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Updated: 03-May-24 09:06 ET
Options Volatility Analysis Ahead of Earnings: LRN seeing high relative volatility

[BRIEFING.COM] - Since the options market acts as a good gauge of expected future stock movement, this Special Report highlights select stocks of interest that are expected to show increased volatility around their earnings releases. While it is not a big surprise that stocks are expected to experience greater volatility around their earnings releases, this report is intended to give an idea of how the expected volatility in these names ranks in comparison to their historical volatility (actual observed movement in the past) and point out some stocks that could see increased volatility.

The table below uses options market implied volatility to determine the current expectations for a potential one-day move in the stock (based on a one standard deviation move). We'd note that a stock can be expected to remain within a one standard deviation range about 2/3 (67%) of the time and to remain within a two standard deviation range roughly 95% of the time. The historical volatility helps give an idea of how the stock has acted over the past 30 days and we provide a column showing the 1-day (1 std dev) move based on historical volatility. The percentage difference in implied volatility vs. historical volatility gives an idea of current volatility expectations compared to past (actual) stock movement. The stocks in the table below are sorted by largest anticipated one-day event percentage move to smallest expected move, then by the percentage difference between the implied and historical volatility.

Looking at next week's earnings calendar, names that jump out that have high implied volatility vs historical volatility include LRN. This implies elevated expectations for near-term stock movement in these names.

The table below summarizes options market expectations for volatility in select stocks reporting earnings next week. 

  Stock Price Implied volatility **Historical volatility % Difference between implied and historical vol 1-day move based event volatility* 1-day event volatility* Time
Mon CALX $29.58 61% 26% 137% $3.23 11% After Close
MEDP $371.72 55% 24% 129% $37.17 10% After Close
CLF $20.86 48% 31% 56% $1.61 8% After Close
PNFP $79.13 36% 29% 24% $5.95 8% After Close
  AZZ $75.66 39% 34% 16% $6.24 8% Before Open
  ZION $39.58 46% 32% 45% $2.67 7% Before Open
  CDNS $283.82 38% 27% 40% $16.33 6% After Close
  SSD $183.57 37% 28% 36% $11.41 6% After Close
  BOH $57.52 37% 30% 25% $3.44 6% Before Open
  CR $129.40 35% 29% 22% $7.89 6% After Close
  AMP $414.75 26% 15% 77% $19.06 5% After Close
  NUE $190.63 31% 18% 71% $8.60 5% After Close
  AGNC $9.13 29% 21% 41% $0.42 5% After Close
  TFC $36.42 33% 28% 19% $1.67 5% Before Open
  ARE $117.89 31% 29% 7% $5.33 5% After Close
  HXL $61.62 31% 42% -25% $3.10 5% After Close
  PKG $179.02 26% 14% 83% $7.88 4% After Close
  BRO $81.53 24% 14% 75% $3.56 4% After Close
  VZ $40.36 25% 15% 64% $1.81 4% Before Open
                 
Tues IVZ $15.47 56% 28% 101% $2.12 14% Before Open
ENPH $108.90 84% 60% 40% $15.67 14% After Close
VICR $34.42 75% 33% 126% $4.52 13% After Close
LRN $57.19 57% 15% 281% $6.43 11% After Close
  JBLU $7.17 69% 45% 54% $0.74 10% Before Open
  SPOT $276.77 54% 38% 43% $26.49 10% Before Open
  HA $12.94 35% 19% 86% $1.12 9% After Close
  TSLA $150.15 62% 46% 34% $13.86 9% After Close
  BANC $13.91 38% 33% 17% $1.29 9% Before Open
  MANH $230.96 39% 22% 76% $16.23 7% After Close
  OPCH $31.35 43% 26% 62% $2.33 7% Before Open
  ZWS $31.63 34% 22% 53% $2.20 7% After Close
  STX $83.78 43% 31% 40% $6.08 7% After Close
  PII $86.90 39% 28% 38% $5.74 7% Before Open
  NEP $27.38 48% 36% 31% $1.98 7% Before Open
  CSGP $84.39 38% 39% -2% $5.62 7% After Close
  HRI $149.85 44% 26% 65% $8.29 6% Before Open
  MAT $18.18 37% 23% 61% $1.13 6% After Close
  MTDR $65.40 37% 25% 51% $3.71 6% After Close
  NTB $31.08 31% 21% 48% $1.82 6% After Close
  GM $42.91 36% 25% 44% $2.56 6% Before Open
  KREF $9.70 36% 27% 34% $0.55 6% After Close
  UPS $143.85 31% 32% 0% $7.93 6% Before Open
  DHR $236.01 28% 16% 76% $11.24 5% Before Open
  RTX $101.99 24% 14% 74% $4.60 5% Before Open
  VLTO $89.28 29% 18% 66% $4.10 5% After Close
  FI $147.34 26% 16% 65% $6.76 5% Before Open
  STLD $136.89 34% 22% 58% $6.66 5% After Close
  PNR $78.80 30% 20% 47% $4.00 5% Before Open
  EWBC $72.18 33% 23% 41% $3.95 5% Before Open
  TXN $163.86 33% 24% 35% $8.97 5% After Close
  WBS $45.77 31% 24% 33% $2.30 5% Before Open
  R $108.22 32% 25% 28% $5.36 5% Before Open
  PHM $107.18 38% 31% 21% $5.81 5% Before Open
  FCX $50.94 39% 33% 19% $2.72 5% Before Open
  EQT $36.46 35% 31% 12% $1.77 5% After Close
  HIW $24.17 31% 32% -1% $1.14 5% After Close
  GE $150.93 34% 82% -59% $8.20 5% Before Open
  LMT $462.11 22% 12% 92% $18.21 4% Before Open
  RRC $35.25 32% 18% 76% $1.55 4% After Close
  V $269.26 23% 13% 72% $11.02 4% After Close
  BKR $32.68 29% 18% 60% $1.36 4% After Close
  LKQ $48.71 25% 17% 54% $2.15 4% Before Open
  CB $247.71 21% 14% 53% $9.62 4% After Close
  DGX $127.06 25% 16% 53% $5.44 4% Before Open
  WRB $81.81 24% 16% 49% $3.38 4% Before Open
  HAL $39.10 31% 22% 46% $1.75 4% Before Open
  NVS $93.52 22% 16% 35% $3.78 4% Before Open
  KMB $125.47 19% 15% 34% $4.64 4% Before Open
  PM $92.14 22% 16% 32% $3.76 4% Before Open
  MSCI $506.95 30% 23% 28% $22.21 4% Before Open
  APAM $42.64 30% 26% 17% $1.81 4% After Close
  NEE $64.07 28% 26% 9% $2.79 4% Before Open
  EQR $61.73 23% 23% 2% $2.36 4% After Close
  PEP $172.34 19% 15% 23% $5.94 3% Before Open
  FBP $16.74 29% 25% 15% $0.24 1% Before Open
                 
Wed CYH $2.88 167% 63% 167% $0.90 31% After Close
SNBR $13.95 107% 67% 61% $2.46 18% After Close
PI $119.80 78% 42% 85% $16.72 14% After Close
PEGA $58.28 65% 24% 168% $7.65 13% After Close
  QS $5.43 82% 51% 62% $0.70 13% After Close
  MXL $20.21 76% 50% 52% $2.39 12% After Close
  VRT $76.68 75% 50% 50% $9.55 12% Before Open
  ALGN $301.49 60% 29% 107% $33.38 11% After Close
  CNMD $71.83 50% 40% 28% $8.13 11% After Close
  HELE $98.28 54% 29% 88% $9.36 10% Before Open
  OII $22.47 52% 31% 68% $2.25 10% After Close
  NBR $77.66 63% 42% 49% $8.13 10% After Close
  HAS $55.19 47% 22% 118% $5.06 9% Before Open
  PRG $31.58 53% 25% 111% $2.86 9% Before Open
  META $488.03 50% 29% 71% $42.81 9% After Close
  ETD $31.63 42% 25% 68% $2.72 9% After Close
  EDU $85.19 57% 34% 67% $7.47 9% Before Open
  SLAB $116.09 56% 40% 38% $10.05 9% Before Open
  WNC $25.34 51% 36% 40% $2.14 8% Before Open
  SFNC $18.06 42% 35% 21% $1.41 8% Before Open
  BMRN $89.73 36% 15% 144% $6.31 7% After Close
  CSTM $20.91 41% 27% 53% $1.47 7% Before Open
  NOW $715.23 43% 31% 40% $52.22 7% After Close
  MTH $152.35 42% 35% 18% $10.05 7% After Close
  F $12.15 39% 34% 15% $0.81 7% After Close
  CMG $2,883.37 35% 18% 98% $186.01 6% After Close
  IBM $182.13 33% 18% 87% $11.40 6% After Close
  SLM $21.14 37% 21% 81% $1.36 6% After Close
  ICLR $290.47 37% 21% 79% $18.14 6% After Close
  TX $42.82 34% 19% 77% $2.56 6% After Close
  URI $630.99 42% 24% 75% $38.55 6% After Close
  COOP $77.22 35% 21% 71% $4.54 6% Before Open
  BIIB $190.76 39% 23% 65% $11.46 6% Before Open
  VIRT $20.86 37% 23% 58% $1.22 6% Before Open
  MAS $72.36 32% 21% 50% $3.98 6% Before Open
  WU $13.02 29% 20% 44% $0.80 6% After Close
  LAD $261.16 39% 27% 43% $15.10 6% Before Open
  BA $171.36 37% 26% 39% $9.47 6% Before Open
  UHS $155.93 35% 25% 37% $9.40 6% After Close
  SYF $41.57 37% 27% 35% $2.41 6% Before Open
  OC $161.08 34% 25% 34% $9.12 6% Before Open
  CHDN $119.65 36% 28% 29% $7.09 6% After Close
  LRCX $881.89 42% 33% 26% $49.88 6% After Close
  ODFL $210.37 37% 30% 25% $11.68 6% Before Open
  MOH $364.55 32% 27% 22% $20.23 6% After Close
  FTV $80.11 25% 13% 92% $3.70 5% Before Open
  T $16.40 27% 15% 79% $0.80 5% Before Open
  ROL $42.32 29% 16% 78% $2.17 5% After Close
  TMO $542.90 29% 17% 73% $28.08 5% Before Open
  APH $110.92 28% 17% 66% $5.54 5% Before Open
  AR $29.19 39% 24% 62% $1.49 5% After Close
  IPG $30.60 30% 20% 49% $1.56 5% Before Open
  ORLY $1,096.70 27% 18% 48% $50.08 5% After Close
  TEL $140.39 28% 19% 46% $6.77 5% Before Open
  EVR $187.02 30% 21% 41% $8.91 5% Before Open
  BXMT $18.43 32% 24% 31% $0.84 5% Before Open
  KNX $48.06 32% 29% 11% $2.18 5% After Close
  WM $206.21 21% 9% 139% $8.23 4% After Close
  CACI $366.16 24% 14% 74% $16.08 4% After Close
  AVY $211.18 26% 15% 69% $9.32 4% Before Open
  HLT $197.63 25% 16% 60% $7.80 4% Before Open
  WAB $145.29 23% 15% 57% $5.78 4% Before Open
  TNL $43.80 31% 20% 55% $1.82 4% Before Open
  TYL $401.72 28% 18% 54% $17.44 4% After Close
  BG $108.82 27% 18% 52% $4.72 4% Before Open
  BSX $67.65 25% 16% 52% $2.96 4% Before Open
  GD $288.50 20% 13% 51% $10.47 4% Before Open
  NSC $242.65 28% 19% 49% $10.39 4% Before Open
  OTIS $95.93 21% 15% 38% $3.64 4% Before Open
  WH $69.32 24% 20% 23% $2.69 4% After Close
  EHC $78.90 24% 26% -8% $3.17 4% After Close
  CHX $35.56 32% 35% -11% $1.59 4% After Close
  HUM $328.16 30% 45% -32% $14.05 4% Before Open
  NAVI $16.48 33% 25% 33% $0.57 3% Before Open
  AM $13.98 21% 17% 24% $0.45 3% After Close
  CME $211.60 21% 18% 20% $7.29 3% Before Open
  ETR $105.17 16% 15% 5% $2.26 2% Before Open
                 
Thurs SNAP $11.69 108% 47% 129% $2.51 21% After Close
ROKU $57.71 82% 27% 209% $8.09 14% After Close
HTZ $5.89 79% 57% 39% $0.81 14% Before Open
ACCD $9.41 84% 49% 70% $1.21 13% After Close
  SAGE $13.33 88% 74% 19% $1.72 13% Before Open
  NRDS $13.60 77% 36% 113% $1.70 12% After Close
  TEAM $192.27 63% 41% 54% $21.35 11% After Close
  SAM $287.40 49% 23% 115% $28.05 10% After Close
  MBLY $30.86 62% 40% 52% $2.94 10% Before Open
  APPF $209.44 51% 36% 40% $19.33 9% After Close
  FCN $210.26 42% 15% 186% $16.99 8% Before Open
  SKX $56.55 42% 20% 109% $4.52 8% After Close
  HOG $38.16 45% 27% 67% $3.01 8% Before Open
  KNSL $453.11 46% 35% 31% $35.72 8% After Close
  BFH $34.34 57% 48% 20% $2.89 8% Before Open
  COLB $18.02 39% 33% 16% $1.38 8% After Close
  ADT $6.16 45% 49% -8% $0.52 8% Before Open
  RES $7.93 46% 23% 102% $0.52 7% Before Open
  TRU $67.03 44% 27% 60% $4.50 7% Before Open
  GOOG $155.84 37% 23% 59% $10.36 7% After Close
  PTCT $24.97 68% 44% 55% $1.63 7% After Close
  DXCM $133.40 45% 30% 48% $9.32 7% After Close
  RCL $128.74 45% 31% 45% $9.44 7% Before Open
  MHK $109.34 43% 31% 37% $7.94 7% After Close
  WDC $67.97 50% 36% 37% $5.07 7% After Close
  EW $86.26 37% 28% 33% $5.70 7% After Close
  RMD $178.62 41% 34% 21% $12.64 7% After Close
  INTC $34.63 44% 42% 4% $2.38 7% After Close
  ALSN $79.03 33% 13% 147% $4.82 6% After Close
  WEX $230.35 31% 15% 111% $14.10 6% Before Open
  CHKP $157.38 30% 14% 104% $8.70 6% Before Open
  TS $37.93 32% 17% 92% $2.17 6% After Close
  SKYW $68.74 45% 24% 87% $4.31 6% After Close
  CAT $356.67 36% 21% 73% $22.42 6% Before Open
  EME $333.37 36% 22% 66% $20.63 6% Before Open
  TEX $59.81 39% 24% 64% $3.48 6% After Close
  VC $107.85 40% 26% 56% $6.59 6% Before Open
  OSK $117.79 33% 22% 53% $6.81 6% Before Open
  OLN $53.46 37% 25% 52% $3.33 6% After Close
  IMAX $17.08 40% 30% 36% $1.02 6% Before Open
  WST $375.94 37% 27% 36% $23.39 6% Before Open
  FTAI $68.81 43% 34% 26% $4.22 6% After Close
  POOL $363.69 35% 28% 26% $20.31 6% Before Open
  KLAC $639.04 40% 32% 25% $35.86 6% After Close
  STM $39.31 39% 32% 24% $2.31 6% Before Open
  BC $83.55 36% 30% 20% $4.96 6% Before Open
  LUV $29.55 40% 54% -25% $1.86 6% Before Open
  TXT $93.25 25% 12% 105% $4.24 5% Before Open
  RS $319.36 29% 14% 104% $16.54 5% Before Open
  WTW $264.49 25% 13% 87% $12.60 5% Before Open
  SSNC $60.32 27% 16% 71% $3.07 5% After Close
  CFR $110.40 33% 20% 67% $5.62 5% Before Open
  TSCO $251.37 31% 19% 63% $13.25 5% Before Open
  AIT $183.81 29% 18% 61% $9.53 5% Before Open
  AOS $86.86 27% 17% 61% $4.20 5% Before Open
  MSFT $400.20 31% 19% 59% $21.02 5% After Close
  CNX $23.98 32% 21% 55% $1.11 5% Before Open
  CINF $118.86 27% 18% 49% $5.59 5% After Close
  KDP $31.25 24% 16% 47% $1.44 5% Before Open
  GWW $937.78 28% 19% 46% $46.73 5% Before Open
  HIG $98.14 25% 18% 41% $4.42 5% After Close
  BMY $48.44 28% 20% 41% $2.25 5% Before Open
  CSL $367.58 31% 22% 40% $19.59 5% After Close
  FTI $25.22 39% 28% 40% $1.36 5% Before Open
  CARR $53.96 35% 25% 38% $2.96 5% Before Open
  COF $144.15 33% 26% 29% $7.50 5% After Close
  VLO $164.82 34% 28% 22% $7.67 5% Before Open
  TPH $35.07 36% 31% 19% $1.83 5% Before Open
  ABG $213.14 34% 31% 12% $11.33 5% Before Open
  DOC $18.19 25% 26% -3% $0.85 5% After Close
  AB $32.83 19% 21% -9% $1.55 5% After Close
  AMBP $3.43 30% 35% -14% $0.19 5% Before Open
  IP $35.40 31% 44% -31% $1.79 5% Before Open
  TMUS $161.64 20% 9% 134% $6.06 4% After Close
  NOC $457.19 23% 12% 85% $18.73 4% Before Open
  UNP $231.63 23% 13% 77% $9.09 4% Before Open
  SPGI $411.61 25% 14% 75% $17.13 4% Before Open
  VRSN $184.35 25% 14% 74% $7.79 4% After Close
  LHX $204.15 25% 15% 71% $9.04 4% After Close
  LH $199.85 25% 15% 70% $8.68 4% Before Open
  AZN $68.54 25% 15% 70% $3.01 4% Before Open
  TW $101.11 29% 18% 62% $4.55 4% Before Open
  DOW $56.78 25% 15% 60% $2.27 4% Before Open
  NOV $18.67 36% 23% 57% $0.77 4% After Close
  GILD $66.58 26% 17% 52% $2.86 4% After Close
  PFG $80.05 26% 17% 50% $3.33 4% After Close
  SNY $46.17 24% 16% 45% $1.72 4% Before Open
  HON $193.74 22% 16% 44% $8.03 4% Before Open
  PCG $16.70 24% 19% 28% $0.60 4% Before Open
  MRK $125.11 22% 18% 24% $4.91 4% Before Open
  XEL $54.18 26% 21% 23% $2.11 4% Before Open
  EMN $96.84 27% 22% 22% $3.93 4% After Close
  WY $31.38 25% 20% 22% $1.15 4% After Close
  AVB $183.99 22% 19% 17% $6.91 4% After Close
  NDAQ $60.26 25% 24% 6% $2.49 4% Before Open
  DOV $169.70 22% 15% 44% $5.57 3% Before Open
  AJG $235.32 21% 16% 36% $8.00 3% After Close
  FE $38.05 18% 14% 28% $1.10 3% After Close
  VLY $7.47 51% 44% 15% $0.19 3% Before Open
  MO $41.71 20% 20% -2% $1.43 3% Before Open
  DTE $107.49 19% 21% -9% $3.02 3% Before Open
  GLPI $42.60 19% 22% -14% $1.31 3% After Close
  HES $154.03 28% 17% 68% $2.91 2% Before Open
  CMS $59.10 16% 17% -3% $1.10 2% Before Open
  CUBE $42.14 24% 30% -22% $1.02 2% After Close
  JNPR $36.18 17% 8% 112% $0.18 0% After Close
                 
Fri XOM $120.50 24% 13% 87% $4.43 4% Before Open
CVX $160.05 23% 12% 83% $5.47 3% Before Open
ABBV $165.49 25% 22% 11% $7.44 4% Before Open
CL $86.70 18% 10% 76% $3.04 4% Before Open
  AVTR $24.14 38% 21% 77% $1.53 6% Before Open
  CHTR $263.43 52% 28% 86% $22.03 8% Before Open
  BALL $64.86 33% 14% 134% $3.68 6% Before Open
  CNC $74.15 28% 29% -4% $3.32 4% Before Open
  TROW $109.28 29% 23% 24% $4.76 4% Before Open
  HCA $303.85 35% 20% 72% $19.74 6% Before Open
  EAF $1.52 89% 93% -5% $0.33 22% Before Open
  AN $153.66 40% 26% 52% $9.60 6% Before Open
  ROP $530.35 21% 13% 57% $18.93 4% Before Open
  POR $42.36 24% 20% 20% $1.27 3% Before Open
  GNTX $33.69 27% 14% 89% $1.62 5% Before Open
  SAIA $522.54 50% 29% 72% $41.09 8% Before Open
  ALV $115.17 30% 19% 60% $5.74 5% Before Open
  TNET $129.13 36% 21% 74% $7.88 6% Before Open
  B $36.22 44% 39% 13% $2.79 8% Before Open

Data Source: LiveVolPro (www.livevolpro.com)

We'd note these expectations are subject to change in the days leading up to the actual earnings release. Additionally, there may be factors other than earnings driving volatility levels.

--Column originally published on Apr. 19, 2024, by Carmine Atteo - Briefing.com


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