Briefing.com: Nonfarm Payrolls

Updated: 06-Nov-26 09:21 ET

October Nonfarm Payrolls

Updated: 06-Nov-26 09:21 ET

Highlights

The October employment report left the market in a mixed state of emotion after its release. The good news is that the nonfarm payrolls increase of 165,000 was stronger than expected, the 4.1% unemployment rate was lower than expected, and the 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings was higher than expected.
The bad news is that the 3.1% year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings is below the latest CPI and PCE inflation rates of 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively, so workers' wages are not keeping up with inflation.

Key Factors

October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 65,000). The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls increased to 137,000 from 79,000. September nonfarm payrolls revised to 60,000 from 29,000. August nonfarm payrolls revised to 186,000 from 133,000.
October private sector payrolls increased by 159,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 50,000). September private sector payrolls revised to 78,000 from 46,000. August private sector payrolls revised to 142,000 from 89,000.
October unemployment rate was 4.1% (Briefing.com consensus: 4.2%) versus 4.2% in September. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 27.6% of the unemployed versus 27.1% in September. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, increased to 7.9% from 7.6% in September.
October average hourly earnings were up 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) on the heels of an upwardly revised 0.3% increase (from 0.1%) in September. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 3.1% versus 3.2% for the 12 months ending in September.
The average workweek in October was 34.4 hours (Briefing.com consensus: 34.4) versus 34.4 hours in September. The manufacturing workweek was unchanged at 40.5 hours. Factory overtime increased 0.1 hour to 3.1 hours.
The labor force participation rate increased to 61.9% from 61.8% in September.
The employment-population ratio increased to 59.3% from 59.2% in September.

Big Picture

The key takeaway from the report that is contributing to the mixed view surrounding it is that it was strong enough to keep a December rate hike by the Fed on the table.