Equity futures point to a modestly lower opening this morning as investors cautiously monitor the tenuous ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.

In particular, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, which The Wall Street Journal reports has officials concerned that the ceasefire could be upended.

Additionally, Iran continues to lament Israeli strikes against the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, arguing that the ceasefire agreement extends to them as well.

Crude oil is currently up $4.09 (+4.3%) to $98.50 per barrel after retreating more than 16% yesterday.

Outside of the geopolitical realm, the market is set to receive a full slate of economic data this morning, including the February PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

In corporate news:

• Constellation Brands (STZ 148.60, -1.66, -1.1%) beat EPS expectations by $0.19, beat revenue expectations, and guided FY27 Eps below consensus.
• Meta Platforms (META 624.02, +11.60, +1.9%) and CoreWeave (CRWV 90.90, +2.00, +2.3%) expanded a $21 billion AI infrastructure deal.
• Walt Disney (DIS 98.87, -0.31, -0.3%) is planning to lay off as many as 1,000 workers under its new CEO, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.5%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.7%, India's Sensex: -1.2%, South Korea's Kospi: -1.6%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH.'

In news:

• CEO of Japanese shipper Mitsui said that there should be more clarity about activity in the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, adding that there were no reports of tankers passing through the strait over the past 24 hours.
• Foreign investors rushed back into Japanese markets last week, making for a reversal from aggressive selling in the previous week.
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Breman continues expecting the Kiwi economy to grow in 2026.

In economic data:

• Japan's March Household Confidence 33.3 (expected 38.3; last 39.7) and March Machine Tool Orders 28.1% yr/yr (last 24.2%)
• Hong Kong's March FX Reserves $430.80 bln (last $439.30 bln)

Major European indices trade in the red amid some doubts about the lasting power of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. STOXX Europe 600: -0.4%, Germany's DAX: -0.8%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.2%, France's CAC 40: -0.6%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.1%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2%.

In news:

• The Bank of England's Financial Stability Board noted that some stresses may be emerging in private credit. However, availability of credit to households increased in Q1 and is expected to increase again in Q2.
• G7 finance ministers will meet in Washington this weekend.

In economic data:

• Germany's February trade surplus EUR19.8 bln (expected surplus of EUR18.1 bln; last surplus of EUR20.3 bln). February Imports 4.7% m/m (expected 4.0%; last -5.1%) and Exports 3.6% m/m (expected 1.0%; last -1.5%)
• Spain's February Industrial Production -1.1% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last -0.2%)

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market rallied today as a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran culminated in a sharp retreat in oil prices and a meaningful improvement in sentiment across equities.

The S&P 500 (+2.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+2.8%), and DJIA (+2.9%) posted broad gains that saw the major averages reclaim their 200-day moving averages, with the S&P 500 closing just above its 50-day moving average (6,765) as well. The Russell 2000 (+3.0%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+2.8%) notched similar gains as the broader market displayed a clear risk-on disposition today.

Bloomberg reported that the U.S. and Iran are set to hold talks to seek a more permanent end to the war soon, marking a much more conciliatory tone in comparison to yesterday's rhetoric. However, the situation remains delicate, with Israeli strikes against targets in Lebanon drawing condemnation from Iran and threats to abandon the agreement.

Still, today's action marked a definitive step towards a resolution. Tanker traffic has yet to pick up through the Strait of Hormuz, but crude oil futures still settled today's session $18.45 lower (-16.4%) at $94.40 per barrel.

The energy sector (-3.7%) faced a sharp retreat as a result, but the ten other S&P 500 sectors finished with gains of 1.0% or wider.

The industrials sector (+3.8%) led the advance, supported by strong gains across airline names such as United Airlines (UAL 96.30, +7.01, +7.85%) amid the retreat in oil prices. Delta Air Lines (DAL 68.08, +2.46, +3.75%) beat earnings expectations, and the company emphasized that it is not seeing any slowdown in summer travel demand despite higher ticket prices and macro headwinds.

Similarly, cruise lines such as Carnival (CCL 28.03, +2.83, +11.23%) posted double-digit gains today as oil slid, helping the consumer discretionary sector (+2.8%) finish near the top of the leaderboard as well.

Elsewhere in the sector, homebuilders also captured solid gains amid hopes that an easing of the Iran conflict may bring mortgage rates back down.

Amazon (AMZN 221.25, +7.48, +3.50%) provided solid mega-cap leadership, though Tesla (TSLA 343.23, -3.42, -0.99%) continues its recent slide, finishing as the only "magnificent seven" stock without a gain today.

Meanwhile, Meta Platforms (META 612.42, +37.37, +6.50%) captured a monster gain following the unveiling of Muse Spark, its first step toward personal superintelligence with multimodal, multi-agent AI.

Chipmakers were also a point of strength as today's bullish session reignited momentum in the AI trade. The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 6.3% higher, helping the broader information technology sector (+2.8%) shake off relative weakness across its software components.

Today's data was limited, though the March FOMC minutes showed inflation remains above target, with higher oil prices adding near-term pressure. While officials still expect a gradual return to 2%, geopolitical risks could delay progress.

Investors will turn their attention to tomorrow's release of the February PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%), the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. While today's temporary ceasefire sparked a broad relief rally, focus now shifts to the path toward a more durable resolution-particularly the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which would help alleviate pressure on oil prices and the resulting inflation concerns.

U.S. Treasuries finished Wednesday with solid gains across the curve, though intraday action saw a steady retreat from opening highs. The 2-year note yield settled down four basis points to 3.79%, and the 10-year note yield settled down five basis points to 4.29%. 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +6.6% YTD
• Russell 2000: +5.6% YTD
• DJIA: -0.3% YTD
• S&P 500: -0.9% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -2.6% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -0.8%; Prior -10.4%