Updated: 10-Nov-26 09:23 ET

October CPI

Updated: 10-Nov-26 09:23 ET

Highlights

• Total CPI increased 0.4% month-over-month in October (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%).
• Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, jumped 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%).
• The BLS didn't provide a year-over-year reading due to the lack of data last October that resulted from the government shutdown.

Key Factors

• The food index was up 0.5% month-over-month.
• The energy index was up 0.7% month-over-month.
• The shelter index was up 0.3% month-over-month.
• The services index was up 0.4% month-over-month.
• The all items index less food, shelter, and energy was up 0.3% month-over-month.
• Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from September to October.

Big Picture

• The key takeaway from the report is that inflation is not settling in a manner that is going to satisfy the Federal Reserve. This report will solidify the outlook for at least a 25-basis point increase in the target range for the fed funds rate at the December meeting to 4.00-4.25%. There will be some concern, too, that a 50-basis point increase might be in play, knowing that Fed Governor Waller (FOMC voter) said in front of the report that "more robust action" may be needed if inflation is substantially higher than expected.

Category	OCT	SEP	AUG	JUL	JUN
All Items	0.4%	0.6%	0.4%	0.1%	-0.4%
Food and Beverages	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Housing	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
Equivalent Rent	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%
Apparel	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	-0.6%
Transportation	0.3%	2.5%	1.2%	-0.5%	-2.5%
Vehicles	-0.5%	0.5%	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%
Motor Fuel	1.0%	9.1%	3.9%	-2.9%	-9.7%
Medical Care	0.3%	0.1%	-0.2%	0.4%	-0.1%
Educ and Commun	0.1%	0.2%	1.6%	0.6%	-0.8%
Special Indices
Core	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%
Energy	0.7%	5.2%	2.1%	-1.5%	-5.7%
Services	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%