Updated: 05-Apr-24 09:28 ET
|
|
Updated: 05-Apr-24 09:28 ET |
|
Highlights
- The headlines from the March employment report were all good economically speaking. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 303,000, the unemployment rate dipped to 3.8%, average hourly earnings were up 0.3%, and the average workweek increased to 34.4 hours.
Key Factors
- March nonfarm payrolls increased by 303,000 (Briefing.com consensus 200,000). The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls increased to 276,000 from 272,000. February nonfarm payrolls revised to 270,000 from 275,000. January nonfarm payrolls revised to 256,000 from 229,000.
- March private sector payrolls increased by 232,000 (Briefing.com consensus 160,000). February private sector payrolls revised to 207,000 from 223,000. January private sector payrolls revised to 196,000 from 177,000.
- March unemployment rate was 3.8% (Briefing.com consensus 3.8%), versus 3.9% in February. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 19.5% of the unemployed versus 18.7% in February. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, held steady at 7.3%.
- March average hourly earnings were up 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) versus an upwardly revised 0.2% (from 0.1%) in February. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 4.1%, versus 4.3% for the 12 months ending in February.
- The average workweek in March was 34.4 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.3), versus 34.3 hours in February. Manufacturing workweek was unchanged at 40.0 hours. Factory overtime decreased 0.1 hour to 2.9 hours.
- The labor force participation rate increased to 62.7% from 62.5% in February.
- The employment-population ratio increased to 60.3% from 60.1% in February.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is that it continued to support a solid earnings growth outlook even if it didn't necessarily support the outlook for the Fed to cut rates soon.
Category |
MAR |
FEB |
JAN |
DEC |
NOV |
Establishment Survey |
|
|
|
|
|
Nonfarm Payrolls |
303K |
270K |
256K |
290K |
182K |
Goods-Producing |
42K |
17K |
30K |
33K |
36K |
Construction |
39K |
26K |
26K |
18K |
15K |
Manufacturing |
0K |
-10K |
6K |
12K |
25K |
Service-Providing |
190K |
190K |
166K |
181K |
116K |
Retail Trade |
18K |
23K |
17K |
32K |
-43K |
Financial |
3K |
-6K |
-4K |
6K |
4K |
Business |
7K |
17K |
48K |
13K |
10K |
Temporary help |
-1K |
-12K |
8K |
-21K |
-14K |
Education/Health |
88K |
82K |
100K |
84K |
110K |
Leisure/Hospitality |
49K |
43K |
-3K |
41K |
10K |
Government |
71K |
63K |
60K |
76K |
30K |
Average Workweek |
34.4 |
34.3 |
34.2 |
34.4 |
34.4 |
Production Workweek |
33.9 |
33.8 |
33.6 |
33.8 |
33.7 |
Factory Overtime |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
Aggregate Hours Index |
0.5% |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Avg Hourly Earnings |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Household Survey |
|
|
|
|
|
Household Survey |
|
|
|
|
|
Civilian Unemp. Rate |
3.8% |
3.9% |
3.7% |
3.7% |
3.7% |
Civilian Labor Force |
469K |
150K |
-175K |
-676K |
404K |
Civilian Employed |
498K |
-184K |
-31K |
-683K |
586K |
Civilian Unemployed |
-29K |
334K |
-144K |
6K |
-181K |