06%) closed slightly higher, while Lowe's (LOW 228.40, +8.83, +4.02%) added support following an upbeat earnings report. 

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF closed with a 0.8% gain, its best finish since last Monday. Today's session was the first in which the major averages closed higher across the board since last Monday as well, with a rebound in confidence across semiconductor and mega-cap names playing a pivotal role in restoring momentum. 

All eyes now turn to NVIDIA's earnings release. If the world's largest company delivers a strong report and, more importantly, issues strong guidance, the market could be poised for a stronger rebound from its recent slide. 

U.S. Treasuries had a quiet showing on Wednesday, resulting in slim losses across the curve. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.60%, and the 10-year note yield settled up one basis point to 4.13%. 

• Nasdaq Composite: +16.9% YTD
• S&P 500: +12.9% YTD
• DJIA: +8.5% YTD
• Russell 2000: +5.3% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +1.2% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• MBA Mortgage Applications Index -5.2% wk/wk, with refinance applications down 7% and purchase applications down 2%
• The trade deficit was $59.6 billion in August (Briefing.com consensus: -$61.0 billion) versus an upwardly revised $78.2 billion (from $78.3 billion) in July. That was the result of exports being $0.2 billion more than July exports and imports being $18.4 billion less than July imports.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it will factor favorably into the Q3 GDP report, given the positive contribution from the net export component.