[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.4%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.7%), and DJIA (-1.1%) are ticking lower toward their worst levels of the session shortly before the close. 

Consumer credit increased by $8.1 billion in January (Briefing.com consensus: $9.9 billion) following an upwardly revised $25.2 billion increase (from $24.0 billion) in December.

The key takeaway from the report is that the credit expansion was modest but fairly balanced in January, with revolving and nonrevolving credit both increasing for the month.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.1%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.2%), and DJIA (-1.0%) remain little changed from previous levels as the market enters the final hour of this week's action. 

Crude oil futures settled today's session $9.89 higher (+12.2%) at $90.86 per barrel. 

Just released, consumer credit increased by $8.05 billion in January (Briefing.com consensus: $9.9 billion) following an upwardly revised $25.2 billion increase (from $24.0 billion) in December.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.10%) is tied with its major counterparts, all down about -1.10% on the session.

Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Teradyne (TER 279.69, -25.89, -8.47%), Generac (GNRC 206.11, -12.70, -5.80%), and FedEx (FDX 354.23, -19.12, -5.12%) dot the bottom of the standings. Despite strength in Marvell (MRVL) following its widely covered earnings, shares of TER are among today's worst-performing semi stocks as the group feels pressure amid a rotation into software stocks, while FDX slips as the stock trades ex-div today.

Meanwhile, fertilizer stock CF Industries (CF 118.03, +7.25, +6.54%) is firmly higher.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (-1.04%) is in "first" place, albeit down 237 points on Friday afternoon, with more aggressive losses being had elsewhere.

Gold futures settled $56.00 lower (-1.1%) at $5,078.70/oz, down -1.7% on the week, after weaker-than-expected U.S. payroll data boosted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting demand for non-yielding assets. Safe-haven buying tied to ongoing Middle East tensions also helped lift prices, though bullion remains lower for the week after earlier pressure from a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down less than -0.1% to $99.00.

[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.95%) is down about 450 points, just off session highs in recent trading.

A look inside the DJIA shows that American Express (AXP 300.22, -6.99, -2.28%), 3M (MMM 152.82, -3.39, -2.17%), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 287.66, -5.89, -2.01%) are some of today's top laggards.

Meanwhile, Boeing (BA 230.00, +7.94, +3.58%) is outperforming.

The DJIA is poised to end the week -3.02% lower.

Also, at the top of the hour, Baker Hughes (BKR 60.61, +0.42, +0.70%) announced a weekly U.S. rotary rig count of 551, +1 w/w and -41 yr/yr.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.2%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.2%), and DJIA (-1.1%) are ticking lower again today as geopolitical turmoil in Iran and the subsequent increase in fuel prices continue to put broad pressure on the market. 

Financial Times reported that Qatar's energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, warned that all Gulf oil producers could be forced to halt production in the coming days as the conflict endangers operations. Crude oil is currently up $10.57 (+13.1%) to $91.58 per barrel as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill. 

Additionally, President Trump said via Truth Social that an end to the war will not be negotiated without an "unconditional surrender" from Iran, leaving investors to face concerns that the conflict may last longer than anticipated.

The market faces broad weakness with few pockets of relative strength today. The energy sector (flat) has spent the session oscillating around its flatline, while a solid earnings report from Costco (COST 996.51, +13.94, +1.42%) and continued post-earnings strength in Kroger (KR 74.37, +2.80, +3.91%) help keep the consumer staples sector (-0.2%) within reach of its own unchanged level. 

Meanwhile, several pockets of the market are under particular stress amid the surge in oil prices. Cruise line names such as Carnival (CCL 25.76, -1.40, -5.14%) are among the laggards, with the consumer discretionary sector (-1.9%) near the bottom of today's leaderboard. 

Airlines are also under pressure, with Southwest Air (LUV 40.90, -3.00, -6.84%) a notable laggard in the industrials sector (-1.5%), while Old Dominion (ODFL 195.30, -15.38, -7.30%) also faces a sharp retreat. 

The financials sector (-2.2%) holds the widest loss, though some of the weakness is more directly attributed to a continuation of recent pressure across asset managers. Financial Times reported that BlackRock (BLK 959.18, -75.82, -7.33%) has limited withdrawals from its HPS Corporate Lending Fund. 

This morning's batch of economic data has also weighed on sentiment today. A surprising 92,000 decrease in February nonfarm payrolls has prompted stagflation concerns. While the data provided a modest increase to the market's rate cut expectations, Fed officials warn that the outlook could become clouded by the surge in oil prices showing up on inflation readings. 

The major averages are now tracking for a lower finish to the week, facing pressure on multiple fronts today. It is worth noting that stocks have followed a trend of finishing off of their session lows this week as the afternoon hours have delivered more optimistic headlines related to the mitigation of oil prices. However, a decisive move above $90 per barrel highlights that mitigation talks have yet to offer real relief, as the oil surge remains a major overhang.

Reviewing today's data:

• Nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February (Briefing.com consensus: 60,000). Revisions for December and January combined were 69,000 lower than previously reported. The bright spot was average hourly earnings, which jumped 0.4%, leaving the year-over-year increase at 3.8% versus 3.7% in January, and real earnings on a positive trajectory.
  
  • The key takeaway from the report, however, is that it muddles the economic view for the Fed, too, with its twin planks of negative job growth and higher wage inflation. Accordingly, look for the Fed to sit on its policy hands, unwilling to cut rates for now as it also contends with the spike in oil prices and the uncertainty of the Iran war
• Total retail sales were down 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: -0.1%) following an unchanged reading for December. Excluding autos, retail sales were flat (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) for the second straight month.
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that sales activity was disrupted by the winter storms, so the result isn't as disappointing as it looks, which comes through in the fact that nonstore retailer sales were up a robust 1.9% month-over-month.
• December Business inventories increased 0.1% from an unchanged prior reading.

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.1%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%), and DJIA (-1.2%) continue to trade in a relatively tight range shortly after midday. 

Crude oil has surpassed the $90 per barrel mark, currently trading up $9.45 (+11.7%) to $90.46 per barrel. Notably, President Trump via Truth Social called for a "unconditional surrender" from Iran, prompting concerns of a drawn-out conflict. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain firmly lower at midday. 

The market has seen a modest increase in its implied rate cut expectations from the Fed after this morning's employment situation report showed a surprise decrease of 92,000 in nonfarm payrolls.

The probability of an at least 25-basis point rate cut at the June FOMC meeting rose to around 50%, up from just 33% yesterday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. However, it is worth noting that the upward pressure on oil prices could complicate the Fed's decision as it balances labor market weakness against inflation concerns. 

[BRIEFING.COM] Today's action is all too familiar as stocks trade broadly lower amid another large spike in energy prices. The S&P 500 (-1.1%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%), and DJIA (-1.1%) are lower across the board, with each index now in negative territory for the week. 

Crude oil is currently up $7.65 (+9.4%) to $88.66 per barrel, and the energy sector (+0.1%) is once again the only S&P 500 sector in positive territory. Notably, Financial Times reported that Qatar's energy minister said that the war in Iran could force Gulf oil producers to halt production in the coming days. 

Elsewhere, Costco (COST 998.48, +15.91, +1.62%) is nicely higher following its earnings report, which helps keep the consumer staples sector (-0.2%) near its flatline, while the other nine S&P 500 sectors trade with considerably wider losses. 

The financials sector (-2.0%) is the weakest performer, with asset manager names facing particular weakness after Financial Times reported that BlackRock (BLK 968.00, -67.00, -6.47%) limited withdrawals from its HPS Corporate Lending Fund.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-2.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-2.0%) once again trail the major averages as the market's risk-off positioning continues to weigh more heavily on smaller-cap names, which tend to be more sensitive to tightening financial conditions and economic uncertainty.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to see improvement off of their session lows, though weakness remains broad.

The industrials sector (-1.1%) is one of several S&P 500 sectors that trade with a loss of 1.0% or wider. Airline names such as Southwest Air (LUV 41.49, -2.41, -5.49%) are once again near the bottom of the sector's leaderboard amid the spike in fuel prices, while Old Dominion (ODFL 196.86, -13.82, -6.56%) also takes a hit. 

Meanwhile, aerospace and defense names such as Huntington Ingalls (HII 430.04, +8.87, +2.11%) and RTX (RTX 206.96, +3.10, +1.52%) are among the relative outperformers. The iShares DJ Aerospace ETF (+0.5%) holds a modest gain. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.2%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.0%), and DJIA (-1.4%) are a touch improved from their worst levels of the morning. While geopolitical developments in Iran and the subsequent spike in oil prices continue to dominate headlines, a few notable companies reported earnings after the close yesterday.

Costco (COST 989.33, +6.76, +0.69%) posted a solid Q2 beat on the bottom line, driven by robust membership momentum, double-digit digital growth, and resilient traffic despite a fluid tariff environment. While total revenue was largely in line with expectations, the company's ability to flex its "pricing authority" allowed it to edge past EPS estimates. Most notably, adjusted comparable sales (excluding gas and FX) grew 6.7%, surpassing the FactSet consensus of 6.3%, signaling that COST continues to capture wallet share even as it laps significant membership fee increases and navigates shifting commodity prices.

The company reinforced its status as the Pricing Authority, delivering a clean EPS beat and top-tier comp sales that outpaced the industry. By being the "first to lower prices and the last to raise them," COST is successfully shielding its membership base from inflationary volatility and tariff-related price spikes.

Meanwhile, Marvell (MRVL 89.20, +13.52, +17.86%) is heading sharply higher following its Q4 (Jan) report, even though the headline results were mostly in line with expectations. The real driver behind the move appears to be very bullish long-term commentary and a strong outlook, particularly for its Data Center segment. Q1 (Apr) guidance also came in well above expectations, helped in part by the recent closings of the Celestial AI and XConn Technologies acquisitions. 

The combination of accelerating bookings, rising cloud CapEx expectations, and strong demand across its data center product portfolio is driving confidence that growth will not only accelerate in FY27 but also remain robust into FY28. In particular, Marvell's interconnect business appears positioned to significantly outpace overall cloud infrastructure spending, highlighting the company's leverage to AI and high-performance data center buildouts

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.4%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.2%), and DJIA (-1.6%) are sharply lower this morning as climbing oil prices once again put pressure on nearly every corner of the market. 

Crude oil is currently up $7.80 (+9.6%) to $88.81 per barrel on warnings from Qatar's energy minister that all Gulf oil producers may have to stop production in the coming days due to the war with Iran. 

All eleven S&P 500 sectors, most of which are more than 1.0% lower. Currently, the financials sector (-2.7%) holds the widest loss, with particular weakness across its asset manager names, such as Ares Management (ARES 109.84, -7.20, -6.15%). 

The materials sector (-2.6%) also lags after underperforming yesterday, facing broad weakness across its components.

Cruise lines and other travel-related names weigh on the consumer discretionary sector (-2.3%), while the top-weighted information technology sector (-1.1%) provides no relief for the major averages as semiconductors lag and software names finally face some pressure after several days of outperformance. 

Just released, business inventories increased 0.1% in December from an unchanged prior reading.

The stock market is on track for a lower opening this morning as oil prices continue to surge.

Nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February (Briefing.com consensus: 60,000). Revisions for December and January combined were 69,000 lower than previously reported. The bright spot was average hourly earnings, which jumped 0.4%, leaving the year-over-year increase at 3.8% versus 3.7% in January, and real earnings on a positive trajectory.

The key takeaway from the report, however, is that it muddles the economic view for the Fed, too, with its twin planks of negative job growth and higher wage inflation. Accordingly, look for the Fed to sit on its policy hands, unwilling to cut rates for now as it also contends with the spike in oil prices and the uncertainty of the Iran war.

Total retail sales were down 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: -0.1%) following an unchanged reading for December. Excluding autos, retail sales were flat (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) for the second straight month.

The key takeaway from the report is that sales activity was disrupted by the winter storms, so the result isn't as disappointing as it looks, which comes through in the fact that nonstore retailer sales were up a robust 1.9% month-over-month.

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 91 points below fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mixed note. The Wall Street Journal reported that Treasury Secretary Bessent will ask China to reduce its purchases of oil from U.S. adversaries ahead of President Trump's planned visit to China. Toyota supplier Denso agreed to acquire chipmaker Rohm for about $8 bln. South Korea's vice finance minister said that a price ceiling for petroleum prices will be established.

• In economic data:
  • South Korea's February CPI 0.3% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.4%); 2.0% yr/yr (expected 2.1%; last 2.0%). January Current Account surplus $13.26 bln (last surplus of $18.70 bln)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +0.6% 
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.7%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +0.4% 
• India's Sensex: -1.4%
• South Korea's Kospi: UNCH 
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.9%

Major European indices are on track for a lower finish to the week. European Central Bank policymaker De Guindos said that the central bank's policy stance could change if inflation expectations are affected by the war with Iran. Lufthansa reported in-line results for Q4. Shipping giant Maersk suspended its routes from the Far East to the Middle East and from Middle East to Europe.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's Q4 GDP 0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 0.3%; last 0.3%); 1.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.4%). Q4 Employment Change 0.2% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.2%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -1.6% 
• Germany's DAX: -0.5%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.5% 
• France's CAC 40: -0.6% 
• Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.5% 
• Spain's IBEX 35: -0.7% 

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 51 points below fair value.  

February nonfarm payrolls decreased by 92,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 60,000). January nonfarm payrolls were revised to 126,000 from 130,000. 

February private sector payrolls decreased by 86,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 78,000). January nonfarm payrolls were revised to 146,000 from 172,000.

The February unemployment rate was 4.4% (Briefing.com consensus: 4.3%) versus an unrevised 4.3% in January.

February average hourly earnings were up 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) versus an unrevised 0.4% increase in January.

The average workweek in February was 34.3 hours (Briefing.com consensus: 34.3) versus 34.3 hours in January.

Total retail sales decreased 0.2% month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus: -0.1%) following an unchanged reading in December.

Excluding autos, retail sales were unchanged month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) following an unchanged reading in December.

Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning as rising fuel prices continue to put broad pressure on the market. 

The major averages finished lower across the board yesterday amid a surge in oil prices, though they finished well off of their worst levels following some headlines in the afternoon around possible mitigation strategies. Bloomberg reports that this will not include the Treasury trading oil futures to help bring down prices.

Crude oil is currently up $5.22 (+6.4%) to $86.23 per barrel. Notably, Financial Times reports that Qatar has warned the war in Iran could force Gulf oil producers to shut down all production within days. 

Bloomberg reports that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a nearly complete halt. 

The war in Iran and the resulting surge in fuel prices continue to be a major overhang for the market, with the major averages entering today's session mostly lower for the week. 

Elsewhere, the market has a sizable batch of economic data to review this morning, including the February Employment Situation Report and January Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) at 8:30 a.m. ET. 

In corporate news:

• Costco (COST 978.87, -3.70, -0.4%) beat EPS expectations by $0.03, reported revenues in-line, and reported adjusted comparable sales of 6.7%. 
• The U.S. is mulling requiring permits for NVIDIA (NVDA 180.66, -2.68, -1.5%) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 196.95, -2.50, -1.3%) global AI chip sales, according to Bloomberg. 
• Marvell Technology (MRVL 84.17, +8.49, +11.2%) beat EPS expectations by $0.01 and reported revenues in-line. The company guided Q1 EPS and revenues above consensus. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.7%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.4%, India's Sensex: -1.4%, South Korea's Kospi: UNCH, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.9%.

In news:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that Treasury Secretary Bessent will ask China to reduce its purchases of oil from U.S. adversaries ahead of President Trump's planned visit to China.
• Toyota supplier Denso agreed to acquire chipmaker Rohm for about $8 billion.
• South Korea's vice finance minister said that a price ceiling for petroleum prices will be established.

In economic data:

• South Korea's February CPI 0.3% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.4%); 2.0% yr/yr (expected 2.1%; last 2.0%). January Current Account surplus $13.26 bln (last surplus of $18.70 bln)

Major European indices are on track for a lower finish to the week. STOXX Europe 600: -1.0%, Germany's DAX: -0.8%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.7%, France's CAC 40: -0.9%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.0%, Spain's IBEX 35: -1.1%.

In news:

• European Central Bank policymaker De Guindos said that the central bank's policy stance could change if inflation expectations are affected by the war with Iran.
• Lufthansa reported in-line results for Q4.
• Shipping giant Maersk suspended its routes from the Far East to the Middle East and from Middle East to Europe.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's Q4 GDP 0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 0.3%; last 0.3%); 1.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.4%). Q4 Employment Change 0.2% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.2%)

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks finished mostly lower today as a sharp increase in oil prices put pressure on the broader market after showing signs of stabilization yesterday. The S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%), and DJIA (-1.6%) ticked lower for the majority of the session as investors weighed concerns about how the higher fuel prices might weigh on margins or inflation readings, though they finished well off of their worst levels of the session.

Crude oil settled today's session $6.27 higher (+8.4%) at $80.97 per barrel, its highest closing level since July 2024. Reports circulated that Iran claimed to have struck a U.S. oil tanker in the Persian Gulf, though that has yet to be confirmed. What is certain, however, is that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill. 

Oil prices have come down from their highest levels after the futures settlement in reaction to several headlines. Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is "considering everything" to bring down oil prices, which follows the president's call on Tuesday for the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to insure tankers traveling through the region while touting the possibility of a U.S. Navy escort. 

Additionally, Reuters reported that China is engaged in discussions with Iran to allow the safe passage of oil and natural gas tankers through the strait. 

The developments helped the major averages finish considerably above their session lows, with the Nasdaq Composite finishing the session in positive week-to-date territory. 

Weakness was still relatively broad, with only three S&P 500 sectors charting a higher finish. 

The energy sector (+0.6%) unsurprisingly finished as the top-performer, though it too spent a considerable amount of time below its flatline today. 

The top-weighted information technology sector (+0.4%) also notched a gain supported by another strong rally in software names such as Intuit (INTU 466.79, +26.65, +6.05%) and ServiceNow (NOW 120.39, +6.53, +5.74%), sending the iShares GS Software ETF 2.3% higher. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 1.2% lower, though Broadcom (AVGO 332.74, +15.21, +4.79%) was a standout after a solid earnings report. 

The consumer discretionary sector (+0.3%) rounds out the three sectors to finish higher. Amazon (AMZN 218.94, +2.12, +0.98%) was one of the better-performing mega-cap names today, while Expedia Group (EXPE 251.54, +29.81, +13.44%) and Booking Holdings (BKNG 4613.28, +359.70, +8.46%) finished sharply higher after The Information reported that OpenAI is dialing back plans to integrate direct travel booking functionality into ChatGPT.

As for today's laggards, losses were broad and steepest among some of this year's best-performing sectors. 

Defensive sectors were among the underperformers, with the consumer staples (-2.4%) and health care (-2.0%) sectors both finishing near the bottom of the leaderboard. Walmart (WMT 123.32, -4.49, -3.51%) faced pressure after being downgraded to Hold from Buy at Erste Group, while Costco (COST 982.57, -24.17, -2.40%) also lagged ahead of its earnings release.

The materials sector (-2.3%) finished similarly despite a nice rebound in its chemical names as metal prices pulled back today. 

The industrials sector (-2.2%) rounds out the four S&P 500 sectors to finish with a loss of 2.0% or wider, with airline names and UPS (UPS 104.05, -6.45, -5.84%) among the laggards amid higher fuel prices. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-1.9%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.4%) underperformed in comparison to the major averages. 

Ultimately today was a step back for equities after yesterday's brief stabilization of oil prices fueled the narrative that the market would be able to maintain resilience despite the conflict in Iran. While stocks finished well off of their session lows, the late upward momentum was contingent on headlines that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will be addressed meaningfully before affecting global oil supply. Until that comes to fruition, the surge in oil prices poses a major overhang to the market, and with each additional day that crude prices push higher, the risk grows that the move begins to feed through to transportation costs, input prices, and ultimately inflation readings.

U.S. Treasuries retreated for the fourth consecutive day, and once again, the long bond fared better than shorter tenors, but it also finished in the red. The 2-year note yield settled up six basis points to 3.60%, the 10-year note yield settled up seven basis points to 4.15%, and the 30-year note yield settled up four basis points to 4.75%.

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +5.7% YTD
• Russell 2000: +4.2% YTD
• S&P 500: -0.2% YTD
• DJIA: -0.2% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -2.1% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• Q4 Productivity-Prel 2.8% (Briefing.com consensus 4.0%); Prior was revised to 5.2% from 4.9%, Q4 Unit Labor Costs- Prel 2.8% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to -1.8% from -1.9%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the productivity increase itself was pretty solid, yet that consideration was offset by the comparable jump in unit labor costs that aren't going to help ease concerns about sticky inflation pressures.
• Weekly Initial Claims 213K (Briefing.com consensus 216K); Prior was revised to 213K from 212K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.868 mln; Prior was revised to 1.822 mln from 1.833 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report will be the continuing low level of initial jobless claims, which connotes a labor market that is slow to fire employees.
• January Import Prices 0.2%; Prior was revised to 0.2% from 0.1%
• January Import Prices ex-oil 0.5%; Prior was revised to 0.2% from 0.4%
• January Export Prices 0.6%; Prior was revised to 0.6% from 0.3%
• January Export Prices ex-ag. 0.7%; Prior was revised to 0.7% from 0.3%