Updated: 04-Apr-25 09:14 ET
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Updated: 04-Apr-25 09:14 ET |
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Highlights
- The March employment report sent a positive signal about the recent state of the labor market as nonfarm payroll growth accelerated to 228,000 and average hourly earnings grew an in-line 0.3%.
- On the downside, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1% in February as labor force participation improved, and the report featured notable downward revisions to growth figures for January and February.
Key Factors
- March nonfarm payrolls increased by 228,000 (Briefing.com consensus 130,000). The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls decreased to 152,000 from 200,000. February nonfarm payrolls revised to 117,000 from 151,000. January nonfarm payrolls revised to 111,000 from 125,000.
- March private sector payrolls increased by 209,000 (Briefing.com consensus 120,000). February private sector payrolls revised to 116,000 from 140,000. January private sector payrolls revised to 79,000 from 81,000.
- March unemployment rate was 4.2% (Briefing.com consensus 4.1%), versus 4.1% in February. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 22.1% of the unemployed versus 20.2% in February. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, decreased to 7.9% from 8.4%.
- March average hourly earnings were up 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) versus 0.2% in February. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 3.8%, versus 4.0% for the 12 months ending in February.
- The average workweek in March was 34.2 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.1), unchanged from the upwardly revised 34.2 hours (from 34.1 hours) in February. Manufacturing workweek increased to 40.2 hours from 40.1 hours. Factory overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours.
- The labor force participation rate ticked up to 62.5% from 62.4% in February.
- The employment-population ratio remained at 59.9%.
Big Picture
- The key takeaway from the report is that positive results for March are being somewhat offset by downward revisions to figures from January and February, so on balance, the report is unlikely to alter the Fed's view of the current state of the labor market.
Category |
MAR |
FEB |
JAN |
DEC |
NOV |
Establishment Survey |
|
|
|
|
|
Nonfarm Payrolls |
228K |
117K |
111K |
323K |
261K |
Goods-Producing |
12K |
26K |
-11K |
4K |
28K |
Construction |
13K |
14K |
-3K |
15K |
6K |
Manufacturing |
1K |
8K |
-5K |
-10K |
20K |
Service-Providing |
197K |
90K |
90K |
283K |
216K |
Retail Trade |
24K |
-2K |
36K |
34K |
-14K |
Financial |
9K |
16K |
14K |
12K |
16K |
Business |
3K |
7K |
-35K |
36K |
37K |
Temporary help |
-6K |
-10K |
-8K |
2K |
30K |
Education/Health |
77K |
60K |
62K |
83K |
73K |
Leisure/Hospitality |
43K |
-17K |
-14K |
47K |
54K |
Government |
19K |
1K |
32K |
36K |
17K |
Average Workweek |
34.2 |
34.2 |
34.1 |
34.2 |
34.3 |
Production Workweek |
33.8 |
33.6 |
33.6 |
33.7 |
33.6 |
Factory Overtime |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
Aggregate Hours Index |
0.2% |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
0.2% |
Avg Hourly Earnings |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
Household Survey |
|
|
|
|
|
Household Survey |
|
|
|
|
|
Civilian Unemp. Rate |
|
4.1% |
4.0% |
4.1% |
4.2% |
Civilian Labor Force |
|
-385K |
2197K |
243K |
-124K |
Civilian Employed |
|
-588K |
2234K |
478K |
-273K |
Civilian Unemployed |
|
203K |
-37K |
-235K |
149K |